Zillow estimates plummeting. Investors taking $150,000 write downs on houses. 

I mean - I called it. But now that it's happening it's a bit surreal. First Key Homes is the 5th or 6th largest owner in America. And there's now examples popping up of them selling at a 25% loss. Up until now - we had seen less extreme examples of investors selling that I had reported on in previous videos. But this one is stark. You need to track the housing data in your city/ZIP code to see what's happening. Head to www.reventure.app right now to do that. Inventory/home value data is free.

I’m in Ohio and the housing market here over the last 7-8 years is unlike anything I’ve ever seen. Homes that were bought for $130K in 2015 are now being sold for $590k. I’m talking about tiny, disgusting, poorly built 950 square foot shit boxes in quiet mediocre neighborhoods. Then you’ve got Better, average sized homes in nicer neighborhoods that were $300K+ 10 years ago selling for $750k+ now. Wild times.

If anything, it's likely to get worse. Affordable housing will soon become unaffordable. Therefore, I advise taking action now because today's prices will seem like bargains tomorrow. Until the Fed takes more decisive action, I expect we will see hysteria due to rampant inflation. You can't just halfway rip the band-aid off.

Mortgage rates are currently at an all time high since 2000(23 years) and based on statistics on inflation, we might see that number skyrocket further, a 30-year fixed rate was only 5% this time last year, so do I just keep waiting for a housing crash before buying or redirect my focus to the equity market

From my analysis, people overpaid for homes even while loan rates were low, I believe there will be a housing catastrophe because these people are in debt. If housing costs continue to drop and, for whatever reason, they can no longer afford the property and it goes into foreclosure, they have no equity since, even if they try to sell, they will not make any money. I believe that many individuals will experience this, especially given the impending mass layoffs and rapidly rising living expenses.

Investors should be banned from buying houses. Houses are for people, not shitty Wall Street.

A 45% Drop Across The Board Would Be A Good Start.

Even if prices were reduced by 50% in my area the homes still wouldn't be worth the asking price.

I am THRILLED these investment companies are taking losses on these homes. They have NO BUSINESS buying single family homes and renting them or leasing them. If I was in government, I would make it illegal for investment companies to buy single family homes. It unnecessarily drives up prices, making it more difficult for regular people to buy. They prevent people from building wealth.

When people cannot buy a home, the value of the unsold home is $0.00

27 million homes are owned by investors - this should be a crime. There is no way housing should have been allowed to become investment capital. I hope they go broke and we finally find a way to own a home again.

Keep your powder dry. Fire sales coming over the next few years! ❤❤❤

Because so many people overpaid for homes even while loan rates were low, I believe there will be a housing catastrophe because these people are in debt. If housing costs continue to drop and, for whatever reason, they can no longer afford the property and it goes into foreclosure, they have no equity since, even if they try to sell, they will not make any money. I believe that many individuals will experience this, especially given the impending mass layoffs and rapidly rising living expenses.

Florida has always been a Boom/Bust State. It's Cyclical. Thanks Nick!

Another thing I forgot to mention. I moved to Orlando in 2010, after the real estate market crash. I lived there until 2021 (personally, I loved living there). When I first moved there the big thing that people told me was just how rough it was not only going thru the real estate crash, but just prior to the real estate crash. Just how unaffordable everything had became by 2006 and how screwed everybody was. The market crashed so bad that it didn't start to recover until about 2014 and even then it was making small progress. I can see history rhyming already.

27 million investor homes. That never should have been allowed to begin with.

Oh, I feel SO BAD for them! The car dealers with all of the add ons too! Poor babies!

I hope you are right Nick. Because I’m not seeing that here in AZ, especially in N AZ. There are still too many sellers trying to make $300,000 in less than 2 years from when they bought the house.

If my house value declined by 50 percent, I'd still be sitting pretty. I bought my house to live in until I retire and a value drop would lower my property taxes.

I am at the beginning of my "investment journey", planning to put 85K into dividend stocks so that I will be making up to 30% per year in dividend returns. Any advice?

These investors are the ones responsible for driving up home prices, causing families unable to afford one. Too bad if they lose money now!

I've worked for homebuilders for almost 2 decades. The unfinished house is typical - especially at that price point. The street view shows the house wasn't started at least in Sept 2023, so that's less than a year. Semi-custom builders will build out the house to a certain point but they want to get it under contract with a Buyer before finishing. At this price level, Buyers want to pick their own interior finishes, so you don't want to finish the house before selling it. Tract Builders finish homes before selling them. They're called spec homes. I assure you, nobody has "abandoned" this structure.

Some big factors here in Florida are rising property taxes, unaffordable homeowners insurance, a glut of brand new homes and apartments and less people moving in .

As a Florida Certified Contractor, I can say that even at a 30% reduction, that home is still overpriced. You do not want to move to Florida and purchase a home. Even if you find a home for 75% off. Check the home insurance costs! Outrageous! Insurance companies love to collect, but never to pay!!!

You made a comment about the builder not finishing the homes, probably running out of funds. In Cape Coral, the builders build the homes almost to completion. When the house is sold they then put in the appliances. If they do not CO the house they do not have to pay taxes on the house, they only pay the taxes on the dirt. Why would they finish the house if it is not sold?

*****Development LLC owns 5 homes, purchased 2021 & 2022, started renovations, via private lending. Investors stopped lending, houses left 1/2 finished ..Now, in Foreclosure/Auction. All but one was completed. (priced to high, did not sell). Scottsdale/Paradise Valley - AZ. It's just the beginning...And this is only **one** investor. Buckle up!

*I bought in last crash and people have no clue how bad this will get, Cape Coral is mostly contractors who rely on home building Ect work when it dries up you’ll see 50% crash*

It's definitely alarming to hear about a default cycle, especially in the context of the housing market. Defaults can lead to foreclosures, and that has a cascading effect on the overall real estate landscape.

Very interesting point about the new ability of homeowners to check Zillow and see Zestimates dropping before their very eyes--like a stock market account.

Will this happen nationwide? I hope so! I’m in Maryland and see home prices going down, sitting longer, foreclosures, relistings because financing fell thru, and some homes taken off of the market because they raised the price in Spring and it didn’t sell! So, they just removed the listing, waiting and losing money. 😂 I LOVE IT!

An abandoned build site would not have 2 dumpsters or a port a potty on site. No way the ladder doesn't get stolen either....

When you lose this much on a house you just bought, even if it performs later on, the DCF is fucked and it destroys the ROI. Good, fuck 'em.

You called it buddy. Keep up the good work Nick!

This situation would make a great movie. For example "The Big Short", "Margin Call" or "Inside Job". By the way the proper quote is "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it". -George Santayana PS Keep up the good work.

I was in the market in 06-12. I learned A LOT. It feels a lot like 06 right now.... In 06 I was one of the people in denial about the market going down. I sounded just like the people saying "up only" now. I'm approaching this market differently this time around. I'll be a buyer in the next 1-5 years and I will be getting some great deals.

What exactly does “Couldn’t rent it out” mean? Any home is rentable at the right price. No one wanted to pay $2745, so it sat vacant for two years while the price dropped $109,000? Because they wanted above-market rent? Insane.

My family owe you a great deal of thanks. We've been following your channel for about 2-3 years now and at the height of the bubble in FL, we moved our family from Tampa (after leaving there for >12 years) for rural NH. Our insurance costs and property values is one of the major factors of pushing us out (increase of >$300/month in one year). We were lucky enough to get out quick with a house flipper purchasing our home for cash (less overall $, but very quick turnaround to move). We loved the freedom that FL provided through the Plandemic, but the cost to live along with the strangulating devaluation of the dollar was becoming too much. Without your info, tracking, and presentations, we wouldn't have been able to connect the dots intellectually of what we knew instinctually, "if we don't get out of FL now, we won't get out for the next 5-10 years if ever". Please continue doing your good work, you are helping many more than you know. Godspeed.

I don’t like people losing money but this is much needed! Housing needs to be affordable again!

Beryl the earliest Cat 4 ever. If a Cat 4 or 5 hits Florida this year the insurance industry will abandon the state. That will be game over for the Sunshine state. Any young person with advanced skills and credentials would be foolish to move here. They can do better in other states with lower risks.

~I'm favoured, $150K every week! I can now give back to the locals in my community and also support God works and the church. God bless American 🇺🇸….

Two homes in my neighborhood were investor bought and one was rented. Both are now empty one for sale and one for rent. Been about 6 months now.

House that investors are taking a $110k loss looks like it could still drop more. Dudes bought it at the absolute peak. Look at pre pandemic values in the $200k range.

We are renting a home from First Key in NC. We were the first renters to move into the home after they purchased it from the original owner. We're on our 3rd year here and still paying less for the size house we're in versus buying now. If the market goes the way I hope it does, then this will be our last year here. I'm just sitting on my capital hoping/waiting for the market to drop into my buying range. Thanks for your videos and insight on the market.

We used to keep our boat right down the road from those neighborhoods in Punta Gorda. That area is in the middle of nowhere with no grocery stores, no hospital, no restaurants. I don’t believe that the investors knew what they were buying.

Well done, Nick. I wish you'd come down to Brevard County, and check it out. The listing agencies are still puffing hard on the crack pipe.

I own a furniture store in Port Charlotte, FL. Sales have increased for the last three calendar years. This year we are seeing a decline. We will see.

*Having multiple streams of income is a game-changer for stability. Relying solely on a job may not provide enough financial security due to high rates of tax, it is important to explore additional investment opportunities to surpass one"s expectation*

No fire sale and it is far different than 2007/2008. WHY, because condo fees have doubled and tripled, insurance costs have gone through the roof, repairs and reserves on most buildings are out of control so no real estate agents are willing to say that if you think you need $1500 a month then double the money to meet all the other expenses so you actually need $3000. I had no mortgage and I was priced out of my condo just because of the huge increase in condo fees, insurance, repairs, and taxes, huge. Just moved to Europe at 73 years old since USA is out of control.

I lowered my list price by $90k in 6 weeks to get it under contract. Thankfully closing in 2 weeks. Other homes in my price range have been sitting for 6 months or longer, some over a year.

Always always love your info man!

As a homeowner in Texas, the only times I want my home to have a high value is if I'm leveraging equity or selling it. When it comes time for property tax valuations I want the value to be as low as possible.

Nice. Been making videos about the same thing with first key here in Texas

There is another way of looking at this. The "value" has not dropped, "they overpaid". You could be polite and say they miscalculated because rates were kept too low for too long.

Outstanding content, Nick. Thank you.

You’re absolutely right! They’re selling off like crazy in upstate New York. I was on Zillow last night and was looking in the area and noticed how First Key Homes was just standing out with all the inventory they’re were selling. Bullseye! ❤

Thanks for the update and keep doing what you do. My journey in the current market has taught me a lot of lessons, at the top of that list is that it never pays to live above one's means. I have managed to grow a nest egg of around $600k to a decent 7 figures in the space of a few months. Sad to say but a lot of us have poor money management skills. My 2 cents -get an advisor to keep you accountable and aid you make better decisions, Linda Wilburn has been helping me a lot, all through my journey. I find it better to pay a little bit more for peace of mind than worry about money or market trends and still get >burned.

Texas inventory way up. They're still way overpriced though. No denying it anymore. Nobody is dumb enough to pay these prices at these rates though.

I live in Indian River County, FL - inventory up 72% and I'm seeing new developments still being built.

Florida Native here. Our real estate is regional as to what values will be. It's regional as to climate as well. South of St Petersburg or Vero will get less of a cool season than St Pete and North. The big money is Palm Beach to Miami along the coast/beachside communities. Then it looks like beachside Sarasota has gone way up. As well as Beach Side Bradenton. Beachside Pinellas County (St Pete Beach, Treasure Island, Madeira, Reddington, Indian Rocks, Clearwater are big money now too. Beach and inland towns to the Pinellas County will hold their value at a plateau at worst or continue to go up in value. The reason is they are all 15-30min towns without anymore room to build. Pinellas is a peninsula with a great infrastructure of parks, schools, pro sports, restaurants, night life, beaches, and safe to live compared to what's going on in the rest of the country. And all Pinellas County towns are 15-30 min to Tampa. Tampa is along the bay with some high dollar homes and suburbs as well. I think Tampa is a bit overpriced and too far from beaches for the money. This video on Punta Gorda... That area has never developed and was trying to grow and become something. The values on the barrier island beaches will still go up or plateau as there isn't anywhere else to build. But off the beaches in Bradenton, Sarasota, Port Charlotte area, Ft Myers, and Naples will not gain for a while and might even be where the drop will occur as they all have plenty of land to continue building inland off the barrier island beaches and the infrastructure started many decades after Tampa/Clearwater/St Pete. You'll find a similar pattern in value on the East Coast as well. Beachside towns will hold, plateau at worst, or continue to rise as there is no more land... but inland will be the risk. Now some of the large acreage for ranching, agriculture, or just country living will most likely hold or plateau at worst as those types of real estate have become harder to find and are in high demand. So if you want a good beachside deal, look to the Panhandle of Florida. But fair warning, that's where more hurricanes hit. So you must build with that in mind. They build ports in the ground floor garage to let the water flow through. Double up on all rebar and strapping, Go solid block to the roof... pour fiber mesh concrete into all walls. Build a hip roof with a 4-12 pitch and put metal roof with fasteners around the hips every 3" and double strap all rafter/trusses. Definite on impact windows. And your home would withstand 165 mph storms... I've built a few but now just building my own. There you go from a Florida native... Don't be afraid... The sky isn't falling here... it's just sunshine and rainbows. ✌😎

Did you hear about the scam The homebuilders are doing where they’re putting sold on every other house and then when people move in they say the deal fell through and it’s back on the market?

Many people are trying to get out of condos in FL, so I'm expecting the demand for single family homes to still be there in most areas.

Thank you for sharing the information !

In my community in West Palm Beach there are 51 homes for sale. Many aren’t even getting showings. A settlement company closing agent said, “bank appraisals are coming in lower than market values” . This will be the start of a snowball effect. Thanks Nick for the great content.

One house, mentioned in two videos. Give us more examples.

My niche right now is new construction, due to the better insulation impacts from insurance skyrocketing here in Florida. I'm seeing the same thing here in central Florida/Orlando metro. Inventory is shooting up as new construction is being put up. The thing that I hear from some reps, is that they have pulled permits to go out for the next couple of years. In my last market update, I let people know that I expect inventory to continue to rise throughout the rest of this year, regardless of the selling season. New listings will of course fall but not to the level of normal season. Im guessing that we will start seeing negative YOY numbers starting next year, IF they don't fix the insurance issues here and I don't see how they're going to stop hurricanes and tornadoes from developing. DeSantis came out and said that Citizens is going to be insolvent when another major storm hits. I'm personally not buying anything until probably 2026/2028.

great video! i live in south florida but i frequent sw fl quite often, especially in the summer.

Since home prices are belly up and there is no way to lower interest due to exploding inflation. There is no way people can afford these overprice houses.

I wouldn't be surprised if they are listing their homes at firesale prices in order for other owners to have to do the same and then sweep in and buy those homes too, at a steep discount.

Im Here in FL Renting since 2012 and I try buy a House for me and My Family of 7 , budget in 2012 was 250k, them 2020 350k now Im forced to buy a 500k same house because this Invitation Homes, First Key, Progress got all the houses from my area.

I’ve been looking into buying in the north port area, and I decided on waiting thanks to your videos ❤️

Love the content!

Good content. Not just a RU-vid hustler walking the streets shouting "the sky is falling"

Great! I’ve been stacking cash, waiting for the downturn. By the way, that Punta Gorda neighborhood has crap infrastructure: no underground stormwater drains and presence of overhead electrical poles that get strapped like toothpicks when the last hurricane hit there.

Happy Days!!! Been waiting for this for 3.5 years!!! Great job Nick! Presentations keep getting better and better!

Institutional investors are the prime reason.. my brother bought a new home in a new community and even before he got the keys, he was approached by Chinese and local institutional investors whether he is willing to sell the home to them for a premium price ..

This is an Wall Street Investor Engineered Crash😮😮😮

Just saw a 950 square foot house sell for 350k outside Asheville, NC. Apparently my market hasn't gotten the message.

That website is crazy. $40 a month to look at some numbers? Wild

Bring on a 9% unsold inventory. Prices fall like a rock after that is reached!

If you are an investor and you overpay...oh well. If you look at the normal slope of the line the house value should only be worth $275,000. When the buyer bought in 22' the house was really worth $230,000. The idiot paid $445,000. Don't buy during bubbles they always burst.

It's not that the builders are abandoning the houses, they're abandoning the buyers. I've had 2 duplexes with two separate builders that I signed 3 years ago, still not done. They take your deposit/draw payment, and then it sits. Beware new builders in FL, it's a lawsuit waiting to happen

Great research; please keep it up. The drop is about 10% from peak. Let’s wait for another 30% from today’s prices.

What about rentals? They are very high and with for sale housing to expensive are renters going to survive? In California rents are outrageous!

Wise people have to sell before the next gigantic hurricane hits and insurance triples once again.

Great info.! How I would love to see you taking a good look at Palm Coast, FL. 👍

Great info! I just checked two zip codes in AZ 85212 for sale inventory 25 in 2021 to 199 in 2024. Queen Creek 86 for sale to 341 this year. I feel even more confident in my decision to hold off buying till prices come down.

I think it's so darn funny at this point. Oh 08 will never happen again... ok bro right.. haha. History ALWAYS repeats itself. The smart money is sitting on the side just waiting it out. I know we want out of Florida but figure let's wait it out. We wanted to get a new minivan and said nope with the outrageous prices. We are just gonna wait a year or two at this point. The crash will be epic!! The investors don't want it because they are gonna lose a ton but they will quietly pull all of their money out while having you invest yours so you take the massive loss.

Hate it for my equity, but hope it can improve circumstances for next generation of homeowners Made it thru GFC drop in FL...will weather this as well.

Nick great post! I agree with most of what you're saying, except it is going to be much worse than 2008. It will not take a year or 24 this to come about your idea about Mommy pop investors seeing their home prices being reduced significantly It's already making them panic. Right now, many mom and pop investors have taken their homes from B&B and are trying to rent them for absorbent prices.And they are not getting it, they're in my area.I see them panicking. And the result is them lowering Long term rent much lower then they expected. Fact! Your idea that values of their homes going down affecting them is very insightful and not something I thought of. Appreciate your effort all the work that you do for us. Great job!

Great information. Sucks for investors but they’re the reason that home prices have been over valued by 40% and the average home buyer was priced out of the market. This will be a a major factor for the fed to start dropping interest rates so the mortgage industry can get back to normal and people can start to afford to buy houses again. 👏🏽👏🏽👏🏽

fear a housing crash due to people buying homes above asking prices with little equity. If prices drop, affordability and potential foreclosures may arise, worsened by future layoffs and rising living costs. I want to invest more than $300k, but I'm not sure on how to mitigate risk.

Great work Nick-boots on the ground data, no BS. I love reading the comments related to people advocating that there will never be an adjustment in the market and home prices will always go up. Fear is beggining to hit sellers and owners. "This isnt 2008- its different this time, nobody will sell that has low rates, when the pivot comes prices will go even higher, job losses really cant happen because of marketplace demands, technically the stock market will only have an adjustment, its looking more like a soft landing." Nope, nope, nope, nope and nope. Sorry the laws of physics confirm what goes up will come down and we are in the 100 year cycle. This one is gonna be the mother of all crashes for bubbles within bubbles of bubbles and the 35 trillion dollar American debt bomb that they keep hidden while smiling. Cant wait till after the election when the glue comes off the financial system and banking scams.

i thought I recognized that house in Punta Gorda! I was looking at it yesterday, so crazy!

You're spot on for saying no all areas are the same

If the housing market collapses and all houses lose 50% of their value, that would only mean that the housing market is valued on par with the market in 2019. I doubt we will see houses fall back to 2011 levels.

*Amazing video, you work for 40yrs to have $1M in your retirement, meanwhile some people are putting just $10K into trading from just few months ago and now they are multimillionaires*

I live outside Austin. I went and looked at the Zestimate for where I live, it's not gone down. What I can say is there are 3 houses with for sale signs on my street, none show up on zillow.

Great Video, data, and boots on the ground research!!

1/2 hr north of NYC..every home has a bidding war

Not the first time Zillow appeared to be manipulating house prices.