A Second China Shock, With Brad Setser 

Fairly balanced analysis, but highly flawed (accidentally, I believe) as a result of ignorance. Costs of living in China are so much lower than in the US that there is no lack of Chinese consumption. Chinese people buy and consume more consumer goods and services than Americans. It just costs SOOOOO much less that American economists cannot comprehend or analyze it correctly. For consumer goods, the costs in China are approximately 10% of the cost in the US. In other words, if China "only" spends 20% as much on consumer goods as the US does, they actually get twice as much in real goods. Americans might spend $1500 on an iphone. Chinese spend $150 each on 2 Xiaomi or Oppo. The functionality is identical. Chinese spend 20% but get twice the consumer good. Ditto for the "social safety net". China doesn't need a social safety net because the cost of medical care is about 2-5% of US medical care cost, and also because Chinese people take care of their parents. For example, An x-ray costs $15, setting a broken bone and putting it in a cast costs $50, and open chest surgery costs $2000 (all these costs without any insurance, and of course multiply by about 7.25 to get the CNY cost). In other words, there is no need for medicare or social security because everyone can afford these costs. Older Chinese have much less need of retirement homes or elderly care because the vast majority of elderly live with their children. Learn a bit about China, and your analysis will be better.

As if US and EU don't subsidise their industries .

To clarify, the present American reaction to China's ascent mirrors the British government's response to America's economic and technological growth from the late 1800s to the early 1900s. It's a striking case of history repeating itself.

10:05 - " ... and that rebate was limited to Chinese made cars with Chinese made batteries .... " That is a blatant lie!!! The rebate applies to any EV sold in China, including also Tesla's EVs (The US and Americans love to tout about its being American Brand and American pride).

It won't stop with green energy and transports. Next step is replacing GE, Siemans, Bayer, GSK...with Chinese brands.

full of biased opinions, sad, with this attitude you wont find out why China succeed.

talking exactly like politicians, full of BS.

china grow is week? it grew 5.7 % last year.

the task of the Chinese govt was simply to create the environment so that the people can excel - whatever that maybe. As a result, a billion people came through poverty. Every Chinese who succeed is a Stoic - they have the mentality of a slave, who became a philosopher - they focus on what they need to do to get out of slavery . . .

First Shock : Chinese started exporting underwear, toys and calculators Second Shock : Chins have started exporting HITECH EVs, computers, chips, ships & passenger aircrafts

When you have a FREE Printing press, you don't need anything! How long will the world willing to be suckers?

It is just like any competition, if you are boxing and you are not skilled enough to beat the opponent then you cannot start kicking to win the competition, in the same way China is superior in manufacturing and also China produce affordable products for every class of the society, if you are capable enough then beat them in competition not by starting kicking or twisting their arms.

Good discussion. I may add that the decline in the Chinese real estate sector is actually a result of deliberate policy decision. The policy was an attempt to correct the over dependency on investment in the past. They did extreme quantitive easy to save their(and our) economies after the 2008 GFC. They are still dealing with the negative effect of that move. That is why they don't want to repeat the same mistake

The inconvenient truth is - the U.S. is enjoying a massive advantage over the rest of the world. That is largely made possible because the world at large (and China) still honour the dollar as the principal reserve currency, even after the collapse of Bretton Woods and the de-pegging of the dollar from gold. The certitude of dollar as the reserve currency enables the U.S. to print money, via issuance of debts, to finance its insatiable appetite for consumption; and to augment the exploit and hegemony of capital. So, it was by choice that the U.S. thinks that a whole new economy can be built around consumption, which lead to the so-called “post industrial economy”. And why not? When effectively to the U.S., the cost of capital and labour of other producing countries is no more than the cost of printing of the greenbacks. It looks like the bad decision is coming home to roost. Why the complain now?

The real estate slow down is being resolved, albeit slowly. It would NOT lead to systemic crisis. The ecposure of the Chinese big banks to real estate loans are in the low single digit percentage.

One man poison is another man foods. So, you need to talk to more experts on such topics to weigh the plausibility. Also, one cannot have the cake and eat it too.

America's protectionist response to China's challenge will lead it to become a technological and economic backwater. Meanwhile the rise of the BRICS will end the dominance of the dollar and the US will have to start paying its debts with a greatly devalued currency or much higher interest rates.

You guys should go to China and take a train trip. The trains are often quite full.

Not only this, but attempts to regain US traction in manufacturing are bound to fail.

get ready, China strong

It is US own doing. Selfishness, discrimination, greed, lead to these outcome.

The USA really needs to remove MFN status from the PRC, and leave the WTO.

States subsidies, lower tax incentives as well as the creation of designated FTZ are prevalent in economies across the world in order to grow industries. And in doing so, it brings about cost efficiencies to be able to compete globally and also create job opportunities for its own. Providing discount subsidies within the upstream spectrum of any industries ie discounts to electric vehicles has no leverage towards industrial manufacturing. The US is the victim of its own industrial demise when it chooses not to incentivese its own downstream activities. Allow professionals to decide industrial policies as academiens are not entrepreneurs

Hahahaha!!!! Go stay in China for one year and do an honest and truthful research!!!

To say that Chinese government does not encourage consumption is just total nonsense. In fact it is the opposite. The Chinese government has consistently adjust their policies to encourage consumption in China. In many sectors it has been highly successful. Anyone who visit China these days will be amazed by the level of consumption in goods and services. Yes, Chinese households have higher saving rates than American ones, but this is more of a culture difference. Not surprisingly, Chinese American households have one of the highest saving rates in the US. Living within your means is a highly regarded virtue in the Chinese culture.

jokers

this host is clearly biased and asking questions he already knows the answer to

BS bias

china grow is week? it grew 5.7 % last year.