Why Mathematicians Won't Help Cops

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Algorithms are so amazing at predicting what you want that ads will be perfectly tailored to your interests and displayed to you just minutes after a complex system has basically mapped your mind. If that’s so easy, why can’t police predict crimes? A few companies claim they can -- but the truth is a lot more complex.
A decade ago, predictive policing algorithms were hailed as one of the most important inventions of our era. In just a few short years, thousands of mathematicians had publicly refused to work on predictive policing projects. What started a century ago in the concentric zone model of mapping urban areas and evolved into social disorganization theory has culminated in sophisticated algorithms that claim to pinpoint the place and type of crime well in advance.
The problem, though, is that algorithmic outcomes are only as good as the data going into them. Between flawed data collection/reporting, yet another black box algorithm, and a total inability to measure results effectively, the promise of predictive policing has come under scrutiny -- and the real question is how long we keep experimenting to get it right, and who we run those experiments on.
** ADDITIONAL READING **
“Precise Event-level Prediction of Urban Crime Reveals Signature of Enforcement Bias”: www.researchga...
Letter, “Boycott Collaboration with Police”: www.math-boyco...
PredPol’s Predictive Policing Algorithm: www.predpol.co...
“Predictive Policing Software Is More Accurate at Predicting Policing Than Predicting Crime,” Ezekiel Edwards: www.aclu.org/n...
Chicago’s Strategic Subject List Dataset: data.cityofchi...
“What Can FBI Data Say About Crime in 2021? It’s Too Unreliable to Tell,” Weihua Li, The Marhsall Project: www.themarshal...
"Abraham Wald's work on aircraft survivability". Mangel and Samaniego. June 198, Journal of the American Statistical Association. 79 (386): 259-267: people.ucsc.ed...
“LAPD data programs need better oversight to protect public, Inspector General concludes”: www.latimes.co...
“UCLA Study Proves Predictive Policing Successful in Reducing Crime Over Several Months of Deployment with The LAPD”: www.predpol.co...
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Talk Vsauce2 in The Create Unknown Discord: / discord
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Hosted and Produced by Kevin Lieber
Instagram: / kevlieber
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Podcast: / thecreateunknown
Research and Writing by Matthew Tabor
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Editing by John Swan
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Huge Thanks To Paula Lieber
www.etsy.com/s...
Vsauce's Curiosity Box: www.curiosityb...
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27 сен 2024

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Комментарии : 1,6 тыс.

@the_mad_fool 2 года назад

So we actually invented Minority Report, but the people who invented it said "no" and refused to keep developing it. That's actually weirdly reassuring.

@SmallSpoonBrigade 2 года назад

The good news of sorts is that since the police departments are allowed to refuse to hire cops that are too smart, the likelihood of them managing it on their own is rather weak. I think this was probably going to wind up being used as justification to continue targeting people in poorer neighborhoods that lack access to properly funded legal defense funds.

@isaacgeorge7773 2 года назад

Yeah, but on the downside we totally did build the racist police robots in the first place, and because they target poor people in urban areas, more felony arrests result, meaning fewer blue voters, meaning more racist politicians, meaning more invested into the racist robots we already built. The only way to fix this process is to start divesting from police entirely

@-astrangerontheinternet6687 2 года назад

@@isaacgeorge7773 yeah That’s what happened…

@gabrielsenator6347 2 года назад

@@isaacgeorge7773 sooo...there's blue politicians and racist ones? That doesn't sound like a bigot at all...Definitely not...

@xanthra592 2 года назад

@@maskettaman1488 Crime is based on proximity and opportunity not race. Choose your words wisely, its not that hard.

@cheeseisgreat24 2 года назад

One of my favorite things about crime is that almost everyone is doing something that’s *technically* illegal during their day-to-day life. Therefore the likelihood of crime is almost guaranteed to be 100% everywhere. Put a cop there who wants to enforce a specific law and they will find someone committing it.

@kiranaun9593 2 года назад

@@ody5199 No. The studies are.

@megan_alnico 2 года назад

@@ody5199 do you know where the term jaywalking came from? It used to be that roads were for everybody, bikes, pedestrians, horse-drawn carriages. When automobiles were invented only the rich could really afford them. These people would go to a pub, drink heavily and then drive their cars very. Many times people died, because of course they did, drinking and driving is dangerous. Lots of people called for banning these "metal monstrosities". And so the budding automobile industry worked to make a law that said "streets are for cars". They gave this law the name "jaywalking" because a "Jay" was a slur used against people native to rural mountainous areas. It was basically like every other racial slur you can think of. And they got it coded into law. They got a slur to be the name of a law. This is another type of enforcement bias. Because it is enforceable you believe that it's wrong. When, jaywalking was just a disinformation campaign by a bunch of rich people who wanted to sell cars. There's a great episode of "Adam Ruins Everything" that has sources for all this information. This shouldn't even have been a crime in the first place.

@megan_alnico 2 года назад

@@ody5199 to be fair, nobody in the US knows where the term jaywalking came from either.

@cheeseisgreat24 2 года назад

@@ody5199 nope, it’s just how these models are made, **they** compare jaywalking to murder using them.

@harrylane4 2 года назад

@@ody5199 considering both can get you shot if you’re the wrong color, I think it’s apt

@penderrin1637 2 года назад

The whole plane analogy reminds me of how the US moved to steel helmets in WW2 and saw a drastic increase in head injuries compared to WW1, what this really meant was that the helmets were working, leaving more people injured instead of dead

@88porpoise 9 месяцев назад

First, you are really confusing that story. Second, the story was almost certainly not true. The story is that the British identified an increase in head wounds when they started issuing steel helmets to soldiers in WWI and initially generals wanted to withdraw the helmets because of the increased wounds until someone pointed out the reduced deaths. The US doesn't make sense as they only joined the war after steel helmets were the norm and troops were provided them by the French and British before serving at the front. From what I looked up before, the earliest known reference to this story is using it as a hypothetical example of such effects, not saying that it was real and there isn't any evidence shown that it really happened (and they meticulously recorded most of this type of stuff). And while on the face of it it seems logical that there would be a significant increase in head wounds, that isn't necessarily the case. Yes, steel helmets would reduce some fatal head injuries to head wounds, but they would also reduce some head wounds to nothing worth noting. I don't know whether there would be a net increase or decrease in head wounds, but it isn't necessary that it would be and if it is an increase it may not be that large.

@Namminamm 8 месяцев назад

I believe it was the British and not the Americans who first used steel helmets in WW1 and almost decided to stop using them due to the increase in head injuries.

@88porpoise 8 месяцев назад

@@Namminamm Technically the French were the first to adopt a steel helmet. They first had a stopgap head protection deployed in early 1915 with the Adrian helmet entering combat in July 1915 while the Brodie was issued in September 1915. The Germans wouldn't issue their helmets until early 1916. But all three were developing helmets simultaneously as the need was pretty obvious and the concept of a helmet was well known. And the development time kind of shows. The French Adrian helmet had serious issues, both in design and the materials used. The British Brodie helmet was the easiest to mass produce and arguably the best for trench warfare. But there is a reason that most future helmets resemble the Stahlhelm more than the other two. It was clearly the best overall helmet design and far more ergonomic than the Brodie when not standing in a trench.

@BobtheRedead 8 месяцев назад

@@88porpoiseThe French infamously wore cloth caps and brightly colored pants at the beginning of WWI, leading to massive initial casualties because they were completely unprepared for German artillery.

@88porpoise 8 месяцев назад

@@BobtheRedead The only major army that didn't primarily wear cloth hats in 1914 were the Germans, who wore leather helmets which weren't any more useful than the cloth caps in WWI. The French were the first to do something about it.

@rossjennings4755 2 года назад

I love how they "publish the algorithm on their website" and it's just an equation with no terms defined. It's clear their intended audience there does not include anyone who knows what they're talking about.

@doktormcnasty 2 года назад

if it's patented as they claim then it should be possible to look up the patent to get more information on the algorithm. I'm surprised that didn't get addressed in this clip.

@AubreyBarnard 2 года назад

Also, an equation is not an algorithm, right?!

@schwig44 2 года назад

@@AubreyBarnard in a way, it is. An algorithm is simply a set of instructions. When you think about what an equation is, especially where one side is a single term, it's a set of instructions on how to arrive at the quantity described on a given side. As for the undefined terms, that's not really an issue either. You can look at the orders of terms and the relationships between them to determine what kind of curve the results produce. That can be helpful in its own right.

@taodivinity1556 2 года назад

The equation has OwO at the end, I doubt it is even real.

@jonathanodude6660 2 года назад

@@taodivinity1556 that is funny, but i think it was theta omega sigma. theta is commonly used as a variable and the omega is sometimes used as a coefficient or constant. dunno about the sigma though.

@porgy29 2 года назад

I do like the part where they identify that crime often happens due to a combination of environmental and sociological factors instead of completely rational actions by individuals and then rather than trying to address those factors (through changing policies, economics, social work and other non-police support) they just circle it on a map and say "that is where the crime will be."

@bvoyelr 2 года назад

Who said they don't? This video was in relation to policing, and those involved in the policing aspect wouldn't necessarily know or care how else these systems are being used by other wings of government.

@loturzelrestaurant 2 года назад

@@bvoyelr What Cops need is to be Defunded and Debundeled. But HOW can we ever fix the System if most people refuse to even learn how to grasp the phrase Defund the police??! Without the thought-provoking 'Defining Defund the Police'-Video of "Some More News", how can we help?

@SmallSpoonBrigade 2 года назад

Yes, it's been known for decades that there are factors that can be addressed that would lead to a reduction in crime. Much of it involves making it harder for criminals to lurk and increase the likelihood of neighbors to be willing to narc on criminals they see. Compton ultimately cleaned up a bunch when the community stopped tolerating the criminal behavior. Cutting back bushes, improving lighting, removing blighted houses that can't be sold and keeping the height of buildings below a threshold would all reduce crime more than what this proposal would do and without needing to deploy police to potentially harass locals that may not have anything to do with crime in the first place.

@stevedaguy9639 2 года назад

@@bvoyelr reality did lmao. They’d rather have a generation in chains than a functioning society

@tomasbeltran04050 2 года назад

@@SmallSpoonBrigade why height of buildings tho?

@godminnette2 2 года назад

ReplyAll (RIP) has a great piece on COMPSTAT, the predictive policing system used by NYC and many other NA cities. It's called the Crime Machine, and I highly recommend it. Last I heard, like a dozen cops were suing the NYPD for their use of COMPSTAT, as they basically had soft quotas to issue a certain number of summonses (minor tickets) each day in specific areas, which then made those areas look more high-risk, which meant they were flagged as areas to return to, etc. These models not predicting crime, but predicting policing, is a wonderfully succinct way of putting it.

@mickeymickey9914 2 года назад

No. No it won't. The police can hang around my neighborhood all day long and they won't catch any яápes because they don't magically make crime happen. This rhetoric clearly does not hold true for predictive policing of VIOLENT crime.

@cherilynnfisher5658 2 года назад

The cart driving the horse. . . The tail wagging the dog.

@xponen 2 года назад

I'm confident the mathematicians who do work on such systems knew about such feedback-loop and filter the input-data appropriately. Why wouldn't they know about this often repeated concept?

@bvoyelr 2 года назад

What gets me is that this isn't a flaw in the modeling, it's a flaw in the NYPD. This software isn't forcing them to have quotas -- they had quotas before the software and they'll have them afterwards. Thus, the answer isn't to throw out the software, it's to throw out the quotas and those imposing them.

@Jabarri74 2 года назад

@@bvoyelr I don't get why anyone should a quota for things such as this. What if all you met were the most pleasant people on earth all day and you get reprimanded for it?

@sandwiched 2 года назад

Even _if_ the premise of predictive crime prevention didn't lead to increased arrests and thus an artificial & inaccurate amplification of its own data, it could not be a sustainably accurate system: it relies on big data that "it" (ok, the police, whatever) then tries to suppress! In other words, if it were 100% accurate and led to a true and just prevention of all crimes, well, there goes the entire dataset upon which its model relies. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Sure, you could continue to use historical data, but it's a near-certainty that that would become more and more inaccurate as time went on and criminals adapted to the new patterns.

@AubreyBarnard 2 года назад

Dynamic causal models -- models that can handle feedback loops and adapt to changing distributions of data over time -- are the types of models that could hope to (in principle) address the data problem you mention. They would address it by modeling interventions (policing, in this case) and how they affect the system. But, of course, those interventions need to be properly modeled (takes experts, time, and effort), the models need to be trained on good data (apparently doesn't exist in the USA), they need to be interpreted correctly by experts who understand them, etc. It seems that the potential for crime in a particular area would have to be modeled as an unmeasureable (latent) variable, but latent variables make querying and training harder, so I suspect many "predictive policing" systems avoid using latent variables, and therefore such systems can't really model criminal potential but only policing (as the video mentions). Crime disappearing under the correct and just use of an accurate model would not ruin future data. One would continue to collect data on various factors that affect crime, like socioeconomic indicators, prevention efforts, etc., and one would still collect data on various effects of crime, like where police noticed no crime, where people reported no crime, etc. Since criminal potential is unmeasureable anyway, it wouldn't be collected as part of the data. But the upstream and downstream effects of crime would be measured, and they would "sandwich" the criminal potential, allowing people to monitor that potential and adjust if anything changes. For more on this sort of causal modeling, take a look at the work of Suchi Saria.

@hungrymusicwolf 2 года назад

@@AubreyBarnard It sounds beautiful, but in practice it is utopian thinking. As long as we don't have some objective and perfect data gathering biases will always be included in the data set, as long as biases are included the results will be more biased, as the results are more biased the data set becomes more biased. The core of this issue is that policing is an imperfect institution. Any algorithm/system that wants to use results from police enforcement will need to either use a different source for gathering data, or, either use more effective correction methods in the institution of policing or integrate the model with a correction facility focused on finding mistakes within the interaction between the algorithm/system and policing in order to prevent escalating degradation in its integrity.

@carsonhunt4642 2 года назад

Not the case at all. One simple algorithm like this is dumb though. The ai algorithms google has are where things get more scary. They predict/know what you’re going to do before you even know yourself. Ironically, these same algos can predict crime too… we just pretend it doesn’t exist yet. It’s like when you let your own troops walk into an ambush instead of letting the enemy know you know all their moves…

@KaiHenningsen 2 года назад

@@hungrymusicwolf It might work *_if_* (big if) we had an algorithm that would automatically "unbias" its data over time. I have no idea if such is even feasible, but that's necessary if you start from biased data (which is obviously all that's available). That's what, more generically, we invented science for - improve, over time, on what us fallible humans can come up with. And we've found that science isn't equally good at every subject and that people will keep gaming the system. Which doesn't fill me with hope for such an algorithm until artificial intelligence becomes at least as intelligent as cops. Which is a long time in the future, it seems.

@the_mad_fool 2 года назад

@@KaiHenningsen It's not feasible because AI is made by people and people are biased, usually unconsciously. You can't unbiased something unless you can agree what unbiased looks like, which is fundamentally ruled out by the Human condition.

@Freiya- 2 года назад

The phrase, "show me a man, I'll show you a crime" stands out.

@gredangeo 2 года назад

This just shows that the police would in fact really use a 'Pre-Crime' unit from Minority Report, if given the chance.

@Goldy01 2 года назад

Well in theory it sounds like a wonderful concept. Some people just actually tried to make it work, but it won't.

@didles123 2 года назад

No it doesn't. Patrolling an area to reduce crime is not what pre-crime was. Pre-crime was about punishing people for a crime they were about to commit. Patrolling a neighborhood is not a punishment.

@gredangeo 2 года назад

@@didles123 The police is still trying to find crime before it occurs still. Which means, if they had access to an actual device to find people guilty before it starts, they would call it a success. Imagine fitting the profile of a would-be thief, and be in the wrong place at the wrong time, and gettin' arrested for it, simply because some algorithm told the cops to circle the area a bunch of times because some similar looking street the next town over had a previous statistic. And since cops are cops, they be sketchy and trigger happy and pull you in for questioning, because they're fearing the worse.

@CarrotConsumer 2 года назад

@@didles123 Yeah, it's just a fancy way to make a patrol route. I mean, they have to patrol *somewhere* anyway so they might as well patrol areas where there might be crime.

@SmallSpoonBrigade 2 года назад

That's because it's easier than having to do their jobs. The main reason why crimes are solved is because criminals are dumb. Smart criminals wind up in the corner office committing more acceptable crimes.

@boink666 2 года назад

CUrrent Justice system: Innocent until PROVEN guilty Predictive policing: Everyone is guilty before being proved innocent I know which one the Private For-Profit Prison System is gonna back. Hint: It's also the one that's the WORST for society and confidence in the justice system.

@lefterisvatsithianos6755 2 года назад

Don't tell me you have private in the US.

@rompevuevitos222 2 года назад

Even if it was 100% accurate it would be awful. Anyone watched psycho pass? It is literally about this

@godminnette2 2 года назад

@@tf5pZ9H5vcAdBp Except that decades of trying this has shown that the perverse incentives makes the entire system far worse. COMPSTAT in NYC and other cities makes cops patrol where cops have patrolled before, because due to soft quotas, arrests and summonses happen in the areas where the cops are, so of course those are going to be the data points entered into the system, and it's where police are going to continue being sent, even if crime moves elsewhere. Do some research. There are cops suing the NYPD over this right now because they realized they were just visiting these areas where crime wasn't happening to write summonses for people doing nothing wrong, while being told not to enter certain crimes into the database because it might harm property values in an area.

@kitsunekaze93 2 года назад

Current justice system: Innocent until evidence hints at possible guilt and no evidence for innocence is found.

@snintendog 2 года назад

@@tf5pZ9H5vcAdBp your right your just a rich elite sock puppet

@JonathanMandrake 2 года назад

As a mathematician I have to say that Predictive Policing, similar to AIs and other probabilistic algorithms, can only be the start. If it were to be used, it would require strict laws with clear oversight to ensure that this algorithm is used only as a hint of what could be worth looking into. In a state like the US, this would be impossible for many reasons, and even if mathematicians were working with specific states where it could work with laws already in place that are strict enough, they can't be sure that those laws are actually applied as they are written.

@anonymeister123 2 года назад

We're too woke now. We're not even at a point anymore where we can assume someone's gender based on physical and biological attributes lol

@softgender 2 года назад

@@anonymeister123 No one anywhere said anything about gender until you did.

@ComeInToMadness 2 года назад

@@softgender The video already implied things about criminal race and gender. Just blind if you didnt get it imo

@Parad8n 2 года назад

@@anonymeister123 Is this some weird roundabout way to suggest that racial profiling is actually a positive thing?

@anonymeister123 2 года назад

@@Parad8n no it's a roundabout way of saying society no longer allows certain valid and relevant datapoints, because of emotions

@nokillnina 2 года назад

Thank you Kevin - this video actually helped me to present analytics data which had "bad data" so that ... well, let's say: you helped me to explain a mathematical problem without using math language

@adamplace1414 2 года назад

It's kind of the problem with sociology broadly: using data to draw generalized conclusions about individualized behaviors. Addressing the larger problems can have limited benefits, but doing only that - taking the sociology as gospel - causes plenty of problems of its own.

@huckthatdish 2 года назад

Treating data about large scale problems as info on the large scale problems is quite useful. There are large scale society wide issues we need to address and big data is a useful tool in tackling those problems. So id say the benefits are more than limited. But I fully agree trying to apply it to an individual is absurd.

@AmberAmber 2 года назад

You're both right ‐ that's where Anthropology & Psychology swoop in to save the day ‐ with a twist of neuroscience! ♥️

@krissa9664 2 года назад

i feel like you forgot what sociology is.....

@runenorderhaug7646 2 года назад

To be fair even those guys focus a bit on the top level of interections a bit too much. As someone studying all of these despite their main field being biology, I actually expect that the next direction for many of these fields will be increased focus on more sub layer type of interections. We actually already kind of see this existing with like the ecological type ideas of development and similar

@loturzelrestaurant 2 года назад

@@huckthatdish What Cops need is to be Defunded and Debundeled. But HOW can we ever fix the System if most people refuse to even learn how to grasp the phrase Defund the police??! Without the thought-provoking 'Defining Defund the Police'-Video of "Some More News", how can we help?

@cdprince768 2 года назад

Put 75% of police in certain neighborhoods and you will magically discover that 75% of crimes happen in those neighborhoods.

@soonahero 2 года назад

Well no, because crime isn’t evenly distributed. The same Cops can have different arrest rates in different location

@Gandhi_Physique 2 года назад

I don't think that is true. Maybe for traffic violations, but not shootings, murders, and other similar crimes. People in a suburb aren't suddenly going to be getting arrested for those types of crimes because more cops are there lol.

@nairsheasterling9457 2 года назад

@@Gandhi_Physique They would for drug use, still an overwhelming source of arrests.

@Gandhi_Physique 2 года назад

@@nairsheasterling9457 That is like the traffic violation, expert mode. That is likely true though. I mostly meant violent crime wouldn't suddenly be more prevalent just because cops are in the suburb. Won't get too much into drug stuff, but yeah a certain drug not being legal is some bs.

@SmallSpoonBrigade 2 года назад

That's one of the big dangers. Since we already have so many police in certain areas, there's going to be that much more data on those areas. Minor crimes might not be noticed at all in better off areas and what about when a body is dumped? How would they know where the crime actually occurred until after it was solved and probably used for further analytics?

@name-yn6vu 2 года назад

An AI should not harm a human, by action or inaction, is probably the best way to answer that final question

@nikkiofthevalley 2 года назад

Then you have the classic Trolley Problem in its many forms.

@elPetete 2 года назад

Love how the recent videos have been about crime in relation to math. Keep em coming!!

@gayidek 2 года назад

@ToxiqSna-iQ skill issue

@Plasmabro 2 года назад

@ToxiqSna-iQ L bozo

@zed17317 2 года назад

To answer the question at the end of the video, my first thought was "No, I would not want to be part of an experiment like that." but then another, more intrusive thought popped in my mind. "Even if I was part of it, I would not want to know it." and I have two reasons for that. One, it makes me paranoid in a sense, and two, if I knew it, that may skew the data, and ruin the experiment. Huh. Wouldn't want it to be in vain I guess.

@Tyler-yy5ds 2 года назад

For what it's worth, the quote about not finding PredPol effective was from the Palo Alto PD, which is about 400 miles north of the LAPD's jurisdiction. The larger article is regarding the LAPD but not that quote.

@Dang3rMouSe 2 года назад

Here's the thing, this is actively being used by many law enforcement agencies. A lifelong friend of mine works for a large wealthy US county PD who's sole job is a specialization in predictive policing for repeat offences, open cases & potential crimes. Their techniques are suprisingly accurate. I don't know if they use the same methods but data driven & algorithmic crime prevention has continued to evolve & have advanced when being combined with open source social media data points My issues are both the potential issues described here & the violations on personal privacy. Preventing self fullfilling prophecies should be paramount.

@eldermoose7938 2 года назад

this sorta remines me of the decision of a bunch of realty firms to remove neighborhood crime statistics from their platforms, because they noticed that they became a feedback loop of depressing property values in those areas.

@danhoffman9232 2 года назад

There is a county in Florida that uses this system. The results are pretty much as described. People who have never commited a crime being harassed in their homes all times of day and night. Then filing charges against them that get dropped. Code inforcement violations suposudely postted on peoples doors that missing court date will cause them to be arrested.

@_g3nss 2 года назад

great video, and tbh we encounter these dilemas of “being manipulated for a greater good” everyday. It literally reminds me to my country couple days ago that we were passing through a constitutional change, and that had a lot of bias from everywhere, approving or rejecting the new proposed constitution. and everyone was aware of this process to take accountability on their own countries

@asysjr 2 года назад

By the way, congrats in reject that horrible far left constitution in Chile, you dodge a big bullet

@thesauceisme 2 года назад

@@asysjr lol what

@asysjr 2 года назад

@@joaovmlsilva3509 E quem diabos está colocando EUA nesse assunto? o atual presidente do chile mal chegou ao poder e já planejou uma constitução desastrosa para a economia do país, que segue os mesmos passos da Argentina. Levou puxão de orelha do excelentíssimo senhor ditador da Venezuela por não ter conseguido aprovar tal excelente constituição, e o Chile já está com previsão de recessão em sua economiza pela primeira em mais de 10 anos, graças aos planos dele anunciados para a economia causando evasão de investidores. Se aprovam aquela lástima de constituição, a dívida pública desse pais vai estourar pra niveis nunca antes visto, e em poucas decadas, o Chile vai estar pagando uma fortuna em impostos para rolamento de juros de divida, tal como ocorre no BR, onde uns 40% da arrecardação vai para pagar rolamento de juros de divida publica criada por excesso de gastos de governo nos moldes exatos desse tipo de constituição que queriam para lá. Uma dica: se o seu politico ou partido tem apoio do governo da Venezuela, da Argentina ou Cuba, boa coisa daí não vai sair.

@_g3nss 2 года назад

@@asysjr do you understand that your response is complete biased right?

@asysjr 2 года назад

@@_g3nss ok, let's talk a little (in civilized way). Tell me: 1- are you from Chile? 2- What's you opinion about this constituion? It will be good for Chile economy? How your country plan to pay for the expenses without generat more public debt? 3- Did your president is no't alignated with the policies of Argentina and The governement of Venezuela? Are you aware of whats happening in Argentina after these policies was put in use? 4- Do you want tax in fortunes and more tax in general? How you country will make to mainten the investidors and industry / employment, while increase the tax? How to avoid division evasion, and the damage in the chain production, the same that is happening in Argentina now?

@penitentman7139 2 года назад

Thanks for these videos, Kevin. Thanks for giving people a reason to think before they act. Not nearly enough of that happening anymore

@Wtyandell Год назад

I cannot tell you how helpful this video was to writing my law review article on Predictive Policing. Really helped me get my start.

@paulamblard3836 2 года назад

the problem of math and "predictive" AI to help cops : it is useful to find tendency, but is not able to do prediction. The AI may predict that "there is a 0.7% probability that there will be a crime in a neighborhood on a certain day". Even if it is 40 time more than the average probability, it is not something very usefull. The AI will never be precise, and will not be able to say things like "there is 80% chance that there will be a crime here at this hour". (or it would not be a probabilistic predictive ia, but a spy AI, that found that a criminal will act) ( "find tendency" can be very useful, but it need to be well understand, and not over-interpreted.)

@SgtSupaman 2 года назад

Artificial Intelligence is abbreviated as AI, not IA. Once could be a typo, but, since you typed it wrong 4 times, I'm guessing you just didn't know.

@paulamblard3836 2 года назад

@@SgtSupaman (i know, i just used by mistake the french version : IA is : Intelligence Artificiel i corrected.)

@chri-k 2 года назад

@@paulamblard3836 the downside of bilinguality

@Goldy01 2 года назад

@@chri-k just the downside of french tbh lmao

@chri-k 2 года назад

@@Goldy01 ( this is the second time i post this, the first got deleted because RU-vid ) The russian acronym combines the best of both: ИИ ( “II” )

@canis2020 2 года назад

1500 mathematicians really isn't that big of a sample size. I mean just hiring someone for a sales position has thousands of people either looking at it and not getting involved because they choose not to for whatever reason.

@proloycodes 2 года назад

mathematicians aren't sales people.

@huntertausch1909 2 года назад

I think you made a great point about predicting policing, as opposed to crime. One would only be predicting where most of the arrests/known crimes occur. This doesn't take into account the likely large amount of crimes that go undetected in areas which are probably more likely to have a crime happen due to the lack of policing done there. Very interested

@05Matz 2 года назад

So if the police already over-hassle or more aggressively charge people in neighborhood/demographic A (so they get more arrests/reports/charges per actual crime regardless of the actual crime level), and under-police neighborhood/demographic B (meaning much of the actual crime going on isn't reflected in the data), they'd end up with recommendations to divert resources away FROM B and throw them at A from a predictive system. Any biases in policing or reporting that made their way into the data (even old data, if old data is used) would be magnified the more predictive policing was used (feeding back into the patterns of new data coming in), but they'd be given the false appearance of 'impartiality', even to those carrying it out! ("It's not because I'm discriminating against you, it's because the Crime Index is high here!").

@huntertausch1909 2 года назад

Exactly

@xponen 2 года назад

@@05Matz mathematician can easily filter the data, eg: separate the report made by civilian vs the report made by patrolling deputy, therefore removing bias created by patrolling strategy. Why would we kept thinking these mathematician were incompetent when creating their algorithm?

@andrewharrison8436 Год назад

@@xponen There is also a bias in civilian reporting: "the cops won't turn up so why ring them" "the cops don't like so why call them" "I don't want to waste police time" "I'm busy, I will look the other way" The data is inherently biased in ways that would be hard to predict - I suppose we could do a controlled crime spree and see which of the known crime events ended on the database - I can't see any ethical problems with that.

@Youssii 2 года назад

So, in simple terms: You have three neighbourhoods with similar populations and real crime statistics, but one has had more police presence, who have recorded more of those crimes, while more have been missed in the other areas. You tell this to the algorithm, and it says crimes are likely soon in that area. To double the number of cops on the beat in that neighbourhood, you halve the number in the other two. The handful of cops left in the other two neighbourhoods have been told that crime is unlikely there. The large number in the third neighbourhood have been told to be extra vigilant. In each neighbourhood, there is a minor crime: a teenager shoplifts a bottle of alcohol. In the first two neighbourhoods, the shopkeepers know that there’s never much police response to a crime like that, and they grumble and write it off without reporting it, leaving it unregistered with the police. In the overpoliced area, a cop sees it happen, arrests and charges the kid, and inputs the data into the algorithm. The algorithm concludes that crime is indeed more likely in that area and tells the organisation to send even more cops. And that’s just to begin with. No one wants to move to an area that has crime so high there’s a cop on every corner. Businesses don’t want to open there, in case it’s not safe. A kid in that area ends up with a criminal record that follows them throughout their life, impacting the economic chances of people in the over policed area, which probably does raise crime there relative to the other two. They’re now worse off with more crime directly due to excessive policing.

@mickeymickey9914 2 года назад

Haha. Businesses aren't closing because of statistics they're closing because of reality.

@Youssii 2 года назад

@@mickeymickey9914 Right - but if you use statistics to make decisions in the real world, then the quality of those stats is actually going to have a real effect. We live in the era of big data.

@mickeymickey9914 2 года назад

@@Youssii Not really, because at the end of the day, they're patrolling. You have to commit a violent crime still. They're not making you commit crimes. Wh_te suburbia doesn't have as many m_rders as Detroit, there's no point in policing them equally.

@lightergreen 2 года назад

I love how he just jumps right in to WORLD WAR 2 AIRPLANES. LOL.

@IAmNumber4000 2 года назад

“PredPol” Welp… that’s a sinister name.

@Cman04092 2 года назад

Holy crap, I had to rewind the video during your sponsorship spot... I heard "If you wanna help vsauce2 end yourself" when you said "AND yourself". You had me worried for half a second there Kev.

@thebush6077 2 года назад

Wait a second wasn't this already a vid, maybe I'm thinking of something else, just vaguely remember a math/stats & policing vid somewhere

@Purpletrident 2 года назад

It would be so much easier to just...tackle the reason why crime happens to begin with rather than give cops even more power. We already know why crime happens and where it's more likely to happen: at poor communities where everyone is desperate to get by. Fight poverty and crime plummets. But it's beneficial to corporations and the government for people to be kept poor, and therefore uneducated, as it means they have more control. More policing is exactly what we don't need.

@darkandedgy1457 2 года назад

I'd say the data would've been nice for preventive measures ie beefing up patrols in a certain area which in should in turn deter crime but we know people like you don't actually want criminals caught. Go ahead and do you rant about how the police "oppress" poor people when in reality it's punishing poor people stealing from poor people in the same damn neighborhood

@Purpletrident 2 года назад

@@darkandedgy1457 Police already over police poor black neighborhoods which is why people like you blindly believe that black people commit most crime in the country. Cops will find any excuse to arrest a black person, and these "preventative measures" would only exaggerate it further. So let's be real, you don't want crime to go down, you just want to see poor people, especially black and brown people, targeted further by the police. No reason to beat around the bush, conservatives are very easy to read.

@ds43045 2 года назад

@@darkandedgy1457 the data is based on research that shows where the police are ALREADY CATCHING CRIMINALS. Did you pay attention to the video at all? Sending more police to the areas where they are already finding crime means: 1)they will likely find more crime, creating a feedback loop, 2)the unnoticed crime from underpolicing other areas continues to be unnoticed, creating the opposite effect. It was also clearly stated in the video how innacurate, incomplete and unreliable the starting data is. Garbage in, garbage out.

@ok8012 2 года назад

@@darkandedgy1457 so what? the solution is to just put more poor people in prison and not uplift anyone? and cops literally don't deter crime; if they did, then the us (which has the most overinflated police budgets globally by a significant margin) would have one of the lowest crime rates globally. but they don't. their purpose is solely to protect capital, issue citations, and to fill prisons with people that they can extract labor from.

@ntdscherer 2 года назад

Besides reducing crime, it would reduce teen pregnancy, high school dropout rates, illiteracy, homelessness...

@gwilson314 2 года назад

Give any random anon a demographic profile of an area and he'll give you a pretty good sense of the crime rate.

@beansworth5694 2 года назад

@Ferris Towner You're allowed to notice it. You're allowed to say it out loud; you're just not allowed to claim victimhood when people don't want to associate with someone that takes that data and decides to make an ambiguously racist statement. And nobody's really stopping you from doing that either, it'd just be rather unreasonable of you to expect people to want to hang around someone that has an ambiguously/blatantly worldview.

@anjunakrokus 2 года назад

7:15 So a quick look gives me the idea that this is essentially a heat equation with exponential decay and constant increase. That is: 1. dA/dt - eta*D/4 * (nabla^2 A) | This part states that A spreads out like a drop of ink in water. 2. B + theta*omega*delta - omega*A | This acts like a source, where for small A this is positive (and eq 1 is positive)+ and for large A this is negative (and eq 1 is negative). Assuming that A is the crime risk (because none of the parameters are explained). Problematically: 1. The model has a rest crime risk of A = (B + theta*omega*delta) / omega, which is a highly impactful assumption. 2. The model only works (due to the 3 assumptions at the start) with (small) repeating crimes. Because (near)-repeat victimization isn't necessarily true for personal crimes (for example non-serial murders). Also, local search is also a pretty huge assumption that might not always work (think serious crimes where the crime is relatively far apart from known locations to obscure the investigation. I'm also uncertain whether organized crime even follows these assumptions). 3. Some (or all) of the parameters (B, eta, D, omega, theta, delta) probably depend on factors dependent on the location, time, and crime (not to mention the personality of the criminal and victims themselves, other crimes AND police activity). Depending on how these parameters vary (in space and time) and how accurate they are tracked (averaged, updated daily, etc.) impacts the applicability of A. 4. Machine Learning itself is known to be problematic and raises significant concerns about the reliability of the results.

@maverick9708 2 года назад

11:24 it depends heavily on the type of crime, generally speaking you get MUCH better predictions with things like murder than you would something like petty theft

@Hack3r91 2 года назад

Precisely, because most of murder data is collected whereas for more petty crimes the set may be incomplete, glad someone pointed that out.

@victormy8897 2 года назад

There is an old Tom Cruise film about prediction of crimes.) "Minority report". It's shows this problem at another angle. Even, when you've got 100% accurate prediction it did not guarantee anything. First of all, it did not guarantee, that the afformentioned crime will be conducted.

@Deado 2 года назад

Everyone loves new Vsauce, it truly does make all our days better

@Wendy_O._Koopa 2 года назад

It's kinda like that episode of Avatar where Sokka tries to explain self-fulfilling prophecies to the guy who told him "[Aunt Wu] said I'd meet my true love wearing red slippers." *Sokka* [slyly]: "Uh-huh. And how many times have you worn those shoes since you got that fortune?" *Villager:* "Every day." *Sokka* [angrily]: "THEN _OF COURSE_ IT'S GONNA COME TRUE!" *Villager* [excitedly]: "Really?! You think so?! I'm so excited!"

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@petershoup5584 2 года назад

Really enjoying this series man, nice work

@BlankBrain 2 года назад

Can you imagine what it would be like if police had to act ethically?

@patrickrunyan4410 2 года назад

I can: body cams.

@grn1 2 года назад

@@patrickrunyan4410 Oops I guess I forgot to turn it on or oops I guess it didn't charge properly. Obviously BS excuses but ones that have certainly been used. Body cams certainly help but they can't stop every type type of abuse (especially if the judge for a given case is already predisposed to siding with the police).

@patrickrunyan4410 Год назад

@@grn1 Nirvana fallacy.

@jeffreypenis736 Год назад

@@patrickrunyan4410 doesn't apply because you asserted that body cams would make the police have to act ethically not just that they would be an improvement

@-First-Last Год назад

They will eliminate themselves.

@vspatmx7458 2 года назад

reminds me of " minority Report " the movie Loved it.

@spacecadet35 8 месяцев назад

Surely the indicator of success is not an increase in arrests, but a decrease in crime...

@ainzooalgown1364 2 года назад

More policing creates more crimes? I feel like there’s another factor at play here…

@blissfulrain 2 года назад

For profit prisons? The history and consequences of convict leasing? The racialization of crime? Sensationalist news reports? "Tough on Crime" political campaigns?

@jonc4403 8 месяцев назад

No. More policing creates more crimes. That's the factor.

@ainzooalgown1364 8 месяцев назад

Really? Because when a police officer is standing right next to me I feel even less incentivized to commit crimes. Maybe it's just my culture, idk. @@jonc4403

@watsonwrote 2 года назад

The best way to prevent crime before it happens is to ensure people have financial security, access to good employment, mental and physical health resources, and access to good education. If we can diminish the core causes of criminal behavior, we can actually prevent many crimes. Of course, that requires fixing system problems instead of keeping our system exactly as-is and looking for bandaids...

@artofescapism 8 месяцев назад

Interesting video! We studied this in one of my graduate classes, and, to oversimplify, it fits along the same lines as 'broken windows' policing. Which is to say, it doesn't really matter how accurate or inaccurate the underlying concept is, the application always leads to worse outcomes in practice.

@MetroAndroid 2 года назад

3:51 How are we determining whether someone is in a gang? I'm assuming they don't just come out and tell you (and of course most people will lie about this) and it's not like they have a list of every member, much of their connections aren't written down, they're familial, or organic and decentralized. You could also interpret from it that gangs have an outsized negative influence on people that aren't in gangs given that for every 1 gang member, six or seven non-gang members are involved in their crimes.

@vylbird8014 2 года назад

The police guess based on 'does he look like a gang member?' and manipulate the computer model to say yes.

@mickeymickey9914 2 года назад

They very often tell you they're in a gang. They wear gang clothes and flash gang signs.

@daniellin1726 2 года назад

And there might even be “dormant” members who while not necessary directly related to gang activity (ever is or intend to), are susceptible to quickly involve themselves/or force to be involved in gang activity when certain conditions are satisfied. This dormancy can be symptomatic within weeks or individuals may experience up-to years of non-activity. To this end, everyone of us, including grade school children, can be considered a dormant gang member.

@mickeymickey9914 2 года назад

@@daniellin1726 That's nonsense. The majority of gang members basically boast about it to everyone in sight.

@olo4704 2 года назад

@@daniellin1726 so if we have no way of proving they are in a gang does it then make any sense to trust and use an ai claiming to predict it when we can not verify the data?

@electropartycat 2 года назад

It might be more interesting if the predictive model was run on unsolved crimes only. If the criminal gets caught it’s not as big a problem compared to if the criminal gets away to commit additional crimes at a later date. Besides, if people really wanted to prevent crime we could instead invest in providing basic housing, food, education, and health care, but that would deprive the prison-industrial complex of a stream of cheap convict labor.

@rarra 2 года назад

I agree with most, but the last part of what you said. I don’t think there’s a system to keep people poor/commit crimes. It’s just that we as humans are still learning and make many mistakes in the process (e.g. focusing on punishing crimes rather than tackling the root causes such as poverty that you mentioned). Many people unfortunately get the wrong end of the stick in the process..

@ds43045 2 года назад

@@rarra I think watering it down to "still learning" is pretty nonsense. The US has more people in prison than the rest of the world combined and still has (by a huge margin) the highest gun violence while not having the highest gun ownership. This has likely been true for longer than you have been alive and yet nothing has seriously been done to change things. That isn't a mistake.

@rarra 2 года назад

@@ds43045 you may be right, but I don’t believe humans (or any creature) are evil for no reason. Even the ones that commit the most unthinkable crimes, do it for reasons such as intense fear. If everybody gets all their basic needs met, I can’t see how they would possibly knowingly commit a crime

@ProductBasement 2 года назад

Giving people -taxpayer's stuff- "free" stuff does not reduce crime. The places with the worst crime problems are housing projects. And don't tell me that people in housing projects need to be given more in order to survive without stealing. When we look at the looting that took place during the BLM riots or what's going on in cities where shoplifting under $250 is not prosecuted, we don't see people stealing bread and baby formula-we see people stealing booze, shoes, and video games

@ntdscherer 2 года назад

People like ProductBasement who replied to you would rather see the country spiral down the toilet than allow the government to give a helping hand to people they think don't deserve it.

@LittleKitsune85 2 года назад

It like predicting location of atom and vector at same time. It has use to fuel racial profiling.

@Blarnix 2 года назад

It’s almost like Minority Report meant something.

@itayvolk 2 года назад

7:49, the quote you are highlighting here isn't from the LAPD, it is from the Palo Alto police, who only used it for three years, just according to what the screenshot says around it

@Mutual_Information 2 года назад

As problematic as predictive policing is, it’s not going away. Its a cheap solution to policing a large area with limited resources, and that won’t be pass that up. Ultimately, we’ll need heavily monitored models. They already have similar ones (albeit not at all perfect) in the credit space.

@CRAgamer 2 года назад

Considering cops can't even handle current policing without letting that power go to their head. This would be abused to hell and back. doesn't matter how well intentioned, how monitored and regulated it starts off at. It will be abused and what ever limits were put in place will be slowly chipped away or straight up ignored.

@gorillaguerillaDK 2 года назад

It’s NOT a solution - this is why using it is so problematic!

@snintendog 2 года назад

Predictive policing doesn't work it an orobous

@luna010 2 года назад

It’s not a solution to policing, nor is policing a solution to crime. Preventing crime through actually looking into fixing the causes of crime is far more effective than punishing criminals. Predictive policing has not proven itself to be effective. Also, your proposal is very quickly approaching China’s social credit system.

@gorillaguerillaDK 2 года назад

@@luna010 True, just as having a high focus on rehabilitation rather than punishment is the most effective way to reduce recidivism rates. But as effective rehabilitation includes things like education, and requires access to effective healthcare and healthy nutrition, middle class Americans will not vote for it, because they fear that they then end up having all the poor people standing in long lines pleading to be imprisoned to get the things they can't get outside of prisons or the military - and who is then going to work all the below living wage jobs while their middle class kids goes to college and getting high student debts. A couple of decades ago, a large prison in the US had to shut down a very successful rehabilitation program - because people got angry that prisoners were getting well fed, got lots of exercise, and most important, easier access to higher education and a lot of assistance to get it - because people not in prison started having a harder and harder time getting access to it, because it was getting more and more expensive to get higher education. But instead of focusing on fixing the underlying issues to improve conditions for EVERYONE - they focused on shutting down one of the most effective prison programs regarding reducing recidivism rates! Currently USA is in the absolute top of all Western Countries when it comes to having high rates of recidivism! The country with the lowest rate is Norway! What do Norway do different than the US? If we ignore all the factors on the outside, such as access to universal healthcare and education, including tuition free higher education, a fairly strong social welfare system, living wages, parental leave, etc., and solely focus on what they do in their prison system - the differences truly stands out First of all, they treat the incarcerated like human beings - heck, even the far-right mass murder Anders Breivik who is considered so dangerous that they can't let him be part of a normal prison population and has very high restrictions on social activities with other inmates, has a three cell flat, and in 2016 won a case where he had demanded to get his old Playstation replaced with the newest version. But aside from letting dangerous terrorists play playstation - they are the country known for having the highest focus on rehabilitation. Spanning from education to therapy - and follow up by social workers after prison to ensure they don't become "forgotten" by the system..

@TarDeisa 2 года назад

The survivorship bias also counts towards complete criminal statistics. Even if an agency gives absolute complete data on their own findings, that isnt actually proof that it is complete. To make a reasonable predictive system like this, you can't work with exclusively positive data points, or exclusively negative ones. But police can not track crimes that almost happened. Or crimes that did happen, that were never reported. Basically any such system tracks where crimes did happen, and assumes that if there is no crime reported, that no crime happened. This means, police can never give a complete enough data set for a system like this to actually create any level of useful predictions. And then there is the magnification bias. Police will inevitably find more crimes where they tend to look. Creating an algorithm that uses the same data will also reinforce such biases. This is especially true for crimes that almost everyone does. Like drug possession and consumption. In any group of people you will have a large portion, if not a majority of people who consume and possess drugs on the regular. But if you only check in specific areas, then you create essentially a feedback loop, where you first have a spike in reported crime in an area, which leads to a bias to controll that area, which in turn reinforces the findings of increased criminal activity. So yea, there is just such an absolute lack of useful data, that a real predictive system would not be possible.

@GadgetGurusGlobal Год назад

Best channel in the past decade love your stuff thank you for continuing to make profoundly engaging content!

@getbonked1917 2 года назад

I think that in order to prevent crime we should have affordable housing and good social safty nets.

@SuperYoonHo 2 года назад

Love your new vid Kevin!!! But at first glance it really sounds crazy you know:)

@thejuggernautofspades9453 8 месяцев назад

"I knew your prediction is fake, BENDER WOULD NEVER SHARE BOOZE"

@AnErrantPhoton 2 года назад

I think a more palatable use of predictive policing is using prediction to identify people or areas that would produce people that would commit crime in the future if they didn't receive the resources and services they need to not make the decision to commit a crime, then providing those resources and services. Sort of like dealing with a potential problem while it's cheap and not waiting for it to become an expensive problem. The resources and services I'm talking about are things like infrastructure, health products and services, food and water, education, etc. I'm certain a city would rather spend 100 mil more on education than on more policing. One produces knock on economical benefits (and therefore, taxes), the other doesn't. Of course, trying to model that still runs into the same potential problems but maybe people would be more motivated to solve the problem if it was extremely beneficial for those most in need.

@mickeymickey9914 2 года назад

Chicago is one of the most over funded schools in the entire world. Doesn't work.

@IHRDI 8 месяцев назад

maybe if they used the “what makes a person most likely to commit crime” and “what makes a place a likely crime scene” to eliminate what makes criminals and crime scenes from the environment (e.g. homelessness, inability to get a job, hostile outside environment, high pollution levels, dark/unlit areas at night) then these algorithms are ok. but not as like “oh this persons gonna do crime, let’s arrest them now”. like bro there are several dystopian novels about that.

@keshavpujari8132 2 года назад

Literally the first time someone notices the police was there before they could do the crime will throw away the model...

@kitsunekaze93 2 года назад

maybe having it give its prediction, and compare it with data from normal policing ( not using the systems data ) and analyze its accuracy could be a way to improve it? but that might introduce more problems as it could reinforce current policing instead of bettering it. maybe math is not the right way to go with policing, at least never beyond adding an extra patrol through a neighbourhood

@rmsgrey 2 года назад

Or you could fund some actual research - get data on actual rather than reported crime and use that to feed the models rather than using an obvious feedback loop to generate garbage...

@Patrick.Howie. Год назад

Smart criminals could use similar methods to get better scores and minimize getting caught

@mochiman6307 2 года назад

As someone who did good grades in college algebra, it is a cursed skill, that comes at the cost of sleeping peaceful hours with nightmares of how to solve the problems.

@rompevuevitos222 2 года назад

Turns out training pattern addict monkey brain complex math is like giving a drug addict a comically sized syringe

@ILoveTinfoilHats 2 года назад

... this is the weirdest "flex" I've even seen in a RU-vid comment section

@poopymcskinkle7087 Год назад

Artificial Intelligence: Examples of Ethical Dillemas (UNESCO), "AI decisions are not always intelligible to humans. AI is not neutral: AI-based decisions are susceptible to inaccuracies, discriminatory outcomes, embedded or inserted bias. Surveillance practices for data gathering and privacy of court users."

@StarryCactus 2 года назад

1,500 based mathematicians

@AlbiDartanan 2 года назад

You know there was TV series : Numb3rs (2005 - 2009) where Mathematicians worked for FBI / police ....

@wakkowarner8810 2 года назад

Honesty doesn’t get clicks :p

@HappyTV18417 2 года назад

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@500ccRabbit 2 года назад

Crime analyst here. Your point about the Chicago police gang database is just wrong. First of all it is a tracking system for high risk to commit gang related activities, not a list of gang members. There are different levels of gang involvement and member is simply one type. You may be an associate, hang-around, prospect, or other non-member but somehow connected individual. Additionally, there are quasi-gang groups that may not fit the traditional definition of a gang, such as a tagging group. One can criticize their list for being too inclusive, but to claim that it is inaccurate overall is extremely misleading.

@haruhisuzumiya6650 2 года назад

Minority report

@kylecronin3379 7 месяцев назад

Yeah it's like the person that thinks you are only doing x thing because they tell you to do x thing and continue to tell you because they never thought you could do that thing by yourself

@SupaKoopaTroopa64 2 года назад

I mentioned feedback loops on the last crime prediction video, and I'm glad to here them discussed in this one! [I'm just gonna delete this paragraph, since it's not very relevant to my comment, and its poor wording lends itself to misinterpretation]

@AubreyBarnard 2 года назад

(1) I think it's quite a stretch to say that GPT-3 has an accurate model of the world, and (2) researchers like Suchi Saria are working on understanding feedback loops between models and human actions.

@SupaKoopaTroopa64 2 года назад

@@AubreyBarnard I'm just using GTP-3 as an example of how fast the world model component of artificial intelligence is progressing. Compared to a human, it isn't that great, but you can still get it to generate paragraphs on a wide range of subjects. It's reasonable to assume that future models will continue to improve, possibly to the point where they can use information about the world to achieve their goals more efficiently.

@mickeymickey9914 2 года назад

@SupaKoopaTroopa64 2 года назад

@@mickeymickey9914 The example I gave is just that: an example. I highly doubt that the specific scenario I mentioned would actually happen. I think real-world examples would probably be a lot more subtle (and, well, realistic). Also, I can see how my wording might imply that I think police deployment will just "make crime happen," but that's not what I mean. Sure, if the police were investigating YOU, they might not find anything, but if they were investigating people who already had a history of crime, or who are friends with criminals, they probably would. To be fair, this is what the system is SUPPOSE to do: find crime, but how can you tell the difference between normal functioning, and strategic deployment for malicious/misaligned purposes? We'll just have to hope and pray that AI never becomes intelligent enough to slip under our radar when it comes to these types of things.

@brianthegreat4807 2 года назад

I avoid crime by demographics. Even cops tell you not to stop at a red light at night in Gary Indiana.

@mickeymickey9914 2 года назад

I really hope diversity finds its way to where he lives. He can share his leftist theories while he's beaten for no reason.

@robgronotte1 2 года назад

It was never stated how this could cause injustices. IMO, unless people who did not commit crimes are being arrested, then no injustice was done.

@feller6766 2 года назад

I can't read that equation but all I know is that there's an 'owo' in it

@SolofAvaldor 2 года назад

The problem is knowing what you're looking at when analyzing data. Just like the plane damage, you have to be able to know the context in which your data fits. You can't have mathematicians do this because they don't understand how street level crime works. What you need is an experienced street cop, preferably one who also knows the area from which you took the data. You have to factor in the geography, knowledge of the population, knowledge of methodology, knowledge about the ebb and flow of traffic, both motorized and non-motorized. You have to examine each data point for it's context and how meaningful it is to what you're looking for. Pin maps and detailed first hand knowledge of an area have been methods used very successfully for years. I've seen first hand how effective these methods are. Math, even advanced math, without context will not do it. Context, knowledgeable context, is everything.

@mickeymickey9914 2 года назад

You really don't. There will be more r_pes in Detroit than Seattle. I don't need to be able to recite your list of excuses to to know that it's true.

@soonahero 2 года назад

This is nonsense, especially since we can track 911 calls by precise location

@Mr.Classic287 Год назад

cops were like: yo predict sopme crime. Math bros and dudes: nah man.

@Illstatefishing 2 года назад

Solidarity with the mathematicians!! ✊🏼

@HappyTV18417 2 года назад

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@danriddick914 2 года назад

Anyone else notice the OwO in the algorithm? lol

@ninjakiwigames5418 2 года назад

I got so happy to see a new video from this channel! :)

@im.waldo. 2 года назад

I love these videos so much. Micheal better watch out. These vids are on the rise lol

@roberthunter5059 2 года назад

Who's Michael?

@HouseofObiwan 2 года назад

@@roberthunter5059 original Vsauce guy, the one with the unibrow and loves to say “nonono”

@rlstine4982 8 месяцев назад

Me, a criminal outsmarting mathematicians: "Let's roll a dice to designate my target!" The dices: "Your target is the pentagon" Me: 🥲

@YesThisIsCrass 8 месяцев назад

The algorithm looks like it's giving a little wink at the end.

@spartanwar1185 2 года назад

On top of that, if there were enough people who know about this predictive policing They could easily just *_Avoid the areas with a crime history_*

@nairsheasterling9457 2 года назад

Assuming they aren't like - super poor. Which basically makes the poor subject to more police surveillance. Which already is kinda true.

@caput_in_astris 2 года назад

This models also works when replacing the word « criminalogy » by « astrology ».

@EmeraldArchive 2 года назад

Bill Nye didn't lie when he said science is cool

@rompevuevitos222 2 года назад

And dangerous, which just makes it cooler tbh

@Hurc7495 8 месяцев назад

As an engineer I have always been struck by the difference between the rigours mathematics I see in maths and physics in comparison to the fever dreams I’m taught in relation to economics. Chuck a nabla and a couple of partial derivatives at it and observations be damned, it must be true!

@freethebirds3578 8 месяцев назад

There's a county in Florida being sued by a number of families because predictive policing led to harassment by police.

@llamaduck99 2 года назад

They should predict where there won't be crimes, and go backwards from there.

@FrostbiteForever 2 года назад

is it me or does he say at 4:13 "real quick if you want to help vsauce end yourself" What ...are you threatening me!? lol

@RyanK-100 7 месяцев назад

Funny. By signing the document, it raised the salary of those who ARE willing to help the police by $20,000 a year. Supply and demand.

@kosherre6243 2 года назад

I guess there are cases where you really can become "too impartial" by relying on mathematics within the judicial system.

@quintessenceSL 2 года назад

Thing is the judicial system is anything but impartial. From the moral standards it attempts to codify, the application of those standards to specific groups, to how those punishments will be administered; the judicial system would prove itself even somewhat impartial for the impartiality of algorithm not to have devastating results. Further, it would seem you could use the same algorithms to root out police misconduct (all the same principals apply), but good luck in getting law enforcement to have the eye of Sauron directed at them.

@kosherre6243 2 года назад

@@quintessenceSL well said

@mickeymickey9914 2 года назад

No, there isn't actually

@kosherre6243 2 года назад

@@mickeymickey9914 what do you mean?

@mickeymickey9914 2 года назад

@@kosherre6243 Predictive policy worked, they just didn't like it because it hurts their feelings.

@uncrunch398 8 месяцев назад

Why is an algorithmic predictor expensive so expensive to use that it's dumped because L.A. can't afford it within their budget?

@goodlight4113 Год назад

Wasn't this like the entire premises of the TV show Numbers. Kinda.

@jeffkadlec8264 Год назад

The absence of data is not always relevant. But sometimes it is INCREDIBLY relevant!!!

@abelrrant 2 года назад

The reason for crime is poverty. How will society address it. Often in history, poverty isnt the fault of the individual but their oppressors, like Jim crow laws.

@AsheBailey 2 года назад

Because white collar crimes don't exist...

@ComeInToMadness 2 года назад

In no way is any of that a good reason, justification or excuse for crime. Possible reason and understanding of where it might come from is nice but shouldn't be excused

@Bridge2110 2 года назад

It's not though. People who are less intelligent, more impulsive, etc, are the kind to both earn less and commit less crime. Poverty and crime correlate, but there is little to no causation.

@luna010 2 года назад

@@Bridge2110 source? In every study I have found, an decrease in poverty has been followed by a decrease in crime. Things like redlining that directly economically hurt communities have lasting impacts on crime rates.

@luna010 2 года назад

@@ComeInToMadness The goal should be crime prevention, not post-crime punishment. If you see solving the underlying problems as ‘excusing’ crime, your priorities are broken. Also, crime is often justifiable/excusable. Legality is absolutely not equivalent to morality.

@robertparks3670 2 года назад

Reminds me of that early 2000's TV show Numbers with David Krumboltz.

@gorillaguerillaDK 2 года назад

Yup, very much inspired by the idea - also to be seen in other Copaganda shows...

@magic_cfw 2 года назад

I think having some sort of system to help predict regions of crime is probably as far a system like this can go. The principle of if there is a theft, the theft is likely to do it again in roughly the same place. But I assume that systems to mark hotspots already exist. (obvious things of "where car, there's car theft", "where alchohol, there's drunks". Predicting regions where crime can happen and roughly when they happen will help move police around in a smarter way)

@HappyTV18417 2 года назад

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@kevinxu4099 2 года назад

Not involving proper mathematicians would guarantee a worse outcome. If mathematicians are not involved to check the validity of the ML models, tech bros are more than happy to hack together a neural network based off the 6 hour online certificate and charge a pretty penny for their crime prediction service. While at the same time, giving a Ted talk about disrupting the maths industry.

@suxxess 2 года назад

The 50-50-90 rule: anytime you have a 50-50 chance of getting something right, there's a 90% probability you'll get it wrong. Andy Rooney

@f12736 2 года назад

🤔😐

@rompevuevitos222 2 года назад

The opposite is true as well. If it is not 100%, it is 50% Since it is still perfectly possible to fail

@AWest-ns3dl 2 года назад

I actually thought predictive policing was measured by the reduction of distance to destination. Which would avoid these biases.

@loturzelrestaurant 2 года назад

What Cops need is to be Defunded and Debundeled. But HOW can we ever fix the System if most people refuse to even learn how to grasp the phrase Defund the police??! Without the thought-provoking 'Defining Defund the Police'-Video of "Some More News", how can we help?

@AWest-ns3dl 2 года назад

@@loturzelrestaurant I get this movement. But what about financial crime? We might not need the Beat, but we still need Bobbies to be physically present to collect information. There is still a use for police. In most cases they're glorified security. Standing outside crime scenes for days. But I'd prefer a train Bobby than someone from G4S outside McDonalds.

@SmallSpoonBrigade 2 года назад

@@AWest-ns3dl Honestly, if you kill a couple people, you go to prison, possibly the chair. If you kill thousands of people with a faulty product, you get a bonus and free membership to the local country club paid for by the company.