Absolutely correct! And Coach Saban even said and alluded to the fact that his age consistently was such a negative to get coaches to come and work for him because of the threat of his retirement. Additionally, let's face it, working for Saban is no picnic. He demands so much of himself AND his staff that guys just don't hang around that long with some Kirby Smart exceptions. Going to Saban's Coaching College is a great foundation if you are young or are only under Saban for a few years to gain knowledge and profile for your next career move.
The roster is going to get softer and softer every year. It’s not the on field X’s O’s that made Bama immune to less than elite teams. It was “The Process” with instilled and uncommon level grit and patience and sacrifice that other programs could not match with any consistency.
Josh's point about Pete Golding's scheme and how the complication caused issues for the players is exactly what I've tried to have a conversation with people about and the frustrating part is that the fans only just want to say "defense bad!!". The conversation about the how and the why and what actually leads to better defense was never really had and that frustrated me to no end for the past 5 years.
So many Alabama fans thought Golding was an idiot, when I think he really wasn't. I think the problem was that he was almost too smart for his own good - the defense only got more complicated. I do think some of the coverage wrinkles he added had major flaws, which is why Steele abandoned them in 2023. But the biggest issue was really not about scheme or calls - it was more about a failure to teach players how to do their roles. A lot of that was probably on Golding and the assistants as coaches, but the changing nature of football meant the problem would only get worse.
@CollegeFootballNerds Pete had some notoriously stupid ideas. Dropping our best pass rushers on passing on downs. Leaving nickel DBs or box safeties isolated in man against the opponents fastest wideout. D line stunts on running downs resulting in giant holes. Pete may have been clever but it was a Wile E Coyote kind of clever that ended up with our defense getting blown up at the worst time
I know I’ve been feeling the same thing about the defense. It’s way too complex and doesn’t work with modern offenses. Kirby and others have done a better job building elite defenses at a consistent level.
@@CollegeFootballNerds any coach that thinks that sliding Will Anderson, the best edge rusher in college football at the time, inside to a position either over the OG or the inside shoulder of the OT like Golding did very, very often, is in fact an idiot.
I was sad to hear y'all won't be doing a Texas preview, but I will say that I would LOVE to hear y'all do more deep dives regarding how different schemes interact with each other, a la your discussion around Bama's old and new defensive philosophies. That's the kind of in-depth schematic discussion that's hard to find on RU-vid, and I'd love to hear more of it from you two.
Glad to see y’all back! You guys always have the most thoughtful and nuanced analysis out there. Also, the new cameras have yall looking especially nerdy 🤓😎
Pruitt leaving Alabama for Tennessee was the absolute worst mistake of the Alabama dynasty. He's coaching high school ball now. And Pete's D just didn't make plays.
It was bad for Bama but they still won a title and made it to two more after he left. It also set tennessee back a few years which is always a benefit for Alabama Football.
It's great to have you guys back!! Your show has become one of the added enjoyments of the college football season. I also agree whole-heartedly that we may see far better coaching this year than we have had in the past few years . Very excited about the up coming season. I'm still a little nervous about quarterback, but I am confident this coach will make the change if the starter does not perform.
Deboer knocking it out of the park recruiting has me hyped for the future but watching some of his past teams this offseason has me hyped to see what he can do this year with the talent Saban left
Excellent show. I’ve been watching for years and have a lot of respect for the depth of your thought and analysis. In my opinion, both of you surpassed your historical norms. Thanks very much. Great show. Look forward to watching your work this year. All great things to you both!
Im glad im not the only one that thinks Bama might be better going forward than they were essentially since 2020. That was the last time Bama looked like Bama. Nobody loves Saban more than me. But youve got to admit these last few years looked like the beginning of the downhill slide
I think more people expect Alabama to drop off a lot just because it's what they want to happen rather than having any factual basis for that belief. It's hard to see them losing more than 2 games, and my tigers are definitely not one of them because we haven't beat them in Tuscaloosa in 14 years.
It's that and the loss of Nick Saban. It's crazy to say this, but if Deboer can recruit like he has so far I'm not sure I don't take him and this staff over a 72 year old saban and his average/decent staff. Am I saying Deboer is better? No way, but he might be just as good or better than a 72 year old Saban that's trying to adjust to the NIL/transfer era.
@@TomBeard-og6sq You're crazy. Saban should have won in 2021 and he makes the playoffs last year but you're telling me Deboer is better for the current period?
@@MH-0101how is that the only thing you grabbed out of what he said. Stop being emotional, he’s saying Deboars staff from top to bottom is better, than Sabans during the last 4
They could easily lose 3 with UGA early, Tennessee and OU on the road, plus Mizzou, LSU, and Wisconsin. Extremely suspect secondary and Edge. Also, contrary to what the video says, Bernard, Law, Prentice and hoping a true freshman balls out in the SEC isn't a strong WR lineup.
@@jagan17a I’m sorry, a WR room with 3 five stars (as backups) & 3 experienced players as starters is a great WR room 😂. Also, edge is not suspect. Keeley, Koht, QRob, Overton are all five stars that are finally getting the playing time their recruiting metrics call for. It will be effective. You can question how effective though.
Welcome back Nerds! To the Bama doubters, DeBoer has a better roster this year than the one he went 14-1 last year. They're going to be reaaaallllly good.
Welcome back. Love the channel. I still need an explainer on the College Nerds big head in you background. Peel It! Is that how you ordered it? It's been 3 years Man, explain it to us!!!!
Great breakdown! It's clear you guys do your homework and haven't relied on the casual 'experts' to fill your narative. Spot on with Saban's defense and the difficulty the team has faced over the past 5 or so years. The turnover of the assistants and players, it's amazing that Saban was able to hold things together to the end. I'd put the over/under at 3 losses. 2 losses or less would be a good year. If Milroe turns out to be dramatically better in the new system, we might be a tough out for anyone. It'll be fun to watch! And as a Bama fan, I feel like I'm playing with house money this year. If we turn out to be great team, it'll just be icing on the cake! RTR
This Bama staff is the brightest young staff in the country... is an upgrade in coaching for Alabama since early Saban staffs... gonna pay off big time... Bama beats UGA by 10.
Welcome back. Two things your discussion rattled out of my brain: 1. As a longtime Bama fan, my favorite reality check to bring up in a college football conversation is Saban is THE GOAT... and he "only" won 6 national titles at Alabama. It is so hard to win championships. Sure, he was one or two plays from having two or three more, but he was also a play or two from having two or three less. Nothing else to add there. It's just a reminder of how dumb programs get looking for a coach that will win a national championship. Also.... 2. It's about to get way harder for big time programs to win titles because it was hard enough keeping the big name players focused into January with two extra games. NIL's value may be in what it does for keeping guys around and engaged for that long of a season. 16 or 17 games in a season is a lot. Granted, only two teams have to deal with that many games, but the "Best" teams from the regular season won't be the national champs. It will look like the NFL. A team that plays the first week of the playoffs will beat the higher-ranked bye team at least once, probably twice out of the four games every year. Okay. I'll shut up. Glad to have y'all back up in here.
Well Duh. The five seed will almost always be the best or second best team in the country going up against the worst conference champion (worst conference champion probably equals anything from the 8th best team to the 30th best team)
Bama fan here: Expecting a 2-loss season, but I'd be happy for a 1-loss season (though I hope Bama dodges the SEC champ game and gets the real zero round bye, first round bye and second round bye of no champ game, G5 champ and B12 champ) 9-3 would feel disappointing, but I think they still make it to the playoffs with that, but I wouldn't be surprised if they get left out at 9-3 for the G5 champ. I think Bama beats UGA at home this year. UGA hasn't had many tough games early, and coming to BD this early in the year will be rough for them.
I am impressed with how well Alabama performed with the coaching turnover Alabama and Saban experienced, especially after Kirby departed. Wait and see if Alabama will be better coached after Saban’s departure.
@@hudsonstovall8119 I think he’s as good a candidate as any to be able to handle the pressure. He just has to make the playoff once in the next two years and win the whole thing at least once in 5 years.
Yall probably don’t care since it’ll play itself out as the season begins but Wilkin Formby is battling Elijah Pritchett for that RT spot and Miles McVay is backup LT from all indications.
Aside from secondary concerns, I want to see if the run game can take over games. The different blocking schemes seem fascinating and like you guys alluded to, RB room has way better depth and overall talent than UW did last season.
Would love to see you guys do one of these for NC State. They are an interesting team this year with all the transfers coming in and a pretty wide open conference
Would you be more bullish about a Nick Saban team (assume the same coordinators as 2023) with this roster, plus Downs, but without the Washington transfers or the roster/coaching staff that is in place now? I have felt that Alabama as a whole has been less that the sum of their parts for at least 2 seasons now, and I believe this program will be in better shape moving forward the next 3 years than if Coach Saban had decided to stay in place until age 75.
On paper the 21-23 Alabama teams were the most talented teams in the country and I think 22 was the most talented in history based on recruiting rankings.
@@CollegeFootballNerds Lol maybe on your sheet of paper. I think on any reasonable sheet of paper, Michigan, Ohio State and Texas were all more talented last year. Georgia was far more talented in 2021. (These are from an NFL prospect perspective, not blue chip ratio.)
I think they could be better and it would be tough to tell with this schedule. I do think the offense is going to take a step forward for sure this year.
The fact you have to question rather Jalen milroe was going to be the starting quarterback is insane. Jalen won the second championship 6th to make it to heisman contention over 90% for a deep ball passer he has a unique skill set with the usage of his legs that most teams would love to have and fear to play against and least but not least in game experience
@@CollegeFootballNerds And one game outweighs the whole season, the skills he clearly has, and what YOU GUYS said about Rees being in over his head and not using him correctly? Come on, y'all are better than this.
Dabo could not replace the longtime coaches which led to success. Saban could, but in 1-2 years they would take superior jobs and pay, and Saban exhausted the pond.
Making the playoffs is exhausting the pond? I don't think Alabama ever fell off. They went to a spread offense and a faster defense that could play the pass better. The only down year they had was 2022. Saban was an absolute genius for immediately shifting the offense to run heavy when the new clock rules came out.
39:50 I still think the majority of issues on offense last year were due to Milroe's inability to go through his progression. All year he was a 1 read and maybe on occasion he'd get to the second read. He'd also rarely check it down to his running backs and would opt to just sit in the pocket for an eternity until he got sacked. I'll trust DeBoer as he knows what he's doing on offense, but I am very skeptical. I just don't see a QB in Milroe
We've often differentiated between reads and progressions. Milroe could go through progressions, meaning that he would go from one WR to another, but that's always limited by blocking/time. His issue was that he didn't "read" - meaning read the defense to know where to start his progression and how to step through it. In far too many instances his eyes started with the wrong route and he didn't have time to find the right one - particularly versus Michigan who blitzed early and often. This is also where Georgia shot themselves in the foot with two spies, as it reduced pressure and didn't force Milroe to read the defense for an early throw.
My biggest concern about the post Saban era and transitioning to a new system is the defensive scheme. Once I heard it would be a 4-2-5 I immediately worried that Alabama would have trouble stopping the run against the elite teams and all of a sudden, the traditional Alabama way of establishing the run and playing great defense favoring time of possession gets weaponized against them. The one gap scheme may be better for pass rush and putting pressure on an offense but the good teams will chew the clock with the run and wear down the defense essentially neutralizing Alabama's explosive new offense and opening up the bigger plays late in the game against a worn down defense. Hopefully depth won't be an issue and the Freshman DB's can step up this year. I do think it's the better option in the new era because Saban's system is to complex to teach transfers quickly. The 2009 - 2017 days are over. Were in a new era of College Football.
Nerds!! Bama looks like a 9+ win team. Often when a great coach leaves, the incumbent inherits a winner. I think that will be the case here. Conversely, I expect the drop off for Michigan after this season. Defense is too talented to be bad this year, but I dont think they will have the talent and coaching to stay consistent.
TR last year wanted the Lacrosse player to start, so he hamstrung milroe the whole time, on top of having the worst center in CFB who liked to snap it into the ground or the side of milroe's hands, and still giving up pressure up front. Milroe was never given easy reads, so when the short reads came open, he never looked for them. He was never asked to run when he didn't see a read, so he often found himself sacked.
It's going to a really interesting season to watch. Really interested to see what the offense looks like and hope the more aggressive front 7 lead to more turnovers on D
I the receivers were the worst coached position for Bama last year, even worse than OL. Looking forward to seeing what that group looks like with coaches who are all on the same page.
I noticed oñe big difference in the o-line play. Pull and pin. It woked. Watch, o- lineman pulls and another pins the defender. One thing I don't like wku had a 21 play long time drive.
Something to maybe add to the calculus? 1. Alabama’s OLine has very different styles of players than Washington. And as you said, learning not only a new scheme but then making said calls will be hard 2. These new secondary players will need time to develop, but some significant games are early, like Ga
The transfer of Brailsford is probably as important as Nugent (a Stanford transfer) was to Michigan last year - it instantly solidifies their IOL and at the same time gives them a veteran guy to make line calls. With the addition, Bama probably has the best IOL in the country, and maybe the best OL depending on how their tackles develop. What has been a weakness for them the last 3 years could suddenly be a huge strength.
@@CollegeFootballNerds what’s your thoughts on a more complicated blocking scheme and it’s impact on milroe? He struggled on staying in contain (or leaving it) in a more simple swamp monster style OL. Washington had a lot of moving pieces
@@jdtheguitartistthe changes that they will have needed to make to their bodies are more about speed and athleticism, and most of those changes have been made in the spring. They have the right bodies right now. They are learning the scheme, and although it is more complex in appearance, it’s not a particularly difficult scheme to pick up because of the way that it’s taught. Washington’s 2022 OL largely picked it up in one offseason. Plus they have a center who has mastered the scheme present to make the calls and help keep players straight.
I know everyone says that there’s so much pressure on the coaches. I don’t think he’s feeling pressure I think he’s got a great plan for bama. We go to the playoffs this season would be a successful season in everybody’s eyes, I think they will. It’s gonna be interesting for sure I’m with the tide for good and bad. Roll Tide!!
Yeah I think radio headsets are going to make a huge difference. I think they should be turned off before the snap. Might need an additional ref that can kill the transmission.
Thanks! We will probably stick to Alabama and Ohio State for team previews, due to their schedules (they don't have any big games for the first few weeks). Georgia, Texas, Michigan, etc. We'll be getting to in the next two weeks anyway for game previews, and we'll try to discuss the teams in depth then.
We only had time for a couple of previews. The offseason had us slammed. Next week is real football so we'll have to begin focusing on game previews next.
I think a lot of it is scheme - both Bama and Georgia's 2-gap schemes are well suited to dealing with the zone power rushing schemes the other employs. Alabama has also just been the one balanced team with the offensive firepower to give them fits in losses (remember, Ohio State and LSU also lit up Georgia in that span, they just couldn't stop them). But the 2-gap theory makes sense, as it explains why there have been so many close games going both ways.
Hey guys I played college football and have been a fan of Alabama for many years but blame Nick for the recent defensive struggles that you mentioned. He's the defensive guru and the coverage busts and lack of communication fall on him. Overcomplicated defense and honestly the halftime adjustments weren't always that great
You can’t have it both ways. You can’t say that playing big-time schools back to back to back makes your schedule harder and at the same time say that scheduling an FCS opponent in October or November isn’t a schedule advantage.
It's not a scheduling advantage if all the teams are doing it. The point we're making here is you have massive imbalanced schedules where Missouri might play 1 ranked team all year and Florida finishes the season with 5 top 15 teams. If Alabama and Auburn both get a tune up before they play each other, it's not some massive advantage either way.
Every other conference plays against FCS teams, they just play them in September instead. That's more of an advantage than playing them in November, because in the first few games you're still getting things figured out and have less tape to prepare for opponents. In November you have more tape, way more reps, and know the strengths of your team, so you'd rather pick up easy wins early and play your toughest games later; that's what every other conference does. Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, LSU, Miss State, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Texas, and Vanderbilt will have each played a P5 team out of conference AND a ranked opponent (many of them more than one of each) by the end of September. Ohio State doesn't play a P5 team out of conference at all and starts their schedule against Akron, FCS Western Michigan, and Marshall. Oregon plays 2 ranked teams all year and starts their schedule against FCS Idaho, Boise State, and Oregon State. Penn State plays 2 ranked teams all year and starts their schedule against West Virginia, Bowling Green, Kent State, and Illinois. Florida State and Clemson play FCS teams in November. 14/16 of the Big 12 play an FCS in the first two weeks of the season. The SEC doesn't have a schedule advantage. They have a massive disadvantage, because they play their tough teams right out of the gate, then they have to turn around and play an SEC schedule.
I mean I don't blame Golding for the 18/22 national title losses, it was the offense that failed in both, defense gave up 2 FGs in a half of football and UGA didn't score until 1:20 in 3rd. BOB couldn't scheme without Jamo let alone Jamo and Metchie, every route was an option that would lead guys to the same area, not sure why he kept doing it.
As a Bama fan, I see them having 2-4 looses In regular season. I'll be shocked if they only get 1 loss though. Going 7-5 is about as possible as going 12-0. Last season, I thought Kevin Steel did a good job. Just look at how may teams that Alabama had to play against who's offence was in the top 25. I think it was 6 teams. Two of them were top 5. I think any DC coach would have hard time with that schedule.
7-5 would be beyond worst case. Are they being coached by Deboer or Jimbo? That would be as likely as Georgia going 8-4. 9 wins is a reasonable floor for this roster + staff combo. 8 wins would be a bad year.
Explain to me how Alabama playing 8 SEC games + @ Wisconsin is easier than Ohio State's 9 game conference schedule + Akron/Marshall/Western Michigan. I'm all ears.
@@CollegeFootballNerds cherry picking an example doesn’t support your point. 1 SEC team is not the point unless they all play Michigan or Wisconsin. But all of the SEC is playing high school (FCS) teams. So Texas has a 9 game schedule including UM. Every B1G team has a 9 game schedule plus some are playing SEC teams. That’s the point. It seems straight forward.
@@mattheww2855 15/16 teams in the SEC play an FCS opponent. But it's 14/18 in the Big Ten, 14/16 in the Big 12, and 16/17 in the ACC. The SEC isn't an outlier here. Playing an extra conference game in a conference where that game is gonna be Illinois, Indiana, Maryland, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Purdue, or Rutgers isn't impressive. Like it or not, playing 8 SEC teams is harder than playing 9 teams from any other conference; by any possible metric of what makes a game or schedule difficult, that's a true statement.
@@PirateOfPlayTime Interesting argument. You are saying that it’s okay to play a high school team (FCS) because it’s the SEC. And the SEC teams have to be better because they beat,well, other SEC teams. There’s a name for that kind of reasoning. It’s called circular logic. It’s okay the SEC plays 8 conference games and a FCS team because SEC teams are so good because they beat SEC teams.
@@mattheww2855 I said that every conference plays an FCS team so it's stupid to act like this is an SEC problem. Almost every top team has an FCS opponent scheduled every year. 8 vs 9 conference games is a completely unrelated thing, and I said that playing 8 SEC opponents is tougher than playing 9 opponents of any other conference by any possible metric of what makes a game or schedule difficult. And what I didn't say is "SEC teams are good because they beat SEC teams". Reading is fun, I promise. You should try to learn how.
Like to think I am a reasonable Bama Fan. If we can go 10 - 2 and Host a Playoff Game and Win I would be very happy with Year One. If we miss 12 Team Playoff it will be a disappointment. Too much Talent to not making Playoffs. But The Schedule is pretty with Road Games at Wisconsin, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and LSU. Also with Home Game Against Georgia. That is 5 Games Bama could lose. They will need to go 3 - 2 at worst.
Sorry to ruin the very true theory that reason doesn't live among Bama fandom, but I agree, @davidcole2337. I see 10-2. I also see 8-4. I already know it's going to hurt when the team doesn't have three timeouts at the end of each half because everything ran so smooth with Saban... And I'll still scream into a pillow when we make dumb mistakes. At least Saban was genius and went ahead and started mixing in some sloppy play the last two seasons so we'd be more prepared for 2024 season. Ha. Anywhom. Am I crazy for wanting to host a game that first week rather than having the bye? I just see nothing but bad things for teams who have all that extra time off before getting back on the field.
Because it will be the first year without Saban in 15 years which makes it interesting to both Bama fans and the fans that suffered through those years. Also, it was between Bama and Southwest Dakota State so they flipped a coin.
Should we take any team that doesn’t have a Big10/SEC schedule seriously? Not to make the playoffs but, just champion contender in general. Especially if they don’t go undefeated.
I think we can, it just matters how they play against their schedule. Clemson can't help that a lot of the ACC isn't great, but if Clemson destroys all of them we can assume they're legit (similar to Clemson teams with weak schedules in the past who won titles)
Probably not this year but just because a tough schedule isn't played doesn't mean the team isn't better than the SEC and Big 10 teams. You saw it with Clemson in 2018. I think this year, the only team with that shot would be Miami. But I'm like 99% sure they aren't.
15:40 you say no team in the nfl runs this scheme and literally every team has concepts of sabans scheme with in their playbook and teams even play the scheme as well such as the bills, the lions, the patriots and even the sb champs chiefs, also georgia runs the saban scheme he comes from saban and its the exact same scheme the only difference is kirby has more sim pressure concepts that in theory take away the big play by confusing pass pro schemes
The biggest question for me is how well will DeBoer do in the SEC. He’s a great coach, and I thought he was a home run hire, but the PAC-12 is nothing compared to the SEC. And it’s not like Alabama has had great success with first year coaches either.
I think as an X's and O's guy he'll do fine, but the question is more whether he can sustain Saban's recruiting and organizational dominance that made Alabama so successful. Ironically, the pain of switching schemes aside, that kind of suggests DeBoer will actually do great years 1-2 and may struggle more in years 3+. A good analogue to that would be how Ryan Day was immediately successful at Ohio State, but struggled to maintain it.
@@CollegeFootballNerds I mean, I think Ohio State was a lot closer to winning a national championship than a lot of people realize last year. They were really the only team that held their own with Michigan. Michigan should have blown the doors off Bama but their prior first round woes really affected their mentality.
@@marquez6548 Because Michigan played legitimately poorly vs Alabama. They shot themselves in the foot repeatedly and yet still won. Michigan played to their full potential against Ohio State and Ohio State still was driving the field with a chance to win at the end of the game.
You’re likely to see a large short term improvement. Deboer hasn’t shown any longevity, based purely on how quick he’s jumped jobs. I won’t make a judgement either way, but want to point that out. I will however call you guys out for the SEC bias. I get that you’re SEC fans with an SEC fan base, but you barely gave this staff credit when they were at Washington and kept picking against them. Now that they’re wearing an SEC patch, they’re the difference makers? I can’t roll my eyes hard enough. I don’t doubt Deboer will be successful, I just want to call out some contradictions.
We were one of the few outlets to pick Washington to beat Oregon in the title rematch. Daniel was very vocal about how stupid it was that Wash won the first time and everyone just wrote it off for their PACCG predictions. Our main issue with Washington in the playoffs was that Penix was too inconsistent and they weren’t a complete team (which reared its head big time vs Michigan).
If you want to see why Bama is mortal now just look at Auburn in state recruiting. Look at LSU in state recruiting. Part of what made Bama dominant is that it recruiting presence made its rivals worse becz players that could have been playing for their rivals signed to Bama’s roster instead. Now LSU Auburn and Tennessee are recruiting free of Saban’s gravity. Auburn is about to become very relevant again and it’s becz Saban is gone. Without Saban Bama does not glow. It is just like everyone else. And that’s on and off the field. Missed you guys✌🏾
@@EulogyfortheAngels Bama didn’t just have good recruits… Bama DOMINATED instate recruiting… Saban ALWAYS took his bite out of Louisiana recruiting… now look at what Auburn LSU and Tennessee are doing in recruiting… Saban did just recruit well… his presence made Bama’s rivals worse.
@@Fearlessleadr7 gotcha, that all seems reasonable in greater context. I may have misread some of your first post. The next wrinkle will be how the transfer portal eats at teams that underperform any given year.
Auburn and LSU won't do anything with Freeze and Kelly. Kelly poops down his leg in big games. Freeze loses stupid ones to directional schools. Auburn made their success on recruiting Georgia for the last 40 or 50 years. That was until Kirby showed up and locked it down. As long as he is in Athens AU is going to have a glass ceiling over their recruiting unless they can run off some wins against UGA (very doubtful)
