Why China Will Not Last This Decade - Peter Zeihan 

1990. The Economist. China's economy has come to a halt. 1996. The Economist. China's economy will face a hard landing 1998. The Economist: China's economy entering a dangerous period of sluggish growth. 1999. Bank of Canada: Likelihood of a hard landing for the Chinese economy. 2000. Chicago Tribune: China currency move nails hard landing risk coffin. 2001. Wilbanks, Smith & Thomas: A hard landing in China. 2002. Westchester University: China Anxiously Seeks a Soft Economic Landing 2003. KWR International: How to find a soft landing if China.. 2004. The Economist: The great fall of China? 2005. Nouriel Roubini: The Risk of a Hard Landing in China 2006. International Economy: Can China Achieve a Soft Landing? 2007. TIME: Is China's Economy Overheating? Can China avoid a hard landing? 2008. Forbes: Hard Landing In China? 2009. Fortune: China's hard landing. China must find a way to recover. 2010. Nouriel Roubini: Hard landing coming in China. 2011. Business Insider: A Chinese Hard Landing May Be Closer Than You Think 2012. American Interest: Dismal Economic News from China: A Hard Landing 2013. Zero Hedge: A Hard Landing In China 2014. CNBC: A hard landing in China. 2015. Forbes: Congratulations, You Got Yourself A Chinese Hard Landing …. 2016. The Economist: Hard landing looms for China 2017. National Interest: Is China's Economy Going To Crash? 2020. Economics Explained: The Scary Solution to the Chinese Debt Crisis 2021. Global Economics: Has China's Downfall Started? 2022. Cathie Wood: China’s COLLAPSE Is FAR Worse Than You Think 2022. Business Basics: China’s Economic Crisis, GDP is Crashing, Protests Everywhere. China's financial crisis is Here.

And when 2030 rolls by and China is still a nation, I want my 11 minutes and 10 seconds back with interest.

Fifteen years ago I was hearing the same dire predictions. Back then the line was 'Their banking system is a joke, it's a house of cards, just wait until the Olympics have been and gone. Everything will fall apart.' Uh-huh. Yeah, well... I pity the ordinary Chinese people who are caught in the trap of perpetual lockdown. We had our share of that in Australia, and thankfully we're past it.

The salient point to bear in mind with regards to China is that , unlike western governments, they look to the long term 15-20 years. Western politicians sadly only look to the next elections and there lies the nub of the problem.

One can go back and forth about this subject all day and night…but being a former Veteran and someone who has spent some time in the Pentagon, I can say this…without being specific… The DOD, NSA, CIA and numerous think-tanks throughout this country, study China from top to bottom every minute of every day… I think this guy has some valid points, but he’s just scratching the surface when it comes to a geo-political and strategic analysis of China…

This guy is right. China has been dying for 5000 years, but still in the process of dying. How many thousands years needed to complete this process. So funny to have such a mindset.

Very interesting however! 3:30 I was living in China 15 years, I had all my vacinations in China, returning to UK a few months ago and caught covid, 2 days sick and fine. My point! Chinese will not die but they think they will.

A 250 year old former country (now just an economic zone w/ nukes) is saying a 5 millennium old civilization is going to evaporate. You can't make this up😂

As Roger Stone once said to me "China doesn't have the Oil for War"

Surely, that's been what a lot of "geopolitical experts" believed in the past 30 years...

It's ridiculous to claim that China "can't participate in manufacturing supply chains"; literally thousands of factories in China are open at this moment;

I am actually a bit surprised by this guy, coz hardly could I find even a single point right about China in his speech. Anyone who has spent several months in China will get my point. It would be the best gift to China if all the so-called geopolitical analysts in USA are like him.

Chinese culture had been around for some 5000 years and I think it will continue for at least 10 more years.

Yes Please, Please make the politicians in the USA believe this.

They'll survive, of course they will, these countries always find a way to respond and adapt.

China has over a 3000 year history compared to the U.S 250 years. Chinese has discipline, patience and are group focused, they will overcome any short term obstacles and rise to dominance.

There is no lack of conman in anywhere on earth, particularly in the USA !

He sounds very convincing to himself. Good job!

Peter Zeihan deserves the Gordon Chang Award for his efforts!😆

If Peter Zeihan was ever relevant, his relevance will not last this decade, because the Internet doesn't forget goofy predictions like the one in this video. Relative to Mr. Zeihan's wispy arguments, China is rock solid.

Peter is more of a comedian rather than a political analyst.

I have heard this many times before, yet China is still standing.

To the people that say “ i knew this was coming” Cmon, you did not, this dude slapped everyone in the face with his recent book and turned conventional wisdom on its head.

Considering how connected our economies are, I struggle with isolating the demise of one super power without considering our own local fiscal blemishes. The west has been exporting its inflation for decades. Hard working Chinese are going to lose their retirements due, in part, to their government enabling a property bubble. However, I see similar conditions existing close to home as well.Central banks have somehow managed to create massive asset bubbles that may result in similar 'pain'. We are in the beginnings of a quantitive tightening cycle in the mouth of an impending recession. How can anyone be throwing a rock when all of us are living in glass houses?

I think I agree with his analysis. American problems are internal.

So let me get this straight: a country and civilisation that has lasted close to 5000 years is going to have trouble lasting another 10?

This guy has the movement, delivery and facial expressions of a standup comic while trying to make broad and highly questionable claims about current and future conditions in China. I wouldn't bank on it, but he obviously believes what he believes and wants to entertain you as he worries you about that. I don't expect geopolitical commentary to be the same sober monotone delivery from every pundit, but this delivery undercuts the seriousness and credibility of the speech content.

China will always survive in this way or that. Don't worry.

Yes, , Just another load of anti-China rhetoric. Where's the in depth analysis to support his thesis? Did he study history in school?

China have long history. I bet US will likely gone first seeing how seperated they are now. From top to bottom.

The oil problem is the same as the Japanese navy had during ww2

Zeihan is pretty good as a standup comedian. He's turned being wrong into an artform.

I am watching this from India a country where as a child we used to read that we would be overtaking the Chinese economy by 2020, now it's the year 2022. The thing is that the west over enthusiasm in downplaying countries with differing ideological views has created a world order where we live in a make believe scenario while the monster grows bigger and bigger.

Zeihan's theory of money may not be on point, but the possibility of him being close to accurate on resources is quite an eye opener.

A talented stand-up comedian!

Zeihan's last book "Accidental superpower" almost all his predictions in that book have failed materialized. Just take all these so called experts with a grain of salt.

If everything was static i agree with Peter, but Russia as well as China recognize the problem and create new customers, allies and suppliers all the time. Its all dynamic. Russia permafrost will not freeze the pipelines because there is no customers moving their oil. They will hustle to reduce being cut off. This is not North Korea were nothing goes or functions to get in or out. Most countries realize that after COVID and the Ukraine conflict and reduce the risk. The Chinese Navi has not been in a hot war since I was born 1974, so their reach and capabilities + not high ranking officer with any experience might be worse then Russia unless they take on undefended islands.

he forgot about the historic drought plaguing china right now, massive blackouts in major cities.

Prioritising health in a country where the air is thick with pollution, rivers are full of heavy metals, and there is literally not a single bird in the sky.

The world has a better chance of being better if we learn to cooperate with each other.

Being an Indian who lived in and out of Chiina many times, there is only one thing I can say. It's the people who builds and destroys a nation. If you have a free thinking nation that stands together, nothing can destroy it.

A look into what made America great--at least in the later part of the eighteenth century--can be found in the book Team of Rivals by Doris Kearns Goodwin. The book says that newly-elected President Abraham Lincoln CHOSE to have cabinet members and other advisors with a variety of views, often in sharp conflict to his own. While Abraham Lincoln often had to make very difficult decisions, he did so with a broad knowledge of many of the factors involved.

Peter Zeihan: Gordon G. Chang is my teacher in university. Gordon G. Chang Is one of those most distinguished intellectuals in the world.

I am a fan of this Peter Zeihan. I am also a fan of Gordon Chang. They bring us joy.

I believe China won't collapse but by the end of the decade will go into an extended perhaps permanent period of stagnation.

When I was born my father told my family that we are gonna leave China cuz it's collapsing in a few months. I graduated high school this year, China is soon to be no.1. Not saying it can't happen, but take it with a container box of salt.

Our government won't let them fail. We need their people too much.

Interesting contrarian view. Most points not well evidenced. But the key observation that China is dependent on oil imports mostly from the Middle East and that such imports are easily interdicted both by US surface and submarine forces was well taken. In addition, China has an export based economy that would be shut down globally by the US Navy. China is building a navy but it is short on substantial ships and submarines and it takes decades to build a navy that is actually effective, well-trained, and has first-rate battle tactics.

To counter the oil problem; China is developing the silk road, which, in theory, allows roads, shipping ports, and railroads to transport energy to multiple spots throughout China. A massive undertaking indeed with plenty of problems.

The scenario could change in the next 5-10 years. Europe is in the process of becoming less dependent on Russian oil and gas. So Russia will be forced to look for new customers and this is where China comes in. There are still hardly any pipelines to China, but that could change quickly. And with this secure energy supply over land, in the future you will no longer be so dependent on oil tankers.

This video clip is another version of Gordon Chang, the author of books " the coming collapse of China" I do understand that how mad, angry, frustrated that the US sees China was being so successful in all phases: such as economy, space program, infrastructures, science, medical..ect. you name it. And now China is the world manufacturer, the world 2 nd. Largest economy, (might be 1st already), the world successful in high speed rails running all with clean energy. Remember China was a very very poor country, seeing it rose and rising why not applause? No because it is clearly we are very selfish, and clearly we always have that jealous mentality... China had never invaded the West & the US, but in the other hand the West and the US had invaded China many times in the past.

Hey, love this content and thanks for the upload. But please could you in the intro/description let us know when this talk was given? It’s really relevant for context! Thanks!

China imports a large percentage of nearly all commodities to keep its factories running. They use as much oil as the US but need to import 75 to 80% of it. USA imports only about 25% of its oil and most comes from Canada and Mexico. To beat China in a war the adversary only needs to sink the commodity ships going to China, then their economy stops, along with their ability to wage war. That's why the US has over 140 submarines and is building the fleet out to nearly 200 subs.

If this guy is praised for any idea he has , we're doomed. His intellectual capacity is void.

Since 2000 + years, the Chinese nation had endured many catastrophes of magnitude which would have wiped out other nations.

Evergrande 2022 = Lehman Brothers 2008

China and the US are so economically integrated that whatever happens to one will have a profound impact on the other, as well as the rest of the world. Maintaining this balance of power is crucial.

Can we have the link to the full lecture??

why China will not last this decade? they have last for 5000 years.

I remember reading a book back in 2006 about how China would not last that decade. I don't understand the appeal to this kind of fantasy fiction.

Both Peter Zeihan and George Friedman are social engineers much more than analysts. They create an US-centric version of possible future and attempt to sell it as the only possible one.

Interesting lecture and explaination.

CHINA is DONE... Yeah that's what they have said 4000 years ago LMAO

China: 4000 years of civilization, 17 historical periods Peter Zeihan: China will not last this decade 🤣🤣🤣

this guy reminds me of that con man from the simpsons

would love to see Peter Zeihan debating Martin Jacques!

These Americans live in their own dream world, they see things happening in other countries, but fail to see that they are already there.

This man seems to be well informed on important issues. My question is this: why is the US spending money it does not have, in some of the same ways China does???

I agree with Peter Zeihan's basic analysis of the problems China is facing. In fact, in some areas, I think he might be understating them. However, for me, his analysis falls short because -- IF China collapses -- we have some very serious questions that our leaders need to know the answer to. 1. What will be the nature of the collapse? Will it be limited to financial/economic collapse. Like the US system collapsed during the Great Depression & Dust Bowl, but our political system wasn't fazed. Or, will the collapse be more like the fall of the Soviet Union, where the center failed, and the constituent parts split off. China has had several periods where that has happened. 2. If the political center fails, and China breaks into multiple parts -- who would rule those parts? What kind of political system might they adopt? Will any be pro-US, or pro-west? Will they be war-like, or accommodating? How should the US navigate that situation? What are the threats, risks, and opportunities that we may face? 3. What role would the PLA play in the change of regime? Especially if the center holds. 4. Can the center hold? Is that even a possibility? 5. What other ways can China collapse besides military coup, failure of center, and financial/economic? 6. Can the process of collapse cause a war to break out? If so, who would be the enemy? India? Taiwan? someone else? I have way more questions. This is what I would like to see analyzed. Concluding that China will fail is really low hanging fruit, and doesn't take much to understand that. A few years ago, it was prescient. Now, its old news. C'mon Peter, put on your thinking hat, and do some real analysis. We need it now.

Well it sounds reasonable,the biggest problem I have with what was said is it’s what I want to hear.

If Americans believe what he said then don’t need to worry about China as a competitor of us. Just leave it alone or as your own words , let it fall.

I've come across this guy before. He makes a nice living I expect; but he makes it from dramatic statements based on specious logic.

I don't agree with his conclusions but it was a great lecture. His maps don't include the Power of Siberia Pipeline. Why can't china get all their energy needs from Russia? Why does Zeihan make it sound like China is isolated? Remember the BRICS nation could just form their own trading block, am I tripping or is there a lot of factors not being addressed here.

I have more confidence in a system that saves and invests than in a system that borrows and spends.

Well, China has been around for five thousand years, I think I’ll live long enough to see China in existence next decade.

Brilliant analysis. Thank you.

This is a simplistic analysis. China will still be around in 30 years. Yes, China has a lot of problems. The economy is more fragile now. The population will suffer. The population might decrease. But that's the beauty of a dictatorship. The suffering of poor individuals is subsidiary to the survival of the state. China is a long way from being a failed state. China can and will flex its growing military might and cause a lot of problems in SE Asia and the world.

You cut off the real reason; which is what he spends most of his time on. Demographics.

I see the opposite with NATO slowly backing out on the USA, America will be standing alone

I have a feeling about him being more as an entertainer rather than a serious analyst. His facts align with how an average Westerner would feel, but sadly no serious, credible evidence was presented. As a Chinese living in the US who never liked Xi from day 1, I'd say his argument that Xi's running a one-man-show is far from how it appears as long as one reads the latest drafts of every Five Year Plan (not sure how many people do when they think about or study China). Political opinions aside, those drafts were very well written, carefully thought out, and the policies were designed around them. I wish US had a long-term strategy like that. The Shanghai lockdown was a total mess, and the annoyance with all the over-reactive COVID precautions is taking its tolls, but no more serious lockdowns happened since, so his argument on a long-term supply chain issue was flawed to say the least. Personally I'd guess that Xi wanted political gains rather than health gains by over-reacting to COVID, just like how Trump wanted political gains rather than health gains by under-reacting to COVID; both, imho are total disasters. When you see US from outside, you'd see mostly crazy divided parties and idea gaps amongst people, mass shootings, crazy inflation, etc. Same with China. Things appear a lot worse over the news than they actually are. Economy this year is crap in China so far for various reasons, but I feel that China's economy is taking the time shifting for the better. Think South Korea 1997 only less bad. What really makes or breaks is the tech war with US in the coming decade -- if China can pull this off then there's the China Century (or big war with US) up ahead, if not then China doesn't even stand a chance. As a Chinese I wish the best for China (not Xi) emotionally, but for US/Western audience here, I'd say that the tech war was the right move only a tad bit too late (although there's really nothing wrong with Huawei security). There's very little the US can (or need) to do here; it's mostly just wait and see if China can catch up with the key technologies, mostly chips and softwares. Honestly China is the hardworking one here (which I truly respect), but how Xi controls the nation worries me greatly. Think Germany 1933. I'm never pro-CCP (I feel that I have to say this since trolls think I'm pro-CCP whenever I say things even just a little less anti-China), but as someone bilingual living in the US but also follow China closely I feel the need even just to share a little bit of what I see. A decade ago people were talking about the Thucydides Trap, and today we're already in it. This is bad for everyone, and even worse if there's misunderstanding and misjudgment. Think Europe 1914.

Dream on! P.s… Let sleeping dogs lie 🤫

I suspect the Chinese economy will adjust similarly to how the United States did moving from an industrial producer to a consumer industry with service, tech and financial sectors. The biggest challenge for them will be handling this transition without unemployment going over 10%. 10% of 2 billion is a lot of angry people, especially people who used to have jobs that permitted savings and wealth gain. Compared to how it is for the "lower" industries in the US where large sectors of employed workers are in stagnated wage gains that can't keep up with the rising costs of living. A cost that is fueled by the huge wealth gains many Americans can make in other sectors (think Walmart employee vs Developer both living in San Francisco). Still, it seems pretty obvious that they are looking to expand their export markets to Africa in hopes that they can keep the industrial sector going as well as possible and employ as many factory workers as possible. They have a lot of central control of their economy and the leaders are fairly serious about managing their countries growth and less preoccupied with Reality TV Show style politics like we have here in the US. I don't think it will be a smooth path, but I don't see the train derailing. *edit After looking at recent Chinese leadership and attitude, it looks like they are going to try to be more towards North Korean like isolation and posturing. This is not a good hallmark for successful economic gains.

Actually, the Chinese are now engaged with Asia, which is the world's largest market. Also, the Chinese are aware of their weaknesses and have no illusions about them. Their goal is to become a moderately modern society by 2050

Thank you All Things Humanities. Your warn or curse alerts us and makes us do better to survive this decade. Thanks.

wow. First time seeing a western person who really understands China. Most western "China experts" are clueless.

A crowd-pleasing talk for sure 😂. However Peter doesn’t understand China - at all. A Westerner can take predictive stabs on western country and culture issues and get some right even if just by luck. But his intuition makes his China predictions worse than random. So don’t take this too seriously.

nah, very simplistic ideas. I remember a book 2 decades ago called the coming collapse of China. What happened is they adapted. Now there are lots of problems in China and they dont have many friends but still countries continue doing business with them. German companies continue to invest huge sums, western banks still deepening ties. The biggest issues are demographic, the population is getting old and the young are less commited than prior generations

Funny, one man knows that a whole country is done🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

I can't say I found the presentation to be very thorough and he is needlessly dramatic. China has 26% of the world's reserves of Rare Earth Elements and produces 80% of the world's supply. Those metals are needed for high technology equipment (used in renewable energy - and China essentially owns solar panels -, military equipment and more). If you only look at hydrocarbon, it all looks really simple. Nearly 20% of the USA's imports come from China. It would be devastating for the USA (and the world in general) if China did not last the decade. It's also very silly to consider the western world as being stable unlike China as it regularly goes through crises, which occurred as recently as 2008 when China provided support. China as a country is going to keep enduring, and will probably do so for as long as civilization exists, but sure it will undoubtedly face crises, changes and we can expect decline due to some of its policies.

China is minding her business and working hard by building up the world and lifting countries up higher heights.

Over time, China will become less dependent on oil, as they build more electric vehicles. China is currently building more EVs than the rest of the world combined.

Peter Zeihan is most probably correct but the US must be on guard and have to act correctly and strategically to maintain that global leadership.

Just another load of anti-China rhetoric. Where's the in depth analysis to support his thesis? Did he study history in school?

Interesting video!

He raised valid points. He did not mention that there are forces breaking down the US way of life. Whichever system fails 1st will by default makes the other the winner.

My concern with Peter’s position that the collapse of the PRC is inevitable is that the CCP has a governance model in neighboring states which successfully ensured regime survival despite widespread famine and immiseration: Stalinism. Both the USSR and the DPRK survived widespread famines by implementing totalitarian cults of personality. It shouldn’t surprise us if China goes the same route.

Sounds entirely plausible. China's government is brittle as the Aztec government was. In the Aztec government, everyone relied on one man at the top. When the Spaniards took him off his throne, the whole system collapsed because they lost direction. Xi in China is actually emulating what Stalin did in the Soviet Union and the Soviet Union only lasted 80 years. It was too brittle. This is why it is NEVER a good idea to centralize power as is happening in D.C. today. Donald Trump had it right. Return power to the American people, i.e., distribute it so that governments don't become brittle and therefore easily toppled.

Zeihan has spoken to Gordon Chan. The writer of Coming collapse of China. Two decades ago. 😁

Well, all questions and challenges China facing are legit. BUT, all the reasoning is just far off. But what else can you expect from a decades long USA cheerleader and China doomer who finally see some lights from the recent chaos and can't help but promoting his stories. People believe what they want to believe, including Zeihan. As for "China is done"... well, haters can pray on that.

I've read several of his books over the past decade, and somehow he's been right in the majority of his projections.