Hey guys - At 6:47, Jared Goff had 0 interceptions. He had 1 sack. I copied down the stats wrong for my graphic. Thank you to those that called this out!
if you are an actual person doing football content and not AI, you should at least be able to pronounce the former football commissioner's name. Pete Rozelle is pronounced Roe-zell not Rozz-el. For names you are not familiar with, try looking up a couple of clips where that person is mentioned to find the proper pronunciation.
@@cxldblooded4307 I was making sure he didn't make that mistake again. Don't want to look foolish and keep mispronouncing one of the most famous names in football history.
As a former Madden player, playing it safe with high completion percentage and some amount of TDs with minimal INTs is the perfect mix to have a high QB rating but not actually doing much for winning. Which is basically how all these "game manager" QBs work in real life, cheating the rating system.
@@meh27143 this is so dumb what 😭a touchdown is a touchdown and a first down is a first down. It may not be as fun to watch but its not like they arent part of the reason their teams are winning.
I’ve been thinking in the past couple of years how garbage of a stat passer rating can be. I don’t look at it very much anymore because QBs (maybe Wilson) have learned how to cheat it
russ' passer rating is BS because he would hold on to the ball too long and get strip sacked constantly, but he'd go 10/14 with a tud and a couple deep throws.
@@coalfey Russ has led the league in passes Behind The Line Of Scrimmage 8for the past five _YEARS!_* People are trying to blame Payton for being impatient. They don't understand. Payton tweaked or completely revamped the career of 3 other QBs, nine of whom have had success without him. (Doug Pederson did this with two as well). He did all he could for Russ. The closest I've seen to someone trying to understand it said Payton resorted to calling mirror plays. These are passing plays where whatever is happening on the right is happening on the left. They suck because they're easy to defend. The person making that video failed to see *why* Payton called them. It's because of the throws BtLOS. Russ had been able to scramble around to where he could see the field. He's been losing that ability. He himself of course isn't measuring How Often he's doing it now compared to then, but _Payton saw_ this & identified it as The Problem. If Russ looks right & can see the receivers are covered & knows where the receivers on the left should be, "maybe he only needs to shuffle left to a vantage point instead of having to scramble because he knows in advance where to look for the receiver." *Without* this, Russ would panic & throw to his check-down. It's an effing close to genius solution if you ask me. There's two things falling out from all of this. Will the Steelers spot this problem in practices? There's a possibility they won't. Secondly, I can point to tons of things showing that Eberflus & Poles planned to oust Fields from day one & that Eberflus sabotaged him. _He_ might be a QB no ratings system can capture.
I created my own stat called “Era adjusted net yards per attempt” It doesn’t use completions and takes into account attempts, yards, touchdowns, interceptions, sacks, yards lost from sacks, first downs, and strength of schedule. It then outputs it as a percentage compared to the league average. So far, I have found that the 2004 Colts are the best in terms of this metric, while the 1977 Buccaneers are the worst. What’s nice is you can do the same for passing defenses too, except lower is better and higher is worse.
An incomplete pass would affect your yards/attempt as well as decreasing your completion percentage. An example where a QB could do something negatively for his team to maintain his passer rating would be taking a sack when he could have thrown the ball away, but didn't want to affect either his yards/attempt or completion percentage.
Going just by last year..... yeah... I'd say in only the 7 games browning started he was at least as good as Mahomes and love were last year. He completed 70% of his passes and projecting out his pace to over a full season he would've hit 4,000 yards, about 25-26 TDs, 14-15 INTs, 8 Y/A, and owned a 60 QBR. Love? 4100+ yards, 32 TDs, 11 INTs, 64 comp%, 7.2 Y/A, 62 QBR Mahomes? Just shy of 4200 yards, 27 TDs, 14 INTs, 67 comp%, 7 Y/A, and a 63 QBR. Browning was posting similar numbers to that. I
A weird consequence of how passer rating is calculated is that you can have two games, neither of which you get a 158.3 rating, but then when you combine both games to find your overall passer rating, you get the perfect 158.3
first comment hehe. In all seriousness, This was a great video and really put a good perspective on some of the flaws of passer rating! Been looking for a video that goes in depth about this topic in an easy fashion. I wish the NFL designed a formula for rushing and receiving yard ratings as well (I think some guy on reddit tried to do this).
Love the video. I think my only critique is the Goff 158.3 vs. Namath 158.3 can be seen as a bit nitpicky given how insane the difference in Attempts/Game in those eras is.
I think the only stat that is relevant throughout time is era+ in baseball were 100 is always average and anything over is above average and vice versa
They should consider adopting a statistic similar to ops+ and era+ in baseball which compares your stats to the league average for that year with 100 being the average
I had a metric using net yards per play (NY/P), TD% and turnover % (TO%) - I call it adjusted quarterback rating (AQBR). As I have it: * NY/P = (pass yards + rushing yards - sack yards)/(pass attempts + rush attempts + sacks) * TD% = (passing TDs + rushing TDs)/(pass attempts + rush attempts + sacks) * TO% = (INTs + fumbles lost)/(pass attempts + rush attempts + sacks) These give ANY/P = NY/P + 20 * TD% - 50 * TO%, and AQBR = 25/3 * (ANY/P - three-season rolling average ANY/P) + 50. It has a floor of zero and a ceiling of 100, with 50 representing an average QB and 75 representing an exceptional QB (OK, it's a 50 not 100 average, but you have something a lot better).
It is useful, but like all metrics, does not tell the whole story. You could get strip-sacked five times for five defensive TDs and still finish with a perfect passer rating. Plus, given the rule changes since the metric was created, the number generated no longer illustrates exceptional passing as well as it used to. When created, 100.0 was truly exceptional since it was much harder not to throw picks. 158.3 was like an alien number. (Namath doing that in 1967 was crazy.) Now 100.0 is just another very good game. And that's another thing (which you alluded to). Not all picks are equally bad. A fourth-down "arm punt" which has a potentially big payoff but is also less likely to get taken to the house by a defender (unless it's Ed Reed) is not as bad as a short check-down under duress on 1st and 10 that goes for a pick-six. Great video, you nailed it. I think one of the best things on Pro Football Reference is the "Adjusted Passing" section, as it shows performance relative to the competition, which is what really matters!
Ironic, Namath also had a 0.0 later in his career. Against the Bills, 2-18 3 ints. Also on the other end, Joe Ferguson only threw 2 passes (both incomplete) with OJ, and fullback Jim Baxton ran wild (I think it was OJs 2k season)
The point is surely that passer rating only tells you what it tells you - It is an aggregate measure, it is useless to look at a single game. It is ONLY a measure of passing success, and doesn't really include notions of decision making or offensive gameplan. It does not include any notion of down and distance, or offer any insight into why passing was successful. It doesn't care if your receivers are three clones of Randy Moss or three guys you met outside Lowe's while day drinking. And that's fine, because all stats only measure what they measure.
Thank you, I finally know (as an EU "looking at the game from afar and not that much" man) how passer rating is calculated. And yeah, I could smell rubish when you described it, you nailed even more downside as I thought off spontaneously => although to make it a QB rating I would need a differenciation between completed/catchable and screw up passes, as well as adding rushing in the list and a good dose of O-Line efficiency, for I firmly believe the role of QB is overated as hell (as if a 11-13 man offense could be reduced to 1 man).
PR is the only reason Russ Wilson still has a job. Being efficient is important, but it isn't the only thing. Better to combine and weigh every available metric.
No. Theres guys who stink for 3 quarters then light it up in garbage time for a 100 passer rating. QBR is better imo cuz it factors in situations like 3rd/4th downs, end of halves, and even rushing. Guys with really good QBR's tend to win.
@@LouisWinthorpe3 Yeah theres outliers and anomolies with any stat. Are you trying to make the case that passer rating is better? Cuz Rodgers was the king of passer rating manipulation. Im a lifelong Packer fan and I watched that prick throw hundreds of passes out of bounds rather than give one of his teammates a chance just so he could preserve his precious passer rating.
ANY/A is a better metric. It penalizes sacks and sack yards lost and doesn’t reward completion percentage giving you an accurate pitcher on your efficiency per drop back.
Any one stat u use to judge a QB is inherently flawed. I could say the same types of things with TDs, yards, or qbr. It weird to single out passer rating. It's foolish to pick any one number in a statline to sum up how good someone is.
I understand what you’re saying but that puts too much personal emotion into the ranking. That lets a person say a QB is top five even though their stats aren’t top five. What should also be considered, IMO, is how many times has that QB been to the Championship game and Super Bowl. Is a QB top five if they’ve never made it to a Championship game? Not in my opinion.
Pastor rating doesn't consider how many series of downs , ints, and other turnovers and or clock time saved by referee calls. And how many questionable calls are made on the spot of the ball to force a challenge or time out by opponent, None of that oddly enough
This video: Jared Goff gets a perfect passer rating while thrown Ng an interception. Also this video: A perfect passer rating requires 0 interceptions. Seem like you're as reliable as passer rating.
Lol I completely missed this while editing the video. He had 0 interceptions, but 1 sack, and I got confused while creating the graphic/recording the script. Good call out!
Going 20/25 250 yards and 3 touchdowns with 5 sacks and 30 yards would still yield a perfect passer rating. QBB goes 19/25 for 300 yards and 5 touchdown passes with zero sacks would have a lower rating despite having an objectively better game. Plug it into college footballs passer rating where there’s no cap and QB1 would have the highest rating
I get what you’re saying but we often confuse or blend different conversations together. QBR is good considering one season compared to the other stats. If we’re talking about top five QBs playing right now then you need to consider how many Championship games they’ve been to. If a QB has been in the league for ten years and consistently has top five stats but has never to the Championship game, not top five. Generally if a team in the playoffs doesn’t make it to the Championship game it’s because the QB threw a game ending interception or made a game ending mistake. Two examples this year. Jordan Love throws a game ending INT. Jared Goff scrambling under pressure throws a 20 yard pass across his body to a wide open receiver and misses by ten yards. The receiver had zero chance to catch the ball. The “eye test” says these guys crumble under the big lights so not top five. QBR is great during the season but the top QBs win in the playoffs, period.
"Gee, I wonder if there's A Reason he's showing only Baker Mayfield when talking about how the ratings system can be tweaked? Yes, *before this season* Baker did seem to be playing like he was aware of all this & how to make himself seem better than he was. A _LOT!_ But less this past year. _Much_ less.
Passer rating, not rusher rating. This rating system also comes from an era where intentional grounding and touching a quarterback were real things, u like today’s version of football where a quarterback is playing 2 hand touch
Very similar to a running back's yards per carry. It's very much a function of the supporting cast. It depends on how good the blocking is and how good the passing game that complements it is. You can have a good YPC, because of a few or several 3rd-and-long runs. YPC can also mislead you as to the overall effectiveness of the run game. Maybe you're only getting 3 ypc, but it's still enough - and you're stubborn enough about running - to give you a good play fake for the passing game. Cardinals with Curt Warner stuck with the run in spite of low ypc for that reason. Passer rating can be destroyed by WRs who drop the ball.
Its interesting you didn't use Josh Allen as an example for why passer rating is an overrated stat; you're on notice and your opinion has been compromised.
The passer rating, like every other stat, is a valid stat but imperfect. You cannot base everything on a few stats. You need to take into account EVERY stat
I think the real fault doesnt come from the stat itself but how its used. It is perfectly fine to use the stat for a game to summarize the passing performance of the game. The sports analysts should then interpret the data for the audience and explain the discrepancies that might be there. You cant have a perfect quartbacking stat. There is too much variance, from the person themselves to the players around them to the field conditions. It helps to have a simple stat in mind and look at the context around it on your own. Over time the simple stats will reflect the actual performance of the qb by way of volume.
I understand how VORP works better than I could describe passer rating or QBR. VORB is a basketball stat, I didn’t watch a single regular season game this year.
The real issue with Passer Rating are all of those Constants in the calculation. What are they representing? Also if those Constants came from that decade of stats then the Constants have to be recalculated every decade.
Passer rating is a fine metric, the problem is that most people who likes to use it, use it to make comparisons it you shouldn't use passer rating to make
I've always preferred QBR over Passer Rating. There's more that factors into it, and modern QBs are far more dynamic than just the handful of metrics in Passer Rating.
I don’t put much stock in QBR. Kirk Cousins earned a 32.9 against the Indianapolis Colts in the greatest comeback in NFL history (33 points) and considered Cousins’ second half performance (4 touchdown passes and 417 passing yards in the 2nd half ALONE which set an NFL record) as a product of “garbage time.” In ESPN’s QBR stat, plays are no longer up-weighted for clutch situations and winning the game. So, all of those fourth quarter comebacks in 2022 (eight of them which led the league) is the reason that his QBR was so low in 2022. A week before that, Matt Ryan had a QBR nearly double of Cousins when the Colts had a 54-19 blowout loss to the Cowboys. He passed for 233 yards, 2 TDs, and 3 INTs while completing just 56.8% of his passes. Ryan’s QBR at the end of that game was 54.4. ESPN's QBR system seems severely flawed if it believes Kirk Cousins played nearly twice as bad in Saturday’s victory as Matt Ryan played in the blowout loss against the Cowboys.
Look at EPA from ESPN QBR. It divides the credit and rewards volume. It had Mahomes 3rd last regular season and Purdy like 7th and Tua like 10th. It's way more reliable than rate stats or counting stats like yards which had Tua 1st.
Let me show y'all something more reliable. The eye-test. One of these QBs seems bent on Always Throwing pretty spirals, the other throws the ball lower, gets to his target quicker leaving the defense less time to adjust. Which is better? ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-5JO1PsupF_U.html. Now which is "considered" better?
@@ckq Oh, well, I'm sure that the kids in the schoolyard will be impressed by your tone of condescension. How does that system _work_ exactly? What does & doesn't it leave out? I was just making a point however of how we judge things regardless of stats _OR_ eye-test. Did you see the graph comparing T-L|aw & Dan Jones' 1st 50 games showing them to have almost identical numbers everywhere? What does this system say about how Jones ranked at the end of last season (50 games before this disastrous one) compared to T-Law's out of curiosity? Having stats that say "nearly identical" it would be fun to see what another system gets different. Come on, _play_ with the thing. If it says something different, would we know _why_ it got different results?
It’s strange that you used Mahomes to argue against rating when he is one who “cheats” it, considering that he plays in a dink and dunk offense and throws shovel pass tds from the one yard line so often.
Yeah, that must have really sucked for him when he was airing the ball out early in his career and had **checks notes** a _BETTER_ passer rating than he did this past season? That can't be right
