Тёмный

What if? The key to making good decisions | Nidhi Kalra | TEDxManhattanBeach 

TEDx Talks
Подписаться 41 млн
Просмотров 163 тыс.
50% 1

Decisions would be so much easier if we had crystal balls to see into the future! But they don’t exist and the world is uncertain!. Nidhi challenges us to move away from making decisions by trying to predict the future, and towards making decisions that will accommodate many different possibilities. By asking "What If?" instead of "What's Next?" we can better prepare ourselves, our communities, and our world, for the uncertain future ahead.
Nidhi Kalra is a senior information scientist at RAND Corporation, codirector of RAND's Center for Decision Making Under Uncertainty, and a professor at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. Kalra’s research at RAND Corporation addresses energy, environment, and science and technology policy. She recently led projects to ensure long-term water security in Lima, Peru and to provide policy guidance on autonomous vehicle technologies. Her clients include the State of California, the World Bank, the U.S. National Cooperative Highway Research Program, the Government of Qatar, the Federal Highway Administration, and the Department of Defense. In 2013, she served as a senior decision scientist in the Office of the Chief Economist of Sustainable Development at the World Bank. She has also developed educational technology tools to promote literacy among blind children in developing countries. Kalra received her Ph.D. in robotics from Carnegie Mellon University's Robotics Institute.
This talk was given at a TEDx event using the TED conference format but independently organized by a local community. Learn more at ted.com/tedx

Опубликовано:

 

21 янв 2016

Поделиться:

Ссылка:

Скачать:

Готовим ссылку...

Добавить в:

Мой плейлист
Посмотреть позже
Комментарии : 81   
@AdventureMomJourneys
@AdventureMomJourneys 6 лет назад
I wish the toughest decision I had to make had to do with buying a piano. This video isn’t cutting it.
@TheReasonstosmile
@TheReasonstosmile 5 лет назад
She is not going to talk about her deepest darkest struggles here. The piano example is meant to set the basic definition of a robust solution.
@winonadaphne6445
@winonadaphne6445 4 года назад
I was not expecting this to lead into a talk about climate change
@troywisehart5064
@troywisehart5064 3 года назад
Thank you. Now I know not to waste my time listening to this person.
@brunosco
@brunosco Год назад
@@troywisehart5064 Why do you see addressing climate change as a waste of time? Do you see it as fake? Or not threatening? (Or too threatening?)
@troywisehart5064
@troywisehart5064 Год назад
@@brunosco Climate change is a scam to convince people to give up their freedom and prosperity in exchange for an Orwellian dystopia. The WEF and all the other alphabet organizations are liars who see themselves as the future and rightful tyrants ruling over a world of slaves. Climate change is their mechanism to bring that world into being. They are winning.
@benjogonzaga5394
@benjogonzaga5394 3 месяца назад
I didn’t see that coming as well
@johnellg9399
@johnellg9399 Месяц назад
Because it's agenda they have to sprinkle in everything
@uklk
@uklk 6 лет назад
Suddenly you changed ur subject to climate, its like i got teleported to another subject
@meherk3322
@meherk3322 3 года назад
' What if ' is really not a great option when making decisions about relationships. In fact, its the one thing that held me from moving on for long. This theory can certainly not be applied to all types of decisions
@williamstanley4960
@williamstanley4960 3 года назад
The idea to go from digital to real was the good portion of the idea you had at the start, and your husband's concerns were also clearly good, too. The result came from discovering the actual thing you wanted, and then both agreed!
@ergia4822
@ergia4822 6 лет назад
The 'What if question' is a way out of a stalemate. But, what if, if your'e proven wrong in the future. The only thing we can say is, we will deal with it when we come to it.
@dougjinks2694
@dougjinks2694 Месяц назад
I think you missed the point. This is kind of a statistics question in the end. You look at all the What if's, maybe attribute some likelihood of them happening, then you go for the solution which covers most of the what if scenarios, or maybe one which address the most catastrophic outcome. Depends also on your tolerance to risk as well as lots of other factors.
@SamHasPlans
@SamHasPlans 4 года назад
Beautiful talk, thank you for your insight!
@gamiezion
@gamiezion 8 лет назад
i really needed this, thanks. if i can summarize it "boils" down to something like: be like water. if water is poured into a cup it becomes a cup. put water into a pitcher and it becomes the pitcher. put the water into a bowl and it becomes a bowl, but if they crash, the water crashes.
@BenjaminNguyen226
@BenjaminNguyen226 6 лет назад
gamiezion be water, my friend.
@DilpreetSingh-by8ss
@DilpreetSingh-by8ss 6 лет назад
thats Bruce Lee's quote bruh
@roberthardy5171
@roberthardy5171 6 лет назад
i dont see how this quote is relevant at all to decision making
@boldorbroken
@boldorbroken 4 года назад
You can't make good decisions with bad or incomplete information. Sometimes dice are your best friend. 😁
@forbbidenname18
@forbbidenname18 2 года назад
Only time will tell
@CelticSpirit7
@CelticSpirit7 5 лет назад
Right now today I'm faced with the same decision I've been contemplating for the last year...putting off the inevitable...3 days ago I asked a highly successful business owner for advice about this decision I am losing sleep over and his advice was to go ahead...put the wheels in motion, however, he said before you do ask the question What if? I've been formulating my 'what if' questions in preparation for speaking with the IFA...I can see more clearly now than I did before listening to your piano and climate change analogies...I can see the bigger picture now thank you...it's not rocket science...I was just narrowing down all good possible outcomes and replacing them with the oh my god what if this is all wrong for me...maybe I shouldn't do this...trying so hard to see infinite possibilities and only seeing brick walls and disappointment...the crystal ball sure would save me some major concerns...but you're right no one can make those predictions..yet if I open my mind and be ready with my what if' s.. I can move forward with ease. ..
@ariannacaruso5227
@ariannacaruso5227 4 года назад
I loved it
@RosellArriolaEvangelist
@RosellArriolaEvangelist 6 лет назад
I love her
@suzanne2650
@suzanne2650 6 лет назад
I have such a hard time making decisions. Am I doing the responsible things by finding a stable job or follow my passion and face uncertainty? Its sooo difficult. Both options give me anxiety..
@arvieariass
@arvieariass 6 лет назад
Suzanne i so feel you. i am currently experiencing this
@jamescooper4466
@jamescooper4466 6 лет назад
Suzanne I'm facing that same problem should I follow my dreams or to find a steady job
@ih8momjokes1
@ih8momjokes1 6 лет назад
What does your gut say
@sisipinho
@sisipinho 6 лет назад
I'm on that same boat. evey option seems good and bad at the same time, and I get anxiety over possibly making the wrong decision
@petitio_principii
@petitio_principii 6 лет назад
I'm sure many people didn't have as much luck. Ideally you try to set things up so to either have a self-made safety net in one side (saving money, basically), or just have the more stable/safe option in the other, while you use "training wheels" for your passion (gradually evolve a part-time hobby, and have it as a job when it makes itself reliable in providing the same income). A steady job can in the end give you more free time and resources to explore your passion in a more safe manner, with more certainty to succeed, than trying it without the comfort that a stable income can provide, and having to find odd jobs and so on. Despair is not your friend.
@yasirobaid6857
@yasirobaid6857 5 лет назад
I have a feeling that audiences are not in the same room with the speaker! there is a time-lag between speaker's pauses and audience's laughter
@AboodH1995
@AboodH1995 6 лет назад
I'm just here because of a management class test...
@balasubbhramaniyamayyaswaa5263
What if, she is wrong?
@beremill2184
@beremill2184 4 года назад
That is just one of the questions - it is possible.
@HP-vy6is
@HP-vy6is 6 лет назад
Awesome solution ...Thanks Nidhi for creative solution
@edperry4235
@edperry4235 5 лет назад
The last thirty seconds is the only relevant bit. The rest is waffle.
@filthymcnasty2081
@filthymcnasty2081 4 года назад
Waffle?
@user-jh6kx1fw9h
@user-jh6kx1fw9h 3 года назад
Filling. :)
@8233786159
@8233786159 4 года назад
Not relevant what i feel
@petitio_principii
@petitio_principii 6 лет назад
Climate change is more of an issue to people and a good deal of current life, but not life in general, even if it ultimately culminates in a mass extinctions. It's pretty hard to get rid of all life, there are bacteria that adapted to live in nuclear reactors, with astounding abilities in DNA-repair.
@beneath.the.rosesluciddrea8470
One thing though.. if you want to start playing any instrument as a new hobby, getting a hobby version is actually a terrible idea because you are less likely to practice on something that doesn't sound good.
@Chris0mr
@Chris0mr 7 лет назад
Is the transcript for this video available anywhere? I'm an EFL teacher and it would help me a bunch to make activities with this video in class.
@roberthardy5171
@roberthardy5171 6 лет назад
lol getting strangers on the net to do ur class prep?
@-Skywalker01-
@-Skywalker01- 6 лет назад
interesting talk, but I don't like the climate change example, cause fighting climate change is not a A or B decision.
@chemicalBEES369
@chemicalBEES369 2 года назад
She reminded me of the time I poured orange juice over the TV because the people on it looked thirty.
@SamP1888
@SamP1888 3 года назад
Poor clip, doesnt assist you in the key problem of how to make decisions. What if? doesnt resolve that!
@williamstanley4960
@williamstanley4960 3 года назад
We have had absolutely no effect on the global climate. It has been recorded throughout history to be a changing reality as it goes between warmer and cooler. For what it is worth, it is nothing one needs to take any actual thought for. Seed time and harvest will continue unhindered until the end. And, there will be oil and wine until the end, too.
@neoncat9573
@neoncat9573 4 года назад
I felt really hopeful about this video, until the climate change analogy. The video should have been called, "What shall we do about climate change?"
@forbbidenname18
@forbbidenname18 2 года назад
She was illustrating how to put her theory into practice
@truthiseverything9511
@truthiseverything9511 7 лет назад
Harps on about climate change, denies decades of intense deliberate climate changing #geoengineering. As for addressing the SUBJECT of the video? Failed. Indeed, yet another "educated" "expert". #WeatherDerivatives
@dualityofnature
@dualityofnature 4 года назад
If you came to learn about decision making, stop at about 8.03 minutes. Rest is a different subject: climate change! Most probably she was given 15 minutes and she didn't have enough insights for that. Actually, It could have been a short 5 to 8 minutes talk and many TED talks are like that.
@kekort2
@kekort2 5 лет назад
Not helpful.
@rubensontale
@rubensontale 4 года назад
a seriously pointless ted talk ,
@laura835
@laura835 5 лет назад
such a long intro
@erikmagnusson2137
@erikmagnusson2137 Год назад
You should read the last book of the Bible to see what will happen with the future of the climate! It is God's Word and it cannot fail. It is not a prediction, but an eternal truth. The days are approaching. Jesus is coming back!
@davidshiang8019
@davidshiang8019 3 года назад
Einstein said that God does not play dice. With that in mind, the "lens of possibility" that Kalra talks of fades away into oblivion. This assumptions behind this talk are highly suspect.
@elbowache
@elbowache 2 года назад
Einstein made this remark in regards to quantum theory. He was mistaken as evidenced by the fact that the computer you're reading this comment on exists.
@smartITworks4me
@smartITworks4me 6 лет назад
Sorry I don't need crystal balls in order to predict....
@vsay2354
@vsay2354 5 лет назад
another environmentalist, I feel piety for whoever hires her on the team do corporate decision-making. Foolish and silly, a corporate decision based on intuition, 75% are in disasters. Our intuition useful in simple daily life change, what color, style of your cloth, ... Better learn about how to make a "strategic intelligence".
@borkug1566
@borkug1566 Год назад
Don't waste your time viewers, this is about climate change.
@Stonefactor
@Stonefactor 4 года назад
The fake laughters unnecessary.
@suzieque5187
@suzieque5187 Год назад
So dissapointed in the misleading title! Started out great then quickly fell into a talk about climate change.
@ambergray4168
@ambergray4168 7 лет назад
get to the point... yawn
@ericl2733
@ericl2733 7 лет назад
You lost me at the climate change bit. Good till then. Thanks.
@mediadon6545
@mediadon6545 7 лет назад
Question is: What if it is real?? And don't forget its irreversible
@ericl2733
@ericl2733 7 лет назад
Hi MovieCritique. G Warming may be real, but we don't have the perspective or ability to know what the preferred or "proper" temperature should be. Maybe it should be warmer. We will be specks of dust in a few minutes, so you and I will never know. Whether it is irreversible or whether it will turn to an ice age in 30 years is not knowable. Our models are flawed, contradictory, and too dependent on unknown inputs to be of any value. Best strategy with global warming: relax, let the sun and the earth do their thing, and clean up the corrupt quasi-science echo-chamber cesspool.
@channelx9645
@channelx9645 Год назад
"What if" is what keeps us stuck from making good decision. And you again took us in that very loop. Bad talk as per me.
@richardcarlyon2270
@richardcarlyon2270 Год назад
Worst talk err
@nikki8728
@nikki8728 6 лет назад
vote Trump
Далее
КИТАЕЦ ЗА 24 МИЛЛИОНА / РАЗГОН
1:10:06
can you repeat it? #tatyanadiablo ##shorts
00:11
Просмотров 925 тыс.
TEDxUCLA - Andrew Byrom - If h is a chair
17:08
Просмотров 37 тыс.