Who will join the EU next? (It's not Ukraine) 

Norway is not part of the EU. Sorry for the mistake in my maps. Thanks for pointing it out in the comments.

I would rank Kosovo much lower due to the fact, that neither Cyprus, Greece, Romania, Slovakia and Spain (all EU countries) recognize the Kosovo as an independent country.

I am from Turkey and hearing news to be member for 30 years and no one explained so far this clearly and simply. I learnt more in 8 minutes than in 30 years.

If Scotland secedes, maybe they would be the next EU member

Unpopular opinion: given the current state of affairs in my country, I think that we will return to the EU sooner than any of the candidates. The big question will be whether they want us back and we rejoin in one piece or in instalments (which wouldn't be bad because i'm scottish). PS: the best pro-EU campaign ever carried out is called brexit.

How can kosovo become member of eu when 5 eu countries dont even recognize kosovo

Georgia may officially not be at war, but with Russia's pressence in South Ossetia it is in essentially the same situation as Ukraine pre-invasion. I agree with the ranking, just above Ukraine, but i thought it was worthwhile mentioning

As a young Turk. We dont want EU. We want to further develop our relations with Asia.

The 37 country issue is easy to solve. Back when Romania and Bulgaria were in talks for accession, the EU was also working on the European Constitution. As such, one of the conditions for Romania and Bulgaria's accession was that they'd be defacto in favour of the Constitution. There is zero reason any new members can't have, as part of the accession criteria, a requirement that they be defacto in favour of any effort to move away from the veto system.

I know one thing, A smaller countries tend to move quickly if they have a political maturity and desire ( example Slovenia, Croatia) I totally agree with your projection on Montenegro ! I also see lots of potential for a fast move for Moldova ( only because the country’s government is very ambitious and has all the tool for its advance) I personally project them to open the negotiations in someway by the end of 2023. Also to consider one thing Moldova and Ukraine has a very loud advocates in Brussels such as Romania who is pushing for Moldova based on it’s special historical relationship and Poland pushing hard for Ukraine. Although also both of them have a significant high support from Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania. Regarding Moldovas territorial breakaway region it is present but it is not a religious or racial conflict, it is mostly based on corruption and mobs affairs. Once Moldova would be able to set in place its proposed judicial system gaps there is a good chance this conflict would be solved with no casualties.

As a Turk, I think Turkey's place on the list is correct. The current governing model and Erdogan's political steps make membership in the European Union almost impossible. We think that Erdogan will lose the presidential election to be held in 2023 and that the European Union membership process will be possible with the new president. Turkey is a crowded country and it has advantages as well as disadvantages. In many ways, Turkey can add a lot to the European Union. At the same time, I believe that the European Union can be a solution to the main problems in Turkey, such as the current economy and education.

Moldova will recieve help from Romania so it has a higher chance of joining than Kosovo that is not recognised as a country by several EU member states.

Great video! I like your writing a lot! Very accasible and clear indeed

Joining the EU seems impossible for Turkey. However, only thing that I expect from Turkey is following European values. I hope 2023 will be end of this era.

Looking at Cyprus, I am not so sure, if the disputes in Transnistria or Abkhasia and South Ossetia have to necesarrily be resolved before joining the EU.

Ukraine already managed to fulfil at least 2 out of 7 criteria for entering a negotiation status, plus Moldova have got 9 of them, not 7. With 92% of ukrainians suppotring the EU membership country will move towards it way faster, then you think

There is absolutely no chance turkey will join, and the veto per nation has to go

It's really hard to predict the future in this case. Because if this process would go as intendend, those states would never join because of lacking reforms and corruption and let's say differing views about democracy. Things that seem, like they will never change. But in the recent conflict with russia this might change. Because in my opinion the objective potentially will change, if it hasn't already, from "gaining political & economical partners" to secure important geographic landmarks, to gain a more favourable position in potential geopolitical conflicts, that might/will arise in the future.

You can be very proud because this is a video we watched in politics class like 6 times because its so good

The way I see Turkey's membership is very complicated. Turkey is very diversed county and I mean very diversed. As a guy who has been living here for almost a decade it's very hard whether Turkey is secular country or just Islamic. Yet I think that you can't deny that Turkey is utterly secular in a lot of political, economic and cultural point of views. Yet people might confuse that people also whom I have lived with are undescribable in one total sense. You can see your neighbor downstairs being a typical Muslim and your neighbor upstairs being completely the type of guy that'd through an alcoholic party everyday. So I want to conclude this comment by saying; modernization in Turkey may not be stable and perfect, yet if you take closer look you'd find a country you can never define.. and to understand this you have to understand what is modernization and look at other examples.. because it seems that you can really suppress and change a whole country's history, culture, values, politics and economic by just "modernization". And I'm probably wrong but this is my opinion built on sociology studies in books and history in general..

Turkey has completely changed its political course. Turkey no longer wants to be an EU member, but rather an intermediary between Europe and Asia. As a regional power, Turkey is able to rise economically. According to surveys, only 32% of Turks were in favor of joining the EU. I don't think Turkey wants to get closer to accession again.

I think this is accurate and pretty well done :)

I don't think anybody in Turkey has a tangible expectation about getting into EU. It is-or-was more about bringing the European rules and regulations into the country.

I think you’ve made reasonable arguments. Good and informative video.

Slightly frustrating that the UK, Norway, Switzerland and Iceland don't even get a mention.. I agree with the first and the last mentions. I don't think it likely that Turkey will be an EU member in our lifetime. On the other hand, there should be comparably few issues with Montenegro's accession.

May we know why Cyprus dissapeared from your maps yet all the other islands are on?

Which app have you used to make the video-presentation? Thank you so much!

Actually, in Ukraine public support to join even higher than in Georgia (91%), just seems weird that you didn't mention it but really focused on Georgia about public support And my ranking would be 1. Montenegro 2. North Macedonia, Albania 3. Moldova 4. Ukraine 5. Georgia 6. Serbia, Kosovo 7. Bosnia and Herzegovina 8. Turkey

Completely in favor of accepting more members, it's just the matter of EU adapting to it... which is something that should have been dealt with already. Of course, anyone who wants to join must do their work instead of complaining that it takes a lot of time. EU may have it's problems, obviously, but is still a positive force for democratic values, human rights, environmental protection, etc. All those who share these views and want to work to strenghten them can only be welcome. In fact, there should be agreements with other countries throughout the world who share equal values.

As a Turkish/American I can’t see us joining the EU. There is no point in trying after 30 years. We are majority Muslim, share borders with the middle east(in which is in a civil war) have clashes with Greece once in a while, and our political system isn’t in stable condition. Even if Erdogan loses and magically CHP follows whatever conditions we still won’t be able to join. A no wonder Erdogan wants to join the Shanghai cooperation pact. At this point I say we should give up on EU and move on to be neutral or join another organization

Don’t undercut yourself by saying “most likely I’m completely wrong.” If we’ve watched that far (it’s at the end), it means your analysis is interesting.

Since this video was uploaded, both Albania and North Macedonia have moved to the candidate negotiation stage.

Still weird seeing Ireland just sat there without the uk

I would put my money on Montenegro then Macedonia. Usually if one is in the EU or NATO they can join the other a bit more easily

First thank you for your information, what do you think about the july on 18 decisions at Macedonia? How can ıt effect the list?

I don't think Turkey will ever join, and I don't think it should.

As a Turk, I can easily say that Turkey's ranking is correct because we went back 50 years in 20 years. Relations with the EU are worse than they have ever been.

Thank you for the great work you put in! As a Turkish citizen, I largely agree. I would say we have no chance at all due to issues you mentioned and it's a Muslim country. IMO in this decade only candidate with a real shot is Montenegro. I don't expect any other country to join soon. I'd like to add that Serbia will probably won't join at all. I have many Serb friends and they are almost all anti-EU and I understand that. Bosnia should be just above us cause their chance is extremely slim. Georgia and Moldova have territorial issues so it's difficult to solve. I believe EU has largely reached its limits. Last member to join was Croatia and that was almost a decade ago. This is probably the longest period without any enlargement and it'll continue for a lot longer.

Keep up the good work. What does tiered EU mean?

Bro i seriously need an explanation from you regarding your choice to remove the island of Cyprus (EU member) from the map and simply write its name like its a tiny rock thats not visible with naked eye, yet you added all greek, spanish and italian islands.. SERIOUSLY I NEED AN ANSWER COZ YOUR IGNORANCE IS HARD TO BE ACCEPTED!

Serbia is less and less interested in joining as time goes by. The people have seen that, no mater what they do, they seem to be stuck in the same position for years. Accepting Kosovo’s independance or sanctioning Russia will, probably, not change a single thing and it will never be enough. That’s why it would have to be lower on the list due to public disinterest.

I think you are on point when it comes to Turkey. Over the last decade turkey has become much more authoritarian whilst becoming much less democratic. It needs so much structural reform and also lots of cultural change. At its current state it is further away from eu than it was in 2008. Best case would be reduced tariffs and free movement but they also are not on the horizon.

Very interesting

I think UK will join next, or rejoin.

Montenegro 🇲🇪, Albania 🇦🇱 and North Macedonia 🇲🇰 are highly likely joining EU 🇪🇺 next. I'm not sure when exactly but they are close. The others are tough to guess.

I have to say somewhat ashamed that Ukraine will have one major headache in the EU to ever join: Hungary. At this point I feel like we are destroying our relations with Ukraine in such a way that there just can’t be any trust between our government and Ukraine’s. Hopefully we’ll get rid of Orbán and we can get along once more. 🇭🇺🤝🇺🇦

Is think your analysis is absolutely correct.

Bugara did not lift the veto. Bulgaria got even more veto and blackmail power. In return for temporary postponing the veto. This will not end until EU ditches the unanimous vote, therefore the veto power abuse of single states.

I'm from Turkey. While waiting to enter the European Union, we entered the middle east union, thank you

ok so my contribution to this discussion would be that if the eu would provide cheap gas and oil, and invest heavily in renewables or even nuclear energy in Serbia the people would realize that Russia actually offers nothing and that the real path is towards eu integration

Public Support in Macedonia is below 50% nowadays,people are fed up from all the vetoes and actually dont want EU that much anymore

Norway is not in the EU as it is shown on this map

So about TURKIYE or TURKEY, I believe after elections in 2023 things of change could surprise everyone. But still question is more on How Turkey solves issues with neighbours and refugee crisis. 14 Chapters are open to finish and other chapters are closed needed to be open by agreement of other countries. If Turkey finishes all 35 Chapters, in theory there is no reason to block them to reach Stage 4. I believe Accession Document will be Approved by Turkish citizens and Parliment. However Question is will EU be ready to agree Turkey join when the time comes, when all things needed are agreed and done ?

Germany, France, Holland, Belgium, and Austria will choose the next member regardless of the "steps" or the "progress" of the applicant countries based on their socio-political and economic interests. And that's that.

Bulgaria and Romania should have NEVER joined! And there has never been a point for Turkey to join, seriously...

I didn't know Norway was a member

Bosnia got blessing from European Council just couple of days ago and we may become candidates.

Nice!

You're missing both Malta and Cyprus. You may want to correct this, too.

The tiered EU system seems like a good idea. If there was a Western European Union and an Eastern European Union

SCOTLAND FOR EU MEMBERSHIP

Make also a video about who is leaving!

The Corporations of the EU always looking for the next Country to import cheap labour from.

The most accurate list ever! However it seems that the EU is also thinking about integrating the Western Balkans together, because they are incredibly interconnected. They might all go together as a package, if only the Serbia-Kosovo question is somehow solved.

And you forgot the one that actually could enter before all of these on the list - Iceland

Cool

As long as Germany says it ok they can join very democratic

I think realistically, before the EU can bring in new members, it's going to need to reform the EU, especially on vetoes and majority voting, otherwise, more members will make the system unworkable. I think with vetoes, either it needs to go or it needs to be based on a percentage of countries to block something, not where it is now where anyone member can hold the rest to ransom, it's easy to see how that can create grid lock as more members join. The second is majority voting, that could be done on population size and amount of members that vote a given way, it could even be done in a way where you need a percentage of the population and members to pass or veto a motion. I think treaty change needs to happen over the next 3 years and whiles that is going on, the countries wanting to join the EU, can do the reforms needed to join, after all, joining the EU is no quick process and how quick it happens usually depends on the reforms the country does. In the case of Ukraine, a few things need to happen, the above reforms of the EU, the war in Ukraine needs to come to an end and a lot of reforms, the reforms part is probably much easier to achieve now thanks to Putin because any government in Ukraine will use the threat of Russia to push reforms through, they will also make the ones holding out feel guilty into pushing the reforms through, in other words, it should be much easier for Ukraine to do the reforms needed to join the EU then it was before the war, still the war will need to come to an end before that can start. But let's not kid ourselves, it's no quick process, there is no such thing as fast tracking a country in like Ukraine wants, how quickly a country joins is really up to how quickly the country in question does the reforms needed to join, some countries are quite fast on that, others drag their feet. One thing is certain, thanks to Putin's aggression, more countries want to join the EU than they did before the war, the EU is also more open to expending eastwards, that in time is likely going to get other countries to want to join but like I said above, first the EU needs to reform its self before any country can join, Hungary and Poland are proof that change is needed, which is ironic because Poland and Hungary are the two countries that want the EU to let these other countries in and yet they are the biggest roadblock from letting it happen, especially with Hungary. Also, what is it with some countries that seem to think that if they complain a lot or try to guilt them into speeding up the process of letting them in? That doesn't work, the EU is a very rules based organization, if any country wants to join, it really is up to the country in question how quickly they can join, in other words, do the reforms needed and solve the other issues they have, especially boarder issues, it's not magic, it's just common sense and hence why some countries join much faster then others.

Turkey doesn't need the membership actually. Also EU doesn't want Turkey as a member. They are huge trade partners for both of them and things are great this way.

Very good ranking

Bulgaria and Romania were inserted across the line to form a shield to the east. the rules are not the same for everyone, are they?

Very hard to guess which country will be the next eu member ... But I think you are right : Montenegro is in the best condition for that Anyway I hope to see the macedonian flag in front of the EU parliament in Brussels before I die 🇲🇰

Serbia is out of the question any time soon.

Who's here after the announcement that Bosnia and Herzegovina is officially a EU candidate

As a hungarian i hope that new countries can join soon

I don't really agree. I am Ukrainian, but it's not about that. :) Montenegro will be the next one, and maybe Serbia, but Serbia is a bit too pro-Russian and has problems with the West. Then Albania, while I don't think Greece and Bulgaria will let North Macedonia so fast. The next would be Ukraine (again, not because I'm Ukrainian), and then Moldova, or actually, Ukraine and Moldova can become a part of the EU at the same time (to the ones who think a conflict can stop Ukraine and Moldova, it's not true. Cyprus is in the EU, while half of it is occupied. Croatia also has/had some disputed territories. So that's not the problem at all. Also, the conflict in Moldova is frozen, so it's not dangerous). The last ones should be Bosnia and Georgia, because they aren't even candidates yet, so it will take a while. And about Kosovo, I don't think it will join EU so fast. It's not recognised and that's why it has many problems, a bad system.

Depending on how the war goes, Transnistria could succumb economicaly and have no other way than to negotiate a reintregration into Moldova. The problem was also that until now it was tolerated by Ukraine, they could travel and do business without documents issued by Chisinau. Of course this will not be the case anymore. Moldova is a relatively small country, polarised around its capital. It could be somewhat simpler to reform and modernise than larger ones, especialy that they have a pro EU president backed by its own government which also has majority in their parliament. Lastly, there could be a posibility that they join by uniting with Romania. Of course this is something that needs to be discussed and agreed not on a bilateral level, but higher, even within NATO.

I think Turkey's membership is very difficult, multiple issues that cannot be resolved, 1st one being a hugh population, more than any other EU member states, if it is to join EU the balance of power will shift. Secondly, the Cyprus issue is going to take courage and understanding in order to resolve it, which is highly unlikely to happen anytime soon, religion is not an issue as many other Balkan european countries have a muslim majority or somewhat significant percentage but they are smaller in population.

Since you mentioned that the two separatist regions of Georgia are occupied by Russia, it's interesting that you conveniently left out the fact that the NATO is occupying Kosovo, a breakaway province of Serbia.

I see a clear bias against blue and yellow flag countries.

I heard montengaro will need to stop using euro and complete convergence criteria first but they might get exceptional since they use euro already, Russia doesn't occupy the region they are self governing even though they have asked for excession

Well, Turkey's situation is really easy to understand. Problems in country can be fixed but the main problem is the population. I don't think France and Germany would like to see a third power in EU.

Russia & Turkey will never be part of EU

Don't really understand how Moldova and Georgia having border disputes is an issue considering Cyprus is in the EU, and they have a MASSIVE border dispute

I'm gonna disagree on Montenegro part. It's political situation is in chaos. The most popular party,DPS is corrupt to it's core and their popularity is mostly attributed to Serbophobia,buying voters and scaring workers(if you work in a place that has DPS oriented owner,you have to vote for DPS or you're fired). Second most popular party,DF is more east oriented,publicly anti-NATO(which country entered without promised referendum) and it's leaders just wanna replace current president that has being ruling country for 33 years as next(and probably worst)dictators. Other parties are either "traditional partners" of DPS(corrupted to the core) or are to small and think they are some factor(URA). Not to mention how jurisdiction system is corrupt and how organized crime is rampant. Did I mention that Montenegro own so much to China that they are in possibility of losing their biggest port. Montenegro took so much loan from China to build it's first highway,which had being constructed for 5 years now,and despite many taken was for whole thing,only 3rd of it has been finished for now,with rest of the money gone. If EU let Montenegro in,they'll just have money sucking headache(obedient,but ever hungry for money). Serbia is not entering EU if recognition of Kosovo is mandatory. Serbian party that even thins of recognizing independence of Kosovo will not be even elected,except if NATO it self put on throne,which would only further distance Serbia from the west. Not to mention that it's current president is a dictator that holds firm grip on media and judicial system,freedom of speech is limited and opposition is just a bunch of thugs that would just replace current dictator and reset a cycle anew. And of course,people in Serbia are more Russian oriented than EU and its one of few places in Europe where democracy is in danger of dying. And I lived in both countries(currently I do live in Montenegro)I know political situation

Majority of earth's population doesn't recognise Kosovo as indepented state, Serbia is just on number 3 nothing more nothing less.

I would place Ukraine higher than Serbia and Kosovo, just because the Ukrainian people really want to join EU. The Serbs don't really want, they prefer to follow their own path.

Why was Norway in the eu map

i would place north macedonia in 1st place with montenegro but good ranking bro

I hope new members come in as soon as possible.

Russia will joint the EU before turkey does

UK, Iceland and Switzerland missing from the map but Norway isn't?

I think your vidoe makes a lot of sense

Parallel to the growing US-China tensions the enlargement discussions will speed up, because the EU need cheap labor force to hold it's competitiveness. Other hand the multi-tier structure is seems more likely, because Germany and France will not allow to join bigger population countries, like Türkiye or Ukraine. The EU decision majority they want to hold for sure.

AB sizin olsun 🈴 Biz Türk birliğini kuracağız ✅

It's either Ukraine or Ukraine. Or it could be Ukraine

Untill there is a way to rapidly hault democratic backsliding that is currently happening in EU (especially Hungary) no, we should not allow further accessions

Expansion MUST happen at least to be include Moldova and the Western Balkans. Ukraine also, depending on the exact outcome of the war. It's the only way to ensure long term European prosperity and security. To get there, reforms might be necessary. Certainly the threat of nationalism and Russian/Chinese meddling need to be thwarted. As for Turkey, it would be great if many ways it they could be integrated, but it's going to be difficult. Should all go well, perhaps a way of bringing the UK Noway, Iceland and Switzerland into the fold could be found. Ultimately, their membership would benefit European leadership quite a bit

Always sad seeing the micro nations being treated as if they don't exists

17 days after this video was published Macedonia and Albania have passed to step 3