23:56 : When Brent says that he would argue that China today is what the Soviet Union was in the 60s and 70s he must have had a brain fart. Nobody could rationally and logically argue that.
Using that logic, it means Soviet was that advanced in 60s-70s that they already have lots of automations and using digital payments already. I guess, he has never been flying out of his country. He has no idea what is goinf on out of his own world.
US today is more like Soviet Union back in the 80s total economic supply chain disruption, receding international influence, dysfunctional politics, and citizens' disillusionment of national ideal
China should dump soon its hold of $870 billion of US's bond. Otherwise, US will confiscated it. Lesson learned from Russia, Afghanistan, Libya, Iraq, Venezuela, etc
Brent is not talking about the treaty in the 80's The Plaza Accord. The treaty that turned Japan into a zombie nation. China is not accepting that plaza accord style zombification.
America is currently plagued by the hydra-headed evil duo of inflation and recession. The worst part about this recession is that consumers are racking up credit card debt. In April alone, credit card debt went up 20% while rates have doubled in a year. Inflation is so high that consumers are literally taking debt for basic life necessities. Collapse has indeed begun..
Collapse is generous 1st time in our history with a full generation that wasn't taught financial literacy, civics, Google fixes their problems if their parents don't do it for them. Reckoning for participation trophies is incoming.
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Brent is right when he says the US could threaten Brazil with military force. But what happens when the rest of the world decides to continue trade with China. You cant just declare war on the entire world... The US may be the predominant military power, but their are limits even with hard power.
Who says they can't declare war on the whole world? From what I have seen in my 50+ years on this rock in the nation called the United States,The US will do whatever damn well it wants to do. From destroying nations that want to sell their oil for something other than dollars to printing more money than any other time history to even drag down the whole world. My investment advice? Invest in some brass and lead,you never know if you are going to need it and they are trying to take that away too.
If US invades Brazil, a sovereign country doing what is best for its own interest, then US is totally hypocritical to demonize Russia for invading Ukraine. Should the world sanction US then?
It’s easy be understand by consider USA short history. Look at China or Europe history, no one can always be superpower. The different is when and how thing change, that’s why be nice guy.
It's easier for China to take NZ and Aus for their farmland. They are defenseless. CCP sees them like the British looked at the American Indians in 1690.
Anyone who has watched SE Asia get flooded with Chinese goods over the last 10 years will understand that China has other markets it can and will supply, US and EU are not the only game in town.
ASEAN sell their raw commodities to China, China factories manufactured those raw commodities into end-user products. China need USA for the market and USD this is why China is busy opening up other market in Africa, East Europe, South America and at same time making billateral agreement to use their currency and local currency to trade.
Chinese domestic market has been actually shrinking in last 3 years, and is miniscule. Lot of trade data in SE Asia and China is export and reimport. For eg: Vietnam has higher export than gdp. Thus without the western market import, even these economies will bite dust. Other than India, and to some extent Indonesia, all other Asian countries including SK, Japan and China are dependent on wester market. Without this access, their economy will be much much smaller.
@@AndrewManook you are again missing the point - if the export starts reducing, the domestic economy will also suffer, in fact much more. They are bigger economy, but as a % there domestic market is small. And don't go by numbers, their gdp is 40% lower than official data.
Well spoken by Peter Schiff. Brent is hopeless, he's totally disillusioned. No point having Brent in this discussion. He still has the hegemony mentality.
Lol, do you know the difference between a naval fleet of the US and China? Especially the long-range one? Do you know what that means for the Chinas trade?
@@serge4274If China is world’s manufacturing house, it will easily transition to military superpower when circumstances demands, not to mention they have the most advanced nuke missile system that can attack US soil through arctic. US dares not to wage a hot war will China because it will collapse. Japan is not even a sovereign country that’s why it does whatever it’s master aka USA tells it to do. China is a different animal.
He thinks that the US can install a puppet dictator in Brazil and several Latin and African countries to prevent them from doing business with China. He's wrong.
Peter’s opponent admitted defeat the second he said the US would use military force to prevent China from trading with Brazil. The US having to resort to military action proves that they are in a weaker economic position to China. I wish the moderator would have put a stop to all the geopolitical hypotheticals. This was supposed to be an economic debate and that is what the guests are experts on. Kudos to Peter for staying on topic and providing great economic points.
I think you misunderstood his point a little bit. He is trying to forecast. He was saying that it's very unlikely there will ever be a situation where there is no trade between the US and China (because they were talking about food self sufficiency) unless something happens like a war with Taiwan, probably. Then, in that type of situation he believes the US would be blockading ships going into China from off the coast of China itself, and all sorts of goods from around the world wouldn't get in. It's a forecast of what would happen in a war over Taiwan. You can tell from this, that he believes if there is no war, then actual trade will continue between the US and China.
@@-whackd lol listen again, the idea of him forecasting using the genocide military, he lost it. Also, he forgot China is the mayor trading partner with 85% of the world. Like yourself and him, stay in your "American Dream" lol.
I think Brent is smart enough to understand the MO of the US government. As a bully, the US won't let China get an easy win. It will bloody for both, that's what he is saying, I think.
My question: can the current generation handle hard times? As I know, most people in China grew up in hard times. Most Chinese family have a saving for hard times, and usually have their family as backup.
I lived in China for 3 years and they are the most hard working people I have ever seen. Meanwhile, the USA is living through its most spoiled generation yet. I'm not sure why China hasn't pulled the plug yet, but the speedy expansion of BRICS nations shows me the Chinese are just going to outstrip the USA using economic expansion. No need for a war from the Chinese perspective.
Well, Peter may have a good understanding of the principles of economics, but it seems that his track record with investments has been less than impressive. In fact, he's been wrong about most of them over the years, which suggests that he's consistently missed something critical in his observations and conclusions.
@@natoslayer2907 no it's not. There is no economics if I put a knife to your throat and tell you to give me your money, you comply or you get your throat cut. Economic prowess helps build soft power and make real friends/trade partners, which the US has plenty of, we have all of Europe, Vietnam, the phillipines, Indonesia, south Korea, Japan and Taiwan and Mexico and Canada. These are cooperative allies, we have access to their markets and technological/industrial base and hard economic times is unlikely to change that. The US has all the soft power and friends and economic influence that it needs to put an economic bullet in china's head, would it hurt the US economically? Yes. But China would cease to exist as a functional political entity. They can't hold a coalition, and have massive economic vulnerabilities where the US Navy holds the trump cards, and there's really nothing china can do about it short of nuclear war. Peter is just wrong here. And this isn't even considering things like china's massive demographic bomb that is set to go off this decade.
China GDP growth in 2023 is projected at 5% to 6% while US at 0.7% to 0.9%. China with the BRICS countries which eventually increase to at least 10 countries will overtime take effort to increase trades based away from USD and BRICS will gradually decrease their holding of US treasury bonds and USD. By the way as at February 2023, China hold 800 billions of US treasury bonds and not less than 2.5 trillion in hard cold USD. And this holding will eventually reduce this amount to a very small amount. The other developed countries will follow suit ultimately. Why? US weaponizing of USD, arbitrary impose illegal sanction and confiscation of government and individual owned USS assets
The United States already has a military strong enough to squash china without building more equipment. The United States basically created china we could end them if we wanted who do u think released COVID in China. That was USA. We could destabilize that country whenever we want. There society is hanging on by a thread as it is. We can pull that string whenever we want. If you think otherwise you are mistaken
When will it end? That's what they're disputing. I think you're not doing justice to Brent's argument. To compress a large argument down to a single sentence is to inherently distort it. They both agree (on quite a bit, actually) that the dollar as the world's reserve currency will not last, it's just a matter of timing. Peter has been incessantly claiming that the DXY (dollar's value relative to other fiat currencies) will plumet, and Brent agrees. However, Brent thinks that the DXY will skyrocket (I believe he's correct) prior to a precipitous decline. All global debt is denominated in dollars. All commerce is denominated in dollars. Countries need energy. Peter loves to bring up Nixon bring us off of the gold standard, yet never mentions (the true catalyst) Bretton Woods. I like Peter, but we're discussing this in an echo chamber(comment section of his channel, people whom already believe his argument). Remember, he's a gold salesman.. it's in his best interest to claim that the dollar will crash.
thats much more the point today...people are realising that america is a war mongering economic terrorist............thats why the bricss are slapping on economic muscle
@@dalejames486 Bretton Woods is irrelevant, it was just a system. The "catalyst" was the US spending massive amounts of money funding a war in Vietnam and war on poverty back then, and refusing to take responsibility for its reckless spending. So, yes, Nixon and the US government were at fault, and Nixon himself even admitted to being a Keynsian. Peter's pm's business is not very big, and Peter always says to have 10% of your portfolio in gold, and to have the rest invested into businesses that actually produce things people need, and to invest in emerging markets. Peter never says things like, "sell the majority of your assets and buy physical gold", like those Bitcoin hoddlers say about Bitcoin. Peter never even says to "not" buy the paper gold either. Someone like Robert Kiyosaki talks WAY more about loading up on physical pm's than Peter does. So, your argument that Peter is some sort of hardcore gold salesman is weak. Yet, you have the audacity to talk about someone else "distorting" things, you're just projecting
our crooked as administration will look the other way when it comes time to use our military. We will just print money and send that instead. Just because we have the military doesn't mean this administration will use it. 2020 elections, abandoning Afghanistan, proxy Ukraine and ignoring Taiwan are good enough examples.
Peter's message, sadly, is the hopeful one: people will get tired of being robbed and they'll stand up to the United States. They'll start building real economies and move away from the confiscation.
China should dump soon its hold of $870 billion of US's bond. Otherwise, US will confiscated it. Lesson learned from Russia, Afghanistan, Libya, Iraq, Venezuela, etc
Pretty optimistic. He should look at some nations in southAmerica, southEast, africa. I dont want to generalise, I just wanna point out that even terrible economic conditions are barly enough to create a positive kind of revolution. Most of the times governments become even more autocratic just to keep some order in society. And if a nation is unlucky enough their government becomes the target of a regime change operation, where rebells/t3rr0rists are funded and supplied with arms...
@vinaymehta8200 How?-by standing up to the UK and the USA. The Africans are already doing so because they recognise that the Chinese are the way out of US hegemony. The Indians are also waiting on the Chinese.
@@Gooodyoutuber But military action is not the last resort for US. That's what makes USA's hegemony so damn effective. Brent arguments should not be taken lightly.
The biggest reason for the dollar to have lasted so long is because it is the petro dollar. But in recent months, 7 oil producing countries are selling their oil in the buyer’s own currency. This has lessened the need for countries to hold USD. As more and more countries join BRICS and start trading with each other without using the USD, it would further weaken its demand.
The biggest reason the dollar has lasted is because of the strength of the US military. China challenges this. Let’s say if the US military in a future war has a military loss. The dollar will drop significantly. Same if Chinas PLA military has losses, their currency will drop. This will be the key.
@@jeremybstudentpilot5315 ‘Since 1945, the United States has very rarely achieved meaningful victory. The United States has fought five major wars - Korea, Vietnam, the Gulf War, Iraq, Afghanistan - and only the Gulf War in 1991 can really be classified as a clear success.’…The Healthy Journal
The Fed is no doubt at fault when they were too slow in controlling inflation in the beginning and now they are trying to do extreme catchup. The pandemic, the supply chain issues, and the Ukraine war all contribute to this perfect storm of brewing inflation. Don't forget the big spike in housing prices, that's another reason the Fed is having a hard time-fighting inflation
Sincerely speaking I don't know if investing currently is advisable. Notice how evrthing keeps crashing. I'm even looking for a better option on how to make use of my savings; building a strong and stable portfolio that can generate passive incomes for me because I have a few years left before retirement though I have been reading charts and predictions from great investors from the past and present
The current market's uncertainties are one of the reasons I have my daily investment decisions guided by a portfolio-coach, because their entire skill set is built around going long and short at the same time, both employing profit-oriented strategy and laying off risk as a hedge against the inevitable downtrends, and when combined with exclusive information/analysis, it's nearly impossible not to outperform. Since hiring a coach for around two years, I've earned more than $1.5 million in return on investment.
I don't know how old you are, but I'm 53 living in Canada. Your perspective is very shallow. This calamity that is about to implode is a result of decades of corruption which involved both parties. You blame the moment, but this game became optical when JFK was killed.
the problems are far beyond the reach of the central bank but everybody blames it. many underlying issues must be addressed by government but govt just does nothing.
Peter correctly says that China has all the productive capacity as do other countries in Asia. What one should not forget is that Asians are also willing to work their behinds off to better their lives while young people in the West are busy saving the world, arguing about the use of pronouns and cancelling anyone left/right/center who dares to disagree with their naive and simplistic world views. In other words, some people have been raised to work hard and others have been raised to be entitled. You cannot undo decades of evolved culture in a day. The West would be pretty screwed in the scenario(s) considered in this debate.
Young people in the West are actually waiting for inheritance. That's the real problem, and young people go from 20-40 nowadays. Most people don't even have a house in their 40 and/or is still living off their parents.
The big flaw with this idea is you assume the political theater comprises the entirety of the US when the fact is that's not true and that the lazy entitled mentality is really not even close to a majority of the young working class and young population. Basically the technology of the US is actually surpassing asia when you consider how much more advanced the military is in the US is, granted that we are screwed in the fact that our resources for military grade equipment rely about 60% on china, but even with our current existing system we have enough to fight a war they cant win, so that is really why they even cut out the idea of war in this debate. The geographic location of the US as brent mentions is a huge benefit of the US and our allies, as well as trade.
China is old. Its population is decreasing, and probably has been for years but we don't know real demographic statistics. They have the absolute worst demographics and they are nationalists so therefore won't fix their population problem with immigration, like the US will. Their young people are laying flat and there aren't that many of them anyway. How we take advantage of this in Canada is, we are taking in 500,000 young immigrants per year, most of them seem to be Indians and Filipinos. Quite a lot of Sikhs. They work hard and make up for our old fat retarded boomers retiring, and our sensitive gay gen-z.
Good times produce weak men, weak men produce hard times, hard times produce strong men. We are currently in the Good times phase! It will change, just wait a little while longer.
@@-whackd China's demographics is irrelevant. You sound like you've been watching too much Harry Dent. The question isn't if it's fixable or not. The question is if the wealth (the ability to produce) within the country is within your lifetime. The answer is no. Also unlike the US and Canada that has pension for every person in existence, subsidies, etc. China does not. They don't need an ever increasing population to pay for the dying, lazy, subsidized, etc generation. Population only becomes a problem when there is not enough young people to subsidize for the old, disabled, etc welfare people's consumption. That is the whole point of a population problem. They may begin such system like the West, but probably not within your lifetime. So it's irrelevant. Your assessment that 500,000 immigrants (and I agree they are harder working than Canadian born), is not "positive" to Canadians at that point in time because then there will be a rise in competition against locals. This is a short-sighted solution. That's like saying the bucket is leaking, and all you got to do is fill the bucket with fresh water continuously. Those "hard working immigrants" are half to 1 generation. Their kids will become lazy as they are trained in Canada. Then you need to refill the bucket with fresh immigrants/water. Most of these hard workers are only in their youth of 20-40 by 40-50 they are no longer hard working. Need to refill that bucket again.
Yes China is going to collapse. Peter talks about debt but leaves out the part that China has 10 times as much debt as the US has that is actually baked into their banking sector.
@@AndrewManooknah… more like pre ww1 usa, they are excising isolationism (staying away from Russia/USA conflict). When China joins , it will be the judgement day
I think everybody would want to buy American goods. But the the million question is: can everybody afford it ? Americans make the same products at higher prices.
Brent how will the grocery stores be full when our packaging comes from China? Bottle caps, Tupperware, plastic rolls, antibiotics, 80% of all prescriptions get raw materials from China. Parts for tractors 90% are Chinese made. We wouldn’t be able to plant nearly enough as equipment breaks down.
If USA stop provoking people. Other world leaders also keep using other countries as their problems. If we don’t change their attitude. We are going to war.
We're not going to have a conventional war it will be a cyber war with the release of all this new AI. Imagine what they have there not telling us about.
If you can read chinese, go to their social media, and read what their people comment. You would see countless people eager to war with the US. You will know that war is unavoidable.
Peter Schiff has logic. Brent has hope and/in American exceptionalism. That has been the case ever since I started watching debates between these two. The only change has been, that Brent is now pushing his American military supremacy much less than before.
There is a demand for Chinese Yuan in Russia. Argentina now uses Yuan for trading with China. Other countries are following the exodus from US dollars. China has been selling US treasuries over the past year. If things get nasty, they could dump them faster. Alternatively, the United States could default on it`s debt to China just as it defaulted on it`s debt to Russia. I can`t just stop paying my mortgage on the pretext of sanctioning the bank. A default is a default.
America has its hope in blockading china of any raw material imports when and if china decides to not sell their goods in dollarz. Thats why threat of military confrontations by american guests.
China has been building their "Belt and Road" trading system with Asia, Europe and even Africa for over a decade. As an example trade between China and Russia is now rapidly growing. The US will not be able to cut off trade between China and these other countries. This will allow China to pivot away from the USA as their major trading partner without suffering a major economic setback.
@@linmal2242Not really, more and more countries are aligning with China. 70% of the world's biggest trading partner is China. 20 years ago it was the US. And China does not threaten countries with military, so it's easy for those countries to choose China.
I am Chinese and thankful for people like Brent Johnson making policy decisions for US. 😆😆😆😆🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣 He's totally clueless about China. Peter keeps educating him and he was like no, no, no.
This hypothetical winner can be reduced down to the question: what drives an economy, supply or demand? USA represents the demand, China represents the supply. I believe Peter is correct that supply dictates the economy. USA will have a much harder time replicating its scheme which allows it to be an unlimited demander while also finding a supplier of all the good China produces. China will have a much easier time finding buyers. The only argument for a USA win is if USA can convert into a more powerful supplier than China if it needed to.
If America went back to 1900 and have factory workers paid low wages in unsafe conditions on 12hr days. Sure, but that ain't happening in today's America.
He’s also wrong about Brazil. Brazils number one trading partner is China, If America forces Brazil to cut off trade with China it would be economic terrorism. It will be telling the Brazilians to collapse their economy for the sake of U.S imperialism and exceptionalism
_The only argument for a USA win is if USA can convert into a more powerful supplier than China if it needed to._ Considering where US is right now, rebuilding economy would take decades. US would not be starting from 0, it would be starting from -100, due to it fiscal policies and how it whole economy is built around them. Not to mention that it would require almost 180 from it current direction. Something that i do not see happening. Whole system is too perverted and corrupted. It would probably be easier to destroy whole thing and build from 0.
Without demand there's no need for supply....USA should bring jobs BACK to the country, remember when America was the biggest industrial nation in the world, the one who supplied the materials that won 2 World Wars ? Of course the politicians, especially the kind like the sorry senile sleepy socialist occupying the white house, are NOT in control, the ones with the real money and power tell their puppets what to do and they are the ones that built up Communist China. If things were run honestly and for the benefit of the PEOPLE, we'd have Millions of jobs back and bring REAL prosperity to America instead of supporting the most brutal and murderous (100 MILLION killed) and hopefully even bring down the sociopaths in China and benefit the Chinese people
The big difference is that USA communities are collapsing ! Peter hits the nail on the head coming from an industrialist perspective! USA has relied on a suffering world. Now the global south is relying on a suffering USA. Manufacturing is King !
First and foremost, are economic wars and sanctions capitalism or free trade? Absolutely not. Do economic principles recommend non-econonic measures, such as war, for econonic problems? Absolutely not. Then why is the self-declared champion of capitalism and free trade engaged in economic wars and sanctions? Answer: hubris and reckless stupidity. Those who support trade wars and sanctions had better understand that the chicken will always -- absolutely always -- come home to roost. The USSR didn't know this, and imploded.
USA cannot go gold standard because now USA inflation is 6 or 7 % . If USA go gold standard USA inflation will go more than 20% with in a year and rest of the will low inflation. Because USA printing more money than any other country . But now USA is get away so easily because of no measures system as it is fait currency
To me more than inflation, the worry it has caused the eastern world by removing russia from swift is the big reason every country is thinking to diversify on the currency including rely on gold
Intelligent, respectful debate with two able participants. It is hard to defeat Peter who has eloquence and passion for his viewpoint. Thanks for bringing this to us ! How about a Pay Per View Event..... Peter Schiff vs. Janet Yelllen......sadly (for us) Janet would be completely outmatched .
Brad spoke much less but to the point, so he easily won the debate. Peter was constantly offering unreasonable scenarios. His basic idea, if the world were living in a free market economy and there was no corruption, bad governments, ponzi schemes, and everybody was honest and rational then the US would collapse. Well, the world is very much different and in that imperfect world US is the strongest player.
@ US grant, if you can't see that the power of the US is fading fast, you're not paying attention to what's happening in the world. The fact that 85% of the world population is telling the US and West that they are not going to end trade with Russia or sanction Russia says a lot.. 20 years ago this would not have happened, but today the world is not afraid of the West anymore.. If you believe that the non Western world, which is 85% of the world population is going to be servants to the West forever, you are very wrong.. Nothing lasts forever and If you look around in this world, it's easy to see the world is standing up to the West and the end of US empire is near.. Just look how weak the West is in this war, all of them ganging up on Russia and they still can't win.. Also NATO couldn't even defeat the Taliban after 20 years of war.. Whole EU economy is down the drains. If China starts an economic war on the West, it will finish the EU once and forever and then it's just the US alone.. You're weaker than ever.. Good thing for you is that China are not imperialists like the US...
Brent is a washout... his final solution is WAR, he keeps harping about 'the military backup' and how a Hegemon needs to bully in order to win at all cost
Japan don't have a choice, they are a vassal state, if they don't obey, they will be sanctioned and let's face it, it's a nation of teeny little islands and don't have any asian allies post WW2 atrocities in Asia.
Well yeah you can't be an economic rival to a country that controls your foreign policy. Common sense. Still, Japan is very rich and developed so maybe the vassalage is worth it for them.
China won the economic war nearly ten years ago. China has 20 of the top 50 engineering universities in the world and they hold the number 1 position. Chinese technology iterates twice as fast and has the world's most competitive and capitalistic business environment. Talk to an American naval captain about the experience of being in the Taiwan strait or South China Sea, he will be tailed by several Chinese ships with radars and missiles he could only dream of. As fast as the western countries can decouple the internal markets can easily replace Europe，the global south, Russia and it's ex Soviet states combined with the BRI will easily replace the USA and other Anglo-Saxon countries. China can easily feed itself and it's neighbors are more than happy to sell to them. Peter's challenger is from Epoch Times an NED recipient of money that keeps their BS flowing, basically he is a propaganda welfare worker for talking nonsense. I'm sure Peter did the calculus but I think Peter is wasting his time with this clown, l don't think it will hurt Peter's brand. If this was a boxing match Peter is Mike Tyson vs Peewee Herman TKO in the first 6 seconds.
China Achilles heel is the straits of Malacca, threaten that shipping lane with a few missiles or subs then you destroy 80% of China's oil imports. China even by 2050 will be on par with usa but still if they start a war they couldn't fight it longer than 3 month's
If China doesn't fight ww3 by this century by 2125 they will have a population similar to usa so China has limited time to use it up and coming power but we all know a war between nuclear states ends in nuclear war
China's only surpasses usa in Missile tech militant wise, China won't overtake usa military wise by 2050 if not sooner but the whole nato usa power will take China till 2070 but usa also has Japan India Australia so China has to overcome all that
This was a great discussion. The missing obvious question is what would happen if US and China works together for mutual benefit? Both sides agreed that everyone lose in a conflict so why don't we work together.
No it wont happen because US political establishment -- politicans and media -- wont allow cooperation. US only wants war. Today, it is russia, tomorrow china. It will be another country later.
Mutual benefit? Clinton and Bush already tried to do that in the 90s and 00s and look what China did to the US after letting them in the WTO. I get that Jiang Zhemin and his faction wants mutual benefit to the US. They lifted the sanctions in China with the hope that it will shift as the biggest democratic country in the world and its middle class will buy from the US then Xi Jinping became their President and turned China into a bigger authoritarian shithole with predatory capitalism tendencies with it's sole goal being hostile to the West. Jiang Zhemin died last year and now there is no one to stop Xi Jinping's draconian foreign policy.
Germany did send a bunch of delegates to China to increase trade. Europe underneath is fed up of USA hegemony despite some leaders who seem to be looking out for the interests of usa😢 instead of its own people
I think Brent forgot about 50 year or 60 years ago China barely traded with western world and survived. With all the current productivity and infrastructures I don't see China have a worse time than 1960's or 1970's. Survive last time and maybe thrive this time if no trades btw these two countries.
As far as trade is concerned, China and US can most certainly decouple from each other and be able to find alternative buyers/sellers. There might be unique items (such as chips or rare earth) that may result in short term pain. But they would each overcome these hurdles over time. However, the one serious issue for US would be weakening of USD’s reserve currency status. As China unload close to a trillion dollars of treasury bonds, it would send US inflation through the roof and would likely result in unprecedented social unrest.
not just china, many nations aren't stupid, and having witnessed how U$ could just steal Russia's foreign reserves will be quietly dumping d0llars. If you think Weimar Rep's hyperinflation is bad, when d0llars return to U$, they are gonna have to coin a new term like Super Ultra Inflation never seen before, given no one has ever printed so much fiat currency ever.
Agreed. In fact, China has sold down its US Treasury from 1.3 trillion to 800 billion and bought literally tons of gold. More sales coming, and that is why Yellen is eager to go to China to talk this out. I think China will continue to sell down their position. With a complete decoupling, China will lose tons of export opportunity that will shave significant GDP and force lots of Chinese companies into bankruptcy or layoffs. China can buy raw material from other countries at competitive prices, but the US will try to sabotage the purchases. As more countries, Russia, Iran, Brazil, Argentina, Venezuela, etc., move away from the Anglo-Saxon axis, the US will find it hard to sabotage China's buying. On the other hand, the US will buy from someone else, but the problem is that no one makes things cheaper than China. As such, inflation will go up even further. So, relatively speaking, with complete decoupling, both countries will suffer, with the US suffering slightly more in the short-medium term.
@@Birdylockso I think the problem for the US is if the petro dollar disappeared who is going to effectively donate goods to the US as they will be paying with worthless bits of paper. China on the other hand isn’t getting paid by the US so what is the point.
LOL Brent lost 2 Gold Coins to Peter already and he's forever as confident because his Milkshake Theory has made him popular. As a result, he must continue it for his own benefit. It's no different from Harry Dent & Mike Maloney's deflation. In Canada Ontario, prices in all houses have went up from 400k to 1.2M, it's hovering around 800-900k due to rising interest rates. If you were to wait for this so called "HUGE DEFLATION", I think his Milkshake theory was from 2016-ish after Gold collapsed in 2014. So far prices of houses have not went back to 2016 or 2017 or 2018. So that's almost 5+ years of wait and aging. Now lets say if houses in the area I'm talking about was 400K is this house that was 400k in 2016 that is now 800-900k supposed to drop to 200K? I mean if it was 400K then now we are waiting for the big deflation, and it drops down to 400k again. It seems like a complete waste of time over 5-8 years.
This was a fantastic debate. Both sides are extremely well educated on the matter, and it's a shame that schools won't show this kind of stuff aside from government propaganda nonsense.
This format is incredible. Please do more of these debates! It's very refreshing to see both sides of an argument so I can develop a more comprehensive viewpoint myself.
I live in Canada and I buy Chinese carrots at the local grocery store . Can either of you guys explain how this is possible if they have a shortage of farms and food .
The US may still have the worlds strongest military but fighting China on her front yard is not going to end well. There is also this thing called Dongfeng express
@22:59 For example BMW expanded their operaion in Shenyang (1.4Billion ), BASF 10billion in ZhanJiang. Just because you don't read about them, they still exist
Peter correctly says when we stop manufacturing we forget how. We closed sand-case foundries with benzene regulations and rain capture requirements But in China even cab drivers know the basics of investment casting and sand casting
