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I am with you in this.. These self-loving programming obsessed maniacs think that this profession will outlive for eternity. Just wait in the next 3 - 5 years and Programmers will be shedding tears like a woman shed blood during her Menstrual cycles. And even if Programming won't be replaced completely, it will become an ordinary job givng a Crappier pay in the end just like your average Office IT Technician Job because everyone will be programming and I mean Automated Programming.@@OnigoroshiZero
Remember how everyone lamented that self-driving cars would be the norm in a few years, 4 years ago? We all see how that failed. I'm betting that the problems with AI are going to come the fore in the next couple of years and it, too, will become less spoken of the way self driving car technology is now
The current generation of AI will not replace programmers any time soon. I've used AI professionally and I'm not really impressed. AI is good for generating boilerplate, automating repetitive tasks, and giving you a good skeleton for your programs. Other than that, I think there's still a long way for AI to go. Programmers will exist, but the barrier of entry will be much higher, they will also be required to have the analytical capability to detect AI induced bugs or potential inefficiencies, because AI generated code, as it stands now, is only as good as your prompt and the dataset it's trained with. Let's not get carried away with this.
Agree. The current situation is nothing to worry about. The issue however, is that we may reach a point, relatively soon, where AI is able to generate entire projects at ~100% success rate. I don't think it has much to do with getting carried away, this is a valid hypothesis. If this happens, the skills needed to program will shift drastically, and traditional programming skills (i.e. actually typing/writing programs yourself) may become irrelevant for the *majority* of programming jobs. IMO, we've already observed this (to a small degree) before the recent introduction of AI-driven programming. For example, your average programmer nowadays probably doesn't know as much about computer science compared to 20 years ago. Even today, some jobs which use to require programming/technical skills now require very little thanks to automation and standardized graphical interfaces (e.g. cybersecurity).
@@stevenheron1 Depends on how you define "soon". I would consider 10 years as soon seeing as how the average career is 30 years and lifetime is ~80 years. That's just my prediction. I don't think anyone truly knows how fast/far it will grow from here, but its widespread adoption in the market can only increase the rate of innovation. Seeing as how there are already coding-focused AI's on the market, and project scaffolding is already possible, I def think I'll see this happen in my lifetime. I've spent a decent amount of time programming (thousands of hours) so I hope I'm wrong.
I can see it continuing to increase productivity via those simple tasks to the point we see even more people struggling to find work, particularly anyone wanting to get into it.
Your argument seems to miss the rapid evolution and potential of AI, exemplified by the sudden rise of ChatGPT, which was obscure just 18 months ago. This underscores the often-underestimated concept of exponential growth in technology. Moreover, traditional programming can’t predict every possible input scenario, making it limited for real-world applications. This is where deep learning excels, as it autonomously detects patterns without needing predefined scenarios. Lastly, the potential of AI may extend beyond human capabilities, including creativity. Given that consciousness in humans emerges from complex neural networks, a similar phenomenon might one day be possible in AI.
on the contrary: 1) Books -> make it easier to read how to program , 2) Internet -> find information online and chat/forums 3) Stackoverflow -> find any solution to any problem 4) ChatGPT -> assistent to find any solution - So what happened? we got even more programmers from 1 to 5 :) The more help we get with programming the easier and accessible it gets to learn and do stuff. AI will never write new code with new ideas, but it can help turbo boost all other tasks
wow this video is extremely insightful! these are things I've thought about an absolute ton as a limited programmer who does the architecture type work defined. this video conveys those thoughts very well.
See you in 5 years when we will be discussing if programmers will be around for another 5 years. The progress we have made is due to hardware, AI will never be good enough to replace programmers until we have quantum computing. The deep learning algorithms just have way too much to work out before we're at the point AI is good enough to replace humans at a high logic job like programming. replacing ops first is far more feasible.
So tired of the phrase "There will be no programmers in 5 years" or "Is it still worth learning how to code". The question is how does the job as a programmer will look like in 5 years. Of course there will be programmers in 5, 10 or even 20 years but it will most likely not be same. And this was happening over the past 60 years. What did the assembler programmers told the higher language guys decades ago? Kind of the same discussion.
Where AI can help is combining programming knowledge with industry knowledge. For example, writing a program for financial trading requires reliable code based upon the working practices of trading.
back then farmers with tractors replaced farmers without. This time it will be programmers with ai skills who will replace programmers without. This will go on and on until there are just a few programmers left working on software architecture
@@simplygoodbusiness who works on the AI? another AI? Who works on that AI? Oh right, another AI. Its simply bullshit to believe that all programmers will be replaced by AI.
@@simplygoodbusiness Tractors were never intended to replace the intelligence of the farmer. The whole goal of AI is to make something that is more intelligent than human beings. Its not just a tool. We should reject that goal because human beings draw most of their self-worth out of the skills they posess and the value they contribute to society. If AI will be more intelligent than human beings in every way, that self-worth will be gone. Humanity will suffer an existential crisis. The effects will be devastating if we will will accomplish this. It is immoral to work on making AI more advanced. But humanity won't stop because there is loads of money to be made. Our only hope is that the current approach of AI development is not sufficient for replacing human intelligence entirely. But even if we are just able to replace more simple jobs, who is gonna tell the people that work these more simple jobs that the skills they learned and all their experience is now completely useless? People just don't know what they are into with this whole AI stuff. Comparing it to old "non-intelligent" technology does not really make for a good argument in my opinion.
In this video, it seems we're actually debating whether programmers will be replaced by other programmers. So, what's programming? It's conveying instructions to machines in human-friendly language. Indeed, when we work with ChatGPT, we're essentially 'programming' (or some might say, 'prompt engineering'). We provide high-level instructions, for example to ChatGPT, and then we tweak the output (more concise code) to meet our requirements. The output from ChatGPT is further converted into the lowest level code (binary) for execution - just different levels of abstraction at play. With this understanding, we can say that there will always be programmers as long as we need to instruct machines.
Yes but you need 1 programmer to build an entire app, it’s fair to say 99.99% of programmers will cease to exist. Also, why even code human readable code, when ai can just develop machine code
We are always moving up in the abstraction layer. This is all that is going right now. Yeah, there will be no people coding javascript but something more complex with fuzzy relationships will replace that. And you will need a human for it.
plus... we don't talk about this..but the need to code/configure things is growing and continues to grow exponentially... robots, integrations, web site, apps, etc... the fact that we have AI tools actually lowers the burden but the fact is that the needs for software has grown dramatically. There will never be a shortage of needs for software developers, the job just may look a bit different.
@@gLitCheRR44 If this is the scenario that happens, the typical programming job could become something like a factory job is now regarding payment and skill requirements.
People saying there will be no more programmers, have not seen real programs for sure, or been against very huge systems. Man, do we need to tell them COBOL is still running a huge part of world IT ? PHP has not been replaced yet, emails can't show HTML properly, and offshoring developments in India have had so many failures. AI is just another attempt to offshore dev, spoiler : it does not work well, because what you need is not just code or tech, AI is just quicker India offshore emulation. You need someone in between your needs and who knows what to implement, it will always be difficult because it is human specific skills combined with actual programming / architecture skills. People want to pay less tech people, but hell, many middle management things cost so much and don't generate that much value compared to IT, I won't be surprised if they get challenged by AI before AI reaches IT, it has always been the path, that is why CTO is so important now compared to 20 years ago, maybe there will be a Chief AI Operative now? Tech replaces everything but one thing, it of course doesn't suppress tech people.
@@peterdern3764 Easy, like always. You just have to have skill to ask right questions. If can ask right questions, you basically cannot fail in life. Muh...
These predictions are ridiculous. When I code I often find the data and tables don’t even exist to work off of. Or the tables have loads of errors. And then requirements keep changing or are “eh maybe this or maybe that”. Not sure a robot does this stuff
There will be no Project Managers, Directors of VP's in 5 years! All they do is sit in meeting all day and talk. Talk is cheap, ChatGPT will replace them and programmers will run their own companies and rule the world!
my thoughts are the same, you will need programming knowledge to be able to use AI in a proper way in a particular field (programmers, accountants, etc.), at least in the near future; maybe later even an amateur will be able to, by using common language, tell AI what he/she needs, but that's not near future I think; and also, jobs will simply change/evolve; similar to the jobs like: youtuber, social media specialist; there were no jobs like that over 10 years ago; I think it will be similar with AI
Three months ago I decided to learn how to code....and then I started coming across videos like these. If it wasn't for the fact that I actually enjoy doing it now, I probably would have just quit already. I decided to try Webdev to start with and it sounds like by the time I'm good enough to get a job...there won't really be as many out there, so then i'll have to learn a new language/skill only for that to possibly not be there by the time I'm good at that too. Its just frustrating. I'm sticking with it though for the time being and just keeping my eyes open to whats going on and what to expect. Is Webdev even something someone, going in to 2024, should even waste their time on anymore?
go for it, webdev is going to be a thing for at least 3-4 years more, and throughout this time build your own products and try to sell them if you enjoy coding
Bro web dev jobs will be around for a long time. Chatgpt and copilot will be a tool to help you get ur work done but it won't replace devs anytime soon.
Yep, but as you continue learning, also think along these lines. How can i leverage these new tools to 1. Speed up my learning 2. Deliver more value to my clients/company Code is a tool. What's the problem you're solving via that tool? Focus on that and you'll be less worried about newer/better tools coming out.
Programming is as much about communicating and understanding what needs to be coded as writing the code itself. It's a difficult task to understand the requirements of a non-technical person and translate that into software. If AI is able to do that translation then it understands humans at a very fundamental level. So much so that programmers won't be the only job going away. The translation from requirements to application in software is very precise. Many times customers will give you requirements that conflict with each other or don't make sense. The AI will have to understand when the person is asking for something that doesn't make sense in a specific scenario or breaks some kind of regulation / policy that the company enforces. Anything is possible, but there's a long way from generating a few functions to writing complete applications with all the edge cases, security requirements, workflows, and integrations that most meaningful apps have.
This is what i've been thinking about. Some people just hate programming specifically so they think that that's the first thing humans lose to AI. AI will eventually replace most people in all fields. When, I don't know. But it won't be 5 years.
Here's a great study showing why we could be right with the hypothesis that there will be no programmers in 5 years: When Italy banned Chat-GPT, the productivity of coders in the country fell by 50% before recovering. See here arxiv.org/pdf/2304.09339.pdf
Anyone who says there will be no programmers in 5 years has never programmed. They don't know that it's not enough to write code, they need to maintain it, deliver it, work with loads, scaling, work with dependencies, databases, security. Update the infrastructure: languages, frameworks, technologies. A program can be 100 million lines of code with all the dependencies, libraries, etc. You can just tell ChatGPT to create a new version of Java, Python, Node.js, a new Linux kernel. To write a new Windows, ChatGPT should at least have a context of 10000000 pages, not 300 pages as it is now.
@@hafizmuhammadtalhasiddique7432 The video's title, "There will be no programmers in 5 years," is misleading. The notion that programmers will become obsolete is fundamentally flawed. ChatGPT, for instance, is incapable of independently developing the entirety of Google's infrastructure, along with its vast array of libraries and tools.
LLMs will eliminate the need for many, if not all, types of applications. Once LLMs can interact directly with base services and devices, why do we need programmers?
I came from the future, and this man were right, Ai did not replace programmers, It started with people using ai replacing people that never used it. Then, it decided to be independent....
@@PepeCoinMania I work for an IT company with 5000 people. 90% of developers use ChatGPT, the ones that don't use it are much slower and less efficient. Who would you hire, someone who knows how to use AI to be a more efficient programmer or someone who's never used it. Companies I talk to hire fewer marketing people and fewer programmers now. It's already starting.
@@simplygoodbusiness Based on your last answer, it seems you like working using ai, why are you afraid of dependency of ai by people ? In the end of the day, everybody will needs use it.
maybe no programmers in some future, but software developers still will be needed. There is lot of other topics/areas in SW Development (Hosting, Security, Data optimazing, Performance, Arhitecture overall,...), so NO. The whole topic remainds me in the early days when Wordpress and other CMS came, they say why you still learn javascript, its useless...sure...
Chat gtp is going into direction of the star trek TNG computer. Developers will be still around just we will have better tools that are more integrated and solve, find problems that would take us days and weeks sometimes months to solve now pretty fast.
I believe the title of the video can be tweaked to be more accurate. Instead of: “There will be no programmers in 5 years” it should be “There will be no programMING in 5 years or less.” Peter Dern entirely misses the point of this. Results and solutions will be directly generated by LLMs. There *is* no programming. ‘Languages’ will be irrelevant. We’re not there yet but soon will be.
Lmao "we're gonna have flying cars year 2000!" "We're going to live in the sky with robots in 2022." "Gas will not longer be an issue by mid-2020s".. now "Programming, the very thing used to create AI in the first place, will no longer be a thing in 5 years because of AI".. Keep it up though. It really helps weed out some people.
i've been a swe for 4 years not including interns and co-ops. worked at amz, cox, and now dod. more like trying to convince others ig but idk where ur going with this one lol
The advancements in AI didn't just happen in the last 6 months. What we have now are the culmination of several decades of research and technological advancements across multiple fields. The concepts behind AI are very old. Hardware and information have always been the main bottlenecks. The most powerful AIs are already pushing the limits of what's possible with the current hardware and information available. We have reached another bottleneck, and the progress of AI from now will be much slower from what we've seen in the last several months. So unless someone manages to invent and mass produce quantum computers in the next 5 years, developers are here to stay.
when you say "The most powerful AIs are already pushing the limits of what's possible with the current hardware and information available. " how do you know that ?
Yes, but widespread adoption and introduction into the market (competition) may further drive progress. So I don't think it's that simple. I suppose we shall se where we're at in 10 years.
Sadly most programmers seem to miss the rapid evolution and potential of AI, exemplified by the sudden rise of ChatGPT, which was obscure just 18 months ago. This underscores the often-underestimated concept of exponential growth in technology. Moreover, traditional programming can’t predict every possible input scenario, making it limited for real-world applications. This is where deep learning excels, as it autonomously detects patterns without needing predefined scenarios. Lastly, the potential of AI may extend beyond human capabilities, including creativity. Given that consciousness in humans emerges from complex neural networks, a similar phenomenon might one day be possible in AI.
yep thats what i am scared of. All the influencers are saying dont be worried but man this AI thing is growing exponentially like e^x function in next 2-3 years the growth will be equivalent to 50 years of what we are thinking
Exactly, I can't stand a single more opinion that simply takes the current situation as standard and doesn't see the expo curve. @@harshvardhansankpal716
@@harshvardhansankpal716 Have you been born 1996? It is the same year the sheep dolly was born. Despite all these newspaper articles I have never encountered a clone. By the way ChatGPT is not that impressive. It still gives a lot of wrong information and it cannot even play chess properly.
Wrong question. Of course there will be SOME programmers in 5 years. Better question is HOW MANY? ie what % of current programming jobs will disappear in 5 years? Even if its "ONLY" 25%, then that will be devastating for the volume of employment supported by the industry. Right now software development is incredibly saturated. That's only going to get worse. Conclusion: unless you are established or incredibly talented & fanatical, its probably best to find a different career.
I used to think these claims were true, until I started learning how to program. Now I can confidently say this is not true. Abstractions will come but creating logic and algorithms will never ever go away.
@@zachanator2011 computers execute logic, but computers need programmers to explain that logic to the computer. That literally what a programmer does and has ever did. The day computers can create logic all on their own, without input from a person, not only will a programmer's job go away but all jobs in existence will go away. But until we reach that point, there always has to be someone to tell the computer what exactly to do regardless of how many abstractions are created. Even now, with chatgpt, someone has to explain a program's logic to chatgpt for it to construct something and even then, whatever it constructs, its creations have a limit in complexity at which point it gets riddled in bugs (which the programmer still has to explain to the AI on how to clear it up). AI to programmers, in the end of the day is still an abstraction and thanks to AI, developers will now be able to solve bigger, more complex, problems. We still have a long way to go until programmers are no longer needed.
The claims are true. The new tools are removing the need for those strong technical skills. Most applications for business aren’t that complex and a lot of tools are already siloed. Those massive teams of software engineers and data scientists are going away. It’ll be down to a handful of people.
AI in the field of computer science is like a shark in the ocean. It is their domain. It won't eradicate every coder job, but definitely junior and even mid level positions will be wiped out. AI will keep evolving and become sufficient enough to the point like manufacturing where you have only people managing robots on the assembly line. Programmer jobs will definitely shrink with the advent of AI and this is 100% certain, but how much it will shrink remains to be seen, but there is definitely the driving force to advance AI in this direction because programmer salaries are high and companies will save a lot of money.
you need the senior to manage the AI. It will be like a few humans managing robots on an assembly line. Just like how senior manage juniors lol. Companies will need seniors because of their expertise when stuff goes wrong. What you said makes no sense. Seniors are needed to manage juniors and AI. With AI, what will happen for certain is junior positions will shrink probably to the point of eradication if the AI gets good enough
At the moment all the AI tools are free, that ain't gonna last. Consequently, experienced developers will still be needed to set SMART budgets. Joey from the post room ain't gonna cut it.
I love how people are making predictions about AI for decades now and most of those predictions were wrong. I am not saying there won't be progress, but I think this whole video is clickbait. Will AI replace everyone at some point? Probably. Will this process take 5 years, 50, 150? It will take as long as it takes. We do not know.
is simple machine learning engineers are the future of programing. there is no AI without sourcing quality data for any purpose. you need to learn to think not only be a code monkey.
Everyone in the comments is in denial about the reality, which is weird because most people in tech are very rational and logical. Think of how fast technology advances, and have a plan, instead of trying to convince yourself that programmers will forever be needed.
This is absolutely nonsense. AI is not even remotely close to replacing programmers, current generation artificial intelligence is quite uncompleted, makes mistakes and sometimes produces quite complicated and inefficient algorithms.
These are all the same BS lines that "AI will take over everything!" I heard about "all dev jobs will be outsourced to India!" in the 2000s. It was BS then, and its BS now.
Not necessarily. some jobs require general purpose robots that can learn and be super skillful and problem solving in the real world to be replaced and I'm sure cost of making that robot and maintaining it is much more than humans. Let's say gimme a plumber AI or a mechanic. Actually programmers are easier to replace than most people think. but I don't think they will be replaced anytime soon.
@@mindurownbussines i said if, if statement (cost of making that robot and maintaining it is much more than humans.) No They can work at a constant speed with no breaks, days off, or holiday time no salary no insurance no tax Robots produce more accurate and high quality work and rarely make mistakes and are more precise than human workers. They can produce a greater quantity in a short amount of time.
@@otherego8365 You didn't pay attention to my point. Making robots that can do manual skilled tasks that need actual thinking like plumbing, car repair , nursing , etc. requires years of research , hardware and funding. We are nowhere near that. nowadays robots don't have a brain my man. it's just statistical inference and probabilities. they can't figure out shit without imitating. not even Tesla is close to make a multi-purpose robot that can be released in the wild before they reach trustable AGI.
I questions How are you going to describe to AI, make me a software with 100 parameters etc etc. It seems kind of.. wishful thinking. Question is about our language and information systems.. How are we describing IT to the AI. I see a lot of errors waiting to happen. Use AI as a tool to get from A to B faster? Absolutely.. but AI being this creative entity, putting things together from scratch.. I suspect.. It might take years to get there. Just as a caution. AI makes gross mistakes in basic and fundamental facts. AI needs to have a better sense of understanding of the information it describes. Example: I did a query about the most powerful diesel engines produced and it gave results for gasoline cars. It does not really understand intrinsic details of the object its describing. I find this to be fundamental problem here.
When we reach the point that AI replaces experienced senior devs, most of other human jobs have been replaced anyways. The programmers that are getting replaced soon are the code monkeys who don't think and just put together simple code. Entry level programming jobs are on the line. This could lead to the actual experts receiving even more work (AI-boosted of course) due to the lack of available experts in the future.
I'll give it 3 years for almost everyone except the very best of the very best which will probably last 1-2 years more. At this point GPT-4 with Code Interpreter is better than almost every Junior developer with less than 3 years of experience, and it is also vastly faster than any human developer that has ever lived.
Except for the fact that chat gpt can't code worth shit. Try giving it a massive code base and getting it to debug and then write maintainable and executable code for that bug.
@@jayocaine2946 It will get there. AI in the field of computer science is like a shark in the ocean. It is their domain. It won't eradicate every coder job, but definitely junior and even mid level positions will be wiped out.
@@stevenheron1 Job roles will change due to AI and employers will make it work because they won't have to pay the high salaries. And I wouldn't be so optimistic that it is far off.
I wouldn't say it exactly like that. I would say "programmers making AI to reduce the overall amount of programmers needed". And not only programmers. In the first wave, it will be other white-collar jobs that are going to be reduced in number. Example: We will still need attorneys. But we will need much less of them. Like in the good old days of manufacturing, when automation and robots killed many jobs on the shop floor. Today, there are still people working in the production lines, but they do more of an overseeing function, are differently qualified, and are only a few. It is not AI that will take someone's job. It is another person using AI that will take someone else's job. In the past, we always had an overall job-creating effect with new technologies, which replaced a ton of jobs in a certain domain. The balance was positive as the jobs cut were rather on the "lower end" of the dimension of human cognitive skills and the new technologies opened the door for jobs on the "higher end" of that dimension. There are many people out there who are really concerned that this time things will be different.
@@peterdern3764 It is easy to say these things but the reality is that most automation/technological progress in our society does not result in benefits for the lower classes in comparison to the destruction it brings. For instance look at the United Kingdom's economy being eviscerated after their industrial jobs were done away with in the 70s/80s/90s. Their real earnings have been declining for several decades as only tech and finance jobs are there to replace them. Once finance and tech jobs are gone they will be entirely at the mercy of an elite class that has shown they do not care for the masses time and again. This has also been shown by the growing disconnect between efficiency/corporate profit and real wages in the United States, real wages have no increased for something like 20-40 years depending on your source, while we have become much more efficient and see record corporate profits. AI is unique in that it threatens to primarily replace some of the highest earning jobs with the best work life balance, white collar jobs. If these jobs were to disappear, it is unlikely the remaining blue collar jobs would become much better. The United States and United Kingdom have still not recovered from the destruction of those factory jobs, it eviscerated the middle class and left them to a fate of retail, food service, etc. which provide much worse compensation and work life balance.
