Google Zeitgeist is a collection of talks by people who are changing the world. Hear entrepreneurs, CEOs, storytellers, scientists, and dreamers share their visions of how we can shape tomorrow.
HRC won the popular vote by @ 3 million ballots, but Trump won the Electoral College who really elects the president, because the Founding Fathers feared populism so much they figured it was the best way to create the look and feel of Democracy without the risk of a popular candidate winning the presidency without the consent of the elites. Isn't it Ironic?
Ya got THAT God Damn Right!!! NOTICE how he says DEMAGOGUE .....Yeah, THATS In The Eye Of The Beholder!!! Oh, and then Chinese Migration and Exclusion Act....
What exactly is a ruling class that is has this ubiquitous, all consuming power? Do we really think that all the Western leaders are getting in a room, twirling their mustaches and going "BWAHAHAHA"?
No, it's when crooked, showy men tell the desperate underclass that it's time to get mean, to take it over the line, that anyone who isn't with us is against us, and that there will be time to regret our transgressions later (preferably in the afterlife). The worst part of populism isn't that it charges the innocent to hurt the innocent, it's that it doesn't work.
@@elizabethblackwell6242 Communism was one notable example of populism, yes. Marxism and Communism has a lot of overlap - after all one is built upon the other - but it is an important distinction to make. But to think that Communism is the only kind of populism out there would be a pretty dire error.
Populism - definition - a political approach that strives to appeal to ordinary people who feel that their concerns are disregarded by established elite groups.
@@joeldwest Hi Victoria, you may very well be right. But democracy says Trump is president. Ethical is subjective, democracy is objective. The point of my comment was, Populism is derided by many as the belief of uneducated idiots who's opinions are worthless. I am an educated, and believe myself sensible and I feel my concerns are disregarded by the established politicians. I have realised I am therefore a populist. I was an Obama fan, but I realised as his tenure progressed that he did nothing and had nothing new to say, although he always said it well. The problem is, it was all words, nothing changed. Trump at least is different. Bernie Sanders is fine man, and a nice person, and ethical, but will never be president. Socialism will never be part of the US political agenda, if you are waiting for that, I'm afraid you will be disappointed.
watchman56able It is what will stop the flow of money to the top and reverse the impovershment of our nation, which is the only thing right-wing politics does.
I thank God every . single . day . for sending Donald J. Trump down that escalator on June 16, 2015 and guided him straight into to the White House.. For if not for him, our nation would have died, unable to recover ever again. England should brace itself - their day as well is on the horizon. . . . and it is good.
Immigration doesn’t personally negatively effect me financially but if you don’t think bringing in millions of low skilled and low paid workers doesn’t have a negative impact on wages you’re ignorant or your ideology won’t let you believe it. Even Bernie Sanders agrees w this. Pay will never rise on the lower end as long as you have a continuous stream of these workers. . Without them companies would be forced to pay better w more benefits because nobody will do those jobs for such a small amount of $ but get pay where it solidly be and no doubt Americans will work them.
@ Kevin Odom What troubles me more is that no one dare mention automation, like it or not, jobs are being supplanted by automation and A.I., and the only person in Political life I've even heard mention it is Andrew Yang. 30% of all jobs in the US are driving, mostly by middle aged men. When things start to really kick in, in way the next 5-10 years, what is going to happen to societal cohesion when a large percentage are jobless with no prospect.of finding employment and more joining them every month? It seems no one is even looking at the mid to long term issues, and therefore allowing unskilled migrants in droves into your country is a really bad decision. I believe TPTB understand this and are deliberately letting this happen, so the people will be fighting each other and not them when the time comes. If you step back and analyse the situation it is absurdly naive and stupid to think things can carry on like this for much longer. I can see countries closing their borders to protect their citizens in the not too distant future.
With the benefits of hindsight (May 5,2019), it is clear that Niall Ferguson was as deluded as the political class. A sobering thought. So much for celebrity historians.
There was no welfare state in the 19th century. People immigrated in order to find work.lmigrants now collect welfare from the welfare state and vote for liberals and Democrats. PS I am no relation to this Sophist.
Celebrity historians are real pieces o' crap. I much prefer the reenactors, local buffs, and wargamers. At least they don't go around quoting each other and calling it a book.
Where he is totally missing the point is when it happened with the Chinese the tax level was virtually 1% of what it is now and the stream of people was a fraction of current levels
The basic idea of populism is that virtue lies in the ordinary people, not the rich ruling elite, and the experts who serve them. This populist movement is a result of economic conditions only partially. The large ideological currents are caused by objective class relations, between everybody else and a relatively tiny elite of extremely rich and powerful people. The existence of the contradiction between the classes is becoming apparent, although the elite is doing everything it can to obscure the situation, and stop a populist, unified front of forming. Populists have so many alliances to make. We the people can wield such enormous power, and use it for good, if we organize and go after our own interests as a collective, instead of competing for crumbs from the owner's table. The internet is causing a mass awakening, and it can't be stopped. We're going to see changes incredibly quickly, once the situation really starts escalating. The tide is definitely turning.
Kudos for accurate predictions of Trump's election, and what policies would result. But I condemn your obvious preference for the continuation of globalism, continuation of massive illegal immigration, continuation of the pockets of America picked by foreign nations in their predatory trade, continuation of the onward march of Progressive corruption of our culture. Looking back now on the first two years of Trump's administration reveals your preferences for what should have happened to be contemptible.
@@elizabethblackwell6242 How so? This talk refers mostly to past conditions which led to that particular point in time. It doesn't really makes any predications, just alludes to scary things that might happen in the future as a cautionary impulse, which is completely different from a serious predication.
@ xandercorp He has predicated future outcomes on previous events, which is just like playing a slot machine just after you've hit the jackpot, past events are not a great indicator of future outcomes. His speech failed miserably in pinpointing just why Trump's message was resonating. He failed to mention even once Obama's legacy, his wars, his business regulations, his lack of economics, his dismal GDP and his general snobbery in talking down to middle America. As Ferguson said, Trump is not about Fascism, his message has been overtly based on Economic Populism, as long as you come legally, obey the law , work hard then America is open for business, he campaigned and has governed as a law and order President. Now on 10th May 2019, Ferguson's speech comes in way off the mark, as if he wrote it to please his audience, he has been off the mark about Trump on every point, the US has had continued job growth, wage increases for those at the bottom, GDP @ 3.2% and although he's in a trade war with China, it had to be done, the Chinese had been ripping everyone off since they entered the WTO. There are some negatives as always with any Presidency, but as regards Russia, the Trump Administration has boxed Russia into a corner, with the ramping up of NATO with additional armament spending, and crippling sanctions imposed on Russia's energy exports, the harshest sanctions ever imposed on The Russian Federation. So pretty much, Ferguson's talk equates to a Nate Silver tweet at about the same time in 2016......
@@Deccom So you can't even answer a simple question, then? You didn't address my question at all, and just moved straight into unrelated talking points. Also, did you mean to say "predicated", or did you mean "predicted"?
The economy boomed until corona under this populist, wages went up, unemployment went down... economy was the best economy we had since the 50’s. Great predictions bra 👍
Niall explains the question why Trump well here as always using a deep knowledge of history. His populist stew: 1. high immigration 2. strong inequality 3. great corruption 4. a financial crisis 5. a demagogue
Niall was for the uk staying in the EU pre BRExit, but changed his opinion. Perhaps he is the only member of the arrogant classes to change his minds with the facts.
Every country needs a council of historical advisors. Unbiased, blunt, in-your-face historical facts. It's alarming how little history is known amongst non-historians. Not the same as non-plumbers not knowing about plumbing.
For a man who considers himself a historian he has been extraordinarily selective about the types of movement which he calls "populist". (ONLY those which seemed ant-globalist, because only these fitted his view of what is right.) Had he been honest and made it clear what types of movement HE was going to call populist, then it would have come across as an interesting and entertaining talk. Instead it just came across as yet more right wing/"liberal"/Globalist talk to the extent that it was offensively patronising , and the little twist against conservatism at the end was about as effective in covering serious bias as throwing a teatowel over an elephant.
As a side note, Niall says in a recent interview with John Anderson that Trump is making a far better president than Hillary would have. He said a few other positive things about Trump also.
Globalization does NOT equal immigration. Globalization is about trade, not the mass-movement of people (because of cheap, modern airplane technology). Niall seems to suggest that Globalization must involve mass-immigration, which is surprising.
I never understood how making the global markets easy to access means everyone should open their borders to immigrants rather than just opening borders for cheaper goods.
@@P3RF3CTD3ATH The issue isn't opening borders to goods, nor is it trade per se, it is competition. That is the real problem, and why some here have pointed out that capitalism is what is really at work in making globalization such a disaster for working people around the world, including the USA. If you have a global economy where everyone is open to goods from around the world, you get competition among countries to supply those goods. We know now that the winner is whoever has the cheapest effetive labor, namely China. But to be in the competition, companies in other countries including the US and European countries have only two options:have your companies go where the cheap labor is (China, Mexico, etc.) which makes the investors rich but destroys jobs, industrial base, infrastructure, skill levels, and unions and the middle class and increases inequality, or else you import the cheaper labor into your own country to produce more cheaply. The only alternative is to opt for a national economy that provides employment for nearly everyone, reduces inequality, prevents the import of cheap goods that compete with national industry, and has government maintain infrastructure and the national unity that goes with greater equality. Something like the New Deal, postwar welfare states and Keynesian economies, or democratic socialism.
Gosh, hindsight is an amazing thing indeed... This talk is so very interesting in hindsight. But it also shows how opinions shape the interpretation of historical events and hence it is again opinion that shapes predictions of how history will indeed develop. Humans are obsessed with predictions but blessed with hindsight.
Basic Idea of this talk is.... 1. Globalization is not bad, its only perceived this way. 2. That Immigration of Non-Whites taking over and replacing the White population is not the problem because that's not even a thing to be worried about. and stopping it wont help anyone 3. that Fascism and populism are different because populism fights for trade 4. That populism doesn't work, because the problems that it seeks to address Don't actually exist 5. The antidote to populism is progressive-ism. -When he said that i knew instantly this guy's no historian, He should listen to a real historian on progressive-ism like Victor Davis Hanson 6. Beautiful at the end. The last thing progressives want is for trump to be sucsessful cause that might mean hes right O and hes speaking to google apparently. 16:40 PS. anyone who google or silicon valley types bring to speak are completely discredited
''That Immigration of Non-Whites taking over and replacing the White population is not the problem because that's not even a thing to be worried about.'' If the mass immigration of non chinese people was replacing chinese people in their country, would it be justified for the chinese people to be concerned? Of course it is, just like it is justified for Europeans to be concerned, especially at the staggering rate that the demographics are changing
He ignores the two main drivers of the Populist movement 1/ The Jewish Question 2/ Race Realism He ignores the jewish supremacist network influence in financing third world immigration into white countries. Their influence in getting white countries to fight their wars and most importantly he ignores that third world IQ's are genetically half of ours and that racial differences are genetic as well as ingrained 70000 years of culture.
chickenassasintk, eh? Victor Davis Hanson isn't even a proper historian, his focus is on Military History. How does that make him relevant to discussing the current political, economic and cultural shifts. Niall Ferguson is a preeminent historian; his record and bibliography proves as much.
@@@Mogwai786 his Record is on paper not in practicality, yes Victor Davis Hanson is a military historian, and still knows more about politics and everything else than this guy, his talk a progressive says its all, he thinks that the liberal way is the way to fix every thing. Not knowing that the only times his Liberal views exist is in city's far removed from reality where everything becomes an abstract thought right before they are destroyed by invasion or revolution
chickenassasintk, I simply stated a well known facts, that VDH is a military historian and not, say, a socio-economic one, which is what Niall Ferguson is. Why does he know more than Ferguson then? Isn't the case that you just want to accept his point of view more because he aligns with your own political bias? What scholarly work has VDH done that reflects the political-cultural world we live in today? There are few historians as preeminent and popular as Ferguson. It's OK not to like a historian or disagree with them, but it's folly to ignore his work in favour of someone who is less of an expert 'just because'.
This guy: Populist solutions are snake oil, reducing globalistion won't fix problems. President Trump: Implements populist solutions - Wages increase, Millions of new jobs, GDP hits 4% growth Best Snake Oil ever!
@@ireneuszpyc6684 He is most certainly better than Bush and Obama but that is not hard to do. We will need to wait and see what happens. Trump could end up being a one term president and the next president comes in and destroys the place.
@@ireneuszpyc6684.. Trump is the most important President since Lincoln.. His Presidency has fully exposed the hysterical left for all the world to see and awakened the masses. Political correctness, victimhood, guilt complex, open borders, gender fluid non-binary bullshit, full term abortions (infanticide), are all packaged under the same umbrella "SOCIAL JUSTICE" which is sold as the promise of a Utopian delusion all wrapped in a honey filled sugar coated rainbow, when in reality it's a giant leap down the slippery murky road into a Marxist totalitarian society.
The man literally uses historical events and draws parallels to events happening now on how populism is bad. Populism is what ended the Roman Republic. History repeats itself because humans are the same throughout history and refuse to believe that what happened before won't happen again, and you're definitely not learning a thing from it
I would like to hear REAL reasons why populist solutions are "inherently bogus", and not the dogmatic hand waving provided. And, btw, Brazil just elected a populist leader, so Mr. Ferguson was wrong about that. I still enjoyed the education of the ingredients for a populist getting elected - and the prediction was indeed correct, and thus very impressive in that regard.
Item 3 contributes to item 1 and 2. Item 1 plays a contributory part to number 2. Excess wealth being redistributed from Item 2 creates a partial feedback into Item 1. As with everything, its complicated, but the first three are heavily linked together.
5 years later things didn't turn out on both sides like Niall Ferguson intimated. Elsewhere he talked about us going through the 2nd Reformation that is much more apt.
'Populism' a word first made popular in the fledgling Soviet Union circa 1918 to describe dissidents, undesirables and unwanted ethnic groups. Not long after Vladimir Lenin initiated the first concentration camps in Russia which later became a massive countrywide network of torture, misery and death which oversaw the murder of at least 20 million innocent people, now commonly known as the Gulag Archipelago.
For the first time I understand why everyone says that the more Dems hassle Trump the more popular he becomes and more likely he'll be elected again. Normally you'd expect even the implication of wrongdoing to tank a campaign but ceaseless indictments does nothing.
A lot of good historical sense here. I like his ideas and his way of separating ideological intent from actual outcomes. It reminds me of some of John Mearsheimer's thinking. It doesn't bother me particularly that Ferguson's prediction that Trump would not be elected was wrong. I think he understands what Trump _is_. Ferguson's characterization of Populism rings true to me. My concern is with any historian who argues that what will happen tomorrow is a repeat of something that happens in the past. In my experience, every single public figure who has predicted the future on the basis of a past event has been wrong. He seems very focused on the period 1870-1914. I've no doubt his interpretation of that period has a lot to recommend it. I think it's less useful as a predictor of what is happening now. There is so much that is different now. I'm just not convinced that tomorrow is going to play out according to a pre-established pattern. But I am impressed by him, both as a speaker and historian. I'll be watching more of NF.
Strange isn't it...his name (Kearney) is actually pronounced 'Carnee', in the same way as the current Governor of the Bank of England. Mark Carney happens to hold Irish citizenship, the country where Kearney originated.
These interpretations are interesting. And I like Niall. But he builds a house of cards in his narrative. Why not, mindful of the Law of Parsimony, NOT construct a narrative, and simply discuss issues on their own independent merits. So, for example, why is ILLEGAL immigration debate, a debate in the least. Trump's position on immigration is NOT controversial. The Left has simply whipped up an illegitimate narrative conflating all immigration. I'm tiring of this absurd propaganda about immigration and Trump. There may be valid criticism of Trump, but this isn't it.
Because markets lift the global poor out of poverty by jobs flowing their way until they are making enough money that their labour is no longer cheap and those jobs flow to those less well off, all the while the places those jobs leave specialise and innovate using the cheap materials from the places those jobs moved to.
Interesting to look back now. Great forecast (on the US; not so much re. Brazil). It's often been said that the USA has its own sort of self-healing, self-pharmacating to deal with ugly antibodies that might more permanently harm the republic's health. The mid-term vote is a good example. Can you call it a backlash to the backlash? Another interesting pre-election forecast came from a maybe unexpected source: Susan Sarandon. I remember seeing her somewhere on TV saying, after Bernie Sanders had lost the Democrat primaries, that a Donald Trump victory might be very bad thing, but it might also be a useful thing. The expected disaster of his presidency would, she said, swing opinion back towards the Democratic Socialism that Sanders was pushing for. Good on ya, America.
I have a great deal of respect for Ferguson and have had since his first book about the Rothschilds. He seems to continuously miss judge China however. His comments about Christian factories in China has not held true. His book called "The War' saying WW I and WW II was just one war is true from a macro perspective but did not go to the core issue that the result was making the West and the far East safe for Communism. The Chinese exclusionary act was much more important than he realizes. Populism is a very broad term and not something that can be dealt with in a short talk. Trying to shrink history and make it more digestible seldom works. Paul Johnson is a good example of that.
A demagogue appeals to the population and their desires and prejudices with rational argument. What do we call a person that appeals to the desires and prejudices, but with rational argument?
@@xandercorp6175 They do for defence, if nothing else. My fear is that we've never carried our weight in that regard, and still don't, and the US will cut us loose.
@@elizabethblackwell6242 How? Every modern scenario of military attacks on developed nations hinges on attacks on infrastructure, not Trump's notions of defense as far as I can tell. But Trump has done little either in word or in spirit to address the weaknesses of our various essential infrastructures.
I reckon our biggest threats are attacks on our digital/intelligence infrastructure and disease. Imagine SARS or Ebola let loose in the States or my country, Australia!
I'm not sure from this why I should be happy about globalisation. Maybe 'popularist' backlashes are needed to retain some balance. I only had it in the background but I was getting the idea we should never let these things happen. Why? Maybe I missed the point, maybe you meant it a different way in which case you need to make your point clear, some of us may not be focused on you because we're cleaning out or son's room, some of may just not be able to focus. Still, I would like to know, why?
Alexander Mills Waht his more recent stuff. He not making the same claims. This was Pre Trump success. He is realizing the left is after liberal thinkers as well as conservatives and populist. Antifa types will man the guard towers at the indoctrination camps the left will create. As they march him in at gun point maybe it will dawn on him who is the true enemy.
@Tech Tacho Yeah right... He hasn't fixed the coming financial crisis, the one that will fuck everyone over. Contrary to Obama who fixed the economy after the last recession.
Ferguson makes no attempt to give a definition of populism, something that is fundamental to this argument. The dictionary definition is 'support for the concerns of ordinary people' or 'the quality of of appealing to or being aimed at ordinary people'. Barack Obama takes issue with the use of the term in this context arguing that populism has to do with protecting the little guy against powerful corporate interests, guaranteeing educational opportunity regardless of wealth, and insuring a fair shake for workers. Obama added; “I suppose that makes me a populist”. No politician can get elected without addressing the concerns of ordinary people to some extent and therefore they are all populist to a degree.
“Ignore these warnings signs at your own peril!” Spends the next 18 minutes disregarding the warning signs. Have to admit to a petulant bit of glee when I hear their derisive laughter at the thought of a trump presidency.
While I find myself often agreeing with Mr. Ferguson, his prediction of peace in Syria, with Trump at the helm, has not and will not manifest. However, his prediction of the demagogue appearing in American politics did come to pass and we are stuck with it, for the time being. It is unlikely that Trump will win re-election. Too many forces have now lined up against him. Even members of Congress from his own party are calling for impeachment. The rest of 2019 and certainly all of 2020 are going to very interesting indeed!
Ultimately community production of community needs and community worker owned production, will stablize communities. The more communities to do this the more stability. And, just to be clear fuck war.
It could be argued that America in the 1870s was already fascist, At least It would be called fascist by today's standards with its ethnic cleansing of Indians and segregation of black people. And didn't WW1 start when Austria invaded Serbia? Then once the Austrians waged war on Serbia, Russia backed their orthodox, Slavic brothers - which in turn ended up bringing the Kaiser into the conflict. A case of big brother sticking up for little brother. WW1 was caused by squabbling Kings essentially - not Liberals.
You need to re-read your history. The Grant administration fought against the re-subjugation of the freed blacks by the democrats and the copperheads of the north. The point is simply that the ones that call on base natures will find a crowd if they are charismatic and can achieve power to implement their passions. Today, the leftists pursue PC controls that subjugate nonconformists to their doctrines.
Certainly worth looking at the turn of the 19th century in the US and comparing it to today. It warrants a longer period from 1880 to the 1900's. I think a comparison of Trump to Theodore Roosevelt would be fairly accurate. Reducing immigration and job competition can increase wages, this has not been proven false. Also tariffs can also be effective to some degree. To say the solutions are wholly ineffective is an overstatement. Neill fails to mention that the populism movement was largely on the left not the right. There was an increase in unions and increase in educational programs and other social programs to help deal with income equality. The real danger is to ignore the needs of the rising populist groups which the Dems have done to their peril. Denis Kearney is largely unknown because he is irrelevant. William Jennings Bryan is relevant. Even though not elected he tried to ride the wave of populism at the time. I think Naill is fitting history to his purposes rather than learning anything from it. The real question is why have the Dems deserted ordinary Americans for the Liberal Elite and Globalization?
Looks like he stayed out the night before and had to buy his shirt on the way there. Don't American stores have irons in store for blokes caught in such a position?
@ no they're not - who do you think you are kidding? They're the crease lines virtually every shirt shows once they're folded up to present the centre of the shirt (the collar, buttons, shirt) when it's put in a plastic packet for distribution. Those torso crease lines don't survive the first wash, though ironing reinforces the top of the arm crease lines.
Ferguson is CORRECT. Illegal Mexican immigrants HAVE tremendously DAMAGED the building trade industry in California. In fact, unless he’s seen it with his own eyes, he wouldn’t know how bad the situation actually is. So thank you, Mr Ferguson, for pointing that out. Furthermore Mr. Ferguson, please come to California and live in a nightmare neighborhood inhabited by illegal aliens. They’d LOVE to sing “Kumbaya “ with you, hand in hand.
I will be voting for Donald Trump again in 2020. I don't like him, but I dislike the alternative more. Isn't that great, the land of the free, the land of liberty and opportunity, has such a bad set of choices that Donald Trump is the best of the bad set. What I like about Donald Trump is his supposed commitment to the American people. What I don't like about him is his inability to communicate his views. He is a like a Zen Master, speaking in riddles, and confusing even the most intelligent of commentators. What does he actually stand for (other than himself) who knows. But one thing he does understand is money, and most American's don't understand that the US is broke. The US must right the economic ship, which is currently listing and about to take on so much water that it will sink and take everyone down with it. Trump for all his faults at least understands this, the democrats do not appear to understand the situation.
I don't know, that Andrew Yang fellow seems different from the rest of the crowd of cowards and liars and seems to have some solutions. Do you see something I don't see?
16:00- 16.21: "A fascinating lesson on Latin American history is the reminder that populism is it doesn't work... you get disgusted and turn away...it's sort of happening slowly and painfully in Brazil..." 2019: Now right-wing populist Jair Bolsonaro (Trump with aggressive anti-Amazon and indigenous and conservation agenda) has just taken over the presidency, Brazil simply seems to have swapped left-wing populism for that of the ultra-hard right. I wonder what Niall makes of that...
How I love hindsight, it gives one such an advantage . Fergie is singing a different tune today when the world is gripped by a pandemic that originated in China . In fact he goes as far to say that Trump was right in his trade war , but wrong to water it down. But I do agree with Ferguson that history is too often ignored , possibly because the modernity believe that they know best. Americas war with Afhganistan is a prime example, Britain and Russia both failed to control the natives, but Gods own people will succeed , well they didn't, and a little reading of history would have saved the trouble.When one listens to these highly opiniated experts the audience they are speaking too should be considered. His opening gambit , hands up those who are thinking of voting for Trump, raised my heckles for a start. I wonder what Dr N.F. would have to say about the UK's death rate from COVID 19. Liberals are deeply concerned that a too large a proportion are coming from BAME (Black,Asian. Minority , Ethnicity ) and the government has said that poor conditions are to blame. Whoa, hold the horses. who insisted that millions of immigrants ,many of them illegal could freely enter the country with no money or jobs to go to. Yes the friggin Liberals . Sorry Niall but your lecture is pure B.S.
I object! conclusionary language. #5 Demagogue. Someone you disagree with. He says nothing of the many many demagogues supporting the previous consensus. Every Congressman and Parliamentarian spends some of his time as a demagogue. Iron rule of leadership: No followers, not a leader.
