Will Microvision Stock be Delisted from the NASDAQ?
Microvision has dropped below a dollar for the first time since I started buying it in 2019. GENERALLY, I have maintained that the stock price for MVIS doesnt really matter so much UNTIL Microvision starts making deals - the price action for the last few years has been a result of pure speculation of an impending deal that has so far evaded my favorite modern laser beam company.
BUT, todays price is different. On Friday, they closed under a dollar. And one of the rules for trading stock on the NASDAQ and New York Stock Exchanges are to maintain a stock price of over a dollar.
This is a metaphorical big red blinking light BUT, it actually takes a bit before things kick in. Here are the rules.
If Microvision’s stock remains under one dollar for 30 consecutive days they will then be considered “out of compliance.” The good news is that once a company is not in compliance, there is a 180 day window for the price of the stock to raise above 1 dollar for 10 consecutive days. Thats 180 calendar days.
And even then, at the end of that 180 days - as long as the stock has $2.5 million dollars of shareholder equity (they do) and one million dollars of market value (they do) they will be eligible for a SECOND 180 period before being delisted from the markets.
So were looking at an entire year from last Friday June 14th before Microvision is under actual threat of being delisted.
This concludes the purely educational and fact based portion of todays video- on to my biased speculation :)
There is no denying that Microvision stated what they expected for a timeline for a deal and then completely missed. Not only did they not make a deal - but in the last earnings call, and I actually have a suspicion Sumit meant a slightly different thing than how it came out, but if theres one thing I learned from 6 years of Engineering school its that working engineers are not overwhelmingly good at communicating to non-engineers. Which is why I feel like my small role in this story can actually be meaningful sometimes..
Sumit said some things that made it sound like the company is going to be essentially worthless until closer to the end of the decade. What I think he MEANT is that the big revenues will really start to snowball starting in 2027-2028 - 2030…
But what he didn’t say, and also I think it would be irresponsible for him to have said anyway, is that the market doesnt care about actual profitability - it cares about the promise of profitability. It cares about the sentiment and the trajectory and the probability of the timeline for that profitability, and the velocity of that trajectory.
Which is why when their proposed trajectory shifted from up and to the right, to… rain delay.. The market dumped.
But in reality, the actual trajectory hasn’t changed - the money has ALWAYS been in 2027 and beyond for this first deal. But the deal itself is the promise and the comfort we all need to feel confident in the money actually coming in. No deal, no confidence in the future.
In reality - there were 9 automotive deals on the table. Presumably now there are less than nine, but no one has said anything about ALL of them falling through or being significantly delayed. So the way I see it - Sumit and the boys have 30 days, plus 180 days, plus 180 days to close their first consumer automotive lidar deal.
Theres still money in the bank, and Im confident in these smaller forklift and farm equipment deals to push out the runway long enough to get fucking carburetor unclogged and get this Spruce Goose up into the air.
TLDR, all hope is not lost - we’ve seen where the stock goes when people THINK theres a deal, which means 95 cents is a REALLY good price if you’ve got some spare money that youre not afraid to lose.
16 июн 2024
