If you want to solve a problem or make a prediction, the Delphi Method may be the technique you need. Thank you for watching - please do subscribe to the channel and, to join my community, sign-up at onlinepmcourses.com/assets440251/the-onlinepmcourses-newsletter/
Thanks for the video. I am conducting research for my PhD and my research design is qualitative Policy Delphi Research Design. I stumbled upon this video. I am in the proposal stage of my dissertation. Throughout my research, I found the Delphi research method is valuable. Even though Delphi has been around a long time, it is not used by many.
Thank you Dr. Clayton for explaining the Delphi method so beautifully. I am currently conducting a Delphi survey, and I have a slight confusion. Some participating experts have not answered all the qualitative questions in the first round (left some of the questions blank). In this case, can I include them in the consecutive rounds of the survey? Or is there any restrictions against including them? Thank you again and I hope you will answer my question
I don't think there is a set solution to your issue: compliance with the process is part of the process! So, you will need to read the politics of the situation. Your options are: - re-circulate the questions to the people who skipped them with a polite request that they respond to the question with their best assessment, to protect the integrity of the process - as above, but make the requests personally, taking a stance of curiosity about why they did not complete the questions. There may be something to learn - do not circulate limited responses to the questions concerned, and include them again in a second round with a clear request that they are answered - circulate the limited answers, and note the circumstances, so that second-round responses are aware of the limitations - drop the delinquent panelists (and maybe replace them)
Thank you Dr. Mike for this amazing video. I have one question, when reaching out to experts, I shall not inform one experts about the names of other experts, otherwise we can't avoid bias, right?
Rami, I don't think there is a hard and fast rule here. But I do agree that, if you think that knowing who else is in the group will create a bias, it is wise to keep the identities secret. However, what would then be good practice would be to treat every member of your panel in the same way. You should not tell some, but not others.
Hi, thank-you for such a clear and informative video. I will be using this method in research. My only question is do I need to seek consent to take part in the expert panel (ie through a signed consent form) for participants?
I think people need to know they are part of the panel. Whether you need signed consent will depend on the research protocols for your institution, department, and for your project. I would discuss with your research supervisor.
I think you're asking for the details of the people who developed the Delphi Technique. I don't know - it was developed within the Rand Corporation in the 1950s - a time and a place where a lot of high-security US Government research was conducted. Wikipedia names Olaf Helmer, Norman Dalkey, and Nicholas Rescher, but I have not pursued its references.
I'm not completely clear what you are asking, but I'll try to help. 1. The Delphi Method can never validate anything. It can pool expert knowledge and insight - and so lend credence to an idea or identify its weaknesses. 2. If, by 'conceptual papers' you mean articles or technical papers about new concepts, yes and no. Delphi is great for seeing forward, but only where the future is likely to be an extrapolation from current trends. Where discontinuous changes and paradigm shifts are at play, the Delphi Method is no better that any other form of foresight - and arguably intrinsically weak.
AI will be able to detect patterns and trends and therefore project from them. It's not something that LLMs like ChatGPT are designed for, but specialized AI tools are already predicting compounds with specific physical or chemical properties.
That's not what the Delphi method is for and, without some significant intervention, not what you can achieve. If that's what you want to do, however, it's on you. But it will have poor consequences for you and you project.
Manipulation is used to get the people to all agree the way you want them to. This technique leaves the people believing that they came up with the answer/idea all on their own. It’s what was used to get people believing this global warming BS. Rosa was a very smart woman. Nothing got past her. She was able to see through bullshitt. Plus, she was afraid to call people on it. She was the most aware liberal I’ve every known. She even confronts liberals, and anyone who needs it. We needs more people like her in our government. We need more people like her everywhere. She was an intelligent and honest woman who feared no one. RIP Rosa
