Nice video - but the major mistake was holding interest rates at close to 0% for 15 years - it has contributed to the house prices bubble and cost of living crisis...they should have raised them slowly over the years rather than over such a short period of time. A health interest rate for the UK is now is about 3.75-4.25%.
Houses have been going up for years and years and years, certainly way more than 15 years! You think houses were affordable 15 years ago?! Ha ha ha ha ha ha
Don’t forget all that money printing by the government and the Bank of England. All that fake money bidding up asset prices 🤷♂️ and they are getting ready to do it again 🙄
@ There should have been a significant 'reset' of house prices following the GFC. Home owners were bailed out at the expense of renters, savers and future buyers. But the low rates policy allowed the bubble to inflate again. Its pretty obvious.
The BoE did print too much money - they are responsible for about half the inflation - and then were too slow to tap the brakes. Government Policy has also been very poor, for example austerity was overdone when we should have been making capital investment. Together they are to blame for the state of the economy.
Very true. Quantitive easing so they say. Money printing is what we call it. If only we had a currency that they literally couldn't print more of, and government couldn't control?? Investigate BTC and XMR
You cannot just drop rates look what happened last time. People spend beyond their means inflation is high. Cannot fall into the trap of 2008. People became to reliant on cheap credit. It forced house prices up even more.
@@paulbo9033 but I can understand more than you hence why I can afford rates going up and still save, I can addled to heat and eat. Unlike you. What do you have 30 to 50k on credit cards a morg you can hardly pay even on 1% interest. Maybe learn to live within your means.
These interest rates are helping me and the missus save for a mortgage deposit. Currently, we are happy that they are high. But we are very lucky in our situation ATM.
Two things you missed out. The reason immigration is not tackled is because the large increase makes the 'per capita' figure look better. Second is that the 'so called' Bank of England is a private corporation, owned by the Rothchild's, to make money and naturally they look after themselves first.Do you think that might influence matters ?
Is that why they are in charge of the USB in Switzerland, who incidentally control all European banks ? Try to reason with facts, not fiction. They are rolling in it as is Goldman/Sachs with an estimated total value of over 400 trillion dollars. You truly believe they have no influence or is it what you LIKE to believe ?
The immigration isn't tackled because the UK needs immigrants, especially in the time of severe skill shortages. With that Rothchild comment you just disclosed who you really are.
@barbthegreat586 it's not all about skills either the dependency rate matters too. We have an aging population with the biggest generation coming towards retirement
@@audie-cashstack-uk4881 Fantastic, I’ll add that to the overall cost of living and taxes this government has cost me to the tune of around 8 grand a year compared to 14 years ago.
Interest rates can never fall to zero again because who apart from the BoE lends money for no return ? I think 4-5% historically is low. This gives a fair return to savers and ensures funds for borrowers.
You forgot to mention who exactly borrowed 0% loans. Those wealthy enough to borrow against their assets and hide it in the isle of man and Cayman islands. Especially those who have denied COVID compensation to workers.
‘The question is’ - is it worth the resulting pain (not the effort) to keep raising interest rates and keeping them raised, when any intelligent person (not an economist) can see that the impact on inflation is going to be very limited. The answer is a very definite NO. You were absolutely correct to criticise the BoE for failing the people in this respect since the Ukraine war commenced. Just tell me how on earth raising interest rates can offset the impact of (primarily) increasing energy costs resulting from such a conflict. By the way - America has played a significant part in inflicting pain on the UK (and many other) economy as a result of their desire to provoke Putin into the conflicts with Ukraine. No problem for them - they have fracked their way out of the economic pain of increasing energy costs.
No getting away from the fact that Brexit has added higher inflationary costs to imported products & this won’t go away by raising interest rates. Whilst this is not the only contributing factor, re-joining the single market would lower this aspect of inflation.
Great video... When I look at the FTSE index my heart sinks when I compare it to the EU indexes. Our economy seems to be as strangled as everything else after so much austerity and failure to invest.
There was no austerity just slower increases. The government spends 42k a year per household a year and take 37k a year in tax. What would it take to not have austerity? 82k per household? It’s simply not affordable. That would be the entire gdp.
@@Cassp0nk I agree with your figures excepting the rhetorical 82K. There are other ways. Increasing tax on the wealthy. Increasing tax on corps. tp a reasonable level. Then there is stimulating the economy which is the most effective method. The U.S, with their Chip Law and government inputs has driven a massive economic surge. Bean counting is not an efficacious way to run an economy and austerity strangles economies.
We haven’t seen the full effect of high interest rates. As millions come off low rate fixed mortgages in the next 3 years we will see the effect. Less disposable income and repossessions.
Low interest rates encourages reckless lending creating a huge Debt crisis in the long run which will cause recessions and depression etc. So low interest rates are actually not viable solution in the long run. Remember what caused the 2007-08 global recession. Hence loans must only be given after thoroughly checking the Clients credit worthiness. Period
That's not what caused 2008 Global Crisis but nice attempt at sounding smart - giving loans to people that can't repay them wasn't the problem, the problem was the pyramid scheme that was built by layering, repackaging and layering said debt few times over which was fully supported by regulators until it blew up. Keeping interest rates low has no downside as long as you actually regulate the banking industry
This raises the question as to what a 'normal' rate would be, outside of just using relative terms. Historical average? And there are all sorts of things changing in the banking infrastructure that change monetary dynamics, reserve ratios and types of lending vehicles, regulations around degrees of lending. In my opinion, no-one has a clue what's going on, and the theatre of the governor of the BOE as magician figure is ridiculous. Financial journalism is also ridiculous, most of the time it's also theatre/soap opera, it relies on the knowledge asymetry between consumer and journalist to give the consumer the impression that there's genuine knowledge/apha being provided. And most time is spent by journalists second-guessing what the BOE may or may not do, whether there'll be a miniscule change of rates based on the whims of a handful of people who set policy. We're still living in the dark ages in this domain, compared to the technological sophisitcation of other areas.
@@UknownUknown-rk3cp But who is going to regulate the banks in the UK when they're the dominant power-base? Similarly, how can other sectors like manufacturing grow when the pound is kept so high as a result of demand for 'financial services'? We seem to be in a dead-end.
Lending towards those who think themselves wealthy enough to take on the risk. I don't know anyone who seriously thought they can get out of their way to borrow at 0% other than couples who waited years to buy a home, and a certain boss of a Mercedes dealership and landlord of a industrial office in Dublin...
No Growth, Brexit, Aging Ailing Workforce (Covid), Increasing Wealth, Income and Regional Inequality (promoted by Government) and a total lack of Infrastructure Investment for over a decade has left our country very very sick. Unless we properly address Inequality (via Wealth Tax), Housing (building more Affordable Homes and Social Housing) and Growth (political and financial Stability attracting Foreign Investment and re-negotiating our trade relationship with Europe) then we are entering a lost decade for UK
Wealth tax, your solution to recession is more tax lol. Look up Mark Parham youtuber, he is a wealthy entrepreneur who decided to move to Dubai to pay zero tax. The whole process took him two weeks... The solution is less tax not more.
Interest rates are still too low. The reason people think it is high is because they have not been around long enough to realise this. Money is still to cheap. if it costs so little borrow then it has little value and why would you work for little value and that is where we now. High rates mean house prices will drop (price discovery) to make them affordable
The 2% ideal inflation rate is just an arbitrary figure, it’s not critical. Anyhow, when interest rates were raised the majority of the inflationary pressure came from items we had no control over. So maybe the bank over raised and and added to the stagnation.
It's interesting that the central planners have a target inflation rate of 2% but have no issues printing billions when it suits them. What did people expect would happen when you dilute the value of currency. If you want inflation at 2% then that means you can't print more than 2% per year on average and they have done way more than that.
Not enough housing stock was built despite various promises over the years. So demand outstripped supply. Interest rates are just a way to fund shareholders and bankers bonuses and wages. The uk has the worst and some of the highest citizens taxation in the world. Way to go uk!
A very interesting and considered view of the state of the economy, the Gov & BOE’s actions and their consequences, plus effect on the people ‘stuck in the middle’ … Thks.
And the chancellor will probably change policy that might increase inflation next week, so they might hold off until after that especially after the drama with Kwasi Kwarteng
There was a good argument that previously low interest rates have been a key factor that lead to skyrocketing house prices: They made property a relatively low risk asset with a good likelihood of a high reward yield, that’s easy to acquire within a liberalised housing market.
The economy would experience a lift if new housing construction picked up. Lots of folks looking for an affordable home. New supply, and cheaper starter home/apt type builds would be great.
They have to match the UK base rate with the FED rate otherwise the STG will fall creating import inflation. That's why the BOE always has their rate meeting the following day etc.
@@Cassp0nk No UK government has backed industry. They've only backed the City of London in preference. The UK can really only export High Tech and Entertainment, it will never be competitive in mass production. Everything is about the City Financial Services, if interest rates are lower than the US large flows will go there. The UK economy will splutter along this year and get taken out as the US hits the rails in 2025.
BOE probably privately accept that the UK inflation calculation is a bit flaky as some analysts ackowledge. Energy is a fudged figures eg standing charges going up; mortgage costs use a proxy, rents going up, living wage going up, mobile and broadband contract increase, car insurance a record high, Red Sea higher costs will feed through, Services sector very sticky - easier to see inflation going up rather than coming down. Even mortgage rates fropped for a few weeks but have now risen again. Prudent to see the impact of all these factors. Credit card and mortgage have both seen increased missed payments over recents months.
You should ask why is the U.K. in recession and still high employment rate ? It’s because a large number of Brits have decided to leave the workforce or are sick. And that is a big issue.
Inflation coming done means absolutely nothing to Joe Tax Payer. The damage is already done - high inflation have already pushed prices up through the roof. Inflation coming down doesn't mean prices coming down - most people don't understand this.
High inflation actually helps debtors who have fixed rate mortgages. In certain parts of Europe inflation reached 20% temporarily. Inflation is a giant money redistribution scheme. When the economy is no longer growing, you need to redistribute the money to keep the economy going.
Do we think that we will see another round of price increases after April when the minimum wage increases and business operating costs increase? The wage price spiral hasn't really had the impact yet, there will also be a lag effect on this. As people have more money in their pocket when they first get their pay rise, the demand for goods and services will see a surge also, there are 2 inflationary pressures from just one thing in April
Myself sold the house an have 630k in the bank at 5% interest I'm comfortable with 31k interest. However having a home seems like an important thing to buy now. If there are a lot of people with savings then maybe you have a point. I don't know if there are many people sold and in savings like me .
To not trash the currency against the USD and other currencies which are not going to drop. Time to pay the piper after QE and ZIRP for too long and put off the real pain of the 2008 Credit Crunch
The issue is why is a central authority allowed to decide what the rate of interest should be, as it's always going to prioritize it's short term political interests at the expense of everything else.
@@Toodyslexicforyouwho do the Bank of England work for then? When it was made independent it effectively worked for the banks. What is good for the banks isn’t necessarily good for the economy as a whole. Take the excess lending to people who shouldn’t really get loans. Add that to the excessive leveraging the banks were dong and you see why 2008 happened. As it’s the Bank of England that controls money supply it needs to be the one controlling interest rates. Anything else would be non workable.
@@davideyres955 It is actually in the interest of the banks for people to have money, so they can spend it. Do you think a bank is happier, if 65 million people are rich, or just 2 million and the rest is surviving?
Interest rates need to be relatively high to sell UK government debt. Lowering interest rates would likely reduce the.value of sterling against other currencies increasing the cost of imports abd therefore inflation
We are a poor country because of GFC, Austerity, Covid and the Russia/Ukraine war. We need to reset expectations, invest wisely and aim for a steady 2% increase in productivity per year. This productivity can be achieved by investment in renewable energy, selective immigration and leveraging AI and robotics. And whilst we are at it we should build quality low rise housing blocks, e.g. 5 stories, no cladding, high ceilings and spacious rooms etc.
Good idea though, I think there could be a higher multiple effect on expenditure on NHS tech department report saying it was at least £30billion + behind. Digitation was one of the major factors in the strong growth in pre 2008
So called recession and was out again the next month. Trivial number sizes. The real thing is recessions are not any problem. No one actually notices them, any more than they feel great as there is technical growth. Sneaky graph! Rates above inflation at the start, and now barely back above. The Wrong bit is them EVER going below inflation. That must not ever be permitted again. 5% is ok only when inflation is safely below the 2% target. Higher rates are ALWAYS good things to have. The problem is always low or not high enough rates. We in the west are so well off really there is not a thing to whinge about. Pure greed imagines getting ever better at all noticeably is some right or expectation. What makes life better is the advance of tech. Not more money. When I left school pocket electronic calculators did not exist. Now I have a great pc able to create 3d artificial whole worlds, and links live to the entire world, instant translation too, a phone in my pocket wherever I go. Digital cameras replaced old film ones, what a usability and freedom from costs they are. Information easily found, not a hard trip to a useless local library. Goods of infinite variety never in old high streets turn up at my door days after I buy them. I could make things on a 3d printer, with finer detail than old model Airfix kits, or many other similar devices at home that once were the domain of vast corporate machines. Raise rates, make the world better, less use of debt.
Our real economy terms is on par with Greece's, while our wealth is being siphoned off by record high energy costs, insurance and rents that goes into the shareholder's dividends of speculative investors which are large enough to heavily influence the rents of "small landlords"
Low interest rates led to speculative house buying, mass Immigration kept wages low. House demand high and destroyed the country's GDP with mass competition for low end jobs. We literally gave our kids the worst poison chalice possible. Leaving the EU cemented these inequalities and where otherwise there might have been a mass exodus of our youth to better opportunities we instead have other people's youth fighting for the same jobs. Reducing mass Immigration, a rise in interest rates to kill off the greed within housing and a UK centric jobs market will be the only way to hold this greedy self centred country together..and still F the socialist nightmare that is the EU.
There are pros and cons. Do you think people in the U. S. who refinanced into 2% or less 30 year mortgages will ever sell their homes ? It's why there has been record low inventory. I know people with 1100 and 1200 dollar mortgages that bought homes in 2018. I know people with lesser homes who bought in 2023 with 3k mortgages. Those that bought in at low rates will never sell.
@@terryj50 Ah, I see. Thanks! Follow up question is why is this so much shorter than the typical US mortgage (30 years) or why is the US so much longer.
@@unholyiiamas I think it’s more about the bank making money here I have only had my house here 5 years, so only renewed once I got a 2 year fixed first and 2nd was 5years here they charge 1000 pounds every time you renew. My house in the USA I had 30 years. I think they are looking at it here.
@@Toodyslexicforyou Mortgage is the only debt people should work with in their life. Everything else should be 'as you need'. Economy would adjust to it. That being said, there are people that literally have no choice in this and have to borrow. Try to have a family and you will be squeezed out.
@@terryj50 what is your sentence trying to say? If your saying that people waste money. Ok. If your trying to say interested rates don’t matter on mortgages then your wrong.
Dismissing QE is easy but nothing else could have been done. The way it was used was wrong. Instead of giving it to people directly they inflated assets and further enriched the rich. Interest is usury. A very crude tool to control the money supply. It is taxing people (a poll tax). Taxing money itself is the best way. Profits and price gouging were not mentioned. Look at corporation profits. Energy prices doubled and have only reduced a bit. There is the inflation. Money going to savers (who literally have money) comes from somewhere else. It is not earned. Having more money gains more interest, for no work. What equation is that? There’s your increasing inequality. Usury was once a crime and a sin against God (I’m not religious) but Shakespeare’s The Merchant of Venice is never performed now. Pounds of flesh are metaphorically being taken all around.
The UK is in a stagflation where the real "danger" is wage growth. The wages have not kept up with inflation and the cost of living; wages are highly competitive, and businesses are willing to hire; therefore, there is low unemployment. However, there is only a question before unions and general voters demand higher salaries, pushing up inflation. Lowering the interest rates lets inflation loose, higher consumer demand, more borrowing and more leverage to demand increased wages.
They thought this in Turkey and decided not to raise the interest rates, then ended up with 100% inflation before finally putting the interest rates up and bringing it back down. There are real world examples to show this just isn't the case
Bear in mind that interest rates are just ONE factor coming into play in economic performance and inflation. However this is lost in the media narrative of portraying central bankers as firefighting-like heroes, the central bankers themselves like the attention so they overplay their own abilities instead of admitting there's a lot of factors they have no control over. If there's a war in Ukraine that makes cereal grains costlier, those commodities will remain costly regardless of whether the interest rate is set at 0, 10 or 50%.
I live in Bournemouth. If I would want to save for a good flat, I would have to work 60+ hours to earn enough to afford a good living. I choose the other option, save and move away and have a better life(Scotland)
Aren't they compelled to keep interest rates in line with their booming uncle Sam hegemon? Farage's brexit Britain "taking back control" 🤣 Colony of trump😶