2024 PREDICTIONS.. SHIMANO Update | GCN has Tanked | AERO IS Dead | E-scooters 

Interesting observations on cycling RU-vidrs. Whilst the Ali-Express element of Trace Velo's content will become less of an attraction, the guy behind it (Luke) is likeable and straightforward and I think he'll do fine, even if he pivots his content. Also, there's always room for new channels because viewer loyalty is fickle and, as you point out, some of the seemingly untouchable behemoths like GCN are losing traction now, making space for more authentic voices.

My prediction , Hambini will still be 5 years old next December

That GCN video defending the bike prices vs motorcycles was so hard to watch. There is no way the current bike prices are defendable in any way. Certainly when taking into account all the tollerance and hidden quality issues with carbon frames.

clearly the only way to turn around the slump in sales is to release even more 3k-12k models of bikes for 17 year old Olympic racers.

GCN has pursued quantity over quality in its RU-vid content. Reviews of products, behind-the-scenes reporting, and similar programming are great, drawing me to the channel. But they have increased BS content to maintain a steady flow of episodes. ''Elite pro vs. man who hasn't ridden a bike in 40 years - WHO WILL WIN?'. 'Former Pro Tour rider vs. 70-year-old woman'. '2023 superbike vs. 1982 Sears & Roebuck 10-speed'. Ok, I did exaggerate a bit, but not by much. I prefer 4 episodes a week of quality content over a daily barrage of nonsense.

10:50 I think Hambini is completely right that the increased cost of bicycles means that quality control must tighten accordingly. If you sell a pedal bike for the price of a motorcycle, the buyers are going to expect essentially perfection, and this applies to commuter ebikes as well.

Imagine an entire industry being held to account for their anti-consumer behaviour over the last decade.

Luke (TraceVelo) is fantastic, I think he will do fantastically even if he moves away from the whole aliexpress thing. I've enjoyed watching him champion the cheaper end of cycling and I reckon that's what he'll continue to do.

As a small-ish RU-vidr: I find it amazing how strongly the algorithm aggressively pushes content related to anything that can be monetized (on the YT end.) Product reviews always get so much more organic reach than anything else, at least for me. RU-vid exists to sell ads, and they are slanted towards things that advertisers buy against. Also, people love buying new things. I've found my comfortable place by simply having a day job that means I can give an honest opinion and not give a care towards future manufactuerer relationships or affiliate income.

I predict 2024 could be the first year without a new BB standard for all time. There, I said it.

Went with sensah empire pro on a Chinese build. I'm pretty impressed for the price. You're probably right with Chinese brands becoming mainstream, hopefully it won't ruin Trace Velo's channel. I like his builds

The bicycle manufacturing industry has got lost up its own backside somewhere over the last 3-5 years. £6,000 is barely mid range in terms of price bracket for some manufacturers which is unsustainable and I don't see how they can arrest the slide. 105 being so expensive for example leaves such like wiggle room, pardon the pun

Problem is bike prices they have gone totally bonkers...

GCN ? We absolutely need even more marketing bike influencers on RU-vid. It s not enough yet. We need content that tells us what is the latest, most expensive, best, hottest for us. How can we only ride a bike without RU-vid?!

Gone are the days when you go and buy ZIPP or Reynalds wheels the go to wheels for value and speed are either Farsports or Winspace the price is unbeatable! As for the goods to be of merchandisable quality you are spot on.I am a car dealer i sell second hand cars from £4k to 20k and believe you me if there is anything wrong with a car its slung back at me and think of how many moving parts on a car there are ....A brand new bike SHOULD be within the tolerances stated if not its not of merchandisable quality and you have the right to reject!

Trace Velo is pretty much the only channel that seriously reviews chinese-brand stuff, and show the defects of the parts too. I only buy branded drivetrain and brake parts, the rest are chinese components. So his channel is a good resource for me. There are millions of people that are the same as me.

gravel used to make no sense for me when they started coming out. with the state of the roads we now have, i barely go on my road bike because ive become tired of competing with cars for the non potholed strips of road we have left.

In 2016 I had a Wilier carbon frame crack on me at the rear chain stay and sending me to hospital with a broken collar bone. Wilier blamed me for an incorrect install of either the cassette, hangar or the skewers. The bike companies have been pretty lackadaisical to this point in taking responsibility for quality issues. Shimano is the most current case-in-point.

Honestly, I'd love to see the harmonisation of bearing standards, namely headsets and bottom brackets. All this soup of external cups, zero stack and integrated types of headsets (and that's just one side of head tube) were driving me mad when I was building my bespoke bike. And that was before you figure out what diameter is the steerer; I particularly blame Canyon for outrageous use of 1-1/4 on the top. Crank axle standards are mad too: GXP, 24 mm, 28,99 mm, 30 mm. Why not 36 mm (stiffness galore!) and BB shell the size of a fire hose?!

Interesting take on the world of cycling this days. I have noticed a decline in the RU-vid world, when it comes to storytelling. There is a generalization of the RU-vid format, which doesn‘t tell stories anymore but much more „10 things, I wish I knew“ kind of videos. I miss the days of storytellers.

love that eardrum breaking intro! 😂😂😂

I predict that the old steel bikes made in years past which have provided transportation and exercise will continue to function in 2024 and be one of the veiled yet most influential parts of bicycle culture.

now thats a hello! mmm, very interesting last point, I'll be in the lookout for reports like that in my neck of the world (SF), too bad i don't ride as much anymore. . Thanks for all you do. Appreciate the continued content.

Average age of my fleet is close to 30 years old. I predict that won't change drastically at any point in the future. I also predict Shimano won't be getting any money from me in the years ahead and that all my wheels will remain custom built, ride magnificently and last decades. They don't build things like they used to, not a problem I face. As for GCN, its become a bit like top gear on bicycles.

I recently built a 26” 90s mtb as a gravel build, for long distance and commuting. It’s a game changer in terms of comfort. The condition of the roads in London, especially East London are tragic. They’re so bad e-scooters can’t ride on them. Even the sidewalks are cooked

Glad to see people here supporting luke of trace velo… i like his work and has kept watching his videos for almost 2 years now and its quite entertaining

Looking forward to the party video for your 6th birthday complete with jelly and ice-cream.

I would suspect that the poor quality of modern bicycles might make people look at the second hand market as a bike that has been used as a commuter for the last 10 years is far less likely to go wrong

I predict in 2024… steel will still be real.

Nice video and presentation. Agreed, Bambini knows best. My next build is a gravel.

I always look forward to original and edgy GCN content such as bmx vs TT bike or how to wax a chain. 😂

Some excellent thoughts. Will be interesting to see how they play out next year. GCN is an interesting one. They must have very high production costs and whether they can continue to push out new interesting content will, i think, be challenging.

I think Trace Velo will do fine. Many people outside the western world cannot afford brand name bikes and parts but have access to the same RU-vid videos as us. Heck, even westerners are curious about finding good priced products and brands that don't pay sponsorship fees to be "reviewed" by the bike big channels.

Personal prediction 2024: I ride my old bikes more and certainly won't buy a new one

I wish there were more bike channels where they share more about their rides or bike vacations. I used to be a big backpacker and there were a lot of similar gear related channels, but there are also channels who are focused on travel, hiking, and camping.

Here in Finland, snowed under from Nov to April, the youth is riding escooters thru snow & sleet

Gravel bikes work indeed very well if you want a fun flexible bike, that's also reasonably practical. I put some light Conti touring tires and a Redshift stem on my 2018 Rose Backround CF. It's a fun do anything bike. It's only marginally slower than a road bike on smooth overland roads. While I wouldn't take it to a bike park, trails work just fine. I don't have to worry much about flats, my shoulders don't hurt anymore thanks to the light shock absorption and lower tire pressure. It's essentially a sporty touring bike and it's a ton of fun.

Happy New Year Sir. Interesting predictions. Am a little surprised there was no prediction regarding classified hub success/failure. Nero is a good show. Cade media is also a fine show. Will try and remember to validate your predictions a year from now. Still don't understand the turmoil over BB30. My lefty's BB30 has performed spectacularly for 11 years. Quiet as a church mouse. You have a great product and a decent show.

I think all those court cases and settlements will at some point help cycling industry to improve and be accountable for the presented quality of their products. It definitely a thing to strive for and demand by the consumer…

second hand market is just overflooded with bikes it feels total dumbassery to buy new these days. Especially for the prices they're asking for these days. MTB wise i still prefer the older 2x11 setup, and the shimano xtr group i scavenged together was 500 in total. wich is about the price of their current entry level groupset (minus the fact that it doesn't fail spectacularly).

I've got an Old scooter from the late 1920s maybe mid 30s I want to convert it to electric, wandering what you thought's whats the best system to use? Have to put a hub motor in it, 9 or 10-inch tyres, can I still get innertubes and tyres for it? Would the spokes be an issue? Would I have to cut and rethread the originals? Or can you buy at that sort of length? not sure what that would be probably about 2-3 inches, I don't know what size hub I want need? something with power probably 3 kW minimum, it weigh about 10 kilos or more. Merry Christmas

I think the novelty of AliExpress products might slowly close the gap between mainstream products, however the cost might always be a winner in my opinion. The one downside I see is the resale market of Chinese components/frames for now. Great recap Hambini and always good to see the pen is working 😂

The Nero Show is like watching grass grow

Happy 2024🎉

R.I.P Hambini Headphone using fans.

completely agree with you about the Nero Show and Cade. I think Chris and Jesse would have more subs if they weren't Australia-centric for most of the time. RU-vid is still skewed towards USA in my estimation, and Yanks aren't too keen on non-American accents.

My next two bikes with have clincher to balance easier with hidden weight, try hidden on tubular which my current bike has

I think so many people are POd with the crazy bike prices that quality issues that were accepted 5 years ago are now leading people to sue. It feels like the dramatic increase in prices has not been matched with an increase in quality (prob opposite)

For the bike claim. I have first hand experience, it really really depend on your local distributor. For an example, if the distributor is contributing a whole lot of bike sales to the manufacturer, and the distributor actually want to help you to claim the warranty, it has a way better chance to get it done within a very short lead time. On the other hand, if the distributor or the bike shop doesn't really want to help you to talk to the manufacturer for the claim, all I can say is good luck to you.

always check if the pen is working

Curiously there are almost no updates on the erx groupset apart from the german youtuber klein concepts, who had no problem with a later iteration. Either nobody bought the groupset or people have been riding them without major hassles ever since the design changes. Something which bugs me about "review" channels is that they rarely follow up on anything.

The Francis Cade show is boring because of Jimmy. I said this at the start and I stand by it.

Would be curious to hear what are your thoughts about the future of Campy? 2024 will be the first season in ~70 years that they don't have a single Pro Tour team using their stuff.

The re introduction of Rodney the rimmer brakes. Oh yeah under the guise of bringing down costs without losing face.

Excellent perspective, thank you

Nero cycling - Chris and Jesse have really evolved as RU-vidrs. Their no frills podcast is really entertaining. I’ve been watching them for years, so I might be a bit subconsciously biased, but, in my opinion they are the best podcast. The key, like your channel, is they are absolutely themselves, with no bluff no disguised shill, just very good, well informed and totally honest content, chat and banter :)

Shimano microspline hubs also have a potential problem of locking the freehub to the hub, creating a directdrive upon failure. Could be super dangerous. Happened to me with a shimano xt microspline hub, fortunately was on rolly terrain at the time and not bombing down a hill. shimano is quick with the warranty though. Be interesting a hambini video on the engineering or parts failure of the shimsno microspline hub.

Yes, but the tour de france was won the last 2 years on BBright, and rim brakes are coming back :)

Scooters are banned in many countries for a reason, they're hella dangerous. A friend of mine is in a hospital with a vertebrae fracture 'cause a douchebag was riding it on the sidewalk like a bat out of hell. As a bikerider I just hate them, because it comes with a lot a shitty behaviors.

Francais and Jimmy’s podcast is very entertaining

Who needs Nostradamus when we have Hambini

My take on Nero show v cades show. Jesse and Chris actually come prepared to talk about the topics they’ve suggested for the video. Cade’s one is kind of short and punchy topics which don’t seem that well researched/prepared and don’t get into a deeper level of discussion to find it interesting. Jesse and Chris are also full blown roadies (and not sponsored) so anything goes.

I don't have any experience with LTWOO, but I do have quite a bit with Sensah, and unfortunately it's not great. I had Sensah SRX Pro on my gravel/commuter bike for about 18 months, and when it worked, it worked pretty well - shifts were smooth and generally precise, and I did actually like the double tap shifting action. But quality just isn't there. I had to replace the derailleur twice - once for a barrel adjuster that just snapped off, and once for one of the pins that holds the parallelogram on to the derailleur falling out. And then the return spring in the shifter broke, making the shifting action far poorer. The hood rubber was also pretty poor quality, and never really wanted to stay exactly in place. While I did do about 10,000km overall on the groupset in the 18 months I used it (considerably more than an average rider would) I felt that the quality just doesn't match up to Shimano's offerings (I just replaced my Sensah with Ultegra R8000 shifters and a GRX800 rear derailleur), so it really is a mater of getting what you pay for. If my experience is anything to go by (and I know, maybe it's not, anecdotes just being anecdotes and all that) I think they've got work top do if they want to get widespread acceptance in the west.

At 5:50 I keep looking at that rear mech shift cable housing and I cringe on how LOOOONG it is

I just take my gravel bike everywhere. 42c tubebless give me so much comfort. What's the point of 28c road tires if only 25% (Or less) of the ride is on pristine asphalt? I wish I had sold my road bike for lots of $$$ during COVID.

I predict I will continue to ride. I will continue to have interest in cycling be it the industry, culture, racing, legal, etc. I predict I will click on more Hambini videos. At the risk of revealing my ignorance, I'm not an engineer, but is balancing bike wheels really a thing? I worked in the auto tire and service industry for 25 years and have balanced many tires, my understanding is bicycles do not operate at speeds where wheel balancing is necessary. An auto tire imbalance problem usually doesn't show up below 45mph. Weird. On the topic of litigation, negligence and such, I work at a bike shop in the US and our owner recently went shopping for insurance as the current policy cost was set to increase by 40%!!! In the past we have done "shop rides", not a single race or event but a weekly ride put on by the store. It is looking like we may have to discontinue this practice because of liability. Someone gets hurt on "your" ride, through no fault of yours other than you put the ride on, and they can sue you. It has been very difficult to find insurance companies willing to cover bike shops. Even the classic test ride of a new bicycle may have to change drastically to avoid being sued in the case of an incident. Heaven forbid you encounter some risk in your life!!

GCN has made some questionable videos and subjects recently. They’ve kinda lost their integrity recently which is a real shame.

Hello Hambini, Happy New Year! Here's my 5 cent prediction on e-scooters and wheel-set rotation balance system(s). A. E-scooter manufacturers need to come up with an easy method/split rim to fix a simple flat. Currently it is extremely hard to fix a simple flat on scooters as it often takes more than 2 ~ 3 hours of sweat and hard labor. It has gotten to the point where I and other shops in Seattle no longer want to work on those tiny rims with rock hard tiny tires. Some owners have offered me $200 usd cash and I turn them down. Why? Because I know for a fact, I will automatically lose half a day's work. The manufacturers think the solution is solid tires, but they too wear out quickly and are practically impossible to fix or replace. B. I'm going to launch my own carbon wheel-set brand called Rotation Crafters that will feature Dynamic Speed Balance which will be the world's first easy to use Rotational Wheel Balance System. BOTTOM LINE: A. If e-scooters don't come up with an easy fix tire system or they will disappear off the map by the end of 2024. B. Late 2024 I'm launching Rotation Crafters wheel-sets with DSB balance system technology. These wheel-sets will set a new world standard in High-End wheel performance. They will be the Next Generation of the Modern Wheel. as they will allow all new tech never seen on wheels, like wireless wheel weight changing technology and much more. Everything else will become obsolete practically overnight.

Fascinating video!

I'm curious as to whether you think I'll be able to get Shimano crank replacements for recall coded cranks that have not yet failed. "It's good for now," seems so dubious. But I can't even sell it because it has a recall code.

Balancing wheels, that's crazy. Is that a ploy to take it to a dealer? Logic would tell me that my valve would drop to the bottom when on the bike stand, but I haven't noticed that on any of my bikes.

I was waiting for Hambini’s Absolute Black prediction for 2024. 😂

Farsports Kaze Wheelset on Canyon Ultimate SLX build? I like it.

I wonder how much audience and topics to discuss and therefore revenue in videos and podcasts etc will be lost with the shutting down of GCN+. Pretty sure the general cycling public won't go out of their way to find alternative sources of watching bike races if they even are going to be broadcasted anymore to the same extent. Following the cycling "influencers" riding around and doing the same stuff is also getting pretty old quick. Hard times ahead I fear.

10:10 Chris Miller & Jesse (apologies if I spelled that wrong) are a good combo. Francis Cade and ‘that Geordie guy’ not so much.

We used to call gravel bikes your winter bike, though mudguards were mandatory, I rode 42 x 17 fixed with a dynamo for lights. No gears to worry about. GCN are crap agreed.

Great vid as always :) 2024: I will sell my only plastic, press-fit BB road bike. I will continue to derive pleasure and utility from my old steel 3x9 threaded-BB tourer while chuckling heartily from the sidelines as the entirely dysfunctional industry continues to inevitably eat itself; the main attraction in the ridiculous soap opera it's created.

Want to hang out. Unfortunately im pretty lame. So, keep up the good work 👍

Great one!

Merry Christmas my favorite 5 year old!!!

Is BB86 a good bottom bracket ?

two videos in two days, it must be christmas

Gravel propably is the one size fits all. Especially if you have two sets of wheels. My friend has flat bar gravel bike and I was beating him on straight line asphalt with 20 year old hybrid, but the minute we got to the dirt road I realised that semislicks and 7 bars of pressure wasn’t really cutting it.

Ive give my son my de rosa with all the bells and whistles..constant aggro..im sticking with my 40 year old colnago master.

For most people, I think an endurance frame with disk brakes would be pretty much do everything. I don't see the reason to have a gravel bike with supper wide tires. If you want to ride very ruff and muddy trails, maybe a trail or a xc bike would be a better choice. The So called gravel bike is more capable road off bike then the early mountain bikes.

What about custom bike frames (steel, titanium). What are your opinions of them? Any chance them spreading out more to the public (context: I just got myself a custom waltly gravel frame built with my dreamed geometry and specs, eager to receive it)

I don’t really watch GCN on you tube, but GCN plus was really good. The documentary side of it was like a nice extra but the racing coverage was really good. I also really like the new Francis Cade format. I personally prefer it over the others. I also bumped into him a few times, and he is one real nice guy who just loves anything bike related.

Can we get the mic turned up a bit pls fella x

The Nero show is brilliant. They have the perfect attitude to bikes. The whole do I need this expensive bike? No but it's all about the froth

i think im gonna continue spending what little money i have on vintage mtb parts i gotta get all my faves before theyre all gone, its all getting expensive already i will however use some alexpress components sometimes honestly i should start hoarding whole vintage bikes but i dont have the room or money

Love the Nero show

Hambini time!!!

Just noticed LTWOO font is same as sram. The W is the "M" from SRAM essentially. Haha

Have you ever heard of boulhol aérocycles ? peak french engineering he made a 52 grams front hub and is specialised in making riveted bikes and cnc 2017-T4 alu forks

I'm probably too old to understand social media, cause I got a couple shorts of the "Nero" show on my suggestions and blocked it 😂

Hambini prediction for lottery numbers please!

1:36 But how many customers buy a bicycle just for the BB, or even caring for what BB is installed. If it "works" any issues they could've been aware of are past the decision point. A better data would be, BBs bought by those about to assemble a custom bike. As it stands, it's OEMs' preferences amplified. Which could be due to reasons like easier workflow (especially no retooling). If OEMs chose the best exclusively, we'd have exclusively integrated cables, NTN/SKF bearings, and far fewer bonded Shimano cranksets.

Wiggle CRC should have been a sub-point of Signa. Both were (at least partly) part of Signa Group.

IF (and it's a big one, hence the CAPS) bike frames exercise quality control over their tolerances, pressfit will rally. If tolerances are sloppy, then threaded is the answer. Canyon thinks they can control tolerances and are going to stick with press fit. I believe fundamentally press fit is much better than threaded.

As I'm a MTBer I've not followed what's going on with GCN. But there was never much interesting stuff there for me.