8 Early-Round Picks to Avoid in Fantasy Drafts 

@@ferratorr1033 There are a few reasons for the hype about rookie RBs in my opinion. First of all, they may be talking up rookie RBs but very few are actually ranking them higher than NFL starting RBs. Trey Benson has the highest ADP of the rookie RBs, and he’s ranked as RB45 on Footballguys(FBG) and RB39 on FantasyPros(FP) (full PPR rankings). At FBG that’s after every non-rookie starting RB in the NFL. For FP they have Benson ranked 39, Jerome Ford 40, Gus Edwards 41, Blake Corum 42, Antonio Gibson 43 and Chuba Hubbard 45. Ford is the default starting RB in Cleveland if Chubb doesn’t return to start, and even if Ford doesn’t split carries with Chubb, he will split with D’onta Foreman. Any news about Nick Chubb will affect Ford’s ADP. Gus Edwards is technically the starting RB for the Chargers, but it will likely be a committee of Edwards, JK Dobbins, and/or Kimani Vidal. Plus Edwards is 29 and showing signs of regression, while Dobbins is coming off an injury but is still just 25 and is a Jonathan Taylor level talent when healthy. Vidal has also had a good camp. At 42 is Blake Corum, who is expected to get at least 150 touches in the Rams run-heavy offense alongside Kyren Williams, who was an undrafted free agent (so there are plenty who say it won’t take much for Corum to earn an even bigger role as a rookie. Antonio Gibson at 43 is the backup to Rhamondre in New England, a poor offense. Lastly at 44 is Chuba Hubbard, the default starting RB in Carolina until Jonathan Brooks is healthy enough to take over. The few starting RBs that Benson and Corum are ranked over are backup level talents and/or are part of a committee. And it is a fact that at least a couple rookie RBs end up with larger roles than anyone anticipated because the position is so prone to injury it’s unavoidable. For fantasy, trying to get one of those lucky rookies is like getting a winning lottery ticket because you usually can get them in the final round of your draft. So yeah, there’s good reason to be excited about rookie RBs, but for the most part they’re not ranked higher than established starters. Gus Edwards is the one exception this season, but he was only a starter last year because of injuries to Melvin Gordon and Keaton Mitchell. Prior to last season Gus Edwards never rushed more than 144 times, or had more than 6 rushing TDs. And again, he’s 29 going into the season.

@@tmartin8888So, my comment and view here may seem “nitpicky” but I’m not arguing consensus or the ADP rankings per se. But rather those who are making arguments, like in this video, that there’s a legitimate shot these rookies are anything but true handcuffs, to the point that while the rookies may have lower ADPs, talented and proven vets are getting ranked LOWER as a result.

Yeah when Dave said Odunze > Cook I was surprised. But Dave has good reasoning. (Alfredo)

Yeah that’s quite a stretch

Nah I’m with u, that’s just a straight up bad take

James Cook has a floor of 1200 total yards (800 rushing and 400 receiving). There's no way Rome even sniffs 1000 yards. Not in 2024, anyway.

Yeah I know Dave’s in on Caleb, but still, without an injury to someone in Chicago I don’t agree with Odunze>Cook. I’m not a believer in Cook at ADP but you can’t argue with his floor.

You get it

Mike Davis?

@@johnjacobs3601 that's what I meant

@@dustinroyer9368 I fell victim, and I KNEW he was not going to pan out 🤦

Nobody said he's not the best RB in Miami. If he's going in the 4th round that's a great price, but his currently ADP is at the end of the 2nd round.

Tank in the 14th is so good. But I think Richardson in the 11th is a legit league winner.

You’re absolutely right, I misspoke.

Atreyu was heartbroken. Artax sunk right in front of him 😭

@@johnjacobs3601 So was I. 😢😭😥

That’s a solid draft cost

Amazong draft stock never seen him go past the second round oddly

They're likely not going to be very pass-heavy with Sam Darnold or a rookie QB with minimal pass attempts in college. We actually discussed the fact that Jefferson had a 30% target share during the bad stretch of production last year. Targets are typically a great indicator of fantasy success, but there's a chance that the "flooding" of targets may not be enough to validate a top-6 selection.

hahaha 😂

did you listen to the pod at all?

More waffles.

I also mentioned his downtick in efficiency, changes made post-Dorsey, and Buffalo’s desire to find a complementary RB. But at the end of the day, it just comes down to an expected dip in volume. Because Ray Davis is there.

Ray Davis could easily be this year's Tank Bigsby.