Swiss watch market exports dropped again in Q2 due to lack of demand overall. Swatch group stock is at same level as 2008. Watches of switzerland cut their sales outlook for 2024. Check swiss financial reporting on sites like “finans und wirtschaft” Quote from the CEO of Rolex (google it): “Dufour: 2024 will be a challenging year. It marks the end of a phase in which all manufacturers have been doing well. In good times, production tends to be too high. When markets weaken, as is the case now, retailers come under pressure to cut prices. This is extremely problematic because discounts damage emotional products like ours.” Is any big player going bankrupt? No. But “flying” would be a mischaracterisation. Cheers 😀 Further quote from Dufour: Interviewer: “Two or three years ago, watches were seen more as an investment than a dream. Cryptocurrency millionaires, for example, converted some of their money into real assets.” Dufour: “I don’t like it when people compare watches to stocks. It sends the wrong message and is dangerous. We make products, not investments.”
Why is it bad? It's very good news for true collectors like us. We get rid of flippers and shady second hand dealers. It's a win, win from my perspective.
I agree. It tells manufacturers and salesmen that they have to earn our money, not vice versa. This means more innovation, better pricing, more availability. All good things. The Swiss are extremely rich, touching grass and experiencing the real world may do the industry and its players a world of good.
Not sure if i got the same message from the vid. For some models this was always true even with rolex. Doesn't mean that the company is not highly profitable. Rolex is maybe the marketing star on the entire planet. They are the epitome of what people consider ,rich' ,lurxury'. A lot of that is build around the waitlists and difficulties to get one. As long as the company makes huge profit they wouldn't sell you a panda daytona even if they had 100000 of them unsold
@@el_manu_el_actually, quite the opposite, a hungry industry innovates and pushes boundaries because manufacturers have sometime to prove. They need to stand out and sell, sell, sell. They got comfortable and cocky during the boom. Treating customers poorly, same boring releases with minor changes, you know the story. Now, manufactures and watch salesmen have no choice but to show some respect to their customers.
The industry is not eager to innovate. Free AI comes up with true beauty that's so easy to achieve - while they choose white gold or platinum, you kidding?.. While their websites' ENTIRE SECTIONS are BUGGED into TOTAL DYSFUNCTIONALITY
Me too. I'm laughing. I dumped my Breitling, Omega, Tag and some others during the hype. I'm loving my share investments, and cheap but fun shitters like Orient Kamasu, and some microbrand stunners.
Those who survived the quartz crisis wont survive the smartwatch, especially because it combines with the mistreat and they disappointment of the mid-class watch lover and collector
The data is nice but one shouldn't mix it up with these brands being not highly profitable. If one is thinking that we are heading towards times when you could enter an AD and take a panda daytona with you or that he calls you within 3 month i only could say good luck. Another point is the data not necessarily showing the difference in between models, there were always some rolex models you could buy at list price without waiting time. Situations are so different for a 1908 compared to a sub
Exactly. I buy watches to commemorate accomplishments and will cherish them for as long as I live. Sucks that scumbag flippers make it almost impossible to purchase models I've always wanted (for retail and not 3x the price).
@@dmoneydmoney6050 the issue (that I think Mike might disagree with) is that you can't predict which models/colours will hold (or especially appreciate), with uncertainty of this to be a function of time (which seems to be backed up by Mike's graphs where you see the over-demand spike at initial release and then you see a non predictable price-time decay function). I am personally suspect that this is a universal truth in the alternative investment markets space (the top gear quote from Clarkson wrt Jag E type always comes to mind).
@@dmoneydmoney6050 the issue (that I think Mike might disagree with) is that you can't predict which models/colours will hold (or especially appreciate), with uncertainty of this to be a function of time (which seems to be backed up by Mike's graphs where you see the over-demand spike at initial release and then you see a non predictable price-time decay function). I am personally suspect that this is a universal truth in the alternative investment markets space (the top gear quote from Clarkson wrt Jag E type always comes to mind).
Considering what's an investment. Like, look up Neil Patel's article about his luxurious watches. A huge problem now is these watch companies' management. 95% have their WEBSITES SO BUGGED, their contact forms are COMPLETELY DYSFUNCTIONAL. Is that anywhere near luxury!?
@@GEMSofGOD_com my prior comment seems to get auto-deleted but forward predicting what watches *might* increase or stay over retail value is a fools game. especially if you compare to traditional asset classes.
Art used to there for enjoyment, then it became an investment. A house, a place to live, now an investment. A car a means of transport, now an investment. A watch an instrument to tell the time, now an investment. Sadly, society is underinvesting in getting itself smarter. Buy the watch you like, enjoy it and if you or your heirs make money off it, consider it a gift from above.
It's a side effect of income inequality. It's the same reason people are becoming musicians, and Instagram influencers, everyone wants a get rich quick scheme because get rich slow schemes don't work anymore. If you work your ass off your whole life now, you'll still die in an apartment you're sharing with three people
Well, let's remember that this is the normal. We just went through abnormal years. All watches should dive from retail because there are loads of them and their actual value is about 1/3 of retail.
All watches are worth a fraction of what they sell for. It costs rolex less than 500 usd to make a submariner, they use less than 2000 usd worth of gold in an all gold watch.
@@dudewithcomedy1 there is a really interesting video on YT that shows a day date 40 has 133.7 grams of gold in it. That’s accounting already for it being 18k gold. In today’s market that is just under $10k in gold. There is more than you think in the current gold market, it’s surprising. I still agree with what you’re saying overall btw. However the gold watches are actually more worth their price than the steel ones where the cost of the steel is likely a few bucks and the gold is harder to machine and smelt etc too as they make their own. Ironic that the steel ones sell for almost the price of gold ones in some cases on the aftermarket.
exactly this was the norm before 2019 happened, i've talked to ADs and they all mention that retail prices of watches are always at the very least 2.5x the production cost
I remember when I bought my first luxury watch. I bought a Breitling Avenger Chronometer. Someone told me “Breitling doesn’t hold value in the secondary market.” My response was “I didn’t buy it to sell it. I bought it wearing.” I still wear it. Great video, per usual.
i love breitling , bought a chronomat some years ago from usa for £2k and wore and owned for about 9 years and sold for £3k , i have since bought super ocean 46mm which with steel strap retail £4500 , managed to buy a 6 month old as new with both steel and rubber stap + first owner extended warranty 5 years , £2800 , don't think i will loose money and maybe in time it may make ... i bought to wear though ( for best ) as have oris aquis , longines hydroconquest , bulova marine star ...........
I tend to buy my watches used. My Omegas and Tudors were all purchased second hand. I bought watches that were months old by less than retail. The drop for Omega is less than for Tudor, which is indeed enormous. My anecdotes match your data perfectly. Needless to say, this is another great video. Keep up the good work.
Same here. I would say 90% of my luxury watches are all pre owned. I always say, if you’ve a reputable watch shop that does authentication, then let someone take the depreciation hit for you
Many years ago I picked up a navitimer b01 for ~60% of RRP... 2 months old... still had some factory seals on it. There's no way you can justify buying new in scenarios like that...
i’d really hate to think that some of those disgusting speculator flipper style people are stuck with things they can’t sell. It would be absolutely terrible if brands like IWC started suffering after their profiteering . I really do hope that those people in the AD who looked down there nose at folk like me when I went to ask about a datejust are ok .
I used this downturn to my advantage and picked up a mint BB58 blue (3 years ago it was a hype watch) for 45% off retail. For $2500 it’s one heck of a value and I love the watch. This is the huge advantage for collectors to the downturn.
Similar case here. I bought a preown Tudor bb DK as I’ve been eyeing it for awhile now, at around SGD2.6k. Retail I check was around sgd 6-7k 😆 Of course some minor scuffs to bracelet is unavoidable, but heck I’m putting it on a rubber strap, so I could care less
I don't have that kind of money, i could not afford anything near that. many watch prices remind me of the Invicta sale on QVC. Over price the value, then discount it heavy to get people excited.
It’s not just the high end. Volumes are significantly down in the under 2k, under 1k, price segments. Justifying *another* watch purchase when you’ve got alot of them already gathering dust gets harder and harder when other expenditure takes priority.
What would really interest me is if we are finally starting to see an overall watch market decline ushered in by smart watches that was just obfuscated by the pandemic. It's become rare to see traditional watches now compared to none or Apple Watches.
I think watches were or still are a sort of counter culture to the smart watch, something people bought to express to others that they don't follow trends, something much more unique than the standard solid black chunk of glass, ironically leading to a trend of wearing traditional watches, especially mechanical watches.
Smart watches are a totally different product. They are functional and quite useful. By contrast, luxury mechanical watches are jewelry that happen to tell time.
@@ttjoseph1 Right, right - they share nothing but the name. Even if they were ‘totally different’ the simple fact remains that people largely are only occupying one wrist so they vie for the same physical space.
It's the opposite. Before smart watches there was a giant constituency using their phones to tell the time. In other words, they had NO timekeeping device on their wrists. I'd argue that smartwatches saved mechanical watches. It is normalizing wearing watches again. For some number of people, that will translate to high end mechanical timepieces.
I have never bought a watch as an investment and I have a selection of the three brands you mentioned. But all were purchased for the memories they were associated with or, generated thru the buying experience. Whether these memories are for me, my two daughters and more importantly my three grand children. Who I hope will have that quiet smile and think of me as they tell the time many years from.
You truly have the best watch channel, informative, unbiased and fair. It's interesting you bring up Adrian Barker, for me when he's not shilling his overpriced Nato Straps he's on a jolly paid for by a watch brand and then gives us his "unbiased opinion"
@@WestCoastAce27 Couldn't agree more. He was just about ok pre- about effing time, after then I realised he's mostly just a shill, and when he's not flogging overpriced Nato straps, he's constantly taking photographs of Rolexes being splashed with water and talking nonsense.
I feel like luxury watches social media is trending towards perfume social media where it will be nearly impossible to get an unbiased option because companys send the stuff to the big channels and even when not paid the influencers have a huuuuge interest to have a good relationship to these brands - because you want another sended perfume/watch to make more content and you want a good representation of the brand to maybe get the panda daytona finally for list price. I mean e.g i love tudor as well but they became so overhyped and you hardly find any sort of critizism whatsoever. Chunky gmt etc and they gone up in price big time
Thank you for all of your great independent reviews/analysis. Great information and not a sellout like most watch youtube channels. You do not have your own store or watchbrand. You do not get free watches for reviews. Just great videos from a true enthousiast. Keep up the good work! Hope your channel will continue to grow!
I appreciate your honest insight into the world of watches! Your presentation is very matter of fact and to the point. Great knowledge delivered in a no-nonsence way. Nicely done!
Great video as always. Investing in watches was a silly idea born out of exceptional circumstances. Now we are having a reality check. I am enjoying a lot my Maurice Lacroix Aikon . A summer watch , elegant , versatile and very affordable, particularly in the second hand market. Cheers.
The secondary market is a watch enthusiast's single biggest enemy. It competes with hosest buyers and collectors and encourages bad attitudes among manufacturers. When they lose, we win.
Love this episode. Really interesting data. I have to say though, the watch in my collection I most enjoy is my Tudor BB58 blue. I picked it up to commemorate a promotion and I adore it. Sometimes “boring” is exactly the right choice for you.
I get that supply and demand will drive the price. What really bothers me is that some dealers won't sell you a watch even if they have it because you weren't the right person for that watch.
Thank you for the excellent news for genuine watch enthusiasts. I have yet to see any price reductions appearing at my local ADs though. Hopefully the 2nd hand market will totally collapse shortly.
Great video Mike. I had a give and take on a popular watch blog about the Morgan Stanley report (specifically Tudor). It’s amazing to me how people dismiss credible data and specifically Tudors hype slowdown. Data will set you free!
Extraordinary analysis.. thanks mate! And yes, I love my Tudor FXD as well .. but my JLC Reverso Tribute Monoface Burgundy small seconds I like a little more. It's not as practical obviously but the design is stunning, it's dead accurate and I'm surprised by myself not being a dress watch guy how much I enjoy this rather subtle and small and comfy watch on my wrist
Very interesting as always! Thanks! I wear my boring-not-so-hype Tudor BB41 monochrome on jubilee, bought on retail price (but I don't care about its resale value as I intend to enjoy it a lot!)
Amazing content as always. Would love to see the same sort of video discussing vintage pieces across these brands - if watch charts have those insights
It happens that I just submitted adjusted values to my insurance for my watches this morning ... Can confirm that values have taken a nose dive ... which means lower premiums for watches that I never intend to sell anyhow!
Investing in watches is silly. Buy what you like because you like it and the money is disposable. If that's a casio great. If thats a platinum tourbillion good for you.
I bought a patek calantrava 3319 in 1995. Never a popular model for collectors. It cost 7500. Worth about 10 now. But I love it. When small diameter comes back into vogue, and they will, my son can have a nice heirloom.
So basically the super rich get to wear super exclusive desirable pieces basically for free(gray market). Which makes the grail watch for us average plebs as impossible to get as Unobtainium. Great video. Cheers☮️
Yes. That coupled with - at least for the most part by Rolex ADs - selling to ‘longtime customers’, not even trying to grow their base. Pretty arrogant to think it will last forever - selling ~5% to new people seems like a no brainer. But they show no inclination to do that or kill/slow flipping by buying back grey watches, tracing them back to the worst offenders.
With the exceptions of 2-3 watches, I have always tried to buy Omega, Grand Seiko, and Tudor used or new with discount of 10-15%. At the moment, discounts from many brand ADs (with a buying history) is pretty good and buying used, esp. from Japan (think Omega and GS), is quite good in terms of pricing and room to negotiate.
Excellent video my friend. My favorite watch channel by a country mile. Insightful. Entertaining. Learn something new in every video. Keep it up. Thank God the hype is over!
I would like to understand the price policy of Richemont Group. April this year, they increased the prices again with no explanation. I am really happy that the hype is dying. Just would like to buy a model for a decent and honest price.
👍 I would love to see a Part 2, with Mike showing the numbers for brands that have had silly price increases or set prices for new releases at ridiculous prices (IWC Ingenieur).
I think Richemont have a simple logic - Raise prices to get people to believe their products are luxury without adding additional product value. Lose some customers, but make money off of those that stay and are fine with the new price point 😀
yeah i'm really surprised a billion dollar company with mountains of sales data didn't consult and explain their actions to random name with a bunch of numbers youtube member.
@@peterharding5184 There is a public Morgam Stanley report that shows that the only Richemont brand doing well is Cartier. Other Panerai and IWC customers have the same opinion. I understand that maybe you are not a watch enthusiast. The backlash over Richemont price policy is quiet public and well-known.
Your insights and analyses are excellent and very much appreciated, Mike. I love your style, your confidence and your information. Thank you very much for all the work and thought you put into your videos, particularly your preparation.
Glad to see this happening for those of us who refuse to overpay. Sorry for those who overpaid. As for Tudor, tried to like them because of the hype. Just every time i tried one on all i could see was an homage. Kinda a boring watch. Good price point, but they are a pass for me.
There were articles in the local (Swiss) newspapers a few weeks ago. Tudor, Rolex and others, suppliers, etc. have and are firing temps and contracted. Strangely this week-end, the Rolex store in Geneva had a long queue of tourists which is strange because non-locals will not get anything there...
Mike gone full on number-beast-mode with this video! Thanks for all hard work, especially with all the interpretation. This must have been a tedious video to prepare.
On occassion I enjoy using excel, so I didn't find it as mind numbing as you would think. But it's a very different kind of vid production wise - yes 😉😂😂
I was an old-school values investigative newspaper journalist 30 years, and this is absolute professional A1 explanatory journalism. Another fantastic piece. Thanks 🙏
It is genuinely disturbing watching the RU-vid videos of high-flying gray market watch flippers from two plus years ago and how they hyped up their product. The comments section of those videos are even more telling of where the market was at. Thank you for another enlightening video.
👍 Sad commentary on society. They were treated like stars. All they were doing was inserting themselves as middlemen for products that needed no help selling. And driving up prices.
Many models from Patek, AP, and Rolex still can’t be bought by just walking into an AD. Patek and Rolex are still making additional production facilities to keep up with demand. Maybe it’s not as much as two years ago, but it’s definitely still there. The watch market has been down 25% the last two years but is still up by 30% if we look at the past 5 years.
Agree. I live in a huge US city; on the list for a non-hype Rolex at 3 ADs for over a year. No call. Near new are still commanding a 20-25% premium. Ridiculous.
Every year we get a more millionaires globally. There's no shortage of customers overall for products that are desirable. These brands in the high to ultra high end will be fine 😀
Fabulous. Best news I have heard all day. Consumer goods nearly always depreciate as soon as they are purchased. Cars, computers, clothes, everything. It’s only because of ‘influencers’, flippers and grey market dealers that some goods (certain watches, Berkin bags, etc) saw massive increases. I have never, ever paid more than new retail price for anything and never will. I never expect any consumer goods buy to increase in value and never regard them to be investments.
18:15 Actually, it is the difference between investing (buying to generate a cash flow) and speculating (buying at a low price expecting to resale later at a larger price).
Would love to hear about AP and JLC. I understand they’re on the same trajectory. I wonder how JKC’s massive price increase after the boom will double hurt them…
I am pretty sure JLC is having a hard time at the moment. A tribue moon goes for half retail at the moment. Most Reversos do, except maybe for the new chrono reverso 😀
Very nicely done, mate. Another point to note is the cost to sell a watch (currently 6% on Chrono24) and, for more expensive pieces, insurance. The former isn't so much of a factor when holding a stock (fees are normally fractions of a percent) and the latter not at all. I feel Oisín O Malley could benefit from seeing this.. 😅
The watch market is on a long bumpy road so buckle up! Word on the street is that Patek Philippe are making a much larger percentage of Nautilus and Aquanauts-they know these will sell even in a bad watch market. I like graphs 📊 as well Mike😎!
Another great video Mike. Very interesting analysis, thanks so much for putting in the time and effort. In answer to your question my green faced IWC MK XX makes me very happy evey time I put it on.
We seem to be going into the microbrand era, where purchasing will be more value driven and the stories behind the watches and brands will be more approachable and transparent. I also think high quality quartz will make a resurgence as many people have gotten bitten by the bug in recent years that rushed into the hobby and are just settling in to what they signed up for.
I agree with the first sentence. Not so much with quartz resurgence :) For quartz I choose g-shock. Simple, cheap, reliable. For mechanical I go with microbrands. Better value for money, better finish and materials.
yep what you could gather from watch charts pretty much matches what one would expectt, doesn't it? I mean who expects a Tudor do trade above retail when it's a pretty much readily available brand...also, Patek always had those hyped outliers in a otherwise solid performing to meh collection that's why those are considered hype:D
Not all of my audience has the insight you do - A lot of people assuming anything Patek and anything Rolex is going to be popular. And some even assign that logic to Tudor too - because, they're "rolex mini" 😀
@@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch I see where you're coming from, and definitely don't have more insight than your average viewer I think (since you are not a superficial clickbait channel, but a deeper-digger one) ;) maybe I phrased too harshly:)
More buyers may be looking at CW and Tissot, rather than Longines and Tudor. Times are hard, and $4,000 isn't exactly 'good value' for majority of people.
I own a few Tudors, Omegas, and Rolexes. I want a Patek and an AP. I really want a couple of LF's and RD's but NONE of it is for investments. It is for my enjoyment, and to leave to my children when I'm gone to remember me and to do with them what they want. Fascinating video, confirming my thoughts about watch investment in general. Bubbles come in all variations.
Same here, instead with CASIOs and Baltanys , lol. If someone wants to gift me a rolex, cool, but I have much better uses for that money than an overpriced watch
You should buy what you want to own, not what you want to flip. I want a Sea-Dweller 116600 because to me it's the best dive watch ever made. I know Sea-Dwellers are a horrible investment, but that's not what I want it for.
Congrats. It’s the Sub for those who aren’t longtime Rolex customers and refuse to pay above retail for a mass produced watch. I have the Pelagos 39 which fills that role in my collection.
Awesome you make this video I was generally curious about this. Since I’m trying to buy my first Rolex and watching the grey market, April month almost no one in Denmark or Norway bought Rolexes, but yet the prices were ridiculous high in a demand supply economical perspective. But I’m actually glad to see numbers back this too, of course they’re still doing well because it’s Rolex. But I was sure that they weren’t as good as we thought
Yeah and for years no one wanted them and they were considered by many as Rolex’s ugliest watch. Just shows the influence RU-vidrs have had on the watch market and peoples opinions.
Most mechanical devices (guns, watches) are relatively poor investments. 1) They don't perform as well as most financial "devices"such as stock or precious metals. Also, when I buy a quality gun or watch I tend to have a psychological attachment to them and that makes them more difficult to trade.
Guns and watches caught my attention - that’s my hobby money pit. I’ve found the trick is to keep both collections at three - buy smart, buy practically - and if you just have to have something, force yourself to part with one and see just how much you REALLY want the new and shiny. Pragmatism forces a stronger bond with what you already have.
This is an interesting comment. Good investing requires zero emotional attachment. Perhaps that is why some people are not as successful with guns and watches. You noted as much in your remark. Fellow gun and watch collector here, cheers.
It's not just watches. Artnews says that Basquiat paintings are down 50%. LPs are defalting on VC funding promises. There's something really powerful about positive real interest rates
The grey market has a lot to answer for. The huge bubble in watch prices which started in 2020 has resulted in a new generation of 'dealers' whose principal job is to sell you second hand watches (particularly certain well known models by certain well known brands) at substantially above RRP. This business model is not sustainable and will slowly bleed away over time. THAT is when i will buy my next Rolex.
This is such a valuable analysis, thank you! Hope your collab with Watchcharts can continue. For me personally, I’ve made peace with the fact that this watch hobby of mine is not an investment. At best, compared to my other hobbies, it is the one that offers the best residual value potential.
Love your watch videos based on facts. No bs. No spin. No vested interests or agendas. So many so called influencers talking up certain brands because they have so much money tied up in pieces.Great video. Thank you!
I'm waiting for the Rolex CHNR two tone "root beer" to drop below MSRP in the second hand market. I think it will be the case in a couple of months. Absolutely crazy to buy any current production watch above retail.
What country are you in? Doubt that happens in the US - way too many wealthy people, more created all the time. Short of a terrible recession or war, very unlikely. If you’re older, I’d say bite the bullet, admit you procrastinated, and pay the premium (this is what I did). If you’re younger, yeah, wait.
@WestCoastAce27 second hand was $20k just 1 year ago, $18,5k today and retail is $16,150. Probably worth a few months wait before buying retail which is now pretty much a walk-in if you have any AD buy history
Boy the non horologically oriented “flippers” are probably going to gobble up this information. What I am getting out your video is that irrational watch collectors are going to save some money on some of the models that are hyped. On another note, if we’re Mr H Wilsdorf I would let all “non precious metal” models fizzle out and discontinue them eventually to make Rolex a mostly luxury jewelry commodity, thus allowing Tudor to take its place as a high quality Swiss watch and at the same time perpetuate my brand by making discontinued Rolex models retain their value as a collectors item. Tada. My two cents. Thank you much for your well researched video and for sharing this data with us commoners.
IMHO that would fail spectacularly. If Rolex stopped selling steel they’d lose a huge % of their appeal. Rolex has won the sweet spot of being aspirational for the top of the upper middle class and lower upper class. And they obviously have no intention of doing that since they’re build multiple new factories. There just isn’t a market for > 1M gold and platinum watches. Mike actually laid out what should be their strategy - get people to move up to more expensive watches. Stop selling 1 steel watch after another to ‘longtime customers’ and get them to ‘climb the ladder’. Use steel as the entry level drug to grow their base.
@@WestCoastAce27 This is assuming that the up an coming watch enthusiast won’t grow tired of the same thing and the competitors won’t put “anything whatsoever” worth their money…oh and that the economy world wide won’t tank at all in the next half a century. Sure, a possible outcome as well.
