Vote 2024: Sky News General Election projection

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Professor Michael Thrasher, Sky News election analyst says 'it has been a dreadful set of results for the Conservatives' but points out that Labour has not made all the gains.
Sky News projects that Labour is on course to be the largest party, but would fall short of an overall majority in the next General Election, based on the local election results so far.
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Опубликовано:

2 май 2024

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Комментарии : 143

@FranzBieberkopf Месяц назад

Professor Thrasher will be truly ashamed of this when he sobers up. 1- A H of C prediction with no input from Scotland, Wales and NI (over 100 seats). 2-Not knowing the difference between general and local elections -no Ratepayers, Residents, hardly any Independents in a general. 3-The Greens will get, at max, 3 seats (Brighton, Norwich and Bristol), Reform will almost certainly win none. nowhere remotely like the 60-odd predicted here. If I were the Sky producer of this segment, I'd ask Thrasher for my money back. Can't say I'm surprised-after all, ultimately Murdoch is paying Thrasher for appearing here.

@gingarrison104 Месяц назад

I also will the reform party will not get any seat, they are disgusting.

@bradwhiteuk Месяц назад

The model they used here is utterly worthless. I prefer to trust electoralcalculus. They have the chances of a Labour majority at 98%.

@ajs41 Месяц назад

Prof Thrasher knows what he's talking about.

@user-sf7kl9uh7k Месяц назад

Labour will have a 100 seat majority, MINIMUM

@ajs41 Месяц назад

@@user-sf7kl9uh7k I disagree. If they do win a majority, I'm 99% sure it'll be less than 100.

@Theplaysthet Месяц назад

This is the dumbest prediction ive ever seen.

@pipoo1 Месяц назад

Yep. This is literally click bait to try and sell the ridiculous "bad result for Labour narrative" that Sunak was spinning. It's pathetic actually for a mainstream news channel to peddle this agenda.

@TheDandonian Месяц назад

It's not. The Conservatives changed the boundary lines months ago, which means Labour would need an even bigger swing than they've ever had. Our voting system is beyond corrupt. The killer is, the Tories will most likely close the gap in the run in, there's a big chance they still win despite most people hating their guts.

@Theplaysthet Месяц назад

@@TheDandonian It is because they haven't taken into account that Scotland is going to have many more Labour MPS.

@aleccap5946 Месяц назад

It hurts knowing these idiots are being paid well for talking bollocks

@RogerMellie-yk3gw Месяц назад

@@TheDandonianI'm not mad on them, but I'll still vote conservatives. Lesser of two evils

@MichaelSmith-ns8ow Месяц назад

This is not accurate. Don’t believe it.

@tweedx7772 Месяц назад

20% voter turnout, this doesn't mean a thing

@davidk7262 Месяц назад

I would love to know what the prof has been smoking. Labour are going to get a thumping majority.

@splintercast8092 Месяц назад

How do make a prediction like this when large parts of the UK didn't have any local elections on Thursday?

@paulcarter6146 Месяц назад

No hope who ever ends up in government

@Nico-ss9lr Месяц назад

Having that attitude will only allow things to get worse. Being fatalistic is just an excuse not to be politically engaged, which leads to worst outcomes for all of us.

@Fab666. Месяц назад

@@Nico-ss9lrstop pretending like the uk is a democracy. We’ve had the same 2 parties for 100 years. This outcome is not in any way probable in a real democratic country

@user-zc4yd9ss7h Месяц назад

Labour's GE vote share will certainly be much higher than 35% and the Tories will slip further down. Plus, this is a purely English voting day....

@quintuscrinis8032 Месяц назад

The Scottish and Welsh constituencies might help Labour true. But I wouldn't bet on a Labour majority, these (and last year's) results are very similar to those of 1992 and 1993!

@droge192 Месяц назад

Let's come back after the GE and laugh and scoff at Michael (a Tory)'s biased blunders. I'm not even a Labour supporter but anyone suggesting they're not even going to get a majority has their head buried in the sand.

@markhayward7400 Месяц назад

What Sky News calls a 'projection', psephologists would call 'guesswork'.

@ajs41 Месяц назад

Professor Michael Thrasher is probably the top psephologist in the country.

@Idk-ys7rt Месяц назад

Reading anything into PNS is terrible analysis, also because this calculates all constituencies in the UK based on only results in England (with low turnout).

@quintuscrinis8032 Месяц назад

Look at the numbers compared to 1993! The 1992 local election results were scarely similar to last year's as well. PNS is far from perfect but it is a very complex and established model that is constantly being refined.

@ANDY1985UK2011 Месяц назад

@@quintuscrinis8032 kinnock was welsh , he was never gonna win enough seats in england

@GerryT. Месяц назад

Deluded Sunak says the voters will stick with the Tories at the election.

@Abasiyacity Месяц назад

😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

@plutomissing6084 Месяц назад

This prediction is not accurate

@mosheridan7016 Месяц назад

Stammer still short thats a really bad result for him and I'm happy.

@plutomissing6084 Месяц назад

@@mosheridan7016 Yeah, under this deeply flawed prediction which doesn't include Scotland

@mosheridan7016 Месяц назад

@@plutomissing6084 Let's hope he does not either way.

@quintuscrinis8032 Месяц назад

@@plutomissing6084compare these results to 1993 (or last year's to 1992). They are unnervingly similar.

@Idk-ys7rt Месяц назад

So, PNS is calculating Scottish based on results in England only? Also, there is a substantial difference between local elections and general elections, particularly independents where Labour lost most of their vote and voter turnout is significantly lower.

@steveosborne2297 Месяц назад

As a statistician I have never seen such a load of garbage in all my life

@quintuscrinis8032 Месяц назад

Look at this year's results vs 1993. Same as last year's vs 1992. Honestly this might be a bit optimistic for Labour.

@lukespencer1064 Месяц назад

This is so stupid it hurts

@dewistaplesjones6338 Месяц назад

Claptrap like most things on sky

@thomasmorin749 Месяц назад

Einstein would have difficulty working out this prediction.

@davidhamilton6363 Месяц назад

Labour, Tories Two cheeks of the same backside,no chance of help for families

@songscoops4205 Месяц назад

After the hangover....no change...😂😂

@mukunthanteam6834 Месяц назад

The judgment of the people is the greatest judgment

@NSq12 Месяц назад

This is so stupid projection

@quintuscrinis8032 Месяц назад

Look at this year's results then look at 1993. Or last year's vs 1992. The modelling has been carefully refined and based on a lot of good modeling and statistical analysis.

@deang5214 Месяц назад

Complete waste of time, not taking into account that labour will go from 1 seat to potentially 20-25 seats in Scotland.

@stujujitwingfut5192 Месяц назад

It's almost time to swap scrips

@loonaticsrunningtheassylum 17 дней назад

I DO NOT CONSENT

@EthanZoid Месяц назад

Imagine inferring national election based on local and last election 😂😂😂😂

@user-yh8hr2xi6p Месяц назад

No vote for any party

@shadrana1 Месяц назад

The markets are suggesting that the economy will improve. Assume nothing.

@ggunga7764 Месяц назад

Hardly a surprise

@lauraeastment7491 Месяц назад

I vote Putin the only person who would have the balls to deal with this cesspit of a country

@RogerMellie-yk3gw Месяц назад

Yeah me too

@juliebarnes610 Месяц назад

Or trump lol xx

@Jaujau933 Месяц назад

Tories - Your done !!!!!!!

@minervazm1 Месяц назад

Yep

@maxharbig1167 Месяц назад

I'm not underestimating the evident Tory disaster but do percentages of the vote really mean anything except a trend in a country with FPTP and not PR? Just asking.

@chrismichaelchristodoulide4777 Месяц назад

Exactly what I thought and said before we are going to have another Neil Kinnock out of Starmer.

@jake751 Месяц назад

He was terrible

@christineburton3229 25 дней назад

Get the conservatives out and in with labour

@Bazball-vg2bh Месяц назад

Vote Reform UK 🇬🇧

@Jericho642 Месяц назад

I’d laugh my arse off if Lib Dems formed a coalition with the “other” parties, and both Labour and Tories were left out. Let’s have some new ideas

@MAC_ABC Месяц назад

Even as a casual observer I can’t help but laugh at this ridiculous projection. 400 seats for Labour is now a BARE MINIMUM. Who actually thinks independents/ small parties are gonna get 20+% & LibDem at 16%??? That 35% Labour is minimum between 45-48%!! What an embarrassing projection! Tories getting 100 seats will be a good day for them at next election day; getting 242 would be the dream even coke-d up Rishi won’t be imagining!

@quintuscrinis8032 Месяц назад

These local election results are eerily similar to 1993. Last year's were equally eerily reminiscent of 1992's local elections. Stop dreaming and deluding yourself that it's over, that's how they win.

@farukhnazir9221 Месяц назад

me and my husband also vote to Labour❤

@jediofswtor5738 Месяц назад

I highly doubt it's going to be a hung Parliament this time. Especially how bad the SNP is doing in Scotland. I fully expect that once the general election does come, the SNP vote will collapse and labour will be picking up seats in Scotland.

@jake751 Месяц назад

Hunk *

@kenw5104 Месяц назад

1:04 How bout Labour + Lib Dems coalition? 294 +38 =332 > 326. 6 seats majority still looks risky 😅 🍿

@jake751 Месяц назад

👎

@lancersharpe Месяц назад

Very poor methodology.

@lawrencenoctor2703 Месяц назад

So many have worked to bring down the tories but Sunak has done the job for them. The shambles created by the pygmy is helping to the extent that by autumn labour labour will have a resounding majority if the mighty atom can hold on that long. Fingers crossed.

@gingarrison104 Месяц назад

Sky News tried its best to make its Tory bosses look like a bit of better. Both BBC and the Guardian have said that Lab is very likely to get a majority in the Parliament.

@user-wq6sz7vt3w Месяц назад

Sir Jimmy Starmer!

@melgrant7404 Месяц назад

Max headroom.

@ggunga7764 Месяц назад

Labour???

@jujichop69 Месяц назад

A LabLib coalition then, anything other than the Tories.

@jamietherooster 22 дня назад

I'd rather have the tories because i'm not a sheep who listens to sly news

@JDempsterRacing Месяц назад

lol

@AdamXA Месяц назад

guy clearly knows nothing about statistics

@stepheng8779 Месяц назад

Laughable

@johnbrereton5229 Месяц назад

This analyses is all based on shaky data and because of that its pointless and means absolutely nothing.

@parallaxview6770 Месяц назад

Starmers donald ducked

@BIBIWCICC Месяц назад

We must stop the Labourkenesit party too.

@nuudelz3711 Месяц назад

And here all the right wingers online had me believe they were the majority 😂

@Jcw12349 Месяц назад

😂

@robertpearce7795 Месяц назад

This prediction is a load of nonsense. A far better prediction can be found at Electoral Calculus, which aggregates multiple polls from across the country: This currently predicts a 98% chance of a Labour majority. The Conservatives are totally stuffed.

@quintuscrinis8032 Месяц назад

Polls are polls, it's actual votes thay count. Look at last year's results against 1992. This year's against 1993. They are eerily similar and we know what happened then. Complacency like this is how they manage to win!!

@jamietherooster 22 дня назад

Don't worry, it's only your globalist, establishment sly news trying to scare the average voter into voting for WEF puppet Starmer

@BIBIWCICC Месяц назад

What the Uk media isn’t reporting - ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-mVSqxRNmDmk.htmlfeature=shared

@trickydicky90 Месяц назад

The pound went up today. That means the markets are predicting Labour are unlikely to win next election which btw is not a bad thing.

@KILKennyLaDa9898-js2nr Месяц назад

FTSE 100 at record levels due to excellent Tory handling of the economy.

@paulsmith7281 Месяц назад

It’s labour’s to lose

@gavinforsyth321 Месяц назад

I still wont vote labour

@gingarrison104 Месяц назад

good afternoon, Tory bot!!!

@gavinforsyth321 Месяц назад

Hello there

@AC-tn9hg Месяц назад

And yet labour think its in the bag!! 😂

@svresh Месяц назад

someone is too thick to know the flaws with PNS 🤡

@FarmerEnvoyXtreme Месяц назад

We don't need conservatives still in government and just as bad we dont want labour back in government as they make things just as bad if not worst. We need change. We need to reform this country to gain it's back bone back.

@shelleyscloud3651 Месяц назад

Unfortunately the masses need to experience the accelerated destruction of 5 years under labour before they’re forced into accepting reality and finally wake up to the betrayal, incompetence & corruption of the uniparty....God only knows how irreparable the damage will be by then. Bumpy rude ahead....

@RogerMellie-yk3gw Месяц назад

I don't mind the conservatives too much. I'll probably just vote for them