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Watch market MELTDOWN! 🔥 Has the ROLEX bubble finally burst? 

Escapement24
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28 сен 2024

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Комментарии : 283   
@DingDong-tj9ce
@DingDong-tj9ce 7 месяцев назад
I was told by a UK Watches of Switzerland sales staff last week when I enquired about a Submariner that I would have to wait 20 years for the watch but if I bought 3 other brands she might be able to sell me a Rolex!! I walked out in disgust and went to a competitor retailer to buy a none Rolex watch. Rolex and WoS have lost the plot and have destroyed their brand. Not interested.
@DingDong-tj9ce
@DingDong-tj9ce 7 месяцев назад
@dellwright1407 I'm not sure the models are necessarily that popular. Instead, WoS are attempting to use Rolex as bait, requiring customers to spend more by requiring them to buy less popular brands before they will consider them for a Rolex.
@DingDong-tj9ce
@DingDong-tj9ce 7 месяцев назад
@dellwright1407 restricting supply artificially certainly helps to create and sustain the luxury brand image. Agree, many ADs are playing the same game.
@DingDong-tj9ce
@DingDong-tj9ce 7 месяцев назад
@dellwright1407 what you say is true about how brand desirability is created but you underestimate the power of brands to be able to also manipulate the market by intentionally restricting supply as a means to increase retail and secondary prices. This is a well known and documented technique used by Rolex. As for retailers taking advantage by literally requiring customers to spend more on other items, this goes to values. Thankfully not all retailers use this discredited practice and that is appreciated by most customers.
@stereostig5983
@stereostig5983 7 месяцев назад
That kind of attitude is the reason why I will never buy a Rolex.
@Asm-sg8gb
@Asm-sg8gb 7 месяцев назад
WoS sales staff in Cardiff are the most condescending a-holes I have ever had the misfortune to meet. Had a terrible experience with their Rolex sales team talking down to me when I enquired about a no date sub, I walked out and vowed never to return. I then went to Laings in Cardiff and the experience was totally different. The customer service there was brilliant and I can’t sing their praises enough, and yes I had to wait the best part of two years but I eventually had a call from Martyn to say they had a sub no date in so off I went and picked it up. I had no buying history with them and that didn’t seem to matter, and eventually I went on to buy a datejust for my wife on our anniversary from them and they treated her like royalty. That’s the way a company keeps clients , not by blackmailing them like WoS or Goldsmiths.
@anthonycolbourne4206
@anthonycolbourne4206 8 месяцев назад
I think many people are extremely cautious about spending any amount of money at the moment... what used to be a pile of "extra" money to spend on "extra" fun things has become a reserve funds that more people are dipping into. Now they're looking at selling the extra fun things they bought recently to pay for necessities.
@masterwatch
@masterwatch 8 месяцев назад
I think that is true for many people.
@KilgoreOnDrugs
@KilgoreOnDrugs 8 месяцев назад
Also the cypto crash as an additional factor.
@Ultradubmarine
@Ultradubmarine 8 месяцев назад
@@KilgoreOnDrugscrash, BTC is over 40000 dollars!?
@Rhal63
@Rhal63 7 месяцев назад
Well done. So true about the industry. I just bought a Seamaster 300 in Barcelona. I was with a family member who really knew watches and was negotiating the purchase of another watch. Without asking the dealer he gave me 20% off, plus somehow another 21% tax refund at the airport. Thanks
@ulyssesvazquez387
@ulyssesvazquez387 8 месяцев назад
thank you. I am now very happy that my AD never called me to purchase my TwoTone Blue sub. I will wait a few more months and follow the charts. Very informative.
@jozsefizsak
@jozsefizsak 8 месяцев назад
People who think infinite growth is possible based on extrapolating from the comparatively recent past are eventually going to discover they were mistaken. It's not that hard to list some reasons why watches won't become more sought after and valuable in an unbroken climb to infinity. Even the very rich will turn away from something that seems to have an insultingly high price that doesn't seem justifiable. Keeping the good times going by increasing prices to make up for dwindling sales is obviously not going to work forever even if it works for a while. There are exceptions to every rule but by definition, expecting to skate by while your competitors falter is possible but unlikely. If the CEOs have come to believe that business cycles are a thing of the past, they will learn a painful lesson which will be much worse for their employees. Your comments are very satisfying in that you're an enthusiast and not a speculator. People like to glorify the practise by calling it investing but it's not.
@drticktock4011
@drticktock4011 7 месяцев назад
Great vid! First time seeing your channel. I visited my AD last week, DJs and YM1s for sale in the window. My hunch is more will be available too.
@cedarcanoe
@cedarcanoe 8 месяцев назад
Big applause on your video, how you present it and more. Very professional. Thsnks!
@Escapement24
@Escapement24 8 месяцев назад
Thank you buddy that's really appreciated 🙏🙏🙏
@dunderhay9169
@dunderhay9169 8 месяцев назад
A very interesting analysis 👍. It was pretty obvious a couple of years ago we were in a bubble, a friend told me she was on the Rolex waiting list purely to store the watch and sell for profit, I hold her not to be so sure. The really rare watches will hold value, but the mass produced models are already over supplied, because so many who bought for investment are trying to get their money back. As well as absurd price increases, I think the way Rolex ADs treated potential customers will come back to bite them, being ridiculed when asking to spend your money is a bitter pill and many won't return ever.
@Escapement24
@Escapement24 8 месяцев назад
Couldn't agree more, I've always struggled with the idea of some ADs making customers feel "grateful" that they allow them to buy a watch. I mean, come on we're talking about mass produced products not ultra luxury. Call me old fashioned but it's the customer that's paying their wages at the end of the day....maybe some of those ADs are now realising this 🤔
@dunderhay9169
@dunderhay9169 8 месяцев назад
@@Escapement24 Let's hope so!
@kw8757
@kw8757 8 месяцев назад
@@Escapement24 I'm seriously hoping WoS go bust, or at least have to wind down their business significantly, and other AD's too.
@PatrickHawthorne
@PatrickHawthorne 8 месяцев назад
thanks for the video. it's nice to hear someone with an honest view of the market with statistics to back it up. is some of the price drops attributed to the cooling off after COVID - you know, that mad period in history when money was no object and everyone thought (not me though) watch values only went up?
@PatQuakernaat
@PatQuakernaat 8 месяцев назад
Watch lovers are cautious and pee'd off. The grey markets had a few cases of fraud with ponsy schemes and fakes. The new high price tags and unavailability are pissing off new buyers. Lastly there is safety, you'll find that only in Dubai you can wear expensive watches safely.
@Canadian_Eh_I
@Canadian_Eh_I 7 месяцев назад
Yup, all good point especially about the 'eat the rich' types. Rich people aren't dumb and are being a bit more careful about conspicuous consumption.
@Pler1978
@Pler1978 2 месяца назад
​@@Canadian_Eh_II'm sure you'd be fine in many parts of the world ...Japan for one
@gavinsverdloff4291
@gavinsverdloff4291 7 месяцев назад
I predict that the watch market will return to buyers being able to purchase either stock or sensible waiting times. In December 2002, I purchased a new Rolex Pearlmaster 18k yellow gold, Pearl face, diamond numerals, fabulous diamond bezel contained in a beautiful Jewellery box with a 25% discount off the retail price.
@cocorvado
@cocorvado 7 месяцев назад
I bought a Speedmaster Moonphase in a shop last year. Two month later i found it on Chrono24 for a discount of 30%. When you buy a "normal" watch it is like to buy a car; the moment you leave the store you already lost 10%. I would suggest to wait the bottom and then buy preowned like hell. More and more people are realising that only the stupid loose that amount of money for a watch. I buy gold-vintage from the 50th to 70th, where you can find chronographs with date and moonphase for around 4000. I NEVER would buy a steel watch for 20000 plus, just because some corrupt idiots tell me that this is the only way to impress. Talking about: The last time i showed up with a 36mm Breitling from the 50th in red gold, my surrounding got nuts. Moreover: Tudor is not the Rolex for the poor, it is a reasonable priced nice watch in good quality. All this of cause doesn’t apply to the high end like PP or FPJ… if a (really) small manufacture is only capable to produce 10 watches per year and these watches are the best in haute horlogerie, they deserve the money. All the rest? Forget it.
@RootBeerGMT
@RootBeerGMT 8 месяцев назад
No, you cannot just walk in a get a Rolex. That’s absolutely bullshit. I was in five ADs in Vegas--all exhibition only. Same in Park City. Same in Tampa. Same in Miami.
@Escapement24
@Escapement24 8 месяцев назад
I can't speak for the US market and probably should've made that clear in the video, but the situation seems very different here in the UK and I've had multiple people here tell me they've been offered watches with little or no waitlist
@WestCoastAce27
@WestCoastAce27 8 месяцев назад
@@Escapement24 I think his pt is directed at the Gringa - she’s American. And he’s 100% correct - w/o connections or a history the odds of getting called for a Rolex are very thin on this side of the pond. Rolex has made no effort to stop flipping (they could - easily) so the sales people still sell them out the back door - $4k profit instead of $6k? It’s still a nice supplement to their income.
@kw8757
@kw8757 8 месяцев назад
@@Escapement24 The AD in Chester UK has suddenly lost the '"Display Only" signs and now have the actual price next to each Rolex, I was thinking of going in to see what the purchase situation is....but at the same time I feel quite bitter about their attitude over the last few years so I'm also thinking "fuck 'em".
@GM-ii8gs
@GM-ii8gs 8 месяцев назад
​@@WestCoastAce27 Britt is Canadian, but lives in UK.
@GM-ii8gs
@GM-ii8gs 8 месяцев назад
​@@kw8757 Don't get too excited, been in two UK AD in the last week, one WoS, both said Rolex told them to take the exhibition only signs down and put prices back in the window, but they have to hang on to the stock because they don't know what arriving and what's coming though is in small quantities, but perhaps Rolex UK is anticipating and planning for a substantial shipment from Switzerland, from what I've been able to find out over the year is Rolex ships many thousands of watches to the country subsidiary in one go, sometimes tens of thousands to a big market in one go to make security measures easier, it is the country subsidiary who hold the stock and then release it to the ADs.
@mrgee007
@mrgee007 8 месяцев назад
Great vid Simon. I've been using Watch Charts since lockdown and was shocked when I 1st saw the value of my watch collection vs Chrono's prices 😂 However I wasn't sure what they used to get the prices, so thanks for explaining. Still confused what the graph at the bottom of Chrono24 shows then? My local AD offered me a black dial DJ 41mm 8 months ago which I declined as I was down for a blue motif 41mm DJ. The fire's gone out now to own one, waited too long. If Rolex don't pull their finger out and make a load more watches, why would an AD invest so much to deck out their store in Rolex colours, to barely have any watches to sell, goes against any basic business model. I was down Bremont's Wing HQ last year, very impressive, but how the hell can they survive, their prices are crazy, no history, I never see anyone talk about them or wear them. Interesting times. The bubbles burst, but it's still deflating, this isn't the end of the prices going down further.
@Escapement24
@Escapement24 8 месяцев назад
Thanks man and I completely agree, I think the next few months will be telling as there's bound to be some twitching at the board room tables in Switzerland when the Q1 figures come in
@bjoernaltmann
@bjoernaltmann 8 месяцев назад
Yes, very interesting situation. Some Rolex references are available to buy now at WoS, yes. Solid gold and two tone, that is. No change yet with the steel models. - JLC prices have gone up too much, I had been wondering already who would still buy. And the problem is: they can't go back. - I like pre-owned. That way I don't have to worry about scratches
@antonv5488
@antonv5488 7 месяцев назад
AP was changing down the MSRP on some of their models already, so it's possible.
@chrisjones6439
@chrisjones6439 8 месяцев назад
Really interesting video bud 👍 Just a thought...a wee portion of the figures could be attributed to the market levelling out after previous ridiculous spikes. Totally agree regarding ADs having to discount, and from a consumer standpoint it's great on paper, the discount will only negate the massive price increases. The new Bremont ceo has already hinted he wants to make their prices more attractive. Hasn't the new speedy got the new metas movement which could explain part of the price increase? I can see many enthusiasts, myself included, shunning the big boys and going more micro/independent...
@Escapement24
@Escapement24 8 месяцев назад
Cheers Chris 👍 I think there's definitely a "correction" happening (as financial types say) but I do still wonder whether we'll ever see another spike in the way we did during COVID. After all that was a once in a generation event (let's hope so anyway). But I almost feel that the brands have seen that demand as the new normal and many have used it as a basis for price increases 🤔 Having spent more time looking at the Apollo 8 I've now seen it does indeed have the METAS movement - but even that doesn't justify such a steep price hike IMO. Tudor (sorry 😂) went METAS with the new black bay and didn't need to increase the price by such a high margin. Apart from the rocket hand that personally I think cheapens the look of the watch, I think most people wouldn't be able to tell the new model from the old without studying it closely.
@chrisjones6439
@chrisjones6439 8 месяцев назад
@@Escapement24 totally agree with everything you said. May sound stupid, I actually think some brands were too cheap in a way....jlc should never be in the same price bracket as Omega /Tudor...just my opinion...BUT as a massive fan their price hikes have been extremely aggressive, to the point of being ridiculous
@hardy3559
@hardy3559 8 месяцев назад
Absolutely agree with you. I’ve got 30 ish watches only one over a grand a CW gmt I’m glad Rolex is getting a wake-up call . I have some stunning value watches for under £100 . The top brands are tacking pi** enjoyed your comment 👏👏👏👏
@Demolego1980
@Demolego1980 7 месяцев назад
I was lucky to know an AD through a family friend to get me a Batman in 4 days last week. I bought it for my wife because she really liked it for our 15th wedding anniversary. I gave the AD the 3 choices I wanted and whichever I could get first I said I’d take. I told him the sprite, Pepsi or Batman. Batman was my first choice to be honest so I’m happy to get it and give it my wife to wear the crap of it before passing it to our eldest. I’m planning to try and get a sprite for my youngest as she’s a lefty. I must say that I didn’t expect to get one in 4 days though. Im not looking to flip or sell, I just really like it and want to wear it so it doesn’t matter to me whether the price goes up or down after I’ve bought it. My bro continues on his waiting list for a Pepsi 😅
@RolexGMTII
@RolexGMTII 8 месяцев назад
I think the problem I have seen is that Rolex has gotten into the secondary market so it won't benefit them to sell new which is mush less than the secondary market.
@kevinh5349
@kevinh5349 7 месяцев назад
When a Hulk is back down to around $13k I'll believe things are getting back to normal.
@stephenwilliams7056
@stephenwilliams7056 7 месяцев назад
I've seen them for 13k. Guy in Cardiff. Lee Roberts watches of the Vale 👌
@maxinahunt8652
@maxinahunt8652 8 месяцев назад
Meanwhile the waiting list has opened for Anodain…..I would be waiting for 4yrs before I will be called up……
@Plan-C
@Plan-C 3 месяца назад
In any shallow and relatively illiquid market, it is easy to move the market. It can move for you or against you quite significantly with relatively little volume. The market is 'lumpy' and not really transparent. I would not rely too much on those figures but anything that people sat at home trading and pumping up during the zero percent interest rates of the pandemic is basically correcting. Supply takes a while to wind up and wind down, if you will pardon the pun. Basically, the increased supply is hitting a much reduced demand. Much of the previous market was made of 'candy floss'. People had no interest in the underlying but we're basically trading on the 'bigger fool' mentality. Pass the parcel if you will. The music has slowed significantly.
@ericfroment4065
@ericfroment4065 7 месяцев назад
The all waiting list and attitude of AD made me hate rolex, if they call me know I will not give them my cash!
@simonbutler377
@simonbutler377 5 месяцев назад
itwill slowly descend, it will not burst. Plenty of people like me who are waiitng for used prices to come down to list price and will buy.
@sdcoinshooter
@sdcoinshooter 7 месяцев назад
It may have deflated a little, but it won’t be completely busted until you can walk in to an AD and choose any Rolex to buy out of the case.
@Escapement24
@Escapement24 7 месяцев назад
That day might not be too far away. Rolex has a new factory and has increased production at the very same time as demand has all but dried up. They won't stop shipping product out to ADs so unless demand picks up again you're going to see a lot more models in windows and available to purchase.
@anchaleekeamkeaw3552
@anchaleekeamkeaw3552 7 месяцев назад
Does this provide an opportunity for smaller/micro brands who may offer quality products at more realistic prices?
@Escapement24
@Escapement24 7 месяцев назад
I think so
@sahil1112
@sahil1112 6 месяцев назад
I walked into the Paris Airport rolex store 2 days ago and I was given an option to buy a white gold day-date at list price minus the tax. I passed it as it is not I was looking for but after a long time I can see the AD'S being flexible on availability
@Escapement24
@Escapement24 6 месяцев назад
Thanks, that's really interesting. I'm getting a lot of similar messages and comments which supports my belief that demand is so weak right now the ADs have to be far more flexible or risk going out of business
@markdance574
@markdance574 7 месяцев назад
I think pricing of watches has become a joke topic - I remember two years ago thinking wow a Monaco is £5500 retail , now it’s £6800 - and the night driver edition is £8300 . Omega seem to have choosen the new planet ocean prices by using one of those lottery pens - as for WOS - the new boutique at Bluewater looks amazing and they’ve clearly gone after more brands to adjust the loss in interest of Rolex but for me that boutique will never see a penny of my money - for years that group has been supplying watches directly to Watchfinder for an immediate profit above rrp, they’ve acted like they’ve been selling the cure for cancer but first you need to buy other items before you can get on the list - personally I hope a lot of brands take a good look at Rolex falling apart and act quickly to try and recover .
@DeanFaria-x8k
@DeanFaria-x8k 7 месяцев назад
WOS - obviously the management have no idea what is happening in their shops. My cousin went in to the WOS shop where he bought his Datejust and asked for a Sub date. They wouldn't even put him on the list! So they've got too many and yet you can't get on the list? I took him to my AD (Prestons Rolex Boutique in Leeds) and he's now on their list and I'm confident he will have his watch by the summer.
@Escapement24
@Escapement24 7 месяцев назад
It does make you wonder if there's a disconnect between the management and the staff in the stores 🤔
@wwilll
@wwilll 7 месяцев назад
It’s mostly the Submariner, GMT Master, Sea Dweller in fact any of the stainless steel sports models that are very popular, trouble is that Rolex make many different models and variants which means they only make one or two thousand of each, the demand for a Submariner is a lot higher so prices will stay high.
@johnjacobson9528
@johnjacobson9528 6 месяцев назад
Just ordered a Sprite GMT from AD owner at MSRP. Should have in a month or so. I had a nice datejust to trade so that probably helped.
@robertoguerra5375
@robertoguerra5375 6 месяцев назад
Perhaps it is not what watch that has come down in price. Maybe the dollars have stopped losing their value. Looking at the charts’ axes, we can see this is just a hiccup: from 27 to 26 The growth in prices may be related to the rent price of the mall store Invest only the money that you are willing to lose
@jamesdenton9069
@jamesdenton9069 7 месяцев назад
Finally someone speaking sense…
@ArthurvanH0udt
@ArthurvanH0udt 7 месяцев назад
at around 4m40 daytona gold, isn't a down in price logical from the fact that retail price of the gold watches is crazy high? so there's more room to go down?
@gigi11223
@gigi11223 6 месяцев назад
not here, still cant buy in an ad, resellers got all the stocks...not even a display of hot models
@SPQR-Z
@SPQR-Z 7 месяцев назад
Watching younger watch enthusiasts lament the watch industry’s decline. You mentioned cyclical trends. Right. That along with Lux Watch prices yearly increases, inflation and of course premiums. 1960’s a Rolex Submariner no date was
@Johnwis-gp9yy
@Johnwis-gp9yy 6 месяцев назад
No chance of getting popular steel pepsi, daytona, starbucks. Luckily, I want a sub no date so maybe within a year it might happen.
@Robert-vw3od
@Robert-vw3od 8 месяцев назад
another angle to be considered is that a brand like Longines has now produced a lot of watches in the 2.5 to 3.5 thousand price, these watches have viewed as chasing tutor. this is exactly the area which is going to be decimated. We are already seeing heavy discounts and I would predict 20% is going to be the standard. this is going to be the same with the Entry level omega and the variety of other brands.
@Escapement24
@Escapement24 8 месяцев назад
That's interesting. Certainly I know that Tudor ADs here in the UK are struggling to shift models that previously had waitlists - I'm seeing models like the FXD, BB54 and Chrono in AD windows and available to buy (and I'd be surprised if you couldn't get a discount).
@Robert-vw3od
@Robert-vw3od 8 месяцев назад
@@Escapement24 places like the Trafford Centre will be a bloodbath for “ luxury” watch sales. AP lange patek and co will be ok in London. Christopher Ward are going to have a field day and they are going to take a lot of business away from mainstream jewellers. this is what these people who haven’t given a care about the likes of me during the last three years need to realise I’m someone who come back again and again, look after your prime customers. 100% agree with you about Zenith.
@Danomite99
@Danomite99 7 месяцев назад
Long gone are the days that a Rolex AD requires you to “build a purchase history” prior to having an opportunity to buy the piece you want. It will be nice to have some buying leverage again when it’s time for my next purchase.
@Danomite99
@Danomite99 7 месяцев назад
Definitely, there are some models that are still priced so high on the grey market, that unfortunately, AD’s will still have your nuts in a vice.
@hadrienbouquet6450
@hadrienbouquet6450 8 месяцев назад
WoS share price drop is primarily driven by the acquisition of Bucherer by Rolex... If Rolex effectively accounts for 55-60% of WoS rev, there is indeed sth to worry. Pointing out strictly the economy and the spending in the UK is absolutely wrong and misleading… In regards to the price drops, also easy to compare on a 6 months basis. Any steel model you get from a Rolex AD would still trade above RRP. For instance the Sprite prob trades @ 2x while down by 10-15% over the past 6 months.
@algernonwolfwhistle6351
@algernonwolfwhistle6351 7 месяцев назад
You make some good observations. The watch market is returning to watch enthusiasts from the watch speculators and in that sense it's not a cyclical trend but a normalisation and very welcome. Does that mean that the price of new luxury watches need to normalise / reduce too? I think that you're right in that if they don't reduce RRP, then dealers will have to cut their margins and reduce profits to make sales. Isn't that a shame! As I see it, the big problem for Rolex, who have been 30% of new watch market sales, is winning back the trust of loyal customers who were there before the boom and then were sidelined by dealers because they could have more lucrative business with flippers. The imaginary "list", that was never actually there became conditional on buying other less in demand, watches and jewellery before anyone could be considered for a Rolex sports watch. And they are now surprised that those once loyal customers are no longer interested in doing business?? That poses a big problem for WoS and their ilk.
@Fatboylo1980
@Fatboylo1980 7 месяцев назад
I got a call to pick up a submariner blusey in a busy city without any real effort on my part. So I’d say things are changing for sure
8 месяцев назад
I’m only half way into the video but I have to write this. These price drops are drops from the spike prices. Completely hyped prices that we saw during the frenzy of two years ago. Those prices only lasted a couple of months and don’t reflect the general price at all. It’s like throwing a ball in the air and when you catch it on its way down, you say “omg, that ball fell!” If these drops in prices were drops from the retail price, or.. from a long standing general market value, then it would be news. Instead, these drops are from the spike / anomaly that occurred two years ago. Not the same thing. I don’t know why folks are having a tough time understanding this. But maybe you point this out later in the video.
@Escapement24
@Escapement24 8 месяцев назад
I take the point but surely the market value is the only value you can go by if something isn't available at RRP? It's like the property market. If you buy a house for £1m and next year it's worth £850K, you wouldn't say "yeah but when the house was built it cost £500K so the market price doesn't matter"...or would you?
@Escapement24
@Escapement24 8 месяцев назад
Just re-read your comment and you're right that these prices were an anomaly driven by the COVID lockdown conditions, so can't argue with that. But I do think the world started to see those prices as the norm, and I also think brands have been sucked in to that mindset and have increased prices as a result. What do you think?
8 месяцев назад
@@Escapement24 They hadn't time to see those prices as the norm. It only lasted 2 months. Look at every graph out there and you'll see the same horn shaped spike. Especially / only on hype pieces. The black daytona was 24K euro before the spike. It's 25K now. Just cos it flew up to 32K for a couple of months doesn't mean anything in the grand scheme of things. I bought a rootbeer at 17K before the spike. It went to 29K during the spike. You still can't get one for 17K even now. (euro) I was offered a 5711 in 2019 for 50K. I was tempted cos they were going for 65k. Can you even find me one for less than 90K now??? Doesn't matter that they were 190K during the frenzy / spike. It's irrelevant. But if you read a chart, it's going to say "a fall of 50%!" Heaven help us.
@Escapement24
@Escapement24 8 месяцев назад
Interesting! What's your take on the sudden improvement of availability at ADs (at least here in the UK) and the hefty discounts we're seeing on other brands like Zenith and Omega?
8 месяцев назад
@@Escapement24 discounts on zenith and omega are nothing new. The improvement of availability at Rolex AD's is slight. You can get an explorer 2 or a black dial DJ pretty quick. That's the way it always was. I still hear from viewers every day how they were turned away or still waiting after years for a sub, pepsi, daytona etc. Things have resumed their previous state from before the spike. But i understand why youtubers are trying to say it's a market crash cos it gets clicks.
@joshy3602
@joshy3602 8 месяцев назад
I want the rootbeer or sprite.. do i pay retail (on the waiting list) or do i go grey market?
@RL-xf2fy
@RL-xf2fy 7 месяцев назад
I wouldn’t pay a premium for a root beer, they’re pretty easy to get via an AD.
@junkyardparadise
@junkyardparadise 2 месяца назад
There is no bubble if you don't pay over listed price.
@mortgagemartin3987
@mortgagemartin3987 7 месяцев назад
I will be glad when the market crashes to the bottom as these ADs seem to think they are gods. I was on the list for a few different Rolex models but switched to omega and got the Aqua terra due to their BS, I will pick up some Rolex watches this year when the market is lower and hopefully below retail.
@hlim431
@hlim431 7 месяцев назад
Good for the industry, some sanity to the market...
@deondougherty9555
@deondougherty9555 6 месяцев назад
You mention all these Rolex watches are down over the last 6 months, but they all still trade above retail! So if you pick up one from an AD you’re still doing well. Prices should have always come down, in what world should a pre-owned, non-limited watch trade above retail. This is just the market returning back to normal
@deondougherty9555
@deondougherty9555 6 месяцев назад
Plus all these other brands are struggling because people who moved to other brands because Roles where unobtainable are now able to get most models (other than Sub, GMT and Daytona).
@Escapement24
@Escapement24 6 месяцев назад
Completely agree and those who were able to buy at retail should be feeling smug, but plenty were bought on the grey market at well above RRP while at the same time (some) ADs were doing back door deals with flippers and grey market dealers to facilitate this.
@deondougherty9555
@deondougherty9555 6 месяцев назад
@@Escapement24 100% agree the market is volatile because of these flippers and grey dealers, they are like leaches. I do think that anyone who bought one from the grey market must have expected it drop significantly in value! For a company that produces over 1 million watches per year, there is no way standard watches should be worth more than retail, especially for pre owned
@jaysp1910
@jaysp1910 7 месяцев назад
Funny, I was in a WOS group store at the weekend chasing my wait list watch. No steel sports Rolex watches but could have many bi-metal as they had them available. Seems to go against the CEO comments.
@Escapement24
@Escapement24 7 месяцев назад
That's interesting 🤔 I do wonder if the official line from WoS was a plausible excuse to keep shareholders happy but in reality that the main problem is that demand has fallen back to pre 2020 levels (or even below)
@turbyoulance
@turbyoulance 8 месяцев назад
We are in a world wide Inflationary Economic crisis and people that have ROLEX watches are selling them and flogging them off. Rolex just bought Bucherer and have to pay a $90 Billion Euro fine so they NEED to desperately sell some watches, but no one likes their current Inventory and are not buying. ROLEX are in a crisis at the moment.
@Escapement24
@Escapement24 8 месяцев назад
That's an interesting perspective 🤔 I think your point about the difficult economic conditions is the main driver for soft demand, moreso than no one liking their current models (if that's what you meant?). In the comments I'm hearing from a lot of people who are in the US that demand is still high and inventory in short supply - which is counter to what I'm seeing and hearing here in the UK. Some people are also taking issue with the phrase "bubble burst" but say it's just a correction after a period of crazy price inflation on the secondary market, which was an anomaly. If it was an anomaly then "bubble" seems like an appropriate term and if that period is over and we're seeing prices come down rapidly then I don't see the issue with saying it burst! 😂
@dreamcoatcreatives
@dreamcoatcreatives 7 месяцев назад
There isn't a Rolex bubble cos Rolex simply doesn't answer to anyone. They've just purchased Bucherer so it's quite likely they have some understanding of the watch market and future global economic projections across all markets.
@mylesshipway4521
@mylesshipway4521 5 месяцев назад
Music to my ears especially WoS who have been riding the wave of Rolex stupidity and annoying a lot of their stalwart customers for a quick buck selling out the back door, looking forward to the discounts to come. Watches are not investments, they were made to worn and enjoyed, good luck to all the Daytona nest egg people 😂
@kingxerxes3139
@kingxerxes3139 7 месяцев назад
I really enjoy to see that watches decrease. People act they know what they are “worth”, they just know what the price is. No watch is worth over 10K, i am talking about steel watches. Gold or other precious metals can be higher. Or with diamonds can be higher, but steel is not worth any money. Imagine buying a nice watch for about 3K and all that money you wanted so spend on other watches spend on gold, now that’s what I call an investment 😉 once again, it’s just a watch.
@Adam1986London
@Adam1986London 7 месяцев назад
None of this is surprising. When you consider the fact that interest rates have been ridiculously high for the past year or two, people just don't have as much disposable cash as they used to have. Markets go and up down. Pretty basic stuff really.
@CPooter
@CPooter 8 месяцев назад
Patek UK just upped prices by around 7% as far as I can see.
@Escapement24
@Escapement24 8 месяцев назад
That's a steep rise, but I guess if you can afford a PP then they probably figure that you'll pay an extra 7%
@maxilopez1596
@maxilopez1596 7 месяцев назад
People are getting a lesson on scarcity. Luxury watches just aren't that scarce and have an ever increasing supply. Bitcoin with a 21 million hard cap is scarce.
@David-nx2vm
@David-nx2vm 8 месяцев назад
WoS argument doesn’t make sense. Secondary market prices have dropped the most on precious metal models, so investor demand has dropped accordingly - that’s why Britt saw them in the windows at the AD. If everyone wants the SS models, why would WoS complain about getting allocated more SS watches that they could turn more quickly?
@Escapement24
@Escapement24 8 месяцев назад
Completely agree and that's part of the point I was trying to make in the vid. Surely SS models are the easiest to sell? Unless demand is softer than they want to admit 🤔
@WestCoastAce27
@WestCoastAce27 8 месяцев назад
That statement is because they are a publicly traded co and have to explain their revenue miss - Rolex didn’t allocate nearly as many high end precious metal pieces. And thus guidance for the future prospects of the stock. Thus the giant drop in WoS prices.
@nycmaverick
@nycmaverick 8 месяцев назад
I’m going to pick up my Rolex Explorer 40 tomorrow should I offer them less than sticker price.
@Escapement24
@Escapement24 8 месяцев назад
I'm not sure Rolex will give any discounts on RRP (though Tudor would) but I would ask for some freebies
@Watchgang123
@Watchgang123 8 месяцев назад
You definitely should ask
@nycmaverick
@nycmaverick 8 месяцев назад
I will ask and report back on how it went. Just so we are clear I am not a reseller. I am actually going to daily this Explorer even though it is the most expensive watch I have ever owned by 8 fold.
@Escapement24
@Escapement24 8 месяцев назад
@nycmaverick hope that Exp gives you many years of enjoyment buddy 👍
@ianforber
@ianforber 8 месяцев назад
@@nycmaverick how did you get on?
@Thelimey
@Thelimey 7 месяцев назад
The general opinion or Rolex is Fuck Em.. forget price increases you need to get onto a price decrease.
@kingxerxes3139
@kingxerxes3139 7 месяцев назад
Ps: people should also stop acting millionaire when they’re not. The luxury brands are for wealthy people, now these days you live in rental house and you can buy a S class, for the simple reason of paying monthly a check, and when you can’t pay, they take it and you have to pay the percentage. People buying a Rolex of 10k while they get paid monthly 2500€. I always say, only 10% of your income you can spend on luxury, stop acting big when you aren’t 😉
@TheRealHawKing
@TheRealHawKing 7 месяцев назад
Watches are supposed to be luxury items so it means not supposed to follow the market
@stever7097
@stever7097 7 месяцев назад
Excellent video.
@Escapement24
@Escapement24 7 месяцев назад
Cheers Steve 👍
@Thelimey
@Thelimey 7 месяцев назад
IWC is 6k watch
@IpadAccount-pk9ts
@IpadAccount-pk9ts 7 месяцев назад
So, the price has been set back 18 months… 8 % is nothing
@golfertex
@golfertex 7 месяцев назад
Rolex & others have hit a wall in conspicuous consumption. Veblen goods, pecuniary emulation and “keeping up with the Joneses” have run their course. Watch aficionados have finally tired of paying $10K over MSRP!
@jjlad5037
@jjlad5037 4 месяца назад
Tulips.
@shonz88
@shonz88 6 месяцев назад
Yes it has……..
@AshleyGordon-dt1zq
@AshleyGordon-dt1zq 7 месяцев назад
Really, who cares? Anyone who thought that watches were an "asset class" now knows that unlike real estate and industrial investments, watches are valued by a totally speculative market. There is no underlying need for them, no essential or base level of demand. Anyone buying them as an investment is taking a very big risk, as those now left holding the baby have found out. I've only ever bought watches because I like them and when the price proposition was good. The manufacturers have always known this. I consider this to be great news - availability is vastly improved and at better prices. It also brings to mind another old saying "be nice to everyone on your way up, as you will surely meet them all again on your way down". Should make for some fun exchanges to dealers and traders who were so snooty when prices were going crazy. Hopefully this new market will shake many of the horrid speculative traders out of the trade.
@Escapement24
@Escapement24 7 месяцев назад
Completely agree - buy what you love, rather than what you think will be "an investment" 👍
@AmitBhandari82
@AmitBhandari82 8 месяцев назад
THAT’s what that noise was! 😂 Great vid bud 👊🏼👍🏼 Will you be moving the Monza? 🤔🧐
@Escapement24
@Escapement24 8 месяцев назад
Thanks man 🙏👍😂 I wore the Monza today for the first time in a while. I think it will stay in the collection...unless I had an offer I couldn't refuse 🤔 Never say never.
@AmitBhandari82
@AmitBhandari82 8 месяцев назад
@@Escapement24 lemme check watchcharts 🤣
@Escapement24
@Escapement24 8 месяцев назад
@AmitBhandari82 I can save you the trouble....it's worth about £4.62 currently, like most of the others in my collection 😂
@AmitBhandari82
@AmitBhandari82 8 месяцев назад
@@Escapement24 gonna dm you on IG
@wagsbass
@wagsbass 5 месяцев назад
Rolex sells 1.2 million watches made by machines every year. Such a waste of money to buy something that over a million other people have. Rolex is the antithesis of luxury, unfortunately there are plenty of people with more money than sense to keep falling for Rolex's marketing. I hope Rolex becomes the Hublot of watching soon.
@omariwelch6972
@omariwelch6972 7 месяцев назад
Buy a different and better watch, why stress yourself out
@masterwatch
@masterwatch 8 месяцев назад
only my opinion but I am expecting new Rolex prices to fall below retail on the Grey Market. I have witnessed a lot of the popular sport models on the Grey Market and I imagine the dealers are concerned that the prices are going to fall further. Again just my thoughts but the over retail value of Rolex watches on the Grey Market was never sustainable and meant that something was very skewed.. without digging too far you would find out that Rolex ADs were selling all their stock to "preferred buyers" and "incentivised" to do so. These market conditions were never going to last and the backlash has probably not fully bitten yet.
@Escapement24
@Escapement24 8 месяцев назад
Thanks for the comment man, I think you make some really interesting points about practices that I think many of us have suspected have been going on for a long time.
@masterwatch
@masterwatch 8 месяцев назад
@@Escapement24 to be honest I am playing it down, I think reality has been worse. Thanks again, good video.
@Escapement24
@Escapement24 8 месяцев назад
@masterwatch thanks buddy, 🙏
@Armchair-Investor
@Armchair-Investor 7 месяцев назад
I think smart people did not leave the crypto market during the downturn. Look at how it performed in 2023 and now in 2024 after the Bitcoin ETFs have been approved in the USA. 😌🤑
@philippesails4973
@philippesails4973 7 месяцев назад
You mention several that money is tight… Hello Brexit 👋 You picked very specific models, undermining your statement. Yes market is down, -14% in 6 months from a peak where the cost up to 3x the retail price… so no big deal. Quite useless commercial video to me.
@Gixer750pilot
@Gixer750pilot 8 месяцев назад
I was in Bath last weekend and in Mallory’s window they had a two tone Rolex submariner in the window that was actually ticking !!!! Not a display but Bly model . So I’m assuming I could t have walked straight in and bought it !!!
@Escapement24
@Escapement24 8 месяцев назад
I've no doubt you could. Even Rolex ADs are getting desperate in the current economic climate and will take any opportunity to shift stock and put pound notes in the bank.
@GM-ii8gs
@GM-ii8gs 8 месяцев назад
Lots of ADs have had a bluesy and the LN since last summer, since grey prices have been close to the retail prices.
@TrojanStarryNight
@TrojanStarryNight 8 месяцев назад
Watches are not an investment, Period!
@Escapement24
@Escapement24 8 месяцев назад
💯 Buy what you want to wear, not what you think it'll be worth in future
@Islandchris242
@Islandchris242 8 месяцев назад
“Gold Daytona is the hardest to get ahold of” dude, you never were into watches before the pandemic obviously, these were gigs, sitting in cases with discounts. You have no clue. Also, anytime new models get introduced they start off real high and always come back down to earth. Welcome to the watch world noob
@Escapement24
@Escapement24 8 месяцев назад
Dude, seriously? Mate I bought my first decent watch (a Seamaster) in 1997. Daytonas might've been the unloved model in the Rolex line up back then, but that was a LONG time ago. Agree they went stratospheric (along with many other Crown models) during COVID, but surely we can't judge the market by comparing it with how it was 10-20 years ago.
@Islandchris242
@Islandchris242 8 месяцев назад
@@Escapement24 I’m not talking that long ago 🤡. Shows you’re truly a noob. 2019 there were still gold Daytonas sitting in cases, collecting dust, then the hype started and discounts were no longer to be had.
@CareOnePlumbingOntario
@CareOnePlumbingOntario Месяц назад
Rol3x can choke on their watches
@Sam123QU29
@Sam123QU29 5 месяцев назад
Rolex is ridiculously over priced. Wake up!
@chillvill1646
@chillvill1646 7 месяцев назад
Inflated to begin with
@Islandchris242
@Islandchris242 8 месяцев назад
Good job reading numbers off a website 🤡
@ChrisM-lb8xw
@ChrisM-lb8xw 8 месяцев назад
Not yet. Wait 2 to 3 more years. You’ll be buying rolex at retail prices 🙃
@MY-ts2id
@MY-ts2id Месяц назад
Rolex doesn’t want oiks buying their product. They won’t ever struggle, they have servicing costs and parts. Keep prices high and demand will fall. Only for a few not the masses
@todd344
@todd344 8 месяцев назад
I think all the luxury watch brands bubble has broke and they’re fallen like a rock and I think it’s funny because there’s nothing worth over retail. I don’t care what it is you pay over retail for anything you’re an idiot as they say I got the London bridge for sale. Would you like to buy it For all those people that buy a watch over retail I own the bridge and I will sell it even though I’m American and I got oceanfront property in Arizona for sale same way the current market idiots were paying over sticker price for their cars and now they got tears because the car markets fellthe housing markets fell. The world in a recession were heading for a great depression with all these dumb leaders that we have throwing free money out and now they’re finding out money is not free.
@remus2001
@remus2001 8 месяцев назад
I find both the the JLC and Bremont stories believable. JLC is an amazing brand, but they’ve raised their prices too much, too quickly. Bremont I simply don’t get at all, and I think they’ve always been overpriced.
@JohnMurch-k3f
@JohnMurch-k3f 8 месяцев назад
Interestingly the new ceo of Bremont has said that they plan to drastically reduce the price points of bremont over the next few years to be more in the £2k - £5k range 🤔
@UserKR13
@UserKR13 8 месяцев назад
Not surprised hearing the Bremont story either. So overpriced its ridiculous.
@Rolexpert
@Rolexpert 8 месяцев назад
JLC is just that ..great watch but not a demand piece..
@enan1468
@enan1468 7 месяцев назад
Bremont is overpriced
@TheMonkini
@TheMonkini 5 месяцев назад
Four weeks ago I got a call from an AD in Spain about the explorer II black dial being available. A week later, same call from an AD in Switzerland. After 3 years of waiting it is too much coincidence. Absolutely the bubble has burst and they are going after those on the waiting list, who like me, were told to their face "You! are not a customer". I turned them down both. The brand is dead for me. Ludicrous experience is not what a luxury brand should offer. Also the whole thing of being a charity and the way they managed their product like dope is beyond gangster. The CEO can eat his watches one at a time. We are talking watches!! If I dont get a rolex, life goes on and without a rolex goes on without regrets and no stress. I am better off without a mug magnet and being judged negatively by wearing a rolex. The founder must be turning on his grave. The CEO now talking about the risk of watches being considered an investment, and judging other brands during watches and wonders as pirates. Too little too late. Just a barometer of the pressure. There are more handsome watches that are better buys. A buy from the personal experience and not from FOMO.
@MY-ts2id
@MY-ts2id Месяц назад
Calm down 😂
@mdesmet9111
@mdesmet9111 8 месяцев назад
I would say the Rolex bubble will have burst once we can buy the popular models without a waiting list. That might be the case for some models, but not for the popular models like the Daytona, the GMT Master II and even the Submariner. What we see now is simply a correction after the rediculous price increases two years ago. Most brands that are giving discounts now, were giving huge discounts three years ago and since then they hiked up their prices massively.
@alfieakaronaldog
@alfieakaronaldog 8 месяцев назад
That is 100% never going to happen now. Rolex could stop production tomorrow and give their manufacturing staff a years paid holiday 😂
@verynormalman
@verynormalman 7 месяцев назад
I toured my watch contacts in mid January. They were all suffering their own version of the watch cost of living crisis. There is no commission. And they weren't even trying to chase anybody who entered their establishments. I was told that almost every brand was experiencing competition from discounting, if not directly, but by voucher, additions, or gifts. This was very demotivating for the sales staff. Watches had a big up, and they will now swing back to form an equilibrium. With Rolex's new factory, that brand must be very vulnerable. The rude, and may I say vile treatment of customers over the last 3 years has made me realize that it isn't a premium brand.
@oddpout
@oddpout 8 месяцев назад
Its crazy to think how much price raising were going on in the past few years
@KRSchannel
@KRSchannel 7 месяцев назад
Not sure why anyone wants to look at wrist watches as a stock?: watches are not an asset or an investment, not sure who started this losing scheme. Buy any watch you want because you want to wear it, tear it and just throw it out, you'll bring more stress to your life when you buy them as an investments. It's like collecting baseball cards, 1 out of 10000 might go up in value by 200%.
@scottr3141
@scottr3141 5 месяцев назад
Exactly , it's like buying Beenie Babies back in the day . They're ended up being worth nothing.
@jamesnash7262
@jamesnash7262 8 месяцев назад
…this was eye-opening Simon ! the JLC, Bremont and Rolex stories are apocryphal…and as you remind us the industry fell over themselves hyping steel sports watches, each more eager than the last to exploit that market, i’m looking at you Odysseus, a watch i frankly like…the bright side is it encouraged people to look at Japan and independents and vintage pieces…there’s also now a big A in the room that wasn’t mentioned but continues to have outsize influence and that of course is the Apple watch…
@twowheels833
@twowheels833 8 месяцев назад
But who'd want to buy a Brement - an over-priced brand, up its own arse?
@exvan3571
@exvan3571 7 месяцев назад
They met a farmer in some part of Normandy who was the Red Baron. Or something.
@Mike-r7m2m
@Mike-r7m2m 3 месяца назад
Over supply of Rolex? Where are they? All the AD's claim that there are none. Oh that's right, they are in the safe waiting for high volume regulars. Smoke and mirrors as usual. It's no surprise to me that the brands that actually make products to sell have dropped the least. To my friends at Rolex: 1. Make more watches to actually sell. 2. Police the pay for play nonsense of your AD's. Then maybe you will stabilize your market.
@tibhen8473
@tibhen8473 7 месяцев назад
In Thailand to get a Rolex you need to buy a Tudor 😂 so instead I bought a JLC and a seiko, those brands accepted my money 😂
@hdvaco
@hdvaco 6 месяцев назад
which jlc model do you bought?
@verynormalman
@verynormalman 6 месяцев назад
Really? When you buy a fake Rolex, you have to buy a Tudor fake? I went to the Bond St boutique of JLC a few months ago, and was totally underwhelmed by the quality of their watches. I am used to vintage, which seems much better. Perhaps they are doing a Mercedes in reducing quality. Of course no one fakes a Seiko. They do their own.
@tibhen8473
@tibhen8473 6 месяцев назад
@@verynormalman Real rolex, they are plenty of rolex ADs here in Bangkok. JLC is better than rolex in most areas, everyone agrees on that, attention to details, finitions, warranty 7 years...
@juniorjohnson5961
@juniorjohnson5961 8 месяцев назад
Never pay retail & never pay over retail IMO
@Escapement24
@Escapement24 8 месяцев назад
I don't think there are many watches commanding over retail at the moment!
@patrik3450
@patrik3450 8 месяцев назад
Depends. I don’t want a pre owned watch.. 😅 just like I don’t want a pre owned car. Bad bad experiences
@juniorjohnson5961
@juniorjohnson5961 8 месяцев назад
​@@patrik3450 I bought a Regulator clock at a resale shop then took it to a clock repair shop she told me the same. Never buy a used clock it's like buying a used car you never know what your gonna get. Or a box of chocolate. Forest Gump.
@Sams911
@Sams911 Месяц назад
not much of a burst going on if you ask me... tried to get the GMT Meteorite dial from 5 different stores, they laughed me out of the store... cheapest I can find is a $56000 for a 2024 gently used... so much for bubbles.
@Escapement24
@Escapement24 Месяц назад
That one's always going to be one of the more sought after pieces and consequently will continue to hold strong values, but whereas more common or garden models like steel Subs, Air King and Exp were trading well over RRP 2 years ago these are now easily available from ADs in most countries from what I see and am being told
@danh9442
@danh9442 8 месяцев назад
If you are a watch lover then as you say "I don't buy watches as investments". I doubt the sincerity of "watch lovers" who care about investment. Just my tuppence.
@Escapement24
@Escapement24 8 месяцев назад
I agree 💯 I've never bought a watch because I think it'll appreciate in value...but on the flip side I have been disappointed when I've wanted/needed to sell a watch only to find that it's worth almost nothing 😭😂
@clifgavin8568
@clifgavin8568 8 месяцев назад
Couldn’t agree more!
@dylvasey
@dylvasey 6 месяцев назад
Isn't that drop based on the peak though? A year ago a Rolex (in general) was at an unsustainable peak.
@Escapement24
@Escapement24 6 месяцев назад
Completely agree, but people were paying those peak prices and are now in negative equity
@mondeo984
@mondeo984 4 месяца назад
Im still ready to pay full retail price for a Batgirl or a Datejust 126333. Totally out of the question to buy a used Rolex over retail, never in a lifetime. Love to see people who are just out for a quick buck have to exit, maybe it will make it faster that I get my well decerved Rolex in a fair decent trade.
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