Covering Chinese Investments is 'Job Security' for Journalists.
International trade expert Deborah Elms tells Asia-based journalists which stories she thinks are underreported, will be newsy for a decade.
by Hope Kahn, National Press Foundation
In response to a reporter discussing how to interest readers and editors on international trade news, Deborah Elms, head of trade policy at the Hinrich Foundation, countered: “Trade is very sexy,” and at this moment, she said, it’s “more important than ever.”
We’re at a precipice - trade has changed and will continue to.
“Trying to figure out where we go is the big question. … It’s all intertwined security, politics and economics in a way that we didn’t used to have, including here in Asia, and I think that is unsettling,” Elms told NPF’s International Trade Fellows in Singapore. “When people are unsettled, they’re looking for information.”
That’s where journalists come in.
Elms, previous founder and executive director of the Asian Trade Centre, shared her thoughts on which storylines journalists should watch in coming years:
“Washington does not want Chinese inbound investment … So the FDI (foreign direct investment) flows into the U.S. from China, dramatically, has fallen to near zero. And I don’t think that’s going to change. Now, does that mean that you can’t invest? No. You can have all kinds of very creative ways in which Chinese investment into companies [out of other countries],” Elms said, using the high tariff on electric vehicles into the U.S. from China.
“That’s an incentive high enough for you to say, ‘let me figure out some solution to that. Because at 102.5% tariff, I can’t just sit back and export, I need to think about creative solutions to this.'”
But every time China finds a loophole, the U.S. will adjust to close it.
“Because you’re going to have so many of these sneaking through a loophole … there will be stories like this for you guys for probably a decade or more. So as a reporter, keep an eye. Those kinds of stories, probably always going to be in demand.”
“The U.S. does have the luxury of being able to do things that the rest of Asia certainly couldn’t. For a couple reasons, not the least of which, of course, is its size and its strength and domestic economy, and dollar and so forth. But another one is the relative lack of trade the United States has. Because the market is so big, and because it is so diversified, the amount of the U.S. economy that is reliant on trade is actually relatively small.”
For instance, roughly 300% of Singapore’s GDP is reflected in trade, compared to about 30% for the U.S., Elms said.
“That means that there could be massive disruption in trade from the U.S. perspective, and the damage would be not great, but it wouldn’t be as catastrophic… One of the reasons why you can put up with real changes in the trade space for the U.S. is because it’s more isolated than other markets from trade flows, in a way that I don’t think gets reported out enough.”
As the World Trade Organization struggles, the development of the “middle power strategy” is beginning to play out.
“New Zealand, Australia, Japan… Canada, trying to sort out, what solutions could we come up with? What kinds of approach could we follow that might get us where we want to go? What does that look like?” Elms said. “So far we don’t have an answer … [and] it leaves especially developing countries and least developed countries really screwed, honestly.”
“I think we’re going to see more of these kinds of stories, honestly. Because again, as the system starts to disintegrate, the challenges that puts up are going to be found in locations you might not have thought of.”
Speaker: Deborah Elms, Head of Trade Policy, Hinrich Foundation
Transcript, summary and resources here: nationalpress.org/topic/debor...
This fellowship is part of an ongoing program of journalism training and awards for trade coverage sponsored by the Hinrich Foundation.
www.hinrichfoundation.com/
This video was produced within the Evelyn Y. Davis studios. NPF is solely responsible for the content.
23 июн 2024
