Holy fuck, somebody whom actually reads and UNDERSTANDS financial reports is talking in the context of other data points about watches. This is awesome.
So I retired a little bit more than 2 years ago and made out a budget for my retirement grail watch. To my chagrin, every time I went back to have a look, the price went up and availability went down. Also the value of my purchasing budget went down due to inflation. So, as you stated, I bought nothing. I have learned a lot about watches in the meantime. Thank-you for this video on the economics of watch purchasing. I can almost foresee when I might be able to purchase that watch yet. Rolex has left a sour taste in my mouth, so it won't be a Rolex.
Completely agree with you on Rolex. Add, the other day I went to a local Shell gas station. Both guys behind the counter had on Rolex. One of them a two tone Oyster, the other a Sub. I've been to this gas station many times since it first opened over the years, its around the corner from my house. I've met the owner so they were employees. First. obvious questions was, is it real? Second was its obviously for flashing. Not hating on the players but it kinda turned me completely off of Rolex. Basically, the branding is very hyped that it took away the appeal of wanting one. Its like the iPhone, everyone has one so what makes it unique?
I love Rolex because of its history, durability and how comfortable they are on the wrist. If more people hate the brand, then I'll get more chance to buy more Rolex. I have 3 at the moment, a Reverso and a Tudor.
@@vons3745I think you’ll you find they’ve probably both been to Thailand or Vietnam or know someone who has. I’m in Thailand now and can get a superfake for around £300-500. Didn’t stop me getting my GMT Root beer from the AD tho, Rolex will always be worth something and are still great watches. None of us will ever get a desirable AP or Patek by going to a main dealer.
Covid and the watch market shenanigans did one thing from my perspective. It killed any desire to buy a rolex in any form whatsoever. While "waiting" on the list I researched other brands. I will never buy a rolex watch at retail or on the aftermarket. They are fine watches but there are so many options out there that are more interesting. Omega is really doing some amazing things that I was overlooking and the most exciting thing I'm seeing is their use of alternative materials like ceramic for cases as well as titanium. My only reservation with omega is the size of their watches. 42-44 is just too big but I still really like what theyre doing.
Similarly after four years on a waitlist for a watch from Watches of Switzerland I’m certainly not going to buy now to help prop up their balance sheet when they couldn’t respect me as a “keeper” compared to a “flipper” clientele.
Same, and I do like the work going into the Omegas, there is so much more detail.The covid and grey market dealers really did leave a lingering sourness for certain brands.
I sold an ap diver acquired in 2012 … never felt better … it totally diluted the joy of having a watch you liked … once the plebs got into it … it just became trash …
lol I did the opposite during Covid. My Breitling, Omega, and Tudor all lost significant value from retail prices and I tend to get bored and move on. I sold all of them at decent losses and put myself on a registry for a sub-date. Received that in 3 months and 8 months later received a Batgirl. Could sell both of them now for thousands more then I paid for them but they’re amazing watches (size, styling, and value) and don’t have any desire to sell at this time.
I’ve been a Rolex owner for over 11 years and always buy new from main dealers. I’ve never followed watch markets and came across this by accident. Two weeks ago I was in Geneva airport and decided to treat myself in the Rolex shop, after talking to the sales lady I discovered they had no watches for sale , she told me I needed to put my name down on a list . Like a fool I said ok let’s go , oh no she said you can’t do it here 😂 you’ll have to do it in the uk 😂 I laughed, she went bright red , I walked out . Well done Rolex I won’t buy another.
Has to be at your local AD. No fly-in, no surrogates. Keeps a level playing field. Many of they watches still retail under market value so it's understandable.
@@RasenRambo23 Is it really "understandable" though? If I don't want to make a quick buck buying and selling and am actually interested in the timepiece, this would just piss me off...
@@silv3rArrow They're selling something under value. They are giving away money. I think it's understandable if they don't just take your word for it when it comes to your motivations. There have to be some tangible criteria and those still seem fairly soft to me. Imagine, I could stop working and just travel the country, putting my name on lists for watches that have the highest margin when flipped. Obviously ridiculous and reasonably preventable this way.
@@RasenRambo23 I see your point, although that seems to be created by Rolex themselves. The good old “limited supply to increase desirability”: If everyone could walk in a Rolex AD and buy a Daytona there would not be any flippers. It would “dilute” the brand because all of sudden it would be accessible to everyone. But that is Rolex’s decision.
@@silv3rArrow They would be run badly if they didn't do that. It's common in everyday life. You drive a car? The petrol price is finely tuned based on the chosen oil output. Disdain for that kind of practice is not a driving market force, obviously. To be in that position in the first place, you have to have created innate desirability and Rolex is certainly to be commended for that.
This is now my favourite watch channel. I can always rely on you for intelligent and well thought out comments on various aspects of the watch market and watch collecting. Love what you are doing. Long may it continue to!
Some luxury watch brands cynically raised prices substantially last year so deep discounts now simply bring their end user prices back to where they were!
Feels like you’ve been sitting in my head and gathering data. Not that I would be able to put it together the way you did, but what you have explained is pretty much what was driving my watch purchase decisions in the last 8 months. Price/value over brand name, deliberations on whether “this is €8k watch” or maybe it’s better to get 2 or sometimes even 3 other pieces for the same money with less flashy name on a dial.
You want, what you want. Sure, if you don’t want a particular model but a set of specs - any fitting watch will do, the cheaper the better. That’s how militaries have been procuring watches. But if you’re after a Rolex Sub per se, no other dive watch will do, even if it’s a better watch on paper. Humans are quite irrational beings.
@@petrokersta5293 When you like only one watch then your decision making is already done. When you’re on a hunt for a specific type/genre/feel of a watch you have hundreds if not thousands to choose from. There is no right or wrong here. Every feature of a watch has it’s pros and cons, brand name included. You’ve called out Rolex - some choose it for being synonymous with success, others choose to avoid it because it’s too obvious (money like silence etc.).
This is also my philosophy since the beginning. I prefer 2-3 watches with good value and less status brand on the dial. According to the current social trends I still believe, this is the way to go. Why not buying a Louis Erard, a Maurice Lacroix, a F.Constant or a Longines or Oris instead of a Rolex: this is the same pleasure on the wrist. The watch market will come back to passionate people instead of speculators and investors...this is optimistic.
If one is in a position to buy the watch they like, then sure it’s a good time to buy. Don’t just buy smth because the price is good. It won’t make you happy. I’ve always wanted a Speedy. Over the years prices kept rising to a point I almost gave up on it. I was looking at cheaper watches trying to justify the value. It’s good I haven’t pulled a trigger on any of the alternatives. Finally I found a mint 2021 Speedy full set for a fair price. It was totally worth waiting for.
I disagree. Don't buy Rolex now. Don't bail out the AD'S that have been screwing the average watch collector for years with their "pay to play" scheme. Let them sink. If they want to sell Rolex let them call their preferred clients and sell it to them.
@@patrik3450u weren’t a sucker it’s a beauty, just enjoy it, sometimes you’ve just got to buy it otherwise you end up buying something else that doesn’t live up to what you really wanted
There is a lot of youtubers basically saying the same thing within watches, cars etc. I believe you differentiate by not just talking about the obvious basics and trends but doing your own analysis and with mixed topics it's really interesting to follow. I hope your channel will keep growing!
I agree newer brands, ranging from Formex to SERICA, Zelos and Traska, bringing real value for money and immediate availability, will attract both watch enthusiasts and normies who will think twice before spending North of €6 000 on entry level models. Yes, Omega, I’m looking at you.
Omega is the best in my opinion. £5000 buys your one of there best models.. There not to flash so as the thieves won’t be interested. But they are bomb proof. Accurate and look great..😊 Stuff Rolex I’m getting rid of my Daytona.. To flashy and I look like I’m showing it off.. Up until covid no one noticed it really,sort of under the radar..
@@Only-one-life-68 well £5 k is about €6 k. A bog standard Omega SeaMaster Aqua Terra 150 41 mm on a steel bracelet is €6900. OK, it’s a certified Master Chronometer, with a nice looking caliber, but do you get ten times the satisfaction of rocking a Traska Commuter ? From my 12 years in this hobby, the answer for me is no, you don’t. The worry free experience of wearing the Traska when you’re out and about probably makes it more enjoyable than worrying about getting your shiny Omega scratched. Fortunately, many premium watch brand buyers think differently 😉
Plenty of aqua terra new on grey market around 4k gbp. I picked up a mint one for 2.5k box papers delivered. Older versions 3k brand new. I also have several others like zelos, nth, and other microbrands and they all make me happy. Given how difficult it is to get new zelos pieces, I wont be surprised if they get added to the robbers list.....
Just got a 23% discount off an omega at shades brand new from AD. Definitely bargains to be had at the moment if you shop around and play AD one off the other
@@piseff2023It's not about individuals, it's about the market. If no-date subs were outselling date subs by say, 10:1, then it obviously makes sense for Rolex to manufacture more non-dates to keep up with demand. Unfortunately, many manufacturers don't seem that interested in what people actually want and are content to keep producing watches that don't sell whilst the few models that do sell are going for a premium on the secondary market. This only helps resellers, the manufacturers keep pouring money into watches that nobody will buy and customers can't get the watches they want without paying a premium to what are essentially, scalpers.
Some brands basically doubled the price for their watches on catalogs. On 2019 a seamaster 300 was £3400, today is £5400. Of course, no one pay the official prices. If the demand go down, watch sellers will need to apply more discount. I bought two Seiko Prospex and both of them were on 40% discount. The heritage turtle was almost half price new from a shop in UK. What keep this industry going are the new markets.
Currently there is 30% off the majority of in-stock Omegas at my local AD in the UK, in-store only. January/February 2023 it was 20% off slow-selling DeVilles and Constellations, this year the discount is deeper and being applied to a wider range of models. The best offer I have ever seen on Omega. Very tempted by the 40mm DeVille with the Pine Green dial on a leather strap. Heavy discounting of entry-level luxury and mid-range watches too, particularly Raymond Weil and Tissot.
@@patrik3450 Yes, there have been huge discounts on the Tresor here too, more than the 30% on the rest of the range. Also Longines La Grande Classique . . . all discounted by at least 40% with more than 50% off on some models. Even some versions of the Conquest are being reduced.
As a lifelong watch lover, a moment of clarity recently passed over me in an awesome wave. Wearing $8k-$12+k on your wrist seems a bit tacky to me. So I sold off all my high end stuff, kept a bb58, 2254, and a grand seiko. I've never been happier. Although I would add Vacherons 1921 and Everest DT if I hit the powerball. Thank you.
Bought a zenith defy skeleton in January 2024. I told AD I’ll buy it but you need to give me a material discount or I’ll get it on chrono 24 (I was polite about it). AD received it the day before and had been waiting 3 months to receive it (supply is low). AD came back (after calling owner) and offered 15% off. I figured that was fair, deal done.
Always insightful...thank you! I just bought my first real luxury watches over the last month...Tudor BB GMT w Opaline dial and the Grand Seiko Yuka Momiji....both beautiful watches that I really enjoy wearing...on the list for my first Rolex steel sport watch, but will need to wait. There is only one Rolex AD here in Edmonton, Alberta Canada.
Love that opaline dial, congratulations! I surprised myself by buying a BB58 GMT root beer (hadn’t previously been interested in Tudor) and absolutely love it.
@@fepattonI also bought a tudor root beer gmt. Originally was gonna buy the pepsi with black dial, but waited to see the root beer in person. When I saw the root beer, I bought it on the spot cause it was just so beautiful.
Manufacturers have been moving prices up as they want their products to be seen as "luxury". Omega has completely messed their market with their rises as you mentioned with the Speedie. I have been considering one but the price hikes are too much, so I'll buy a pre owned.
Great to see your videos get over 100k views.. very happy for you!! Keep it up.. and I usually watch the little view ones... I want a NOMOS and my prime minister wears in IWC Portuguese
Beautifully presented as usual, your a great orator Mike. They definitely got greedy, even Rolex's flagship store on Bond Street London's completion has been put back to 2025, I mean what the hell are they going to fill 3 floors with 🤣 The long term watch collectors, and watch enthusiasts have been fed up with situation of the last 2 years. I've been waiting for Rolex DJ, fluted bezel with blue motif dial, they offered me a black one 6 months ago, which I turned down, and I'm now fed up waiting, the dream has faded and I no longer want one, so will turn that down too, and look at watches I can get when I want them.
@@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch This Rolex is #1 in market share , do they care about winning back their bread & butter customers who only want to buy one watch to commemorate a life event? I don’t see it. CPO only further drove me and many others away.
Excellent video with data supporting. It's great to see an honest assessment of the industry. I do see this falling more in 2025. Fuel prices are over $4.00gl. Groceries up 35-45%
In short, its a buyers market with larger stock surplus and lower prices. As you said however people are more shrewd with their spending and with good reason. Their are a lot of economic indicators that show a recession on the horizon and people are building up their saving and spending their money more wisely. A friend of mine is a building contractor and he builds a number of buildings a year. The last six months he has seen a huge uptick in people rather renovating and doing it themselves that investing in expensive construction projects. Hope you have a great weekend Mike! Stay safe and blessed my friend!
Another great video concerning the watch market! So true and so expected! Meanwhile,I just won a CW C7 Rapide on ebay for just $375 and looking for it when it comes in.....
Recently bought a . . . Muhle Glashutte - 29er Casual 'Edition Saxony' Blue Dial . . . the watch shop voluntarily provided a significant discount. Their Web site 'First Class Watches' also have a shop - which was full of shoppers at lunchtime - he said business has been good since November. The watch gains 2 seconds a day which is better than some older Rolex models and the watch is thinner than most Rolex models. So thin watches are possible at the bottom end of the luxury range. The design may appeal to people who prefer a minimalist look.
I am definitely being drive towards buying smaller brands. Here is a good example: Omega AT Good Planet Titanium. Pre covid 5k cad. Post covid 8k cad. You know what has the same specs, and even beats it out in some area (like thickness)? Christopher Ward Twelve ti. 2.5k Cad and ill take the mrs on a vacation with the savings.
We think alike. The money brands save me because they’ve lost control of their distribution (sold only to a few celebrities and mostly to flippers and then languish on grey sites for months) goes to buying me Biz class seats to DXB, SIN, KL, BCN, etc.
I have just watched your video and I would like to confirm the trends you stated: - Middle East and Asia are the markets of growth for watches: I was in Japan in August and in Taiwan in September 2024. The volume of window shoppers was quite small, and the volume of real buyers in premium boutiques for Omega, Grand Seiko, Breitling, IWC was substantial - Buying watches for under retail: I bought Omega Speedmaster Moonwatch Sapphire Crystal in Tokyo in August 2024 for $7,300 (converted from japanese yen). The current price in US is $8,000 and in EU is €8,800. In Taiwan boutiques Breitling was offering a 5% discount across all watches and even threw in an extra leather strap/bracelet for free. Grand Seiko offered an 8% discount on the key model SBGA211 ‘Snowflake’. 2024 and 2025 might just be good years for watch enthusiasts after all.
Great insight on how watch economy works, the same is observed across on corporate high jewelry. Brands won’t learn as they are mainly focused on the current market trends, when they can’t sale they dump it on employee sales or grey market, got a couple this way. Personally, I don’t think I’ll ever pay retail, Rolex wait lists are ridiculous. There are many options, I tend value the specs over brand status, still think I did well choosing an Omega and an IWC, although the omega is far superior and costed less, I use it almost everyday, it’s a tool and I feel naked without it. Watches are very personal objects, is a very personal object, is pointless having multiple.
It's great hearing people are getting discounts. Is there any way we could post model, % discounts, location, dealer in a dedicated section? Mike might be interested in having this 'real time' data? It would be also help those subscribers looking to purchase soon, rather than having to wait for 'offical reports'.
My Omega AD salesman stated he suspected a decrease in sales during and after Covid due to inflation. Inflation hasn’t stopped. People are spending less. People are nervous. The last thing on most people’s mind is luxury items such as wristwatches.
Omegas is their own worst enemy. Bloated catalog, too many LEs, refusing to improve bracelets with a nice taper (some bean counter saving them money buying same-sized links 🤦♂️). Prices are an issue but theirs aren’t way out of whack.
I've always been a used watch buyer, and the one VC I've been keeping an eye on has been dropping in price, slowly but surely. Six months ago people were getting $18-20k. I've seen them sell for between $13,500 and $16k in the past couple of months, but even the one at $16k has been sitting there for a months now (the listing first appeared in September, with a price of $20.5k). Luckily, I wasn't ready to buy yet, and at this point, I'm going to hold off for now. There have been other deals that I snapped up. A used $6k msrp watch for under $2k, etc. I tend to buy brands that are not exactly mainstream, and if I see a great deal, I go for it.
Great video and good analysis! My strategy? Screw Rolex, and purchase other brands on the secondary market later this year. I can wait longer, if needed. But priorities will shift, even more, in the US, to other needs,
Hi Mike, All the high street brands in the UK apart from Rolex and Hot Tudor have been discountable for years/ever. Tudors are now all fully discountable. Precious metal Rolex's have also always been more or less available, and I do not think Hot Steel ones ever will be personally.
I was in a town centre, and I told a AD you will now see watches like the Longines Zulu Time return to its original release price, “ we won’t sell them for that” well you won’t sell them then. Brands like tutor are going to be absolutely hammered in the United Kingdom. They’ve gone way over the top with Price increases and whilst you will have some sales they will only be around 40% of the sales you were getting in 2022. Brands like formex Christopher Ward Baltic and monta are going to clean up all of that money that brands like Omega and Longines will lose.
Not as many cuts this week. That’s ok because the focus was on the script. You covered a big topic today. You hit most of the perspectives. I was the wanted to buy couldn’t find what I wanted so gave up. Prices are still higher from the holidays. They have to come down.
Omega S300 in green was offered to me with 20% discount. Actually the only watches I paid full list in the last three years were Rolex and desired Tudor. All others with 10 to 40% below r.r.p.
After watching this video I instantly subscribed because the topics of discussion were way more mature than any other watch channel! Brilliant video, keep it up 👏
Brands and AD had ignored the actual watch buyers of watches focusing their marketing resources and communication to IG influencers, snoobing buyers, now the tide has turned.
Another great video. Analysis of the industry and brand behaviour is interesting and certainly better than sponsored content hype. Great presentation, too 👍
I too am tired of the waitlist/artificial scarcity/over-msrp-bs. Not going to buy anything this year unless I see something I truly adore and at a great price .
Thank you for the Saturday drop - none of my other watch channels released anything. The WoS warning was solely due to Rolex not sending them the precious metal sport watches; they still sold every Rolex steel sport watch; but top and bottom lines didn’t meet previous expectations. Maybe the Bucherer scenarios you envisioned are starting to happen? IMHO LEs turn people away. After a while frustration sets in. US economy isn’t doing great - pesky inflation and a lot of layoffs; but the tech segment of the stock market is; if BTC explodes I think luxury watches will get a boost. And I’m still a little skeptical of the Rolex ‘getting the call’ info. I’m guessing these are smaller markets - or the UK where crime is out of control.
A couple of ADs claimed the Speedmaster Racing (44.25 white dial) was hard to get. Nevertheless I was given between 16 and 17% off retail at my AD, and got it within three weeks. It is a watch I fell in love with, and saved a couple of years to get. Every time I look at it, I am happy. I was seeing 20% off on grey market. Thanks for this video. Very informative.
I just bought Longines hydroconquest GMT from AD. £2650. Brand new. 15% discount. Omega AD and Breitling AD offered me 15% off some new models o in store
I think that they will keep the current prices it is very difficult for brands to lower their prices. The market is controlled from greedy companies unfortunately selling products that have zero practical functionality and offer only emotional value.
@@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch haha absolutely not at all. My friends talk about football or other guy stuff but never watches. I am the only one who is interested in that topic. I love your videos ❤️
I have an unrelenting yearning for the 126500LN but cannot stomach the thought of paying £30k for a piece which retails for just over £13k on the grey market. (2024). The alternative of waiting ten plus years for acquisition at an AD is equally unappealing. How did it come to this Rolex?
For a lot of brands the question is how to they avoid the public perception of avoid cutting prices while at the same time cutting prices. My prediction is we will see a number of new models released quickly, that come in at the a lower price point by being 95% of the watch for 80% of the money rather than discounting the current watch. Example, Omega and its new Apollo Eight Dark Side of the Moon. They have recently released a new model at a higher price point. Replace the hand crafted rocket with a conventional hand, replace the yellow with a different colour, and cut at the price point of the old model. At the same time you continue to produce the limited edition (the one with the hand crafted rocket) in smaller numbers, probably extending the estimated shelf life of the model. R&D on new models will be cut massively. You now have a new model for very little R&D spend that meats the market expectations in turns of pricing, and you continue to get a return on your investment. Profits will be less than you hoped but you avoid the public perception that the model has failed. If you are Omega, you look at your massive catalogue and over time trim variations that are not selling. Expect to see a not of headcount cuts this year,
I'm noticing many private sellers ditching good watches at giveaway prices. I'm not talking Rolex flippers here caught with their pants down. I suspect most bought intending to keep but need some cash now. My family responsibilities are complete (Bank of Dad closed some years ago). Many young parents with families to raise and mortgages, taxes, utilities and food to pay for must be feeling a hard squeeze. I'm looking to purchase several long wanted watches during this year but I feel no pressure to act quickly. At best the World economy is in the bottom of a shallow valley and things will not improve soon. Worst case could make the present situation seem like Nirvana.
I've wanted a Bluesy for a while, but honestly if I do get the call.... I don't know, I may do the sacrilege move and pass on the watch... or just delay it until another big life event. We'll see.
Fantastic video. Love hearing about the reality of the watch world and not just having another watch pushed on us. Thanks for sharing just great information.
It s a watch- a wear one that my grandad bought in 1934. I like the fact that it marked the events in his life, my dads, and now mine. It does nt have any complications, chache - it has history. :)
It seems that since the Pandemic started through today, the Swiss watch manufactures are more concerned about their grey market RESALE VALUES then delivering the watches people want to buy. Judging by the Deloitte survey you highlighted, people are tired of waiting for the privilege to buy Rolex. Do you see Rolex backing away from resale value and getting more inventory to display at their AD's?
Their new factories are a few yrs away; word is that it’s hard to find younger people willing to go into watchmaking. So other than making more of the hot watches (steel Daytonas, Subs, GMTs) they don’t have options.
Rolex want to control the entire supply chain and lifecycle of their watches, but even they have to accept that not everything they make is eternally desirable. Some things will sell below retail. 😊
Maybe it’s a location thing , but ADs always give discounts . It may not bet 20 to 30 plus like years ago but 10 to 15 is quite common at least in the USA
Informative but i think the fact you don't talk about interest rates is surprising. If you can park us dollars in bonds and get 5%, people are less likely to spend, and secondary sellers are less likely to hold onto stock for a long time
Very good. So reassured that in the Deloitte 'purchase motivation' table you showed, the UK was THE ONLY country in the world where buyers picked 'design' as their preeminent motivator. Not entirely sure its true, but I'm glad British people at least believe that that's what they're doing (as they relentlessly buy Rolex and Tudor!).
Thought provoking, the cycle of consumerism is interesting. I have never heard of the term "bullwhip" in business before nor the explanation. Our watch and secondary market is depressed in Canada. I have had an Ebell 1911 dress watch and a Seiko SLA065J1 divers on consignment for a few months with no interest either. With the taxes and economics as they currently are things will pick up a year or two after the US. I will try again then. So I have regained then and wear them for enjoyment. That eliminated sellers remorse. Thank you for your time and another excellent vid on the market. Regards, Chris
so a video idea would be up and coming watchmakers that people are excited about. Who they are, what brand did that start off under; why people are excited about them, what they're doing now.
Makes sense, interesting content as always. However, also, as usual , there is a random sweeping statement about a brand that fundamentally doesn’t make sense. Why would a Journe customer “gravitate to Rolex” away from Journe? This is like saying a Ferrari owner gravitates to BMW!.. Nonetheless, thanks for trying to be more thoughtful than other watch channels.
I just got a mint Omega De Ville Hour Vision Co-Axial 18K new full Omega service, warranty from a registration dealer, price app $ 6000 incl insured delivery.
@@iinlane I’d been monitoring this watch for 1/2 a year(been my grail watch for a long time). It was 10.000 then reduced to 8.000 as a bargain … I politely asked the dealer if they would consider a bid. Gold and borderline dress watches are not moving at all at the moment!
I'll never understand how customers seem to be glutton for punishment. The whole "build a relationship" bs really sours me on the experience as you are beholden to boutique employees and the watches tend to go to flippers regardless. I worked way too hard for my money to have to work to spend it.
In the chart at 4:30 showing (PROPOSED) 5 buying choice parameters only UK Switzerland and Germany have the same group of 3 choices, With Brand image not being one of them - only UK puts Design in top place from ALL countries. Surveys like this sometimes bring out the altruistic values in many folk, not their actual purchase
Got the call for my Rolex GMT root beer in Dec after waiting 2 years. My ultra favourite though is the VC dual time in blue or black, the black is now going below retail on the grey market with the blue close behind, but only abroad, the UK Market is still dearer.
For me, these brands just need to take a chill pill on the price rises and let people's wages catch up a bit. Omega have comprehensively priced themselves out of the range of what feels reasonable for their core market. I own two, with the last purchased in 2021. I'd love a Saffron AT, but buying a third Omega just isn't worth it anymore. It's almost as if they forget they make an entirely discretionary product that absolutely no-one NEEDS. And ditch the endless celeb endorsements and ambassadors. Other than Daniel Craig I literally cannot remember a single celebrity Omega have paid to wear their watches at premiers and other events.
I don’t how or why ADs stay in business representing Rolex. Customers can’t walk in and buy a Rolex. Today I walked into an AD. He had the Rolex model I was interested in but couldn’t sell it. I wasn’t surprised by that. I was interested in seeing the Grand Seikos he had. They were available for immediate purchase. The salesperson told me that Rolex wants you to wait for it.
Very well researched and informative, thanks. What's going on is the market going back to normal. And given how much the brands have taken the p!ss in hiking prices, they're up for a substantial correction. Richemont, in particular, are heading into trouble, not unlike 10 years ago when they banked everything on China, just to see sales there come down on the back of the corruption crackdown instigated by the central government.
I think this insight about western established markets prioritizing value over brand is very poignant. When a brand surrenders to pandering to a mass market who singularly prioritize brand and prestige over value, it perpetuates this shift in viewpoint - basically brands becoming synonymous with the mentality ‘more money than sense’, which eventually turns into ‘money can’t buy you taste’, which is when those brands have lost the basis of what built their equity in the first place and justified their popularity/prices. It’s an extremely difficult line to walk, but as you outline - the quality and innovation HAS to be there to justify the cost/exclusivity, otherwise the image shifts negatively. Looking at car manufacturers as an example (a bad example because they are so much easier to objectively assess), a Ferrari still needs to be exciting to drive and fast, a Range Rover still needs to be one of the best vehicles off road, to JUSTIFY their prices, even though most people who buy them never exploit these abilities. While watches are arguably much closer to jewelry than a functional thing, I still think this ethos needs to be held to maintain your brand image as something aspirational for opinion leaders (aka watch nerds like us)
Great analysis. I was wondering if I could go to a grey market online store for my Speedmaster in hesalite. I had no no problems so far with mid tier options up to 1,600 USD. I know I will be probably voiding the original warranty, but this doesn't look so bad if they address the possible problem I might face or the product being something that is super reliable. The catch is the price. It's really amazing compared to brick and mortar stores. Anyways, I keep having nice coffee while I watch your excellent videos.
