A Bayesian Assessment of the Origins of COVID-19 using Spatiotemporal and Zoonotic Data 

Wednesday, July 24, 2024
Hoover Institution, Stanford University
Andrew Levin, professor of economics at Dartmouth College, discussed his new paper, “A Bayesian Assessment of the Origins of COVID-19 using Spatiotemporal and Zoonotic Data.”
PARTICIPANTS
Andrew Levin, Robert Hall, Michael Bordo, Michael Boskin, Steve Davis, Randi Dewitty, Sami Diaf, Alexander Downer, David Fedor, Andrew Filardo, Paul Gregory, Michael Hartney, Gregory Hess, Nicholas Hope, Robert King, Evan Koenig, Christian Kontz, Steven Koonin, Jeff Lacker, Mickey Levy, Ellen Meade, David Papell, Valerie Ramey, Tom Stephenson, Yevgeniy Teryoshin
ISSUES DISCUSSED
Andrew Levin, professor of economics at Dartmouth College, discussed his new paper, “A Bayesian Assessment of the Origins of COVID-19 using Spatiotemporal and Zoonotic Data.”
Robert Hall, Robert and Carole McNeil Joint Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, and Professor of Economics at Stanford University, was the moderator.
PAPER SUMMARY
Nearly half a decade has passed since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in late 2019, but the origin of the SARS-CoV-2 virus has remained murky. One hypothesis is that the pandemic was triggered by a zoonotic spillover from live mammals, including raccoon dogs, being sold at a wholesale market in Wuhan, China. An alternative hypothesis is that the pandemic was triggered by an accidental leak at a laboratory in Wuhan where extensive research on bat-related viruses was being conducted at a relatively low biosafety level. This paper utilizes Bayesian methods to evaluate the odds of these two hypotheses using publicly available data. The analysis proceeds by considering the specification of prior odds and then decomposing the Bayes factor into four components related to the outbreak's location and the spatiotemporal patterns of early cases in Wuhan and at the wholesale market. Preliminary results were presented at the July 24 workshop. The complete paper will be issued in the Hoover Economics Working Paper series over coming weeks.
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