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Volatility Arbitrage - How does it work? - Options Trading Lessons 

Patrick Boyle
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What is Volatility Arbitrage?
Volatility arbitrage is a trading strategy that attempts to profit from the difference between the forecasted price-volatility of an asset, like a stock, and the implied volatility of options on that asset.
These classes are all based on the book Trading and Pricing Financial Derivatives, available on Amazon at this link. amzn.to/2WIoAL0
Check out our website www.onfinance.org/
Follow Patrick on twitter here: / patrickeboyle
How does Volatility Arbitrage Work?
The price of an option is driven by the volatility of the underlying asset. If the forecasted and implied volatilities differ, there will be a discrepancy between the expected price of the option and its actual market price.
A volatility arbitrage strategy can be implemented through a delta-neutral portfolio consisting of an option and its underlying asset. For example, if a trader thought a stock option was underpriced because implied volatility was too low, they may buy a call option and combine that with a short position in the underlying stock to profit from that forecast. If the price of the stock doesn't move, but the implied volatility used to price that option rises, then the price of the option will rise. Even if this does not get recognized by the market, but the stock realizes higher volatility than was implied in the initial price, the trading strategy explained in the video will generate a profit for the trader.
Alternatively, if the trader believes that implied volatility is too high and will fall, then they may decide to take a long position in the stock and a short position in a put option. Assuming the stock's price doesn't move, the trader may profit as the option falls in value with a decline in implied volatility.
There are several assumptions a trader must make, which will increase the complexity of a volatility arbitrage strategy. First, the investor must be right about whether implied volatility really is over- or underpriced. Second, the investor must be correct about the amount of time it will take for the strategy to profit or time value erosion could outpace any potential gains. Finally, if the price of the underlying stock moves more quickly than expected the strategy will have to be adjusted, which may be expensive or impossible depending on market conditions.

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10 мар 2019

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Комментарии : 85   
@Salah-qu4cs
@Salah-qu4cs 3 года назад
Man, I'm going back and watching your older videos. The filming and lighting is much better now. The content is still gold nonetheless.
@eventhorizon88
@eventhorizon88 Месяц назад
I prefer his older videos. Actually educational
@Maggarooni
@Maggarooni 2 года назад
Patrick RU-vid doesn't deserve you! You are by far the best resource for the inner workings of options in a manner retail can understand.
@dimitrivancamp1013
@dimitrivancamp1013 3 года назад
As a fellow options trader, I love how you approach the options markets from a solid mathematical perspective. Me and my friend, who is also an options trader, always laugh with the youtube videos about the "option educators" because they make one mistake after another, like saying that covered calls are better than naked puts not knowing they are synthetics or not understanding that delta changes in a nonlinear way or not understanding that it is more about EV than probability of profit (even though probability of profit changes the betting size) and so on. (In my experience, peaks in volatility are a sign of a strong uptrend or downtrend reversing, so my strategy is always to sell volatility in that strategy and have some delta in the opposite direction by reducing it but not eliminating it completely, work just the other day with the silver crazy, was long $12 calls and short $50 calls at a 1:4 ratio) Good job!
@G8tr1522
@G8tr1522 3 года назад
damn, good advice at the end. i was wondering how you could be delta neutral, but maybe have a directional bet on the side
@user-pc1qs3oy7q
@user-pc1qs3oy7q Год назад
@dimitrivancamp1013 can you please say where did you get your options education please, what recourses/courses or books did you use?
@dimitrivancamp1013
@dimitrivancamp1013 Год назад
@@user-pc1qs3oy7q Read books
@user-pc1qs3oy7q
@user-pc1qs3oy7q Год назад
@@dimitrivancamp1013 Okay, could you please share any books that stood out to you?
@dimitrivancamp1013
@dimitrivancamp1013 Год назад
@@user-pc1qs3oy7q The business of Options, Options trading & Volatility and all books by Jeff Augen
@siddharthgokhale9184
@siddharthgokhale9184 4 года назад
Great series, thanks for making
@vgrooveman7739
@vgrooveman7739 2 года назад
Very awesome. Best channel period.
@ThioJoe
@ThioJoe 5 лет назад
Good explanation
@PBoyle
@PBoyle 4 года назад
Thanks for your comment. I love your channel too. Congrats on hitting 2 million subs. I'm still looking forward to hitting 1k.
@zimmylolly2119
@zimmylolly2119 3 года назад
Thio joe learning about vol arb, never knew he traded
@backtashhanif8191
@backtashhanif8191 2 года назад
excellent video, thanks a lot!
@sandhusukhdeep
@sandhusukhdeep 3 года назад
excellent videos! priceless.
@tonan88
@tonan88 3 года назад
EXCELLENT! I’ve been using RU-vid to (usually in vain) enhance my never-ending quest to better understand derivatives - and specifically options, how to determine the optimal trading strategies for the volatility regime, etc. I had plenty of calculus while at University and then an engineering career that actually required me to use it (not that it has given me as much “edge” as I initially imagined - when I discovered options - and that their pricing (in part) - is accomplished with probability-based price model... which is in the form of a very simple second-order differential equation. When I finally began to actively trade, I desperately tried to make it as complex as possible... but over time had to admit that consistent success was most easily obtained by excessively SIMPLIFYING everything (although I was dismayed to find out my Excel generated volatility surfaces... were, at best, unnecessary. In fact if truth br told - I probably spent the better part of two YEARS trying to (yes, I admit it) develop the Holy Grail - in the form of a STRATEGY (and the more complex the better!). Meanwhile - however, I WAS actively trading every day, of course recording my trade parameters - and of course the results. Finally I “consciously” realized what I had probably already known - on some level - for quite awhile. That simply by using standard strategies (which CAN be significantly tweaked and optimized - which also, of course are suitable for both current skew and volatility structure (all of which is pretty straight forward... it’s those random four, five, or evev SIX sigma marker moves, that keep us on our toes). And IN FACT, the way you survive those - is ALSO the way you succeed in general. Which of course is NOT typically a function of your strategy choice - but of your so-called Money Management plan. Of course this is nothing but 9th grade algebra and a little undergraduate statistics, but the efffects of different “plans” on what REALLY matters - your equity curve - is really hard to overstate. Also, once you get to that point where you are successful consistently, then you can also start to experiment using shpecific compounding approaches. I’m still often amazed at the potential outcomes - of even modest compounding - given that with options - making 5% of your total account - every WEEK - is nothing special (though risk management becomes critical. I apologize for the long-winded comment (and ALL of the typos - on a keyboard I can type almost as fast as I can think - but NOT SO on these tiny damn phones)... my point was primarily to thank you for this whole series on dynamic hedging - a concept thst I might have learned a bit too early in my education- as the math and overall mechanics was very clear - yet I’ve never actually used it because I’ve lacked a full “grasping” of the subject - and just knowing the steps to take does not give me enough comfort level to put skin in that game. So perhaps I wasn’t ready yet, or perhaps your VERY concise lecture ability - and teaching style is what mattered. Is that shameless pandering to win the book? No - for all I know the contest is over. If not I will wait and see - having a autographed version would be an excellent addition to the library. But if that’s not possible then for sure - I will purchase it. Thanks much, T.
@superhacker35
@superhacker35 3 года назад
You forgot to close brackets twice, im very confused. Please give it a third edit, thanks in advance
@marcgerges1380
@marcgerges1380 4 года назад
amazing work
@superhacker35
@superhacker35 3 года назад
Thats brilliant, would have been a great strategy during the crash and subsequent weeks in march
@ControlTheGuh
@ControlTheGuh 3 года назад
Lol
@IVolatilitysYouTube
@IVolatilitysYouTube 2 года назад
Great video!
@jpf7788
@jpf7788 3 года назад
Love the videos, so much important information to take in. I would suggest turning down the volume on the intro song a little bit.
@juwright1949
@juwright1949 Год назад
Excellent!
@johnny6ryefield
@johnny6ryefield 4 года назад
thanks for your videos mate
@PBoyle
@PBoyle 4 года назад
Thanks, glad you find them helpful.
@grahambull5245
@grahambull5245 Год назад
Thank you for this info. Could this be done using a combination of SQQQ & TQQQ and playing off the other?
@1pwNz0mb13Z
@1pwNz0mb13Z 3 года назад
I finally understand what volatility trading is :)
@PBoyle
@PBoyle 3 года назад
Glad to have helped.
@XxpitbulxX009
@XxpitbulxX009 2 года назад
Would you mind creating a playlist with regards to this subject ?
@rossfriedman6570
@rossfriedman6570 Год назад
How do you know how far in the future to make the expiration date and how many dollars up or down the strike prices are?
@miguelfreire8369
@miguelfreire8369 2 года назад
Nice video, my question is how to pick the right options for the gamma scalping, how do we compare real volatility vs implied volatility? That explanation would be great 🙂 also real examples of trading floor insights
@75pdubs
@75pdubs 7 месяцев назад
Scalping game is really scalping deltas ie buying and selling the stock or futures. Whatever is the underlying. A market maker makes his money through collecting edge on the bid ask of the options. You don’t want to be crossing the bid ask to rebalance your delta. It’s too expensive. Plus you introduce other Greeks. Simpler and cheaper to rebalance using the underlying.
@crfn2205
@crfn2205 4 года назад
thx bro
@PBoyle
@PBoyle 4 года назад
No problem
@nocomment3294
@nocomment3294 Год назад
So it is a bet on high or low volatility if i get it right. For a moment a thought it be a way to make money with bitcoin before i relized that options would be prized in and nobody is selling and buying crypto on that frequency since it is to expensive and slow.
@Helloimtheshiieet
@Helloimtheshiieet 3 года назад
Dude I have a question this is making a lightbulb go off. Follow me here.. APRE 0 volume May 15th calls. Obviously IV is low.. all time low or near it. 30-50% below PT by analyst. Could you not sell at the ask to the market makers for less than you paid on an IV Spike?
@jeffshackleford3152
@jeffshackleford3152 3 года назад
Do you necessarily have to hedge your deltas with long/short shares?
@PBoyle
@PBoyle 3 года назад
You can just trade the options on their own, but then you are more exposed to the price risk of the underlying. If you wanted that exposure it is easier to just trade the underlying.
@nagihangot6133
@nagihangot6133 Год назад
STONKS!
@savagemp5
@savagemp5 5 лет назад
hi, thanks for your videos, i guess u are new to youtube, but your experience in options is amazing. I just wonder if u hv planned on explaining further on vol arb. 1. say... give examples of the entire trade "cycle". u've explained the IV from low to high, how about high to low. 2. And when would be a good time to maintain net 0 positions, and when do I initiate new positions ? eg. IV is low when its below 32. when it cross 32, u buy iv ? And high iv defined as say.. 64% do u then sell after it cross 64 and lower ?
@PBoyle
@PBoyle 5 лет назад
Hi Dennis, Thanks for your message, I am glad you find the videos helpful. I have been a little bit slow at putting up videos over the last week, but plan on returning to daily uploads starting next week. I'll add your suggestions to my list of videos to make, and hopefully I'll get all of your questions answered shortly. Patrick
@cole6167
@cole6167 2 года назад
He described IV from high to low -- that's the participants short volatility, needing extra compensation for unlimited losses, losing profit on delta hedging transactions, etc. On positions -- the question is: do you think volatility will increase? Decrease? No opinion? Your position simply reflects your outlook on markets, no? Personally, I'm struck by how long and far down implied volatility on US indexes can move during a "cycle" -- that feeds a short volatility positioning bias I have, even when IV is "low". But also, I find it useful to have a "profit release valve" by having long volatility exposure. Basically -- instead of alternating short/long vol, you could also diversify and run both in parallel ;-)
@bworjoloh
@bworjoloh 3 года назад
Maybe somebody already asked this, but if you buy an OTM call and the price doesn't move, the call stays out of the money and the delta would have to got to zero and if you buy an ITM call and the price doesn't move, the call stays in the money and the delta would have to got to 1. that would mean you would sell or buy back the shares you hedged at the same price so you would still lose the full premium of the call, but the delta does change even if the price stays the same doesn't it?
@PBoyle
@PBoyle 3 года назад
As time goes by the delta will change, but any buying and selling be happening at the same price, thus generating no profit (and running up transaction costs). Thus you lose the entire premium for an OTM option and you lose the time value component for an ITM option.
@rossfriedman6570
@rossfriedman6570 Год назад
People who sell options usually assume the volatility will stay close to what it was in the recent past?
@gn6905
@gn6905 9 месяцев назад
Greeks attribution: Delta PnL: delta * dSpot Gamma PnL: 0.5gamma * dSpot^2 Theta PnL: theta * dTime Vega PnL: vega * dIV
@johngutierrez2042
@johngutierrez2042 3 года назад
Am I right to assume that when IV is low, purchasing a long dated straddle and hedging it daily till 90 days exp would be a profitable strategy?
@PBoyle
@PBoyle 3 года назад
Buying a straddle is long vol, so you would make money if actual vol turned out to be greater than implied vol when you bought.
@cole6167
@cole6167 2 года назад
Remember Patrick's point that options need quite a profit margin for the seller's high risk (even "when IV is low", arguably) -- so holding a straddle for 90 days sounds quite expensive. I'd ask questions like "how can I reduce the risk of not capturing enough realized volatility or IV increase?" "How can I reduce the cost of my volatility exposure?" "Where else might I look for more/less sensitivity to realized volatility during the life of this trade?" Answering these questions could actually be fun and interesting.
@danh5226
@danh5226 Год назад
so clearly explained. complicated things on textbook become so simple
@anindadatta164
@anindadatta164 3 года назад
16 pc IV should mean 1 SD of forecast annualised realised volatility over life of option is 16 pc
@mobileentertainment212
@mobileentertainment212 Год назад
In the long and right case, could some one explain why we hedge by buying when the delta is zero and hedge by selling when delta is 1. I thought it was the other way round. We have to buy the full notional when delta is 1 and when it is zero essentially there is no hedge and hence we sell all the underlying
@75pdubs
@75pdubs 7 месяцев назад
The delta of the call is zero. Not the net position. So if you start off long 2 ATM calls and short 1 future then the futures selloffs hard so the calls now have a delta of 0 then your net delta is short 1 from the initial short future. So you have to buy back the future to get back to delta neutral. If in the other scenario the futures rally excessively then the calls have a delta of 2 and your short 1 future for a net delta of +1. So you have to sell another future to get to delta neutral.
@rishig7862
@rishig7862 2 года назад
Can retail investors utilize volatility arbitrage?
@oberstvontoffel
@oberstvontoffel Год назад
a DEALER takes the other side of your trade/transaction/order... a MARKET MAKER sets the price for the asset that is traded. Dealers are liquidity providers. some brokers do this too. Market makers are Central Banks that set the price for the currency OR the price engine / price algorithm that sets the price for futures using the bid/ask
@rishig7862
@rishig7862 2 года назад
Hey Patrick, is this strategy a good way to get started in options trading?
@75pdubs
@75pdubs 7 месяцев назад
No. It’s best left to market makers that collect edge taking the other side of trades. If you’re going to guess on the direction of volatility you might as well guess on the direction of a stock.
@gautieralassaire4799
@gautieralassaire4799 2 года назад
Why do many traders trade on volatility? Is it easier to know when the realized volatility is below or above the market forecast than betting on stocks directly?
@75pdubs
@75pdubs 7 месяцев назад
Until vix futures and variance swaps the volatility component of options was probably the only way to hedge embedded options in structured products. Some traders speculate on the direction of volatility but net are probably as unsuccessful as traders trying to predict the direction of the underlying. Often traders are using outright options and the market makers taking the other side of their trades are managing their inventory through this delta neutral method. And until 1987 the whole curve of an expiration month basically traded at one IV so there was less vol risk. Volatility tends to move much slower than the underlying. There were ways to hedge the other inputs that determine the price of an option except the volatility component until vix futures.
@jironghuang4895
@jironghuang4895 Год назад
How do we effectively manage the gamma risk exposure?
@75pdubs
@75pdubs 7 месяцев назад
If you’re long then there is not gamma risk. Just theta. If short then by negative gamma scalping with the underlying.
@jironghuang4895
@jironghuang4895 7 месяцев назад
@@75pdubs most often this strategy is short gamma. And if gamma when you don't manage well will kill your strategy when it blows up.
@zaklloyd4335
@zaklloyd4335 9 месяцев назад
Not meaning to be pedantic. I am a bit of a noob, but isn't 16% vol a 0.8% daily move?
@rn.a.3577
@rn.a.3577 5 лет назад
so it seems the frequency of dynamic hedging impacts the profitability of the strategy. Anyway, very good video!
@PBoyle
@PBoyle 5 лет назад
That is correct. I talk a little bit about that in my video on volatility swaps too.
@AP-dk9xt
@AP-dk9xt 2 года назад
No one has commented on the sound of the person who enters and proceeds to shave with an electric razor for the last five minutes of this video? Impossible.
@JustoDisla
@JustoDisla 3 года назад
Thank you. Very informative but in my view had to watch the video like 5+ times and still could not make it into a practical procedure to trade. I bought the book to find a way to make it a strategy that I can implement. I'm doing CSP and rolling them until expire OTM. Hugely profitable for sure, but require to hedge constantly against black swans all time. I could settle with less profit and more peace of mind.
@cole6167
@cole6167 2 года назад
An example procedure matching his description: buy an ATM call and short 50 shares; trade shares to bring the delta back to zero once per regular trading session until expiration or until outlook changes.
@lovetrackt8448
@lovetrackt8448 2 месяца назад
You have good content but you should use some examples and graphics to explain
@user-ej7ss8ei2g
@user-ej7ss8ei2g 2 года назад
I bought 1 call and 1 put, both ATM and hedging the delta. The underlying IV was below its historical average, yet both contracts lost money as IV increased. My question would be is this volatility trade still possible if someone is simply buying delta hedged puts and calls when the IV is low, or does this only involve those who are writing the options into the market?
@cole6167
@cole6167 2 года назад
It works for volatility buyers and sellers (they just want/expect different market behavior). Your trade could have struggled for many reasons -- did you get a good fill price on the contracts? Did IV increase on your portion of the maturity curve? Also, did you attempt to extract profits from increased realized volatility by rehedging?
@RR-ob8ze
@RR-ob8ze 2 года назад
I became a millionaire using $2,000 & implied volatility thanks so much
@MultiBroncos12
@MultiBroncos12 2 года назад
How did you do it? Thanks 👍🙏
@isrcinimatic587
@isrcinimatic587 5 месяцев назад
tell us about it 👀
@MikeKleinsteuber
@MikeKleinsteuber 3 года назад
You're right in pointing out that it isn't actually arbitrage and it really pisses me off that the word 'arbitrage' is misused all over the place, particularly with 'retail arbitrage' which is nothing more than simple trading. You buy something cheaply and then hope to sell it for more money. That's trading. Not arbitrage. Stop using this word incorrectly.
@Baibakov88
@Baibakov88 2 года назад
Volatility arbitrage is a technical term with a particular meaning. He's not using it incorrectly.
@user-ej7ss8ei2g
@user-ej7ss8ei2g 2 года назад
He, himself doesn't dictate the vernacular. He's said in a previous video exactly what you're saying about finance.
@niajaboyzz
@niajaboyzz 3 года назад
gotta make it simpler for the masses man
@cole6167
@cole6167 2 года назад
lol fair, but there is TONS out there for the masses -- and yet there's almost no one else like him!
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