2018 Kīlauea Eruption: Expected or a Surprise? What Have We Learned? 

Dr. Guoqing Lin2022 RIS/SSA Distinguished Lecturer
Kīlauea volcano in Hawai‘i is one of the most active volcanoes in the world. The U.S.G.S./HVO operates an extensive seismic network to monitor and investigate hazards from active volcanoes and earthquakes on the Island of Hawai‘i. Seismic investigations have considerable potential for addressing key issues regarding the evolution of volcanic and tectonic activity in Hawai‘i. Specifically, what is the relationship between crustal stress changes and past and future seismic and volcanic events? To what extent are stress changes explained by known events and how predictive are they of future events? In 2018, Kīlauea experienced its largest Lower East Rift Zone eruption and caldera collapse in the past 200 years. This activity provided an unprecedented opportunity for seismologists to investigate the interactions between seismic and magmatic processes and for the general community to learn how seismologists use earthquake data to monitor volcanoes. In this talk, I will present the seismic activity in Kīlauea based on the 33 years of HVO records and focus on the changes in earthquake distribution, seismic wave speeds, and stress field before and after the 2018 eruption. I will also review the geological setting and volcanic activity of Kīlauea volcano along with other volcanoes on the Big Island.