A little bit of insight from someone who’s read both The Nickel Boys and Conclave; The grandmother character in The Nickel Boys is talked about a lot but doesn’t get many ‘scenes’. The story would have to be restructured a little bit to give her more focus, and even then I don’t know if I want to predict a win here. I feel like she has a decent shot of getting nominated IF they expand her role. But at this time I’m not going to have her at #1. Isabella Rossellini plays Sister Agnes in Conclave, and I cannot overstate how small of a role this is in the book. She only has a few scenes and they don’t leave that great an impact on the story. Since the book centers around the cardinals trying to select the new Pope, it is obviously a very male-dominated ensemble, and nearly all of the men have showier roles than Rossellini. This role would have to be SIGNIFICANTLY expanded for Rossellini to be in the conversation at all. I don’t wish to upset anyone. If you want to read these books to judge for yourselves, by all means go ahead. But in my opinion, you could do a decently-sized summary of both books without mentioning either character.
Here being described as 'Boomer Boyhood' is why I love watching The Oscar Expert. As for Zemeckis, all I can think of him nowadays is that one scene of I'm Thinking of Ending This.
Guys I know retrospectives take a lot of time. But please keep doing them! We love them! Lets get this comment to at least 100 likes. Come on community!
Can we talk about the year when 19-year old Scarlet Johansson won BAFTA Best Actress for Lost in Translation while also being nominated for Girl with Pearl Earring and didn’t get any noms at the Oscars
She definitely was. I really don’t see a reason why she wasn’t a shoe in for a nomination. She played a real life figure, the movie was well received, and she was the most raved about part of it. They really dropped the ball with Lead Actress that year. For me it should’ve been Blanchett, Yeoh, Deadwyler, Davis, and Robbie.
@@poett8875 Mia Goth in Pearl gave the best performance other than Deadwyler. But they were never going to nominate her, because the Academy hates the horror genre.
Something tells me we need to keep an eye on Denzel Washington for GLADIATOR 2. He could be a major contender. If he gets nominated, he will tie as the second most nominated male actor ever (he will tie Sir Laurence Olivier), putting him behind only 12-time nominee Jack Nicholson.
And only the 6th actor to reach double nominations figures if/when it happens . Over 800 actors nominated since Oscar began. It’s the most exclusive of clubs
Karla’s narrative loses steam if going Supporting (specially given she’s the title character, most won’t buy it and it could be considered category fraud from the get go). Just imagine giving the first Oscar to a transgender person, in Supporting, for a Leading role that actually names the film. Message would be crystal clear, and not nice.
Supporting Actress 1. Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) 2. Lesley Manville (Queer) 3. Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson) 4. Julianne Moore (The Room Next Door) 5. Joan Chen (Didi) Supporting Actor 1. Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing) 2. Drew Starkey (Queer) 3. Samuel L. Jackson (The Piano Lesson) 4. Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) 5. Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)
The Apprentice got a distributor (not a very well known one) they bought out someone who probably had veto power. They clearly had a legal team go through the film and script and okayed everything so I really don’t see any reason to think this won’t come out this year
The deal is not officially done yet, but it's been reported by Washington Post and Deadline that it's almost done. And it's Briarcliff, whose CEO is Tom Ortenberg, who previously ran Open Road Filns abd distributed films like Spotlight (Best Picture winner) and Nightcrawler. Before that, he was President of Theatrical Films of Lionsgate Films, and distributed Fahrenheit 9/11 (Best Documentary Feature winner) among others. The article also says: "...according to a person close to the production who spoke on the condition of anonymity because negotiations are ongoing, Ari Emanuel, the head of WME, which represents Strong, reached out to Snyder directly to ask him to approve the Briarcliff deal. (Strong’s performance was widely praised at Cannes as a possible Oscars contender.)" so you know they're sure as hell intending to mount an Oscar campaign for him.
Thanks guys oscar season is right around the corner... im rooting for my girls saoirse and amy. Also yeah rooting for samuel L jackson to, finally get his oscar...
Mark Eidelstein or Karla Sofía Gascón will possibly gonna win Independent Spirits for Best Breakthrough Performance which might attract various critic awards …
I don’t know. I get this weird feeling that Samuel L. Jackson will be like this years Bradley Cooper. Everyone thinks he’s gonna win because he’s overdue and giving an Oscar like performance only for it to come out not resonate with voters
My current predictions on the app (as of 1.7): *Best Supporting Actor:* 12. Jeremy Pope (The Collaboration) 11. John Lithgow (Conclave) 10. Denzel Washington (Gladiator II) 9. Javier Bardem (Dune: Part Two) 8. Harris Dickinson (Blitz) 7. Drew Starkey (Queer) 6. Austin Butler (Dune: Part Two) --------------------------------------------------------- 5. Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) 4. Stanley Tucci (Conclave) 3. Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing) 2. Keiran Culkin (A Real Pain) 1. Samuel L. Jackson (The Piano Lesson) *Best Supporting Actress:* 12. Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pèrez) 11. Kathleen Keener (Joker: Folie à Deux) 10. Joan Chen (Didi) 9. Selina Gomez (Emilia Pérez) 8. Rebecca Ferguson (Dune: Part Two) 7. Natasha Lyonne (His Three Daughters) 6. Lesley Manville (Queer) --------------------------------------------------------- 5. Toni Collete (Juror No. 2) 4. Maria Bakalova (The Apprentice) 3. Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) 2. Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson) 1. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (The Nickel Boys)
@@martin3980 feels like the likelier of the Dune Boys to me. Brought a lot of menace and gravitas we didn't see from him before while also giving a tasteful enough Skarsgaard imitation to essentially create a Harkkonen accent. Bardem was a fun comedic character but we've seen him do greater things. As to performances from other movies, most of them haven't been released yet so for the time being I'm stil apprehensive about a lot of them.
I’ve been thinking this also! I think Cage would need to be super popular with Critics awards and sweep the indie spirit and Gotham awards like Paul Mescal and the Everything Everywhere people did. I think Oz Perkins would also need to be campaigning heavily too.
I can't wait for the fall festivals to get excited for Queer and maybe a breakout hit emerges because so far the contenders are so weak that it's hard to rally behind any of them
I've read the book Queer. There's only two female characters. One is the friend of Starkey's character who is around his age so probably not Manville and the other appears near the end of the book in one scene... so, unless they did some major changes, I really don't know who she could be.
letterboxd says she plays alice cochan? I'm pretty sure the character never even appears in the book and just mentioned once. but anyway, no matter how they expand her role, none of the side characters are important to the story
If Nosferatu does well at the box office and does well in techs like production design, makeup, cinematography, and costumes, nobody thinks that Willem Dafoe has a chance of getting nominated? Especially considering that it looks like Eggers is deviating from the previous two movies and making the character more book accurate, where the character has a way bigger role in the story?
I was already on thin ice on Here before the trailer dropped now I’m feeling it as another Zemeckis flop even putting aside the de-aging which looks really weird.
I think Sam Jackson is going to come for that Oscar and it would be a great career cherry,he has been a prescence since Do The Right Thing always charismatic always delivers,in a way he's a bit like Don Sutherland,When he appears you know you're ok,he deserves all the flowers this year.
Best Supporting Actors 2025 1 Samuel L. Jackson in The Piano Lessons 2 Denzel Washington in Gladiator 2 3 Charence Maclin In Sing Sing 4 Kieran Culkin In A Real Pain 5 Drew Starkey In Queer just in case, but it should happen he such a talented actor 6 Stanley Tucci in Conclave 7 Jeremy Pope In The Collaboration 9 Austin Butler In Dune Part 2 I'm put him in no matter what 10 Harris Dickinson in Blitz or Babygirl Best Supporting Actress 2025 1 Zoe Saldana In Emily Perez 2 Danielle Deadwyler In The Piano Lessons 3 Aunjanue Ellis Taylor In Nickal Boy 4 Natasha Lyonne In His Three Daughters 5 Julianne Moore In The Room Next Door 6 Carrie Coon In His Three Daughters 7 Toni Collette In Jurors#2 8 Lasley Manville In Queer 9 Joan Chen In Didi 10 Selena Gomez in Emily Perez
I spotted Guy Pearce in "The Brutalist". We should all look forward to that film and performance. Guy Pearce is, in my opinion, one of our best and underrated actors working, and he deserves a solid comeback.
I have to argue against the Drew Starkey Dom sessa allegations. Drew Starkey HAS actually been in stuff, hes not a newcomer. Hasn't been in things people have seen? Maybe not, but Dom Sessa was a newcomer at what 20? Drew Starkey is 30! Not the same! Also ive seen one thing hes been in and he likes to do the outburst mentally unstable thing so theres probably a juicy performance there
I think the way Netflix will go with Emilia Pérez so all three women get a nomination is Karla Sofía Gascón for Best Actress, Zoe Saldaña for Supporting Actress and Selena Gomez for Best Song (Very likely winner too).
@@miguellozano28 dude you’re a delusional selenator, saca la cabeza de tu trasero y edúcate, French singer Camille wrote all of the original songs, with the assistance of a Mexican translator, Selena didn’t write a thing, for her to be considered she needs to be the writer, she’s not, so she won’t be a nominee for best song and totally NOT likely a winner hahaha), by the way she has a terrible accent in the film, nowhere near to be be considered as a likely nominee for acting. Ubícate
@@miguellozano28 de verdad que eres extremadamente torpe para no saber que para ser nominado a mejor canción tienes que escribirla, cosa que no hizo la poco talentosa Gómez, ubícate deja la obsesión y entiende que es pésima y no tiene nada que hacer cerca de los Oscar jajaja
I'd agree with Nathaniel Rogers that Maria Bakalova has the most likely narrative for a win (type of role, exposure, and maybe some regret for not giving it to her for Borat, an immediate "all time" comedic performance). As weeks will go by ,when the film release, a lot of ink is going to be around her role, and the (spoiler) rape scene, and the fact that Bakalova would be a "two-time-offender" to Trump's campaigning. Right after her, Deadwyler after her must-talked snub for Till. And right after them, Saldaña may play the industry card as she has starred in the top 3 b.o. hits ever... and worked with so many peers. I'd add Moore and the 5th slot, I wouldn't dare to name anyone
I still cant believe they CRIMINALLY missed my fav best animated project category last time!!!! Im so bitter!!!!! This is just ridiculous!!!!! How could they!!!!! This is just CRIMINALLY offensive!!!!!
They said they were going to do another video with International Feature, Animated Feature and other categories I think at the end of their tech categories video.
@@BenPaz dammit i skipped the ending of techs vid cuz i was so disappointed it wasn't included. Im used to it being part of techs. Thanks for letting me know) boycotting is cancelled then n im a subscriber again) omg its poetic)
The academy loves Denzel so he could get in for gladiator 2 My supporting 5 Actress Ellis Selena Gomez Leslie manville Rossellini Halsey it Elizabeth from maxxxine Supporting actor Samuel l Jackson the piano lesson Denzel Washington gladiator Jessie eisenberge a real pain Paul Raci sing sing Clarence divine eye sing sing
I watched emilia perez at a local cinema here in france I was amazed watching Selena's performance, and loved her chemistry with Karla's character pre and post transition I hope she can get a nomination
*My 2024 Nominees (So Far):* (60+ new releases seen as of comment) - SUPPORTING ACTOR: Javier Bardem _(Dune: Part Two)_ Ian Bliss _(Late Night With the Devil)_ Fred Hechinger _(Thelma)_ Chris Hemsworth _(Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga)_ Dan Stevens _(Abigail)_ alts. Tom Hardy _(The Bikeriders)_ Richard Roundtree _(Thelma)_ ========== SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Gideon Adlon _(Miller’s Girl)_ Adria Arjona _(Hit Man)_ Anna Baryshnikov _(Love Lies Bleeding)_ Tilda Swinton _(Problemista)_ Zendaya _(Dune: Part Two)_ alts. Dolly De Leon _(Ghostlight)_ Rebecca Ferguson _(Dune: Part Two)_ Alisha Weir _(Abigail)_
natasha would be the only nominee from the film and she's not a veteran known by the academy like kathy bates or christopher plummer for them to nominate her , in what appears to be a tight race
If that happens, it will be additionally amazing as he's just won a Tony for An Enemy of the People, and obviously already has an Emmy for Succession - so he'd be one of the few actors to have won the Triple Crown of Acting.
I would love to see samuel l Jackson win. He is long overdue. My second favorite actor of all time. Ellis and deadwyler better not even get nominated. They are both actresses I dread seeing on screen . will never support them !
I agree. But it's fun - especially when you later see the movies and when the nominations happen, and you can compare it and see what things people got right, and where they were completely off.
