But I do like to be political so I will say that if Trump gets back into office he will cut regulation and help people to more easily build homes. It's not just the not-in-my-backyard issue with building. It's all the requirements and fees that they put on people that want to build. In some areas it could actually double the cost of building a new home.
The regulations are ridiculous as well. Agreed. I'm for less regulations so that capitalism can flourish and problems can be fixed by the market, not new legislation, that almost always causes more harm than good. The problem is that both sides of the aisle use more laws as the solution, rather than less laws. I think Trump is the first politician to ever suggest removing 2 laws for every 1 that is added. If that occurred, that would be a step in the right direction. @@lostintime8651
I deal with upper middle class “average” people through my business and I hear the same story multiple times a day. A lot of them are starting to realize they bit off more than they can chew with monthly payments. The multiple $1000 car payments, $3000+ mortgage payments and now with gas, food and just about everything going up, they are struggling to stay out of the red. I’ve noticed almost everyone has been paying me with a credit card for the last few months. It’s normally 50% cash 50% card. Feels like a bubble to me but who knows what’s next, a pin or more air?
I agree. We are about to see a recession for the ages. Too much money printing, too many people in debt. Once people stop spending money, the velocity in the economy slows down. Small businesses go bankrupt, huge job losses. That then causes foreclosures. Corporate investors no longer interested in buying properties because no one can pay rent. I predict this will happen in in the next 12 - 18 months when it becomes very apparent. Until then everyone will be dancing in 2024 while the music stopped in 2023.
Phil I just finished reading your book. And it blew me away. The last 2 years I’ve seen across social media about real estate and their alleged easy ways to make $10+k on one deal. You set that scam straight explained in great detail with little need to read between the lines. Thank you for making such valuable information so affordable. Looking forward to some day qualifying to work with you some day.
I love Phil's videos. I have seen the "Crash Boys" trying to sell a crash for almost 2 years. And I have said this for the whole time! Phil always spits out the strait truth! And I will add this as well. As soon as rates come down, buyers will put more upward pressure on prices.
I agree with Phil’s main point. The one thing I don’t understand is the argument that people with low interest rates not selling their homes has a major influence on inventory. Even if these people with low interest rates were selling their homes, wouldn’t most of them just buy another home, thereby canceling out the effect on inventory?
If they sell, taking the appreciation of the past few years with them, they can go buy a comparable house for twice the monthly payment. Not an attractive prospect.
Rates!! Why would someone sell a 3-4% mortgage to purchase an 8% with MUCH higher payments? They won't unless they have to, and unemployment may pay enough to cover those low rate mortgage payments if they get laid off. Which means only motivated sellers are left, those that must sell for some reason or another (death, divorce or job relocation are common). I hope that helps your understanding to get deeper, great ?, keep em coming
@@USABeauboy What area of Cali are you in? Learning how to navigate the two worlds of private and statutory is why I'm still here. These gov. representatives represent me, and if they make a claim otherwise, the burden of proof is on them
@@AllNighterHeider east bay. My other option is to rent my place out and travel a bit to check out other states. Not desperate but def motivated to leave Ca
A very interesting time to be in real estate. Still, with all that macro econ going on, as REI's we just need the next property. Dont let this stuff stop you or slow you down. Look for ways to use it to your advantage, and get out there and make deals happen, they are all around us!!👍
Can a 5% money market provide you with depreciation tax deductions, on-paper appreciation and cash flow? Rental property provides far more economic benefits beyond simply a 5%+ return
@@freedom_mentor yea you're right .. but it's appreciated alot..and the taxes are so high... im only making $700 net. (after taxes and insurance)... And it's now worth $135,000 I paid $50,000 for it in 2019. I was thinking it's a good time to get rid of it.?
Phil I love your videos and have been watching them for years! Just bought my first investment. I give you a lot of the credit to giving me the courage to do so! ❤
Here is the fox move. In 5 years there has been at the least 15 apartment complexes have been built or being built in my city. Soooo what happens when to many apartments
Forclosures, what a misdirection!!! Im in the foreclosure biz and a 2X, 3X, or 5X increase in foreclosure numbers doesnt mean much when the numbers go from 2-10. Wow, an increase of 8 can be a 5X increase in foreclosures. I love the pragmatism, thanks Phil Side note, we would love to see you and Michael Zuber from One Rental at a Time collaborate. He too is pragmatic and has extensive experience in RE. Whenever you get some of that "extra time" 😂 I can fascilitate that. Thanks again Phil!!!
@AllNightHeider, I 2nd that suggestion. Phil is great! I have been watching his videos for years. I'm so glad he is back posting videos again. Love that he is in North FL, and he knows my market.
@AllNighterHeider He is so knowledgeable, and I have been following him for so many years way before I found out about you guys. His story is very inspirational. He is in my neighborhood, so I am always looking forward to watching his posting because he knows my market.
I would have to disagree with you on the inventory and building. I’m in central Florida and they are still clearing land and building new builds. We don’t have a lack on inventory here
Oh yes we do! The demand for houses throughout just about every part of Central Florida is much bigger than the supply. A terrific tool that I use is www.sunstats.com. You have to be a Florida Realtor to get access to it but it gives you instant access to great insight. For example, the Orlando MSA has an inventory level of 2.3 months! That's MUCH lower than a normal market of 6 months. The average sale amount is up 6.8% in the past 12 months and the median sale price is up 2.1%. It's impossible for houses to be appreciating when rates have climbed to 23 year highs during that time without more demand than supply. I personally focus in the Daytona MSA area and it's up just a little over the past 12 months but certain pockets are in much more demand than others.
I work in Volusia and Seminole counties and I drive a lot for my job. I see a lot of houses for sale and I was in Seminole county today on Celery Ave in Sanford. I saw 3 new plots of land cleared for housing. Orange city has two new plots cleared and Debary has one. Now there is no “affordable housing” but there is plenty of housing.
@@freedom_mentoralso what happens when rates stay high because they are heck there may be another hike before end of year jolts report came out hotter than expected today. So when they get these houses built @ $350k a piece with an 8% interest rate who can afford that? They will sit
Recall the Hedgehog Concept: Low Inventory. It solves every problem, even higher interest rates. There are some people that can afford an 8% interest rate on a $350,000 home. And there are others that are paying cash. @@JS_1985
I used to live in Seminole county before the pandemic. Business pursuits brought me to Jacksonville. I stayed up in Jax for a while and every time I drive down to Orlando to see my parents it's amazing how after all the i4 construction there is just too much traffic from more and more people moving in. I have firsthand knowledge like Phil does that inventory is still limited in that area, despite my anecdote. The opportunity in real estate is still abundant wherever you are if you know how to take advantage of it. I'm still working on that but I've learned a TON from Phil! If I keep at it I'll win.
Hi, great video as usual. Adjustable rate mortgage and government incentives... UK here. We had it during 2020/2021 , for every 4 houses sold , 1 of them has got government incentives ( help to buy called here ) and an adjustable rate mortgage attached... That means, in 5 years time : 1) your mortgage will adjust from 1,5% to 6% 2) your government incentives ( 20% of value price ( so it adjusts itself at higher value ) start to be repaid... We are talking about raising your cost of thousands of pounds per month... 2025/2026 will see a crash
Great analysis! How to increase the inventory? Regulations on building may be lifted if young people get enough representation in the govt. or take it to streets and force the issue if it gets bad enough. But for now young people just suck it up and live with their parents.
What I have witnessed over the past 25 years as an adult is that after well intention-ed "outsiders" get elected, once they arrive in office, are quickly brainwashed / persuaded into becoming typical bureaucrats and they too join the rest of their fellow politicians in an effort to add more laws to fix problems that can only be solved by less laws; be it at a local, state or federal level. Even if a bunch of young people are elected, they too will turn into lawmakers, as opposed to opportunity creators.
@@freedom_mentor That would be "The Systems Neatest Trick" Coined by the late Uncle Ted K. The system is self sustaining and does not tolerate deviation.
A rise in unemployment will cause additional foreclosures and increase inventory. Businesses will have to downsize due to higher interest rates, increased operating costs from inflation and reduced consumer spending.
Great thought! A drastic increase in unemployment would impact inventory levels. But how is that going to happen? It seems just about every company (big and small) is struggling to hire enough staff to keep up. Why else would labor unions be going on strike right now and winning their high demands? They know they can win because they know companies like UPS have no choice.
@@freedom_mentor a whole economy collapse. Not sure when and I'm not sure how. But it's a string of a lot of things combined and not just the housing market. Came here after "Rich Men of Richmond," by Oliver Anthony so I'm guessing I'm still on the doom and gloom feeling and hopefully if won't happen.
Sorry to hear that. Appraisers have cost me a fortune over the years due to their ignorance. This is my de facto video on appraisals/appraisers: ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-ry3AlX5e4bg.html
They won't be lots of foreclosures like there was in 2008. The reason? Because last time there was aig who insured those house loans and and it was better for the banks to foreclose on you and collect on the insurance from AIG. I have proof of that because I had a property that I lost during that time. I owed a hundred eighty thousand dollars on the home. The bank foreclosed on me and collected $206,000 from AIG. And then they were able to also sell the property for $80,000 to someone else. I totally got screwed but it was my fault because I believe the lies of the media at that time. So banks have no choice but to work with homeowners now. That's the only way they may make some money. This time around there is no cash cow from the government bailing out AIG.
All the best zip codes have been discovered, bought up, then u have Amazon, Buffett buying up everything. Even inland properties which are sure to burn up during a bad wildfire season are selling for millions. If u missed the boat, your done
What do you mean, "if u missed the boat, your done"? Are you referring to how unaffordable houses are now and how they are not going to be dropping in price so either you make a bunch of money or learn creative real estate or you'll never be able to buy a home? Because if that is what you're saying, it's hard to argue with that. Interest rates will probably remain high for a long time and I don't see how housing prices will reduce, nor inventory increase so becoming a homeowner is much tougher than ever before.
In CA, U ain't gonna live in San Diego, Santa Monica, like me, Venice Beach , Malibu, Laguna beach, OC, etc... unless you got equity, cash, property to sell, trade off etc... Its over, Hottest market ever. I would love a big dip, Have some cash, but I doubt it. Stuck in Santa Monica I guess, not to bad, but I would have loved SD. Folks are angry, They can't even rent or park in these cities unless they are wealthy. Folks calling for socialism. Librals and greedy corporation are working in cahoots, Libs want more affordable housing, greedies want to put up big buildings and push out smaller landlords so they can take properties away ,, @@freedom_mentor
