The first group of eVTOL air taxis have arrived in the advanced stages of development. The competition is stiff. Frequent news about test procedures, demonstration flights, and strategic partnerships seem to suggest that we are close to the beginning of commercialized eVTOL air taxi services. But how close are we, after all? While host regions may be willing to provide regulatory concessions to facilitate the launch of commercial services, will the technical systems begin to mature well enough in time? There’s a lot of ground that remains to be covered in terms of infrastructure, insurance risk, and low altitude air traffic management. It’s not just a race against competition. It’s also a race against time.
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The race to who’s going to have the first certified / authorized commercial eVTOL air taxi service is heading into an exciting phase. Leading players including Volocopter, Autoflight, Archer, and Joby Aviation have all identified their commercial service launch targets.
Volocopter has its eyes on Paris for the early third quarter of 2024. AutoFlight is setting itself up for the Guangdong region in China for the early part of 2026. Meanwhile, Archer has a preliminary deal with Abu Dhabi for launching services in the same year. And Joby Aviation has also made a definite agreement with the Roads and Transport Authority in Dubai to begin providing services by the early part of 2026.
We are already seeing demonstration flights across different cities in the world. But what’s pending is a range of certification and authorization procedures that would ultimately open these eVTOLs out into commercial service.
So, prior to the start of any revenue generating commercial flights, the OEMs must go through four distinct phases for entry into service. These include:
1. First flight of aircraft with all the conforming parts
2. Type inspection authorization process
3. Type certification
4. And, authorization to start revenue generating commercial operations
According to a recent article in the Aviation Week - based on industry trends, the period from the first flight of aircraft with all the conforming parts to the authorization to start revenue generating commercial operations, generally spans between 19months (best-case) to 36months (baseline-case).
What we have witnessed so far from the OEMs have all been pre-production flights. These development flights are not yet entirely conformant to all the prescribed standards. So, the first fully conformant flight from any of the leading OEMs is still pending.
Having said that, the first conforming flights from OEMs are expected soon, and if we draw an assumption that the first conforming flights are to happen in June of 2024, then considering previously noted estimates, the first revenue flights can subsequently be expected between January 2026 (best-case) and June 2027 (baseline-case).
So, Paris 2024 is certainly not happening in the sense of certified / authorized commercial flights. What we may see at the Paris Olympics will perhaps be another set of demonstration flights. And, between Dubai and Abu Dhabi - Dubai sounds more “definitive” in becoming the first with Joby Aviation. Meanwhile, Guangdong in China, cannot be underestimated as well.
Either way, 2026 is still a tricky bet - because it accounts from the best case, and not from baseline estimates for sequential entry into service. In the end, we might see special regulatory authorization concessions from any of the competing host regions to facilitate the flight of the first within the year 2026.
Let’s see how it goes.
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Waqas Ahmed | 3PointJunction
6 мар 2024
