The thing is, 6 months ago Trump was solidly going to win. Three months ago Trump was ahead and looked like he would get elected to non-consecutive terms. Since the conviction Biden has pulled even. In all the battleground states the gap has closed. In essence Biden has the momentum and is trending towards pulling ahead. If he performs well tonight, I suspect that in another couple of week the polls will show him ahead by a point or so, instead of even, and he will increase his lead on the rust belt states that are essential to his re-election.
I’m of the opinion that the debates will do incredibly little to shift the polls… besides we’re talking about maybe 100,000 people over 5 states who somehow not made up their minds at this late stage. I would be surprised to see more than a 1% shift either way because the narratives being presented by both information silos keep people in their lane with confirmation bias.
I wonder what the long term impact will be? Assuming there are riots at the Democratic Convention in Chicago over Palestine, this might not matter all that much.
The polls can't predict a strong "coming home" moment for many progressives that are strongly disapproving of Bidens actions but are very politically active and very likely to vote his way in November.
Every single debate is the greatest one in the history of America just like every single presidential race is the most important one we’ve ever ever had
So Biden's voters in 2024 seem to be a lot less enthusiastic. I think only 15% of voters are "very enthusiastic" to vote for Biden while 40% of voters are "very enthusiastic" to vote for Trump. That means Biden's voters may be less likely to pick up the phone and declare they will vote for Biden. But just because they are not enthusiastic enough to vote for Biden they are still enthusiastic enough to vote for Biden. So the polls might be underestimating Biden. However, Trump has told his voters that the media and the polls are rigged and so his voters might not answer the polls. But they might still vote.
Not close as you’re stating. Nate Silver nailed it. If popular vote is close, that’s bad news for Biden. It means Trump’s doing well in the 6-7 swing states, which he has been all year.
Explain how Trump would have more support? He has lost support over the past 4 years. Using this logic Biden would win because he already won last time. This is because of the polarized modern politics. Traditional polling is meangles in modern times. Trump will lose. This is not a coin toss. In fact NEW polling said Biden is ahead after Trump got convicted. So that kind of contradicts your point. Stop taking Trump seriously. He is a clown and evil. Stop acting like this is normal debate and giving human trash cedability.
Are you blind? Did you not see the polling immediately after the State of the Union speech? What about the Fox News poll that had Biden ahead by 2% THIS WEEK? What about the "Keys" to the White House that have correctly predicted the results of the last 11 elections, which favour Biden? What about the incumbency advantage, the booming labour market, growing economy and the stock market at all time highs? Far more importantly...what about the truly independent voters that are very hard to poll so far before an election, but who seem likely to heavily favour Biden? Enjoy your fantasy...I don't expect it to last long.
Incumbent tend to win, because people get to see a president talk all the time with a normal president. With this president, all you see is how he slips, I am not sure being an Incumbent work for him.
@@krombopulos_michael but the data is so lame that because biden is an Incumbent, therefore he will win. On the other hand, Trump in a way is an incumbent that is 4 years ago.
@@coltafanan yet they didn’t say that when Trump was president they would always bring up sub groups and say they are not doing well. Just want some consistency because when it’s Biden it’s just always a blanket statement
@@krombopulos_michael yet they didn’t say that when Trump was president they would always bring up sub groups and say they are not doing well. Just want some consistency because when it’s Biden it’s just always a blanket statement
No shit its a toss up? You don't say? That means its down to turn out prior to and on election day. Well here's why that's a good thing. Trump has finally caught up in fund raising but hasn't in spending. He doesn't have the county by county infrastructure built up. He's taken over the RNC and now he's turned the GOP's entire turn out machine over to Turning Points USA, run by Charlie Kirk, who has zero record of success in this arena, in fact the only time they've tried to run a ground game was in Arizona, where they lost Kari Lake the election. So if its down to turn out, I put the weight on the Obama and Biden turn out machine, the early and mail in balloting to carry the day. And you should too because the Trump campaign has a complete dog crap turn out operation.
Whyyyyyy dont you have the full podcast on youtube??? Why do i have to go find another media stream? Love you guys but really enjoy you on youtube only.
Joe Biden and Democratic National Committee platform position on immigration during the 2020 election. “Democrats will continue to work toward comprehensive immigration reform that fixes our nation's broken immigration system, improves border security, prioritizes enforcement so we are targeting criminals - not families, keeps families together, and strengthens our economy.” _______________________________________________________________ I guess it was America’s fault that we misunderstood. What they (Democrats) really meant to say was: “We are going to have an “open border” and allow into America 10 million “illegal strangers”, plus a large amount of fentanyl, which will annually kill 75,000 young Americans. 300,000 families will bury their children in the next 4 years. We (Democrats) have no plan on how to assimilate these strangers into our nation's schools, health system, job training programs, learning English as a second language, affordable housing etc., so we will let the 50 states, cities, and communities figure that one out. Taxpayer money is available to get “illegals” into the country, but we (Democrats) have no money or plan on how to support them until they can manage for themselves. So we (Democrats) will let the states, cities , and communities use their state money, energy, and time to also figure that one out also.” Wow - I must have missed something when I first read the Democratic platform on immigration. I think we could call it fake promises. Sounds good, but falls short. "Pay close attention to what Joe Biden and Kamala Harris do or do not do regarding America's immigration policy; their actions will reveal everything you need to know." Is America's immigration policy better now than it was four years ago?
AI debate California's one step ahead of these guys the governor gave a pre-recorded CGI de facto artificial intelligence state to state of the union address and it's basically mocking this 2024 presidential debate between these two candidates that is already pre-recorded and has already been chopped up and will not be live and it's very simplistic to understand that one or perhaps both of the candidates are using performance-enhancing drugs in the sense of it's already been enhanced and giving the candidates or one candidate a lift over the other and that's why they've also been talking about one of the candidates is going to be going against the moderators because maybe one candidate has been left out and he's going to be put in artificially and so they don't know or he doesn't know exactly how they're going to portray him and you can see this being truthful because one of the candidates supposedly has a gag order but it's really just a gag order for everybody involved in this process doing the filming the actors the extras everybody in the know that this is pre-recorded and just basically a show put on for the American people to get eyeball views cuz that generates revenue anyways God bless. I'm real even though I'm talking in this virtual space and my name is Joe and let me know if I can help God bless 🙏🏽🙏🏽❤❤
