The Whale missing best picture is what really hurts Brendan Fraser’s winning chances. An actor hasn’t won the best lead actor award for a film that missed best picture since Jeff Bridges won for crazy heart. And that was all the way back in 2010.
That's the reason why I'm picking Butler. It's a baity performance in a Best Picture nominee. Farrell was maybe too subtle in Banshees, so Butler it is.
In my eyes, the backlash about Viola Davis and Danielle Deadwyler missing Best Actress is going to help Angela Bassett. Supporting Actress is the only category where a black woman stands to win an acting Oscar, and it's possible that a lot of Academy members will be scared of the backlash the organization will face if that doesn't happen.
I was having the same exact thought. If they give it to Condon, then the only non-white actor winning is Quan (if Yeoh doesn’t pull out the upset over Blanchett) and it’s #OscarsSoWhite all over again. I 100% believe the Deadwyler-Davis snub and ensuing backlash locked it in for Bassett.
Why did Green Book happen if the Academy is afraid of backlash. They evidently do not give a flying f. And arguing that Bassett will only win cause they are scared is insulting to her. Why did she win Globes and Critics Choice? Were they scared of backlash as well? Seriously, actors of color just get disrespected at every corner regardless of how hard they work. How about she deserves it.
@@pb.j.1753 I never said she didn't deserve it (I haven't seen the movie so I can't pass judgement). I am simply speculating the ripple effect this could potentially have in that category. She has clearly been the frontrunner for around a month now, this could just potentially boost her even more.
I'm not getting Power of the Dog vibes, I'm getting Shape of Water vibes. People like it, but we're all like "but it's weird" for one and "remember Green Book/CODA last year" for two, but I think when it comes down to it, obvious frontrunner was obvious.
You all make this movie bigger than it is and man... this kinda pisses me off. I don't wanna sound rude but what kind of messages do you get from EEAAO other than "Family dimension is the most important dimension, family dimension wins because mother and daughter face their mistakes, The End"?
...and to be exact: This Nietzschean nothingness that the daughter is celebrating is something that every teenager had at some point and something that every parent had to endure. This gimmick is REALLY nothing special. Really not.
@@rafearcher7882 Uh, you okay? By obvious frontrunner, I mean obvious frontrunner to win Best Picture, not obvious frontrunner to be best movie of all time. Also, you are not using the word genesis correctly at all.
@@CloseYourBrownEyes It kind of feels like the race is over, because it has all the nominations it needs to win and their won't be a "CODA" surprise because CODA over Power of the Dog was "feel good" over "feel bad", and EEAAO is the "feel good" going up against a lot of "feel bads". I did mess up the comparison to Shape of Water/Green Book, though; I thought Green Book won the year before Shape of Water, not after, so Green Book has no bearing, though Shape of Water's weird genre not holding it back + plus nomination day domination does still make it a good comparison.
I can totally see Butler taking SAG or BAFTA and then giving an emotional speech thanking Lisa Marie Presley which would make him front runner in my mind
I don't think many people are considering how TÁR could become an unexpected alternative to EEAAO. Given the sheer amount of picture awards it's won from critics groups, Blanchett being a near lock to win Actress, and Todd Field being a definite possible winner in Director, I think the stars *could* align for a TÁR best picture win.
It’s honestly so exciting that the main categories are still so up for grabs. That said we might still be underestimating the possibilities of that EEAAO sweep
I 100% agree with you. I mean it's sad what happened to Fraser but should that be a main factor of winning? Farrell at the other hand have absolute great year with 4 different performances and all of them was great. I want him to win bc he always give the best of him. Plus the fact that Bassett and Curtis got their nom just bc of career achivment
I fully believe that Director is a race between Daniels and Field. Fabelmans needs more momentum for director, and it's dwindled big time, people can feel the pull. I'm actually more convinced of Fabelmans winning Original Screenplay as it's consolation prize and Everything Everywhere and Banshees flocking to Director and Acting awards for their awards pre-Best Picture announcement. If Fabelmans wins Original, Spielberg is still awarded, as well as in a way he's never been before, AND it finally gets Tony Kushner his first Academy Award, one of the most overdue writers in Oscar history. Director comes down to Daniels Vs Field, because it's the passion pick between the auteur pick. Sometimes the two are the same (Campion, Zhao) and a sweep occurs, but this feels like a Mendes Vs Joon-Ho. Mendes/Daniels with the clear technical achievement that pushes one element of the film form to new heights (cinematography for 1917, editing for EEAAO), while the auteur pick (Parasite, TÁR) is almost less showy on the surface but it's grasp on film elements is so co-ordinated that it becomes clear no other director could direct their respective films like that.
Regina king and Allison Janney both won oscar without a best picture nomination and they were up with nominees from best picture nominated movies. I think Bassest is safe
I really hope Michelle Yeoh and Brendan Fraser win the Sags and the Oscars. I'm so tired of biopics winning all the acting awards. We need original ideas to be more recognized.
Their little moment of silence and reminiscence after Brother Bro brought up Green Book winning over The Favourite for adapted screenplay was great, with the zoom ins and everything.
Yes & same will happen in 5 weeks when They'll be screaming "W-oommmeeen Tallllkkking" Whhhhy!!!! Why won't you give Sarah Polley anything Academy!" I can also seem them having a similar meltdown if my instinct is right & Top Gun becomes 3rd sequel in History to Win Best Picture
I just realised that Everything Everywhere All At Once would be the first science fiction movie ever to win best picture, if it actually manages to win. That would be an awesome first movie.
Omg is it Matt... Is it that Matt? IT'S THAT MATT, OH MY GOD. NEXT BEST PICTURE AND OSCAR EXPERT TEAMED UP. I'M SO HAPPY. THREE OF THE GREATEST OSCAR PREDICTORS. Matt is my favourite Letterboxd reviewer omg
I actually think that Best Picture comes to: Everything Everywhere, Top Gun Maverick, Women Talking and Banshees Director: Spielberg, Daniels and maybe Field
I’m surprised with your lack of faith for Banshees, it’s my favourite by far. I’d love it to win picture/screenplay and fairly confident Farrell will win best actor.
I am rooting for Triangle of Sadness. I really enjoyed that movie! I also really enjoyed Banshees… so I just don’t know but either of those two movies win. I was disappointed that Charlotte Wells didn’t get a nom for director or screenplay. Aftersun was such a really beautiful story.
@@seankoontz4235 Didn't they do it with Chivo Lubeski? If anyone deserves it it's Deakins, who until he won looked like he was going to be the Hitchcock of film photography.
EEAO is this years Eternal Sunshine, I see it winning Original screenplay and supporting actor. Director Todd Field and Picture Top Gun winning four Adapted Screenplay, Editing, Sound
@@Mauricio21ish One thing to consider: Only 2 people have ever won the Directing Oscar without at least a Globe Director nomination. Todd Field is missing that crucial nomination.
For me it’s up to this point, it’s Best Picture ( personal favorite): EEAAO, Director: Daniels (Personal Choice), Best Actress: Cate Blanchett, she’s the frontrunner and I feel deserves it. Although I would be ecstatic if Michelle Yeoh wins. Best Actor: Frontrunner is Brendan Fraser but in a controversial opinion, having watched all the movies, it should go to either Colin Farrell or Austin Butler. Colin had an amazing performance plus is Overdue, Austin Butler did the impossible and became Elvis not some impression. Supporting should go to Stephanie Hsu but it’s going To Angela Bassett, Ke Huy Quan for best S Actor and Best Screenplays, Banshees and Women’s Talking.
It's funny that the Oscar would go to "whose speech at SAG and BAFTA got people to want to vote for". But understandable though as no way we can compare arts, Fraser, Farrell and Butler delivered the amazing performances, so the Oscar can't judge by their performances alone.
If you wanna give Yeoh the Oscar then give her a lifetime achievement award. Cate had the most magnificent and impressive performance of the year and therefore most deserving of the leading actress trophy. It's just tough shit that it has been a very competitive category.
my alternative to everything everywhere for picture is still top gun. despite its cinematography snub, lack of director and actor, getting screenplay is even better than getting all of those nowadays. Especially if they go with what brother bro said about the voters picking their favourite movie (but I can't remember a block buster action movie winning a screenplay before). I think when it comes to the older demographic, theres no movie that they would like more than top gun. A package of screenplay, sound, possibly editing and picture doesn't seem too impossible. And also, with long lasting impact, Top Gun is most definitely going to have impact. No one (general audience) is going to be talking about the fabelmans or banshees in the future, but top gun will still be a career high for cruise. It also is the most well rounded in reviews with high high 90s for both audience and critics (whereas everything everywhere has become a tad bit more divisive among audiences).
My Oscar Winner Predictions (2023) Best Picture * Everything Everywhere All At Once Best Director * Daniel Kwan & Daniel Schneiert-Everything Everywhere All At Once Best Actor * Austin Butler-Elvis Best Actress * Cate Blanchett-TÁR Best Supporting Actor * Ke Huy Quan-Everything Everywhere All At Once Best Supporting Actress * Angela Bassett-Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Best Original Screenplay * The Banshees of Inisherin Best Adapted Screenplay * Women Talking Best Animated Feature * Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio Best Cinematography * All Quiet On The Western Front Best Makeup And Hairstyling * Elvis Best Costume Design * Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Best Original Score * Babylon Best Film Editing * Top Gun: Maverick Best Production Design * Babylon Best Sound * Top Gun: Maverick Best Visual Effects * Avatar: The Way of Water Best International Feature * All Quiet On The Western Front Best Documentary * Fire of Love Best Original Song * Naatu Naatu-RRR Best Live Action Short Film * An Irish Goodbye Documentary Short Film * Stranger at the Gate Animated Short Film * The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
Tired of Matt and his “they won’t give an Oscar to an MCU role”. Just stop; the academy likes Black Panther, Angela is going to win. Her performance is leagues above the usual comic book role and if it was in any regular drama, we wouldn’t be second guessing her.
Agree it's so boring, the First Black panther is a best picture nominee and the sequel got 5 nomination, it's happening, the movie Will got 2 wins, supporting and costume.
In regards to production design, I feel like we're not addressing the fact that they built a city block (Beale St) and Graceland mockup in Australia. On top of having to recreate these realistic performance spaces like for the '68 comeback special and Las Vegas. I feel like the Oscar should be for more than just what the voters remember by watching the film or what's flashy but like the craft behind it. That's why all these behind the scenes craft videos and articles are coming out.
I’m unsure if they have answered this in a previous video, but why is it called the “Oscar EXPERT” when it’s almost always both cole and Justin? Was this channel started by one of them and the other kept on joining in?
Hard disagree on opening the show with a Naatu Naatu performance. A) You don't want your best performance of the night to come too early, and B) why would you give the massive Indian viewership coming just for this more incentive to click off 5 minutes into the show? I know, they'll probably stick around to see it win, but they could easily switch channels in the meantime. But point A) is still more important... Always play the song you know is gonna win LAST!
Matt was great. He is not bias at all. He speaks facts even though he doesn't like the movie or person. That's a real critic. Twins, you should learn from him.
I don’t understand the Kerry Condon choice. I haven’t seen any love or momentum for this choice. If anything, I would say Stephanie Hsu has a lot of love for an upset. I mean, the way people have cheered tremendously whenever her name is amongst the nominees.
Stephanie Hsu didn’t make the BAFTA longlist and wasn’t nominated for the Golden Globe. Kerry on the other hand was nominated everywhere. I think Stephanie is the person people want to win in their hearts but Kerry is the realistic choice
This is very entertaining however the following is how it will turn out next month. Congratulations to Austin Butler and now it’s on to the Academy Awards where Austin will win the Oscar for his dynamic performance as The King. It was before the Elvis movie was released and the prediction was made that he would win both the Golden Globe and the Oscar. It’s time for Elvis Presley to get his Oscar for his immeasurable contributions to the movie industry. The new book Elvis: The Quest for an Oscar was written with that specific goal in mind. When the Academy Awards are aired and Austin Butler wins the best actor Oscar, Priscilla should be standing right next to him accepting the Oscar for Elvis Presley. Please go to Barnes & Noble, read some reviews of the book and marvel at some of the photographs, how about the cover of the book. It is a fantastic image of Elvis Presley at the very beginning of his illustrious movie career. Spread the word, Elvis: The Quest for an Oscar.
My final predictions Best Picture Top Gun Maverick Best Director Daniels EEAAO Best Actor Colin Farrel Banshees of Inersherin Best Actress Cate Blanchett TAR Best Supporting Actor Ke Huy Kwan EEAAO Best Supporting Actress Angela Bassett Black Panther Best Orginal Screenplay EEAAO Best Adapated Screenplay Top Gun Maverick Best Cinematography All Quiet on Western Front Best Original Score Babylon Best Production Design Babylon Best Sound Top Gun Maverick Best Editing Top Gun Maverick Best Costume Design Black Panther Best Makeup & Hair Elvis Best Visual Effects Avatar Way of Water Best Animation GDTs Pinnochio Best Foriegn Language film All Quiet on Western Front Best Documentary Fire of Love Best Orignal Song RRR-Nattu Nattu
@@rafearcher7882 Well that give an even stronger lower package for Picture but it'll make Women Talking go home empty talking, can you really see Avatar going home empty handed too I mean we have 3 films probably going home gongless Women Talking, Triangle of Sadness & maybe Fablemans Can you seriously see there being 4?
@@calumroberts1282 To me, The Way Of Water was quiet a weak movie that doesn't live up to the power and beauty of the first Avatar. Just like Avengers: Endgame it really is in great danger of being one of the most seen movies at cinemas without any Oscar wins. Even the Elvis Art Direction and the way they could immitate his moves was somehow better imho.