jj shouldve won the mvp in 2014 he rwally should have. he carried that awful texans team man i remember talking with my friends on the playground about jj watt during this season losing his helmet during a double team and just pushes thru and gets a sack it genuinely was like watching a superhero for kids in Houston
Imo, JJ Watt and Aaron Donald are the most impactful defensive players ever. Watts stats speak for themselves but Donald having those stats at the D tackle position is insane and literally destroyed offensive lines single handedly by that interior pressure. He basically had to be triple teamed in the interior so it completely changed everything about your offensive scheme
This is, for the most part, a great way to measure defensive production. But I think what it lacks is an acknowledgement of the fact that defense isn't just statistics. For example, with Revis, his success was shown more by the stats of the receivers he faced. You can't get that many INTs if you aren't thrown to that much🤷♂️
Stumbled on to this, interesting concept. I wonder if there would be a way to modify the methodology to give players in the spine of the defense (DT, MLB, FS/SS) better representation as this seems to favor pass rushers significantly (and players like AD, Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, and Troy Polamalu have to factor in somewhere). Even more impressive about JJ Watt's years: He played much of his time in a 3-4 defense as a 5 technique defensive end, a position historically not designed to rush the passer and STILL put up numbers like that. Absolutely incredible. Great work.
Ran the math because I was curious: If I did everything right Antoine Winfield Jr. finished JUST behind Myles Garrett at 78.2, with 122 tackles, 12 passes defensed, eight quarterback hits, six sacks, six forced fumbles, four fumble recoveries and three interceptions, and as far as I can find, a 15 AV. If the score included goalzone touchbacks he would have edged him out!
Antoine winfield was a player I was excited to see if he could make this list because he literally did everything on a football field this past season, underrated for sure
the biggest issue with this list is it views all pass rushers as one position, 15+ sacks is significantly more impressive on the interior, a 3-4 edge rusher will usually have more sacks than a 4-3 of the same skill due to the difference in utilization creating less double teams etc., this is a great video but unfortunately the topic is too nuanced to be so mathematically simple.
It’s really hard to really do it this way because you have to account for impact and dominance. Some will have 2-4 sacks in a few games and then disappear in other games. Picks could be from blowouts and the QB throwing them are the back ups. Clutch plays have to be factor but that’s just impossible to calculate everything unless you put all your time into watching the snaps of everyone. Fun theory but there are too many variables.
This video could have been great, but it needs a stronger foundation. How did you arrive at valuing each statistic with a numeric value? I want to know what went into determining them.
@@wakaflockanateI get where you are coming from, but it wouldn’t matter honestly. You couldn’t unseat Watt’s impact on the game. Shutting down Randy moss is great and all, but shutting down the other teams quarterback is game over.
I really like the work you put in but I must say this: choosing the wieghts for the stats kind of defeats the purpose of the video Becuase then it’s using math in your opinion.
I’m just gonna say it TJ Watt should have 2 dpoys and a string argument for a 3rd JJ Watt was robbed of an MVP The watts may be the most robbed family in history
The media wanted to prop up myles garrett as an elite pass rusher but always disappears when it matters, tj got robbed and is the best defensive player in the league, hes the engine that makes the steelers win games, no defensive players matter as much to victories, tj is almost as valuable as an elite qb thats insane
@@LincolnSmith-dc5st he was incredible till week 11, the last 6 weeks he had 1 sack (against the god awful jets) and went ghost against the texans. Tj didnt have a 2 game stretch all year without at least half a sack lol, but if ya gotta reach in deep to find “pass rush win rate” and “double team%” so be it i guess😂
@@mikec2903 those are basic stats it's not some crazy "vorp" or "raptor" the dude didn't get the sacks but he was demolishing every single tackle he rushed. In the end tho they're on the same tier as being some of the best defensive players we've seen in years.
You shouldn’t be adding points for MVP votes DPOY and All pros. It skews the data when you award more points to people that already had good season. It even can make it look like someone that won the DPOY deserved it when they didn’t. Say one player finishes with 96 vs 100 points but the 96 point person wins DPOY it will look like he deserved it with 101 points. Also I’d prefer to see some sort of value out on actions based on how common they are or value in a game. Not just arbitrarily saying an int is worth only 2 compared to a pass sense is 1.5. Would you rather have 3 int or 4 pass defenses? Your scoring says they are equal when in reality you’d probably rather have one int than 4 pass defenses or maybe even more.
Quick not: at 5:30 I think that was javon Kearse (the freak) not Jayron kearse (2016 Vikings 7th round pick). Nice video! Would love to see a little bit more how you landed on the point totals other than just “this gives approximately the same score across positions” but a DT putting up similar numbers to a DE has to be worth something almost like it should be points above upper quartile from position group.
So I don't know if you're aware but some of these stats are double counting, e.g. a sack always goes down as a TFL, so 1 sack, 1 TFL does not mean two separate plays, but the same 1 play, being double counted Even if you disagree with Garrett as DPOY over e.g. TJ in '23 that's a totally reasonable view, but the primary arguments for Myles Garrett come from accounting for facing more double teams. It's like an invisible assist from eating up a blocker, much like NTs or 3-techs would presumably have if we could more accurately record defensive metrics. I think this is somewhat misleading because you present this as though it's conclusive, but for instance, a lockdown CB like Revis would score far worse than a boom or bust CB like Daron Bland, nor do these metrics account for era with decreasing picks, and increasing pass attempts (more opportunities for sacks). Enjoyed the concept, but think you could go a way further to talk about additional limitations.
Aaron Donalds highest score was in 2018 With 92.15, It was just difficult to put 25 names and years on the graphic so I only highlighted the players I talked about in the video
Great Video, but I can't agree with your conclusion. I will agree that JJ is the best defensive player in the past 30 years, but as far as defensive dominance on the football field, the conversation begins and ends with Lawrence Taylor, just like the receiver conversation begins and ends with Jerry Rice. (Obviously these are just my opinions, but I believe both positions have a lot of data for support). BTW, I think you did a great job of explaining why you needed to cut off the analysis at 25 years due to stats keeping limitations.
one thing this fails to account for is positional needs, tj is an olb and myles is a de, they play in different schemes with different jobs, tj drops into coverage way more than myles does, ofc hes gonna have more ints and passes defendd, overall tho a great video, basically the jxmyhighroller equivalent of football
The Garrett TJ comp. Is missing something very important. How many sacks, tackles, tfls were caused by Garrett that he didn't get while being double and triple teamed by offenses. Watt is great, but I've never seen him cause delay of games by simply standing up and walking back and forth.
Garrett is a stud, definitely a top 5 defensive player in the NFL right now, but the double team rate, triple team rate, and pass rush win rate are given way too much weight by Garrett supporters. Yes, Garrett does get double teamed/triple teamed more than Watt, and has a slightly better pass rush win rate, but his counting stats are so much worse. Garrett had one sack in the last seven games this past season. And I understand, he was hurt, but he had no business getting that DPOY when he was outside the top five in nearly every major statistical category for an edge. And ironically, Micah Parsons had a higher pass rush win rate and double team rate according to ESPN than Myles. Pass rush win rate and double team rate are important when discussing the best edge, but they’re only part of the puzzle, and when TJ leads in literally every other category he deserves to be considered the best edge rusher and defensive player last season
TJ watt ended 5 games on his own his DPOY year. Baker Mayfield was visibly shook and started flinching when Tj was around during a game in which TJ sacked him 4 times. Haven’t seen Garrett do anything like that
Sorry to say, But Aaron Donald is the best Defensive player ever in the past 25 years. His numbers were done by being double and triple teamed. JJ Watts was never Double, or triple teamed as much as AD was. If you take away JJ's last two years away from him and compare JJ's and AD's 10yrs number, AD blows him away. in most categories
@@jaydenmoyer1077snaps played does not equal durability. The browns defense forced more 3 and outs therefore defense was not on the field as much. It’s funny because Myles Garrett missed 0 games last year whereas tj watt missed 1. So you agree that Myles durability is better, therefore another pro for Myles.
@@jonathanvoge2418Same as saying Woodson was better than Revis. Revis saw significantly less targets because QBs knew you didn't throw the ball his way. You can't put up stats when the team is purposely scheming to take you out of the play.
and they don't do that for watt? So much stock is put in the double team rate which doesn't take chips into account when while tj watt does get a little less attention it is because he is able to play wider than garrett. My main argument for why i believe watt is better is that everybody agrees they are both top tier edge rushers and whether you put more stock in pff stats or counting stats will determine who you think the better pass rusher is. However, watt always has more pass deflections and is a threat to pick the ball off. He is way more disruptive in blocking passing lanes and affecting pass plays outside of the rush than garrett is.@jacobtracht2744
