Where are we in the real estate cycle?

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In this video Ken walks through the 4 stages of a real estate cycle and gives his best estimate as to were some of the local US markets are.
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For more resources on this topic check out the links below.
2019: Where Are We In The Real Estate Cycle? - Cody Shirk
codyshirk.com/2019-where-are-...
Jan 7, 2019 - 2019: Where Are We In The Real Estate Cycle? “Unfortunately, bubbles are only recognized with 100 percent certainty in 20/20 hindsight,” says the man who accurately predicted the 2008 housing crash and the beginning the current housing slowdown. Clue #1 - Longest bull market in modern financial history. Clue #2 - Low ...
Real Estate And The Cycle | Seeking Alpha
seekingalpha.com/article/4240...
Real Estate And The Cycle. Feb. 14, 2019 3:46 AM ET ... To a certain extent, real estate is where economic theory goes to die. One possibility is ... However, the herd tendencies in the housing market may now overwhelm the industrial cycle.
5 Reasons 2019 Is The Most Important Year For Housing In 10 Years
www.forbes.com/.../2019/.../5....
Jan 14, 2019 - 2019 will be the most pivotal year in US housing and commercial real estate since ... Investing I share insights on real estate investing and Opportunity Zones. .... Conditions vary with each economic cycle, but the government ...
Council Post: Should Investors Wait For The Next Real Estate Crash ...
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... of the participating individuals. 5,434 views Mar 26, 2019, 09:00am ... Helps passive investors grow wealth through real estate. ... What I am saying is that investors should adjust their expectations based on the stage of the real estate cycle.
What If You Buy A Home At The Top Of The Market? A Look At The ...
www.financialsamurai.com/what....
Here's a deep dive into the real estate cycle and what happens if you time your ... For investing opportunities in 2019, Sam is most interested in investing in the ...

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21 апр 2019

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Комментарии : 105

@mudassirsyed316 4 года назад

Ken, you are awesome at what you are doing!!!

@kirkmerrill992 5 лет назад

I feel my area just webt through a mini recession and is in recovery now. There's been soooooo many wedge deals the past month, I'm even working on a deal myself. Thanks Ken!

@KenMcElroy 5 лет назад

That is great to hear Kirk! I'm happy to hear people taking action and moving forward on their goals and objectives. Thanks for watching and commenting.

@chrisj8764 4 года назад

Your advice is really helpful. Thank you!

@billyshears5569 4 года назад

Thanks Ken. I'm a UK investor but I believe that UK property cycles are linked to US, cycles particularly land values. Thanks for the insight 👍

@cashrules520 5 лет назад

I'm focusing on homes near aged military bases. Ex fort bragg,NC anticipate huge bah raise this year for millitary... there are over 2 million women and men in the armed forces who havent bought homes yet...

@thereallovetrance5262 3 года назад

Great info Ken! Thanks!!

@saludyvidaintegrales7982 4 года назад

Thank you very much, you help us a lot

@aljenetanglao6552 3 года назад

You are a great teacher Ken.. Thank you for sharing your knowledge and your experience in real estate. I would like to ask about condominium investment leveraging strategies and exit strategies.

@garvinasimwe8084 Год назад

Great Explanation

@h0neybee77 5 лет назад

Thanks for sharing this.

@KenMcElroy 5 лет назад

No problem. I'm glad you found it valuable.

@hlamyintkyaw3842 4 года назад

Awesome, Kenny.

@Planetgreenzen 5 лет назад

Thanks for the great explanation Ken

@KenMcElroy 5 лет назад

Thanks as always Planetgreenzen! I appreciate you stopping by to watch the video and I'm glad you found value in it.

@elenasaalaquavivarealtyinc5198 5 лет назад

Hi Ken! Thanks for this valuable information. What is your recommendation for real estate residential investors in South Florida now in July 2019 ? what part of the cycle do you think that we are at here?

@keithmace1 4 года назад

Great info, Ken! What research would one need to do to find out which stage a particular market is in? How can I learn to tell what stage a market is in?

@nancyhoulihan4720 4 года назад

Hi Ken, I have a question on expansion. Does expansion seem to be very slow, which is causing the prices to stay where they are or continue to go up?

@DamonLeeK 4 года назад

Really helpful thanks Ken!

@KenMcElroy 4 года назад

Thanks for watching Damon! So glad you are finding the videos helpful.

@brentbarker3233 5 лет назад

Great work Kenny - would say we are generally in a stable market after one of the longest recoveries in history... Good move exiting now!! A true Entrepreneur knows when to sell and is always working on the business and not simply in the business... Great work.

@KenMcElroy 5 лет назад

Thanks for the kind words Brent and for taking the time to watch! I agree, overall I think most of US is in a stable market situation at this time.

@kippsguitar6539 2 года назад

Or absolutely was NOT as real estate has soared the past 2 years! Totally wrong

@barkingsheep5224 5 лет назад

I'm just starting to learn about real estate and this video was really understandable. Clear information. Thanks! Ha..you mentioned Portland. Close to my area. It's an...interesting area to analyze while just stepping fresh into real estate. 😂

@KenMcElroy 5 лет назад

Hey Christina! Thanks for taking the time to watch and comment. I’m so glad that you found the video useful.

@samtidwell3439 5 лет назад

Ken! I love your stuff and have read your books. Where do you see Cincinnati, OH right now?

@turnbucklemagazine7296 2 года назад

Even more relevant info in July 2021 considering how hot the market has been this year.

@tickedoffsheikh8587 4 года назад

Ken, thanks for making these videos. Can you say if these principles apply to my country Guyana?

@viacheslav1 5 лет назад

Thank you!

@KenMcElroy 5 лет назад

Thank you for watching Slava!

@denizsabz 2 года назад

Long time listener/viewer from Sydney, Australia! Huge fan. I think you could've done with more markers in your hands.

@77Tadams 5 лет назад

I believe right now in Phoenix it is stability teetering on the edge of recession. I live near Phoenix and can see it has the same feel as when the market crashed in 2008.

@KenMcElroy 5 лет назад

Hi Tadams, we have had a really strong run with this economy, and so prices certainly have pushed back up. Thanks for stopping by and watching the video.

@jdillon3035 5 лет назад

Pls clarify...what do you mean by occupancies go down in a recession market. Ppl will always need someplace to live. Some may even lose their home to foreclosures but wouldn't that mean rental demand goes up? Are you referring to a specific type of rental demand like apartments vs home rentals or a specific price range? Thanks!

@empoweracademy1322 5 лет назад

Thanks for the insight Ken. Would you care to opine on investing in UAE in general and Dubai in special looking at the current scenario? The investment goal would be cash-flow.

@APWoodworking 4 года назад

Great video & well explained. Is there data or census reports you can easily look at per city or county to help with your bell curve?

@VJRE2013 4 года назад

Great video for a very basic understanding of the market but I'm interested in a step deeper. What data can I acquire to help me gauge what stage my market is in and how do I apply that correctly.

@gtajeu 3 года назад

If the cash flow is looking good on a property, does it make that much difference what phase of the market you purchase in?

@Michael-te6tb 5 лет назад

Hey ken, thanks for making these videos. Any suggestions on where we can find out the absorption numbers and supply levels of these MF commercial properties?

@KenMcElroy 5 лет назад

I know that the Census Bureau puts out information, but it tends to be lag behind as they gather the information. Here is the latest report: bit.ly/2PoF3yd I've also mention the Berkadia site for general forecasts that are free: bit.ly/2GxhO2o And then their are commercial research firms you can pay to get information from such as Axiometrics: bit.ly/2Ps16Uq I hope that helps.

@rsmearing 5 лет назад

Thank you for this. When you refer to exiting markets that are in hyper supply or recession, are you referring to actually selling off all your properties in that market?

@KenMcElroy 5 лет назад

Thanks for watching Rob! I think if a property is cash flowing and fits your investment strategy it doesn't mean you should sell. It is difficult to know exactly where you are in the market to time it that way. I think that evaluating the real estate market cycle is actually more valuable when you are out buying.

@womenisonereasonbehindever2049 3 года назад

@@KenMcElroy I think after us boom India market also starts increasing..

@MegaTuang 4 года назад

I learnt something new here.

@arthas9957 4 года назад

Hi Ken Are cycles apply to Multiunits too?

@kevingmail267 5 лет назад

Hi Ken This is Kevin from Tokyo. Is always good to hear from your and your insights. Agree exactly what you said, got to look at micro enconmy not generalize the market. Also even if you are in a certain stage for instance recession stage, I think you can change the model to get higher return like vacation rental etc.

@KenMcElroy 5 лет назад

Hey Kevin! Thanks for watching and commenting. That is good advice, always be considering new and creative ways to maximize your rentals. I focus on multi-family but vacation rentals are a great option for other types of properties.

@kevingmail267 5 лет назад

Ken McElroy yes Ken. I am following Robert’s and yours in multi family rental for 8 years now, done Robert’s mentor program too. Recent hyper stage due to Olympic here raises all prices, difficult financing, hence lower yield. On the contrary tourism is booming so vacation rental is huge and legal. I am thinking convert to multi- units vacation rental from regular rental. Yield is 3 times of regular rental.

@kevingmail267 5 лет назад

Recent appreciate your insight Ken!

@kevingmail267 5 лет назад

Really truly appreciate your insight Ken. Sushi on me if you are in Tokyo.

@KenMcElroy 5 лет назад

That is great insight Kevin. Major events can provide a short term vacation surge. We see it a lot in Arizona with Superbowl and baseball spring training, and other sports events. The Olympics I'm sure is more significant. I hear good things about Robert's mentor program. I'm working on some ideas about how I can help accredited investors and aspiring accredited investors have a better approach to investing. Keep an eye on my website in the coming months. Thanks again for your comments and for watching the video. I'll be sure to keep you in mind the next time I'm in Tokyo.

@youmarc11 5 лет назад

Ken, at what point in the market cycle should you raise capital from funding sources to be able to buy in the recovery stage?

@nancyhoulihan4720 4 года назад

I just began my cash out refinancing. Though I think the market can hang out like this until 2023 or later.

@2027759 4 года назад

This bell curve looks like a wave. This is exactly what surfers do, they harness the waves to ride. May be the same approach should be used by real estate investors?

@kaitan7583 5 лет назад

I learnt a lot there in your short presentation. Thanks Kenny! Im in New Orleans, starting out and would like to buy my first cash flow 4-plex property. From your example given in your video? How would I find out the area Im buying in would be stable but about to head towards the recession so best avoid at this stage? And where I should focus on because is out of recovery with a boom. New Orleans though small has so many different neighborhoods defined by just a few blocks. Thanks

@KenMcElroy 5 лет назад

Hello Kai. Thanks for stopping by and watching the video. I think you are on the right track about how you are thinking about your investments. Nothing can substitute for the hard work of building relationships and gather knowledge on the ground. Get to know the real estate professionals in the areas that appeal to you. Invite them to coffee, go to networking events, try and build on the collective knowledge of the people on the ground. Be generous with information you may have and try and solve problems for other so that they see you as a valuable resource. It takes time but the momentum will build. Be patient but persistent. In addition here is some broad market information that might be helpful to you or that you might share with the people you meet with to help them. It is specifically about the New Orleans market. bit.ly/2Pw0mxN I hope that helps. Best of luck to you and thanks again so much for watching.

@Radnally 5 лет назад

Houses under median price are still moving very fast. Just sold 2 in the southwest. They went pending in under 10 days for asking price.

@KenMcElroy 5 лет назад

Hi Radnally, I'm pretty focused on the multi-family market but I'm glad to hear that the single family market activity is still holding strong. Thanks for stopping by and watching the video.

@igorkliman 5 лет назад

Hi Ken, great video, however how to apply it in practice? How do you know which phase the market is in, what are the other signals except of lots of cranes and high construction? When is the market in the first phase? Thank you

@KenMcElroy 5 лет назад

Hi Igor. Thanks for watching and commenting. I'm going to put out a video in few weeks around some of the signals for gauging a particular market. But here are some things to look at to determine where a market is in the cycle for example: overall GDP for a state/city (is it growing or shrinking), occupancy rate, employment rate and projection for employment, projected new projects/units coming online and absorption rates, rental rates and how prevalent are concessions. Depending on the size of the market you can use resources that I have mentioned before such as Berkadia site (bit.ly/2GxhO2o). For sub-market and neighborhoods this might need to be gather through local connections like speaking with brokers and agents, and walking around doing your own due diligence such as surveying leasing agents about traffic and rental rates. It is obviously not an exact science but you can look to patterns and history to make informed and educated guesses. It can take a lot of work to get informed on a sub-market but that is where the value is to investors that you are talking with, and ultimately to your own investment portfolio.

@Endeavor545 5 лет назад

Wow! That is good stuff Ken! I heard from your friend Robert that there are no bad investments, just bad investors.:^) But now talking SFH's, as long as I can get an investment to cashflow positive, is it still going to matter where I am at on the curve you showed? My market is over here right outside of Charlotte NC. I believe we are probably still expanding BTW...

@KenMcElroy 5 лет назад

I'm glad you found value in the video Michael. In terms of your question, yes, if you can get your investment property to net cashflow positive, for the most part, it doesn't really matter what the rest of the market is doing. Of course this assumes that you can keep your property leased up, and that might be impacted by how the rest of the market is doing. Charlotte is a good market with many banks and other financial services companies providing solid employment opportunities. Thanks again for stopping by to watch the video.

@Endeavor545 5 лет назад

@@KenMcElroy Thank you Ken! Your You Tube responses are like a bolt of lightning, lol...BBandT just acquired Suntrust Bank and that will be a good thing for our area here. I have been fortunate with the small investments in Realestate here. Most of my rental property for the past 10 years has not gone more than a week without being rented. There has never been a shortage of renters it seems. A lot of folks from NY and NJ are my primary tenants and I believe that is simply because of the high tax rate there. Just when I think its cooling off, they start more building, lol. A ton of SFH going up here in Union County. Downtown Charlotte is pretty hot too.

@KenMcElroy 5 лет назад

That is real great market information. Sounds like you have become quite the expert in your area. Keep that positive mindset and keep working. Before you know it, 3, 5 even 10 years passes by and you've build something valuable and sustainable. Thanks again for stopping by the channel and contributing to the conversation.

@Endeavor545 5 лет назад

@@KenMcElroy Thank you Ken and I Will! Have an outstanding day!

@UnityFromDiversity 5 лет назад

I live in the most insane market in the world, the San Francisco bay area. Where do you think we are at right now?

@KenMcElroy 5 лет назад

Hey Unity&Diversity thanks for watching. As I say in the video, SF is clearly in the hypersupply stage with no signs of cooling. For multifamily investment properties I would look to other markets as it has too many downside risks.

@vishy099 Год назад

Good stuff though I have to say this is not a normal/bell curve. This is a simple progression graph with time on the x-axis.

@AbdellahBerhil 5 лет назад

Hey ken! How can I find the market cycle of my city ( outside U.S) ?

@KenMcElroy 5 лет назад

Hi Abdellah. Best place to start would be with the major banks and financial institutions that operate in the area you are looking to invest. Many times they will have economic reports for the area that they operate in and will post these to their websites. You can also look for other institutional investors who might also prepare economic analysis.

@123idontcareok 5 лет назад

Where’s the Florida market right now? Thanks!

@KenMcElroy 5 лет назад

Rather than me giving you my opinion I'll give you some ideas on how you can become an expert on your local market and then people will be coming to you for advice. Besides, I live out in the Southwest so tend to keep a closer eye on my part of the country. But here are some ideas on on how you might work through to research your market. First, check the online resources that are available. Berkadia puts out a lot of market research, which is mostly for free. Here is a link to their annual forecast which covers most of the metropolitan areas in the US, including a few in Florida. Here is the link: www.berkadia.com/research-and-resources/ click on the annual forecast to download the report. In addition to that, check out various banks and financial institutions websites, they typically put out free reports on the markets they are active in. For example, here is a report by Wells Fargo on regional economies: bit.ly/2PyzJZf and a report on Florida employment specifically: bit.ly/2PsZZE7 and then here is a report on real estate: bit.ly/2PtcOOW Second, get to know the local real estate brokers, particularly ones that handle the types of investment properties you might be interested in. Drive the neighborhoods and look for the names and people that seem most active. For me those are the professionals that handle multi-family properties. Then call them and buy a coffee and build a relationship and learn from what is going on. I hope that helps.

@Jmontastic 5 лет назад

Some markets like Las vegas have been slow to recover from the 2008 recession; now vegas is in the top of the recovery phase. But lets say a national recession hits the economy again. Will that drop vegas into a much deeper recession because it hasn’t even fully recovered from the last.

@KenMcElroy 5 лет назад

I think Las Vegas is a good market. But you are right to point out that it tends to be impacted by national economics more than some others. I think that this is primarily due to the fact that the economy and employment base is so dependent on it being an entertainment destination which is much more susceptible to national economic condition and the discretionary spending of consumers. I know that they have tried hard to diversify the employment base of the city which would mitigate some of the deep fluctuations we have seen in the past but that is a work in progress.

@ocvegasproperty 5 лет назад

Vegas has almost fully recovered from the prior bubble. Lots of building and higher prices. Not at bubble levels but stable at this point.

@mdrolon 5 лет назад

hi KEN , THANK YOU SO MUCH ,GREAT GREAT INFO, I JUST WENT TO CHECK OUT AUSTIN AND DALLAS, WHAT DO YOU THINK OF AUSTIN IF YOU PLEASE!!

@KenMcElroy 5 лет назад

Hey Milder, thank you so much for watching the video and I'm glad you found it useful. Austin has been an extremely strong market for a while now. So much of residential real estate is dependent on employment opportunities and Austin certainly has seen that grow in both higher education and technology companies moving in. You might check out these reports for Berkadia to get a more detailed answer than I can give you here on RU-vid. bit.ly/2PtkP6g I hope that helps. Thanks again for watching.

@mdrolon 5 лет назад

Thank you so much , have a bless day

@oscars.barbecho974 4 года назад

Hi Ken , God Bless You and Thanks for your Valuable Information I remember your book since Rich Dad and Poor Dad with Robert K. Big question I live in Queens New York City most of Multifamily are expensive now , I save around $ 50k for a down payment but impossible in my area. Should I keep looking in areas around my city or what other idea you may have for expensive metros areas. Thank you very much... and have a bless day... Thanks

@JasonCWaite 4 года назад

They're moving to Texas.

@jinho8260 5 лет назад

Ken, where is Philadelphia in this bell curve?

@KenMcElroy 5 лет назад

Hi Jin Ho. I'm not as familiar with the Philadelphia market, but you might check the resources that I mentioned previously, from Berkadia group. Here is a link to the Pennsylvania page with three different reports on the Philadelphia market. www.berkadia.com/research-and-resources/search-reports?report_query=&state_code=PA What are you seeing there?

@mr.d4295 5 лет назад

Vancouver Canada ?

@lindafukuyu5767 5 лет назад

Mr. D : Vancouver BC is in the last phase now “Recession” .. hypersupply ..

@guadalupelosada3243 4 года назад

What is your oppinion about a market like DETROIT???

@JasonCWaite 4 года назад

Ken, where's agriculture?

@comptegoogle511 5 лет назад

Off the bat a bell shaped curve is not the good math model for a market cycle.

@KenMcElroy 5 лет назад

Thanks for stopping by and commenting Compte. What is the best video you have seen on market cycles? I'm always open and interested in learning.

@comptegoogle511 5 лет назад

@@KenMcElroy That's the proper graph: transportgeography.org/wp-content/uploads/stages_bubble.png

@KenMcElroy 5 лет назад

Thanks for responding and contributing that information. Looks interesting. I'll take a look.

@SewakS108 5 лет назад

As far as real estate is concerned we are always in the "self centered " phase.

@KenMcElroy 5 лет назад

Hey Parminder! We are definitely in the center of the cycle - but I know what you mean.

@SewakS108 5 лет назад

@@KenMcElroyIm in Toronto Ontario and the prices are ridiculous.

@KenMcElroy 5 лет назад

Hey Parminder! So where do you think Toronto is at in the cycle? Are they moving into a hyper-supply situation?

@SewakS108 5 лет назад

Ken McElroy I see lots of construction. According to your graph we should be in hyper supply this summer

@KenMcElroy 5 лет назад

Good to know Parminder! It seems like most of the large cities in North America are moving into hyper supply. NY, SF, Toronto. Thanks for the response!