Possible reason for Yuriko winrate dropping is that it was very hyped up as being the biggest winner of the bans. This would cause new pilots whose old decks got "nuked" to want to pivot to her with the belief she will be stronger. If this is the case we should see the winrate slowly creep up in the coming months as pilots get more experience.
Long-time Yuriko player. She got a lot of support recently and the bans didn’t hurt, the deck feels stronger than ever right now. Variance and new pilots maybe to blame, but the reality is that Yuriko was never going to become an S-tier deck because even with improvements, it just isn’t that great
I recently chose to build Yuriko, mainly because it seems to me that it mulligans very well, and I consistently get to do the thing. Have some free interaction to actually be relevant at the table. And just maybe occasionally get a win.
@@simonandersen7942 yea exactly! It’s a super fun deck with a lot of flavor and it’s pretty straightforward, but it still scales pretty well with your game knowledge and experience with piloting it. It was my first casual EDH deck many years ago and it was immediately too strong, so it became my first cEDH deck too lol
Resident Godo pilot here. Losing those cards hurt, but the deck still runs just fine, and I won the SCGCon DC tournament with it last week. People overestimated how much the bans would hurt Godo and promptly stopped playing blind obedience, which has been excellent for me.
Similarly, I expected Elsha to really be hurt by the bans, but I have been surprised that she feels stronger now that I don't lose to a random 2 drop goblin if I advance my board state aggressively.
overall I feel that very little in the meta has actually changed. sure explosive starts are much less common but that's systematic of the format and applies to every deck that played the banned mana cards. a lot of people were expecting a whole new format but from the recent tournament results, it seems the same top decks are still topping while playing the same combos and fringe decks still make it in the top16 just fine.
There isn’t really enough data yet to make a video like this, dude. As a Yuriko player myself, she feels FAR stronger in this meta. I have the easy explanation for your gap in win-rate right here: sample size insignificant.
About T&T, from my perspective, couple of reasons. First of all, the format now has 1-2 more turns, and that’s a lot of time for a deck like this. There’s a few different combos and some pieces that has a lot of synergies and this extra time means value. I also think that the amount of interaction you can get in this 4 colours is amazing, valley floodcaller is a good adition, and it’s pretty easy to generate a lot of mana. I feel very safe playing this deck and I love it!
Swift/druid into thrasios is probably the 3rd best combo in the format for power level and mana cost now, red only having 2 good cards instead of 3 automatically makes green better. There is an impact from the additional silence effect from kutzil as well which seems to be the best way to push through wins in interacrive pods.
variance in new pilots for yuriko, yuriko always is vary popular commander and new or inexperienced pilots pick her up tossing her win rate her plan plays alot of "bad cards" in the sense where she will run unbookable creatures and high cmc stuff other decks can run more generically good cards so it can be kind of a trap. my other thought is i ran clones for dockside and my other ninjas so theres a chance less docksides means less good clone targets but time will tell ty for all your hard work
8:43 All the high cmc spells aren’t able to get cast without mana crypt and people are running things that can block Yuriko’s stuff while removing things that make stuff unblockable. Also just steal her with gilded and volatile drake.
As to why Yuriko's win rate might've gone down, are there more people playing it post-ban than pre-ban? If so, then part of the story is that higher % of the players running it are probably new, less experienced, less proficient players trying it out
Most of them don't have that many games in to say something cleare. But over time I will have more games for all or most of the commanders so we can say something.
I mean it's very early to say but since the bans are obviously healthy for casual play and not nearly as impactful as expected for cEDH, I guess we could say the rules commitee accomplished their goals with their last bans.
@@cedhtv p values are in itself wrong to use for events which influence future events. But even if not looking at that statistical oversight, you can round p values.
I think whatever the group think was on a commander will have pushed it’s performance in the opposite direction. Everyone says Yuriko will be good? Lots of new players flock to Yuriko. Everyone says “Godo is dead” only the most committed pilots stay with Godo. That accounts for some of what you see. The other thing is that the total fluctuation just won’t be as big as people thought because; 1) it’s only 3 cards. 2) everyone lost mana crypt and everyone lost dockside or clones of dockside. 3) everyone lost jeweled lotus. So the change isn’t that dramatic It happened to most decks And Whatever the group think was will have actually moved the needle in the other direction
a lot of cedh players on youtube are saying that Yuriko is performing worse just from the format changes. That means that even though manna crypt and dockside being gone didn't improve her chances for more wins.
@@Savage_Mr_Bean14 True, but we've been seeing a lot of new beasts for Cedh commander decks. The Master of Keys comes to mind. Actually, I forgot her name with the Boros doll. There's a fast Boros deck that clips opponents' life totals down pretty quick, and it's still insufficient against these good enchantment decks.
I played Tymna/Malcolm for about a year and i pivot to Tymna/Thrassios and i have yet to play it. I'd imagine the new decks that saw very little play before the bans that people have little experience with will tank the win percentage at first and then with time creep back up. I dont expect to win my first tournament with this deck but im going to try. There may be scenarios that i miss an open window to win due to inexperience.
Makes sense that Tymna Thrasios would get better, red's two best cards were underworld breach and dockside extortionist. This means while red not only got worse, blue doesnt need to run so many clones freeing up even more deck space for other cards they mightve preferred to have been running to begin with. Their weakness, a very fast stomping deck play style, just got worse as well. Meaning that outside of Rog Si just turn 1 winning that there's almost nothing to keep them in check from just stalling the game until they can win.
two items to consider; 1) sample size is too small yet 2) I have not seen any card 100% in these charts (for instance a no proxie tournaments where some entrants could not afford mana crypt) so some of those I think are old pre meta change games. Unless you filtered those out.
I’ve been playing strictly yuriko for the past few years and I can say I flew under the radar in the past but since the bans I’ve played in two big tournaments and one local tournament and I have been arch enemy in every round so far, plus dockside being gone is good but if ever some would cast him and not win that gives me the option to go infinite looping with sakashima student so we did lose a combo even if it was a semi risky combo
I think its less saying it IS a 25% but rather in tournaments it has HAD a 25% winrate. More of a historical/empirical analysis rather than a true probability prediction/determination
TNT doesn’t care at all that jeweled lotus or dockside left. And eveyone lost mana crypt. And it’s a dork deck so it still has consistent ramp. All that and it prefers a world where things go a bit slower. Now I disagree w you about no one seeing this coming. I think most people figured TnT would make a comeback. But that actually tells ME they have gotten more better than they even seem. Because a lot of people left their dead decks to pick this up for the first time. And it STILL went up. TNT maybe goes into A or even S tier now w so many people playing it and working on it.
@@cedhtv How could they make a rash and senseless decision to ban Jlo and Crypt without data or evidence to back it up? sure NADU and Dockside can go the two rocks were what drives fringe commanders to be played. Those two rocks are 2/100 cards.Still furious about it. I hope it gets unbanned. Casual players benefit more than suffer with the inclusion of the two rocks in their decks. AGAIN SIMPLY STUPID RC DECISION.
I think your variables need better notation... like (Featured Card) Inclusion Average WinRate, Exclusion Average WinRate, Total Average Winrate, Post-Ban Average, Pre-Ban Average, etc. Pie chart is good but prob should be labeled as Inclusion Rate. I know you explained the difference but variables should still have different names, prefixes, or subscripts to prevent confusion.
we'll see, we know the rc never banned for cEDH generally(ignoring flash as the exception) but w/ banning and rules management being handed to WoTC there is the possibility that could happen in the future
@@cedhtv Yea, this could be one of the worst developments of the banning, where the gap between the best goodstuff partner decks and everyone else just widens... At least the gameplay is more interesting for my taste, but that is personal
These videos always are. You should go watch the one he made about how Dockside was “not that good”, the math is hilarious. It’s like someone failed statistics in high school, then immediately made a statistics analysis on Dockside’s “winrate”.
Just thinking, as you are precenting these numbers and have done in the past you dont seperate the two metrics of pre/post ban. So the way you think here is wierd to me and not showing at all in how stuff gets better with or without mana crypt. how the numbers say how they fair in the new meta without the manacrypt? also do your data you had before the ban have decks that did not run mana crypt? you have shown data before that had the same showings of "winrate with or without X:card", are those decks now included in this or do you only put in that ALL decks preban had it in them? if so, your showing here dont tell the story as you present it. you only show the number of decks who play and dont play X:card, you than conclude that the diffrence is pre/post ban is decks who now do not play x:card. my thinking all post banning decks winrate are only valued data for seeing how they do in post meta data but judging them in context with pre banning data do not give us a fair view on how they do now. its a faulty compairasation as Pre/post meta is so so diffrent. if your numbers are correct and we look at Ty/thras that "got better", we see that it gets better in the new meta, but if that comes from if it played MC in Pre ban or not is totaly irrelevant, what it does say is how mutch it changed for the better in coalation to the meta. keep it up, you got me thinking
As mana Crypt has been an auto include always. ALL decks with mana crypt in them are from the before the ban. ANd ALL decks without it are from games after the bans. So we are not looking at mana crypt on how good it is. We are jusing my old system to separate the different bans into 2 groups. Using mana crypt as the separater is only a trick. All the decks that didn't have mana crypt in them wasen't playing vs other peoples dockside and other peoples mana crypts. But it is a separation into 2 groups using mana crypt in the deck or outside the deck to see ban effect change.
Until we see a thoracle ban the meta will not change any more than marginally tbh. Dockside ban just made the best decks better and the non-blue decks worse and/or unplayable
@@hv7920 tell me you don’t understand WHY the meta is the way it is without telling me you don’t understand the meta 🤦🏻♂️ dockside was a very impactful card and if you read and understood my comment fully you would’ve realized that but instead responded with a brain-dead reply. I’ve actually never read a stupider and more ignorant comment lmao
This right here, this is whats actually going on, dockside and the mana rocks opened so many strategies and commanders to be played on a competitive level, but now its just like u said, the non blue decks r unplayable and the "best" combo in the format (thassa) just got even better. The format is broken and the RC r just a bunch of noob players who dont understand what EDH/cEDH is truly about.
41 seconds and I already disagree. Sisay and Blue farm no effect? Really? Without jeweled lotus and mana crypt Sisay turn 1 is almost impossible. Moreover Dockside was extremely important for this deck. The same for Blu Farm where casting Kraum now is more difficult.
