I will never forget the zeah-only ultimate ironman that's fighting Sarachnis for the weapon. He went so many times the drop rate that he stopped being a statistic and ended up being a literal rounding error, poor guy...
To visualize 1 in 140million. Imagine, you walk into a room with 15 bathtubs filled to the brim with rice. A single grain is painted gold. Without looking you must pick a tub, plunge your arm in and grab a single grain. If you chose the golden grain you won the lottery. These OSRS odds are orders of magnitude worse than that lol
I would think most players aren't sharing their drops even when they get something super rare, so I would think there's more rare drops out there unaccounted for - way more than what we see here.
that’s very true lol. people didn’t really have youtube to show off drops years ago so there’s a high chance a few people have gotten stupid lucky and just had nowhere to show it.
@@InsightProject ??? It is infinitely more likely that a small minority of people share their rare drops. He has 222k subscribers, thats not even 25% of the playerbase. You submit your screenshots through the discord, how many people are a part of the discord? Idk I am not in it, but a substantial amount less than are subscribed I guarantee it. Lets say 30k people are in discord, that means of the 1.7 million daily players on OSRS a maximum of 30k can be from the discord. 667k people are subscribed to the OSRS subreddit and can post images of their luck. So what does all of this mean? It means that a maximum of 700,000 players with the capability or desire to share a screenshot can be online at any one time and even in the extremely unlikely event they all logged on that day, that still leaves 1,000,000 players not reporting. These are just daily numbers. There are about 36 million total active accounts on OSRS, if we assume the average player has two accounts we have about 18 million. Which means a MAXIMUM of one in every 20 players bothers reporting good or rare things that happen on their accounts. What was that you were saying?
It's insane to try and think about some of these drops. Statistics wise, some of odds in this video would be equivalent to winning the mega millions jackpot IRL back to back
I do agree and not to downplay it. Imagine the lottery was 15 bucks a month and you could try almost endlessly. It's rare but relative to how often you can try certain things. Again not to downplay how rare these are. I'm astonished.
true. I wish they rolled the lottery numbers, with us betting ofc, as often as we roll the dice in OSRS. There'd be tens of lottery millionaires created every day! The tickets would have to cost thousands, tho. Like the thousands we pay for rolling dices in OSRS instead of working. Gotta spend money to make money, even in the lottery lols
Rarest thing to happen to me I feel is returning to the game after years of not playing, making a new character with a friend that got me back into it. ran to the gnome agility course, and on my 3rd run through i got the agility pet, within 30 min of playing. I thought it was just a event thing XD and my friend was freaking out.
I do enjoy most of your content, and I've said this before, but if you're doing drop rate vids you need to actually do the math if you're going to rank them. They are set rates and rolls, it's not that difficult to work out the exact rates. You shouldn't just be guessing set rates.
The drop rates are a bit meaningless because it depends on what assumptions we make. (A) are we trying to calculate the chance of you getting exactly that drop from that one clue (B) or are we caculating the probability of you getting that exact drop within a certain kc (C) Do we care about the order of the items? (D) lastly, are we calculatibg the probability of getting lets say 2 guilded items and 1 3rd age, or the probability of those exact items (fx. Guilded 2h, scim 3rd age kite) All assumptions that people will have differing opinions on and will affect the probability
@@tactiti0n at that time it was not that special really, green was about 5,5 to 6 mil, d med about 2m. Shields were quite rare so price varied from 7 to 10m
back in the day while fire bolting iron dragons, i got a visage and a clue scroll in the same drop. from that clue i git a 3rd age amulet. i wish i had proof.. ive been playing the lottery ever since that day.. i presume all my luck is used up tho :(
I actually got double 3rd age back in the days, when Swiftkit was a thing.. i got the Melee helm and Ranger top.. Ofc, i cant proove this now days, but i've never been this lucky every since!
I got 4 kc Elysian Sigil solo and 4 kc Inquisitors mace in mass in the same week, account has never since had even close to that kind of luck. The game saved years of bad luck into that one week for me
My drop yesterday wasn't worth a lot but it was really rare tho I was killing ogres on Slayer task got in one drop 6 rune items 2 full helms 2 kites 2 med helms not sure on the drop rate for that but can't be common I don't think
9:43 I believe there was another one in July. It is posted to OSRS Subreddit, featuring two gilded and another mega rare, and arguably one of the rarest in the game. Perhaps superceding these, save for the last one. Film Geek was account name
Does jagex have any data saved on this kind of stuff? I’d assume not but it would be pretty awesome to see who have the rarest drops or maybe most player kills on one account
I got b2b Eternal Gem and Imbued Heart around 40 Slayer from my 1st and 2nd superiors ever, both from crawling hand superiors. Mod Ash said he couldn't even figure out the rarity and said it was the luckiest thing he's ever seen in-game...still curious how rare that really is.
If you're guaranteed spawn two in a row.... about .0000005331 % chance to get them from 2 consecutive superior crawling hands. Odds of 2 consective spawning is 1/40000. Maybe im dumb and you can multiply those but I'm not sure how to reconcile those two probabilities . Gratz fam.
Slight bit of story time but i'll keep it as short as possible. Rarest thing that ever happened to me was finally having enough slayer points to unlock superiors. I did so, got a new task from Nieve and off i went to Kurask's. Killed my very first Kurask on task and boink, a superior pops up. Had no idea if it had any mechanics so I just stood there swinging and dropped it, and what do I get? Imbued heart. On my first ever superior, after my first ever Kurask kill, immediately after unlocking Superior's - I got the heart. Never bothered to do the maths on all of that happening and occuring the way it did, but it's definitely the rarest thing to happen to me in game. Probably no where close to being as rare as anything in this video but I've not heard of anyone experiencing the same so it's the best I've got :)
I got a b2b item drops from the range minion at Bandos. BCP, then tassy the very next kill. The rarest thing I've ever experienced myself. If I'm not mistaken it's a 1/225M drop rate. Thanks for the content man! Very interesting stuff!
Hit me up if you want a super rare pet drop (in terms of likeliness of it happening to someone). I have herbi pet at level 77 hunter. I can't confirm, but maybe the lowest level herbi pet obtained.
I got it in my 39th crate. First ever time trying wintertodt. Thought I was lucky then a guy in the clan im in was on about wanting to get the pet on his iron man so went and started it and got it on his 5th crate hahah was absolutely unreal.
Back in 2008 I helped my friend do a level 3 clue scroll for him, Obviously I received a 3rd age robe bottom , althought not crazy expensive at the time, I was still jealous
the rarest thing to happen to me is probably 100Mx less than the olm pet and t bow at 1kc, but i got a dex scroll in my name at 2 kc with only 5k points, in a group of 4. not sure of the odds of that. and someone i know got a master clue bottle at 1 fishing while catching shrimp, their first time playing OSRS. i think someone told me at one time that's about a 1/900k chance of happening? not sure how to calculate that
I only got 2 or 3 okish rare drops yet never anything for any real value. Got 2 magic fangs and a hard clue in 1 go only worth like 5m at the time. I got b2b2b loops at bandos. In my quest to get a whip boost from 80/81 slayer on my ironman I went 1400 dry but got every damn rare drop table loot over 2k lol even got the head before the whip. When I say every rare drop I mean a spear shield half rune sq shield a rune 2h and like 15 other god damn drops never been so defeated in my life trying for a whip lol
The craziest thing i think could potentially happen is checking the health of a tree, doesn't matter what kind, getting the Tangleroot from it, and then while chopping the same tree down, getting the beaver pet. Thatd be nuts
I was blessed with a rare drop of sorts early on when I was probably still below level 40. In that forest area west of lumby, there was just a gigantic pile of gold with a bunch of other awesome stuff and that sort of launched me into being able to make even more money. It was only 1.9 million gold but at the time (16 years ago?) it helped a lot because I was having a rough time even getting 10k
I always click "like" just because you don't beg for it. ROFL! I genuinely like all your content even the quest speed running ( and I do not care for quests). Amazing videos and THANKS for your time and effort which I do appreciate.
From my 17 years of playing these games, the single rarest drop ive witnessed personally is when my uncle irl got 2 ranger boots from 1 medium clue scroll. that shit was insane lol
Completelty irrelavant but 1 night my brother and his mate both got 3a on rs3 in about 2010. I was sooooo pissed off as i felt and still feel they killed my chances. Ended up getting a coif in about 2017 but was only worth like 13m on rs3 😅
How do you submit something? I have a couple screenshots of me getting back to back to back runecraft pet at ZMI altar which, just getting one is literally 1/1m. 3 pets in a row at ourania, one after another. Anyone want to do the math?
Aatykon in the latest RS Chronicles video had a double pet and Masori body loot which seems insane. I don't remember how many people were in the raid though if that plays a good factor.
Are we not going to talk about how that guy got a double 3rd age drop from his FIRST mimic kc? That wasnt even mentioned, but it shows it was his first ever on that acct lol
I'll share my rarest drops over the last 10 years. Not many but a few. I feel like my RNG is kind of cucked but I've got : Chaos ele jr @ 21 crazy arch kills. That was like right after pets became a thing. Ranger boots @ 21 medium clues Snakeling @ 594 kc In those 600 kc I got 5 jars and 1 serp visage.... I was pretty bummed out because I was doing it for money as a broke noob. About 600 kc later I got both mutagens. Ent pet @ 78 farming doing yew trees Heron pet @ 83 fishing Vorki @ 206(?) Kc. Still no other drops from him to this day. I was grinding CG and managed to get 9 armour seeds, they were like 14m a piece at this point so I was happy, in 200 kc but my rarest drop ever I would have to say is hunlef pet AND the enchanted seed on 231(?) CG kc. Got them both in the same drop. I took a break after that because I was doing it for GP right before nex when enhanced was like 240m. Got the drop like days after nex and the enhanced had already dropped like 50m. Was hard to be happy with that timing though lol. What's the rarest you guys have seen?
the math for the gilded scim x gilded 2h x druid cloak is multiplicative probability. You can just multiply across. you will find that the actual chance of this happening is 1/63865916589482 (one in six hundred thousand billions) ????
How would we do the math on the 2 onyx, pet, and elite clue drop?? Assuming we don't care that it's double onyx, but rather just any of the 4 uniques, wouldnt it be 1/256 for one unique, 1/256 for a second unique roll, 1/4000 for the pet, and 1/75 for the clue scroll? If you multiply all those odds together, you would actually get a 1/19.6 billion chance of all 4 actions happening in a single kill.
Something so weird about statistics... When you get up to 1/1 bil odds even more like 1/100 bil.. They should never happen, or they should happen 1 time, yet they happen all the time. In nature, the lottery, video games, etc. There's been way too many 1 in a 100 bil odd occasions that have happened on earth. So is 1/100 bil even right? Yes I'm high as hell. Edible and the best flower I've seen in like 10 years lmao👏😂 Wish I could share🙏 Like Oprah.. And you get a nug, and you get a nug
I think my account has incredible RNG. Got an imbued heart on my fourth superior monster and the dragon warhammer on my 40th shaman on first task. Not to mention I got the dragon defender in under 2 hours. My next rarest item was a dragon harpoon on my second wyrm task. Other then that I've got nothing else worth noting with an account that's 14 total days gameplay. Disappointed I didn't get the pet on my first Jad kill lol. Maybe next time.
I consider my OSRS account pretty unremarkable, I never hit a 99, I’m like CB lvl 111, I’m shit at pvp and and not good at bossing. I only have like a 50mil total bank, but the one thing I’m happy about is getting skotizo pet on my first kill :) my first and only pet.
I had a friend last year got Corp pet on 1 KC with us.. his name was Ricky AKA supreme ricky (RSN: midpacks) he quit logging on for a while and about a week later another rs friend informed me he was murdered in miami.. RIP RS friend
that last clue is like. 3/(10^18-20th ish) rare.. somewhere in the quintillions and sextillions order of magnitude. To put that into perspective, counting to 1 quintillion would take roughly 31 billion years, let alone the time to open that many master caskets. just a semi educated guess. someone who truly understands statistics please go ahead and correct me.
If I get a dwh on my 6732nd kc and another one at 6733rd, that's not 1/25million, that's 1/5k. That's why it's so stupid to count these rates multiplicatively.
the chances are bigger. If you get 3 rare things at once, 1/1000, it ain't 1/1*10^9 if you get multiple things and there are multiple options available. so good cal putting the onyx on 1. lol idk have a comment
John 3:16-21 (16)For God so loved the world, that he gave his only begotten Son, that whosoever believeth in him should not perish, but have everlasting life. (17)For God sent not his Son into the world to condemn the world; but that the world through him might be saved. (18)He that believeth on him is not condemned: but he that believeth not is condemned already, because he hath not believed in the name of the only begotten Son of God. (19)And this is the condemnation, that light is come into the world, and men loved darkness rather than light, because their deeds were evil. (20)For every one that doeth evil hateth the light, neither cometh to the light, lest his deeds should be reproved. (21)But he that doeth truth cometh to the light, that his deeds may be made manifest, that they are wrought in God.
3rd age platelegs 10th hard clue 1/211,250 and a dragon boot (orn) kit on the same clue 1/6,250 so together is like 1/1.3 billion was a good day for me 56m clue reward 🤑
wouldnt the rarest drop be rolling the onyx 40 times from the gem bag? it would be 10^-320 chance of rolling the onyx 40 times in a row from a single bag
@@jochemcode4570 yea but you can't have the gp on your iron. Plus there's NO WAY I'd drop druidic off an iron, especially 2 pieces. The level of flex would be off the charts
I think you need to explain that third age isn't 1/211k per clue, you get multiple rolls. Also onyx from bag of gem has 40 rolls so calling it 1/100million from gem bags also is less true.
10 years of OSRS?? No, not at all, But Reintroduced. I really wish it would have stayed so my Santa hat and Party Hat Set would still be worth major bank.
I wouldn’t be surprised if I’m the only person in RuneScape to get a third age item on their first clue scroll ever. Or at least the only person who got my specific item. A hard clue sat in my bank for 2 years because I was too low level to do it, finally got the requirements, did it and got 3rd age range platelegs
