What will happen with Rolex? Supply up? Boutique only? Better customer service? 

Hope you enjoy my random speculations about the future of Rolex. Currently Rolex produces it’s 1.2 ish million watches (up from 770.000 in 2018 according to Morgan Stanley - That’s 8% growth every year) on about just under 100.000 square meters of land in Bienne and a couple of other sites (core production, movements, accesories, gem setting and the like which is produced at different locations). The three temporary factories are estimated to increase production by about 25% (250.000 watches, bringing them to 1.5 ish million watches) With the acquisition of an additional 100.000 square meters of land in Bulle, Rolex stands to expand production up to potentially double of current volumes (likely a little less but you get the general direction). They own bucherer. They own the building that houses the geneva omega store AND a ton of other properties. They are dominant. What will that mean for us consumers? Share below. 😊😊

Over the past six years (except during the Pandemic shutdown) I have traveled to Europe and many cities in the US. Each time I was told the supply/demand story, and that I should be buying from my local ADs. I still can’t buy an Oyster Perpetual from my local ADs. I have lost all interest in buying Rolex. I will not play the buy thousands of dollars of jewelry and watches I don’t want to get one Rolex I do want. I have registered interest at several ADs, but don’t expect to get a call. Seven years from now Rolex may open their new factory, but then the last old saw will be it takes one year to make a Rolex, so I am not going to wait to be continue to be disappointed. Good job Rolex marketing department! Great job AD’s, I don’t plan on visiting your stores any time soon!

If Rolex loses the appeal of "investment watch", my guess is that demand for most of the models is going to dry up significantly. The demand of recent years was driven by flippers, not owners. As you rightly point out, Rolexes are ubiquitous and common - and take away the expectation of price appreciation and I think that many people will look to other brands that will stand out from the crowd. As for their distribution network, I predict that Rolex will start doing direct to consumer online sales for some of their less sought after models. To a large extent, Rolex watches sell themselves. Why wouldn't Rolex keep 100% of the proceeds from the sale and minimize transaction costs by selling the models direct to consumer which aren't likely to be flipped for a higher price on the grey market?

Rolex should sell directly to customers and have the customers pickup at the store.

Completely unaware of what was going on the watch market, in early 2023 I walked into a Rolex AD ready to pull the trigger on a watch. Once I figured out what was going on (nothing is available, of you show interest we might call you, yada yada yada…), I walked out knowing I would never set foot on a Rolex AD again. I wish them luck with the new factory and sales in Asia where people buy brand. I just want some respect, only then can you have my money.

The entire Rolex experience has become toxic.

As a GenX/80's kid, always love the Transformers in the background 😁

Phenomenal analysis, sir. It’s nice to see a watch channel that isn’t pandering to brands or taking shady back-door deals to promote product.

Anything that makes most Rolex watches readily available with good customer experience is most welcomed.

Just discovered your channel and its quickly become one of my favorites. Most watch channels just recite specifications but you give personal insights that are original and interesting. Keep up the good work!

Love your videos. Very interesting information. Rolex kind of leaves a bad taste in your mouth. I walked into an authorized dealer to purchase a Rolex Submariner. Just so you know, I’ve know this guy for over 30 years or so. The showcase was full of Rolex watches. I had the one I wanted in my hand’s ready to lay out a boatload of money and he said none of these are for sale. I was told there is a waiting list and even then I’m not guaranteed a watch. What a bunch of crap. It’s like walking into a car dealership and they won’t sell you a car. What gives. I’m fed up. Thanks

At last a video completely middle of the road on the real Rolex buying market- thank you

I had assumed that Rolex’s strategy was focused on China and India. Lots of people and lots of people becoming wealthy each year. Designing a store footprint in each country can be based on how the other high quality shopping experience in that country evolves.

I totally agree. For watches that trade above list - they need to only go to the Rolex-owned stores. These can be sold to verified “good customers”. Rolexes which trade below list can go anywhere. The reason for this is simple - it’s not actually Joe Public the opportunist doing the flipping - it’s the AD themselves. I mean - why would they sell a watch for 10K when they can sell it for 20K? To deny that is to deny market forces. Anyone who doesn’t understand that is naive. When more models start to trade below list - they’ll magically appear for sale at these third party ADs. It’s starting to happen already but they’re still trying to maintain the mystique so you can be suckered into buying half a dozen non-Rolex before they grant you the honor of buying Rolex. Tell those ADs where to go.

Watching ur video for the first time , you must be someone who’s in the industry , your input and analysis are pretty accurate in my point of view with a bit of comments from my end. Distribution - Rolex would still distribute the Daytonas and unique ones via ADs and ADs are key to rolex partnership and hold a lot of relationships with important individuals . So the difference in boutique stores could be just like other - the manufacture edition and that’s about it. Experience - it’s bad out there, even those who wear the brand speak badly of the brand. Rolex wants to change it for sure but there’s a problem - product mix . Improving the supply with the current product mix would still be a problem. Customers are unhappy coz they can’t get the basic models to start the journey and/or they hate the two tone , diamond watches. To be fair , at least 20 % of the product lines are obsolete and need to go. This is coupled with the fact that these models get pushed to ADs and they have to get them sold to meet contract maintainance . Given the scenario, ADs have to do what it takes to sell them and hence they came out with the “journey concept” or “bundling” (the same if you think about it) and this is an area that has created a lot of anger . Imagine ADs given all stainless steel models (I am not saying Daytonas and gmts) like datejust 41 /31 , sub , oyster perputal to sell , they wouldn’t resort to this as well. So it’s up to rolex to decide if they want to continue to produce those obsolete models and have them sold . Lastly, boutique stores - it’s easy to say they will be well and good once they are set up. It will not be ; customers want the Daytona and they will be told it is part of the journey and again the point of product mix (being forced to buy things they don’t want) will still come into picture . Ask those with AP relationship and you will know how much they hate AP code . So in another word, I feel supply shortage started this whole thing with extreme demand over the last few years, but rolex needs to work on the product mix and line to stay relevant too which nobody talks about in public. They produce the amount you mentioned, they can’t technically can’t cut the models without replacing with new /relevant one. If I am the executive , I will be extremely concerned. Nothing wrong with creating Daytonas as the holy grail of the journey, but the supply for those items below the grail need to be available accordingly and be relevant. That’s my point

Again beautifully analysed and explained… Grey market is full of watches.. actually over stocked due to their holding power… to the extent that it’s disgusting. I for one am fed up of going to Rolex AD and boutiques… I want to enjoy what I buy so am taking the alternate watch route… Not having a Rolex is not the end of the world.

Superbly considered analysis that presents an entirely plausible, realistic outcome. As I see it there are additionally two unknown factors involved; 1) what will the impact be on demand for other brands if most Rolex models become (relatively) easily available new through whatever tier of AD with no need to substitute for the unattainable Rolex model you really want?, and 2) what will happen to the overall demand for luxury watches as a segment in which Rolex could, in the medium term, end up accounting for over half of all sales? There are arguably too many brands scrapping over the ‘left-overs’ as it is. Will there be a big shake out? With luxury retain its gloss? 🤔

In 2010 I walked into Rolex and purchased a Daytona with no previous purchases no questions asked. Now people are flipping them for big gains and cannot buy them from any shops in any country. I was at hour glass in Singapore recently and the sales person told me I need to buy some lower end watches first, my Daytona purchase is too long ago, so I need to establish myself again. Shame…. Rolex has poor customer experience, feel like I’m being ripped off. Their shops are museums, can only view watches. You know who gets Rolex sports watches, secondary watch resellers.

I’m going to gift myself a luxury watch for my 65th birthday. Among consideration is a black or blue OP. There’s a few ADs, including a Bucherer store in my area. I’m about to start the process as my birthday is in 6 months. I will not wait until my 70th birthday for a Rolex. GS, Omega, and Tudor are also in the mix.

The Future: 1) Rolex builds new factory, doubling capacity; 2) Jonesing for another high as the thrill of Bucherer purchase wanes, Rolex buys Costco, then Amazon; 3) Costco limits sale of Rolex watches only to customers who have previously purchased more than one rotisserie chicken; 4) Unprecedented uptake of Amazon's newly released on-line Rolex wait-list crashes Amazon's e-commerce systems, then the Internet goes black... 🤪

Great insight Mike! No surprise that the Omega boutique in Geneva pays rent to Rolex since they own half the city. Since I don’t have the desire to own any more Rolex I’ve been more interested in their business model than the products they produce. Rolex buying Bucherer was probably in the works for years and it’s no coincidence that Rolex certified preowned came out at around the same time. Buying a Rolex certified preowned at slightly more than gray market would certainly build a good buy history and get you up the interest list on a desirable new Rolex. Don’t get too close to the truth because the Rolex Men In Black are watching you 👁️ (now I’ll take off my tinfoil hat 😎! Best regards

Well argued video. It’s just not possible for Rolex to directly sell all their watches. Some sort of AD network will be necessary. Though the ADs will be consolidated.

Amazing video. But couple of years back GMT wasn’t difficult to get. Not even Daytona.

In my market, Tampa, an Omega boutique is opening in the same mall with an Omega/IWC/Rolex, and etc AD.

Very interesting discussion, thank you. My guess, though, is that many folks don't care about their purchasing experience and are happy to buy by mail or through a website. I suspect a rather large percentage of watches are sold this way, anyway. And it will likely grow. All the best.

Great Vid again! Two points though: 1. Pls visualize more. You're quite articulate but your content in general and this in specific is quite difficult. 2. Pls don't underestimate direct online sale. I bought a JLC Polaris Date Green onljne (seen it before in a boutique in Dubai) and the purchase experience was rather premium. Great Key Account Manager, great delivery, amazing box with personal note etc. .. I can see that also coming for Rolex (at least in some markets and some models).

Another excellent vid, thanks for taking the time to make it. Watches of Switzerland have deep pockets and recently agreed to buy another UK retail chain, Ernest Jones. I expect to see them make more purchases outside of the UK in the coming years.

I agree completely that Rolex cannot move to a boutique-only model. They simply cannot sell a million watches a year that way.

Another super-filled content video. I need to watch it again to get the full effect of all of it!

If I were Rolex I’d follow the Apple model. A high quality online store where all models are available and Rolex boutiques for people to try on the watches, get watches resized and serviced etc. That’s the only way Rolex gets complete control over the customer experience and still gets to sell millions of watches.

Most intelligent analysis on this subject

Until recently I’ve been a definite buyer if I were to “get the call” but not anymore, and not because the market is dead but because of how poorly Rolex authorized salesmen have treated me over the years. Such wankers.

I’ve never understood why Rolex doesn’t just raise prices to line up supply with demand. Their MSRP would be what the grey market is now. Flipping would stop. They’d become a little more exclusive due to price. ADs would have watches in the case. What am I missing?

I wonder how many Rolex AD's are silent majority owners of grey market boutiques?

Adding concession stores into existing retailers - like high end Department stores is another route to rapid rollout in high quality locations

Great analysis. Very informative. Well done. 👍

Happening in Toronto Canada. The biggest rolex ad royal de Versailles is located at a fantastic location . Opening soon a rolex flagship store located exactly next door .

I always enjoy your perspective on watches. Always interesting and never the same as other watch channels. Please continue to post your content. Cheers, Jock

Can’t understand why anybody wants to deal with Rolex.

The Middle Eastern Rivoli Group is majority owned by the swatch group for a decade and distributed IWC, Zenith and a few other brands which are competitors. What have they done so far with all their retail intelligence? We don’t know but I doubt it made a huge difference…..

I went to my Rolex dealer Kennedy at crown casino and was told, I had to make an appointment for a Rolex watch. So you have 2 doors to the store, one for Rolex and one door for the rest Tudor,Omega etc. The Rolex door was locked and unable to enter.

Great analysis based on sound reasoning. In some ways what you present is and ideal version for genuine buyers. It remains to be seen though (a) to what extent Rolex will really get their house in order (b) how a better supply and better controlled supply would help the genuine buyer who just wants one or two watches.

I walked out of a Rolex AD (Mayors) when they said they did not have any product and literally walked over to the omega boutique who had plenty of product and purchased an Omega Seamaster 300. Cheaper , easier and a better built movement. The cal 8800. Antimagnetic to 15,000 gauss and see through case back the beautiful movement. Went back and got a speed master a year later. With their wooden lackered boxes.

*This was a good show--I appreciate your efforts.* *Smiles*

What you are not considering, if tinkering with the idea of Rolex going retail, is online sales to complement the distribution network, like Omega or Zenith. They can sale the “base” models online and funnel the others through boutiques. The availability issue in ADs is not because Rolex doesn’t produce enough, just about every model that has a wait list is available in the gray market so it is just the ADs that don’t have stock lol. With the recent acquisition of Bucherer, the CPO, the new factory coming, Rolex has plans to tame this AD/gray market mess. Well that’s my interpretation of things lol.

Interesting to hear your experience at local ADs. Seeing your power plug and assuming you are in DK, I’ve had a wildly different experience - Bucherer didn’t even bother talking, while Klarlund dropped a snarky comment “well, if you’ve only bought your and your wife’s Omega here maybe we would be open for a dialogue about your future purchases here”

Great Video. Greetings from Santa Barbara.

Rolex also owns the building in which Patek is located on Bond street. They own a lot of real estate.

I have been waiting over 2 years for a OP 36mm black from WoS & I’ve bought Cartier & Tudor from them. It’s got silly - I might give Bucherer a go now

You’re assuming the Bucherer stores are optimally located to drive volume. They’re not.

You earned a subscription just based on your business/wealth knowledge- so many ‘experts’ apparently never read the news, have no clue how much wealth there is in the world. And yes - economies are getting worse and will keep getting worse and Rolex prices will keep dropping. I agree with most of your predictions/opinions. I’m not as much of a fan of grey dealers as you (and Rolex could kill it using secret shopping - buy 200 watches listed as unworn/mint and trace them back to the ADs- make high profile announcements that those ADs will lose their allotments - the rest would be scared straight.

Excellent video! And really interesting, I love numbers-videos!:)

Excellent!

idk.. all the staff ADs I know just sit around all day occasionally telling people they don't have any watches. I think they can easily 3x that :)

I must prepare thoroughly this week for my Rolex purchase interview at the weekend. Today is my mock Q&A session/rehearsal. Tomorrow I'm booked on a body language workshop. Will be ready come Saturday. Nervous though. 😂

Just bought a 2020 S/S Sub no date. In London dealer. Under 10k. Only because ive tried at least 10 Rolex ADs in Europe, Asia and UK. Attitude in every outlet was poor. From Harrods to a shopping mall in Kuala lumpur. Unbelievable

I’ve been Rolex school produce left watches to keep the value up a lot. I want to close by. I believe Rolex is a much better looking anyway.

I think the numbers of 3000 watches per year is not thinking about one thing when you asked if they have the capacity for this and that is how long a watch is in the stores inventory. I went into an AD for the first time 2 months ago asking to put my name down for 5 watches hoping something will eventually come in. They called me 3 weeks later a blusey came in and I have a day to buy before they move on to the next person on the list. I did go in the next day and came in to purchase. That means they had for maybe 3 days

Great analysis, thanks!

Rrally interesting. Not sure i agree with all this. But def interesting.

Another excellent episode, with a brilliant take on the tick tock of the watch industry. Thank you.

Prediction - Rolex’s new factory isn’t about increasing production of its extant lines. Instead, it’s for R&D and production of pieces with complications and grand complications, as Rolex hands off production of its lower tier models to Tudor and looks to become the primary haute horology competitor to PP.

Så bør strategien være at satse på Bucherer i Illum i stedet for Klarlund? 😀

Great video. Thanks

Interesting content as usual and backed up by sound reasoning rather than being shouted at with hyperbolic theatrics. Yes you Nico et al. Your piece assumes that people will continue to desire a Rolex; there are so many emergent brands appearing and with access to the internet people are becoming educated in the choices so Rolex may have to be careful relying on what is possibly a previous generation's assumption about prestige. Many of the current buyers are cashed up older retirees ( fading market ) and new money Asians who are trend driven ( fickle market ). Maybe what the new factory is really for - ( not just increasing production of their current range ) - is expanding the range to capture a wider, read younger internet savvy, market. They play the long game so a recessional interim is the perfect time to build a new factory and be ready for the next surge. Stay tuned....

I think it could go the other way. By that I mean their new premises will concentrate on increasing quality rather than quantity to try and elevate Rolex to AP and Patek standard and slot Tudor into where Rolex was. Why would Rolex flood the market and devalue the brand? Its been mentioned that the flippers and investment buyers have gone, leaving the true enthusiasts. A smaller number than most people think.

After 5 years of waiting on a Rolex at two AD’s, I gave up. Permanently. If I’m not worthy to buy your watch, so be it. I spent that $$$ with Omega.

Very smart strategy you laid out there. The brand with the crown should hire you lol.

I got the call for a blusey before a yachtmaster. Still don't understand that one

They have decided to control the grey market as well. Truly spending some money for future strangling of the flow of watches as more go through the Rolex rehab process. There are organic points in any process where control can be exhibited naturally. It only takes money and time.

Good work. Well done.

More great content .... I agree with your perspective sir.

The younger generation, those that are under 25 or 30, don't care if fig about Rolex or any of that stuff. The era of flagrant consumption of something as trivial as a wristwatch is coming to an end. And it cannot end soon enough.

Outstanding!!

Someday the consumer will understand Rolex and demand will dry up. If you have one sell it!

I visited the Bucherer store in London a couple of months ago, I won't be going back, totally ignorant towards me, so hopefully Rolex won't base most of their stock with them, in fact the whole experience of trying to purchase a Rolex has put me off the brand, might just settle for a Cartier instead as a treat for myself

Agree with 95% of your speculation, but I’d hope someone inside Rolex appreciates how alienated many legitimate customers would feel if their “non-boutique” Rolex AD suddenly doesn’t qualify for “the good stuff”…. Potentially after many years of purchase history

One of your most interesting episodes Mike

Rolex was like toilet paper during the pandemic. People felt they had to stock up. The rich just bought up the luxury goods. Now that perhaps that rich customer market maybe drying up, the attention better be towards the everyday consumer who is celebrating a milestone or feels or are inclined to splurge. If Rolex continues to not care for this market, they will feel consequences of consumer defections or price erosion. I for one wanted to purchase a Rolex for the longest time, but now considering other brands over Rolex because of the treatment from their ADs. I probably will not be purchasing a Rolex.

Excellent points Mike! I wonder if they wont implode in the future as they expand and thus dilute the brand. If everyone has one, no one will want one. I also don't like the idea of another database that has my information and will probably sell my data to parties unknown. I value my privacy more than any Rolex and should that turn out to be the case I would take my business elsewhere.

Got offered an OP 36MM by an AD, should I take It? it's been a long wait and I've wanted it for myself for awhile but just wary that if I get it that it's going to go below retail if I decided to upgrade/downgrade at some point. What's your advice

Demand (price) is artificially high due to intentionally limited supply. One day the market will be saturated, but I'm not waiting.

One thing you’re ignoring or fail to realize is how many businesses prior to the Bucherer purchase, that Rolex has quietly made along the way. Bucherer may be a big, well known brand but there are MANY that have been absorbed into Rolex directly or by way of other companies, including Bucherer. For example, the number of Bucherer locations discussed do not include those in the USA that Bucherer added buying companies such as Tourneau. I think it’s a fool’s errand to assume that Rolex hasn’t planned or played out every possible scenario as they plan for their future. By the way, I keep hearing about ‘a’ new factory, they’re building three.

One thing that seems to be missing from any conversation about the Rolex acquisition of Bucherer is, what happens to the Bucherer watch brand? Was that even part of this purchase, or does that remain separate? If so, how does that impact the profitability of that brand and does it remain viable? If it is, then what does Rolex do with it? They make very good watches and have some historical significance, but where would a Bucherer watch brand fit within the rolex-tudor market strategy?

I get that for non WIS types, Rolex, and pretty much that's it, equals high end watch/success. But their design dna is everywhere, they may have made an iconic diver in the Sub, but they weren't the first or only, that style has a lot to do with function, and i'd rather have a seiko myself. The other stuff is pretty basic looking, or too flashy for me, fluted bezel ftl. Also? well over 1mil and going to 2mil production? Any exclusivity is artificial, or hype driven. A brand with over 2 orders of magnitude difference in production with another should always have more stock available for immediate purchase than they do, or why even go to a store?

I tried to buy a GMT because of the stupid waiting list i just give up

great

This is amazing analysis, I hope you’re not giving Rolex too much credit on knowing what they’re doing

The commercial real estate crash will make it much more affordable to buy and lease.

I can't comment on Rolex AD's being "not great" because I have no personal experience: They have such a reputation that I won't try.

Hi, great video. In March we went to Edinburgh to look at Rolex watches at official AD. They were nice and they put us on waiting list. I really enjoyed trying the Rolex OP and the classic size Explorer on my wrist. It seemed even my girlfriend got the bug and I said we should get one for her too. I had the money there. We never got the call. :(

Maybe they can sell them on Amazon?

Monopolies have always been great for consumers. Wait, no, they haven't!

I for one bought an omega instead - suddenly woke up from the hype and finding other brands more valuable. Opportunity Cost goes both ways and at some point see if Rolex will start going on the negative. But then again there are alot of sheep out there and only a few with wisdom lol!

Rolex market manipulation has turned me away forever. Market forces only work if you take the necessary action against such behaviors

Eventually you'll be buying your Rolex online. Not next year, but eventually. Brick and mortar stores are not that important in the future.

Exceptional video, really polarizing insights by you. I am now to the watch game. I live in Europe. Do you think signing up in as many Rolex stores as possible help or hurt my chances of getting more watches? I am not a flipper, but would be better to sign up and get better allocations. Do Rolex stores cross check your applications among each other? Would love to hear your thoughts.

If you want to buy a Rolex simply go to a reputable third party dealer. They offer brand new models of any type you desire....all steel, sub, deap sea, daytone, etc., with warranty cards, all papers etc. You pay a premium but who cares. Ive bought 6 over the past 3 years in this fashion, had rolex do warranty service on at least one of them. No trouble whatsoever. No one is going to wait three years.

Do a video on the problematic 32xx movement that Rolex has

i can't see omega, JLC, etc. moving out of the bucherer stores......they will always benefit by people buying their watches to get their spend history up to eventually get the rolex they want.