Ya just like how the 2nd emperor of Tang who abuse the succession system in place, which brought success for the faction during the civil war, that led to the corruption within the court both in ethics and political standards. Higher up tang nobles and the royalties constantly played the dangerous game of thrones until they imploded the nation and divide the kingdom for some of the most bloody period seen in Chinese history. History always repeat itself.
Sadly, no one ever managed to come up with anything that'll prevent this disaster. This isn't just people of power becoming corrupt. The mechanism of how it happens is quite parallel to how species in isolated ecosystems lose their protective characterstics. It happens roughly the following way: 1. Success removes the hurdles faced by the generation who struggled against it. 2. The institutions which brought success were developed to keep the struggles away. When the struggles are no more, these institutions lose their selective advantage. 3. So, these institutions start to degrade pretty much by natural selection. Mind it corrupt people are always around us. During the period of struggle, those people can't sustain and either causes the whole system to fail or are kicked out if the system is to survive. During the period of success, such freeloaders can ride alone, feeding off the gains from success. Hence, sucess itself antagonizes it's own existence. I don't know if it's theoratically possible to take care of this completely.
@@aniksamiurrahman6365 The tendency to corruption may be perpetual, but the rate of corruption is not. Marx expected capitalism to decline into corporatism in his own lifetime but wise governance delayed it for a century. Under the British, the banking system was heavily regulated, small businesses were protected from monopolies and a link to the gold standard was maintained. Politicians could also be sanctioned by the Legal system (House of Lords). The turning point was Bretton Woods which handed control over to a bunch of gangsters, after which each of those traditional restraints has been cast aside one by one.
"Human beings, who are almost unique in having the ability to learn from the experience of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so." - Douglas Adams
The same process that led to the end of the Tang Dynasty are paralleled in the events that led to the fall of the Roman Empire when the Praetorian Guards offered the Imperial Throne to whomsoever could pay their salaries! The greed of the Tang Prime Minister Li in cancelling the agricultural production based wealth system in order to enrich his family by introducing currency controlled by his family (precedes dollar printing parallel) was because he did not understand that money is actually goods, not the currency. Prime Minister Li did not have a clear understanding of what money really is and he was corrupt! Any government official who does not avoid conflicts of interests and allows his or her family to benefit from government business is corrupt and is harming the Economy in the longer term!
Pompey was a Satanist and installed his Evil Cult in the Praetorian Guard! To be a member of the Praetorian Guard you had to be a member of the Evil Cult!
Professor Lu studied the dynastic dynamics of various dynasties to see patterns. He said most dynasties started as peasant rebellions with some socialist ideas of primitive equality. As societies mature and become richer, corruption breeds on itself, inequality becomes more widespread, any attempt to reform the system is doomed by the special interests, decadence piles on decadence until another rebellion cleanses itself. China and Xi see the danger of corruption and try using ideology of Marxism and traditional Chinese philosophy to combat this crisis, the result is still in doubt. As for U.S. we can see everyday the symptoms of corruption. Drugs and pornography are prevalent, inequality ditto. West has used accumulated wealth taken from third world to alleviate some of the discontent internally, but now are facing pushback from more traditional forces ironically from someone like Trump. Decline is certain, the question is how fast and painful. The rest of the world is watching.
"West has used accumulated wealth extracted from third world to alleviate the discontent of their own people" What a concise way to explain exactly why Europeans here, are (still) believing in fairy tales told by the Media and not grasping that the world has changed and they are no more the pinnacle of world . I needed long hours of explanations to my friends to communicate what you have said in few words
The real symptoms of corruption are the massive inequality and homelessness. When people working 2 jobs can't afford a place to live that is corruption not pornography and drugs which are omnipresent aspects of life.
This channel has quickly become one of my favorites on geopolitics. I love how you focus on finance, which even greats like Mearshimer mostly ignore. Getting an honest assessment from the Chinese perspective creates a lot of value in this space. I agree far more than I disagree. 🤷♂️
It's quite refreshing to learn bits of Chinese history, as it is quite neglected in Europe and West in general. I also find it quite fascinating to hear a Far Eastern opinion on current world affairs, which is usually available in local languages only. Re Mearsheimer, he is a West Point graduate, not of e.g. Harvard Business School. Thus his accent on military and diplomacy rather than on other forms of power. He doesn't usually dive deeper into finance, that's more the domain of guys like Jeff Sachs.
Yes, the similarities are striking. Especially similar is hijacking and privatization of money supply through banking. I knew it was a very old game. It was this way with graineries in Mesopotamia. I didn't appreciate that it was so widespread and advanced in China also.
@@Awakening_Richard A fellow countryman of mine wrote a book called "Islamic Republic of Germany" some 30 years ago. It's a spy novel, but quite prophetic, and deals with the consequences of a rising Muslim population in Germany. The author claims the German BND agency was very interested and has interviewed him about the information contained in the book. Unfortunately it is not published in English.
Democracies are the easiest system to corrupt, and when they fall, they fall very fast. Emperors system can take from 200 to 500 years to collapse, looks like democracies need less then 80 years. This is why I hope Myanmar will stay a permanent military Junta, and forget it's hope to go back to a democracy that will be instantly bough by Endowment for Democracy and other NGO's.
I think Oligarchy can be considered a separate entity as well, just as foreign agencies. Separate in interest from that of its nation and its people. Like cancer.
@@bradhawk5997 In 2024, it's not a democracy and not a republic. 100% controlled by corporations (Blackrock, Vangurd, Statestreet) and ADL. The population have zero say, or less then 5% just to fake it. Watch "MONOPOLY Who runs the world" documentary, it's very well explained
@@bradhawk5997 The United States is considered a representative democracy. This means it has elements of both a democracy and a republic. It isn't a direct democracy, where citizens themselves vote on every issue. But it is a democracy because the power comes from the people through their elected officials.
14:14 this happened some british colonies, the same way - peasants used to pay tax by their products but once the colonial govt changed it to money, natives began to have to sell land. and now i see why the one led to the other - it’s via control of money supply.
Thanks for the insightful sharing of the fall of the Tang Dynasty vis-a-vis the decline of the USA. The following errors in grammar were noted: 1. The title of your video should read as "America's Decline is..." and not "America Decline is..."; 2. (2:17) "He (Mr Lu) was made [a] cripple..."; 3. "and she (Lu's mother) throw him in the kitchen" is ungrammatical because in the present tense, it should read as "and she throws him into the kitchen" or in the past tense, "and she threw him into the kitchen". But I think it would be better to just say "and she left him in the kitchen." 4. (3:48) "This is [a] modern copy of the book."
Is Prime Minister Littlefinger 李林甫? Even by today's standard, that's some very sophisticated economic and political strategy to transfer imperial power to oligarchical control. This guy lived in the 8th Century!
This is true of any system. Only when a people surrender to a god of mercy in humility can we achieve reform: once individual ego is humbled, it cannot sabotage the process of reform that the corruption of egotism fights against. It would be interesting to study how the cult of Guan Yin plays into this in Chinese religion/politics through history.
European friends may also be surprised by the Chinese encyclopedia of the 15th century, consisting of 11 thousand volumes, only in 2007 the number of articles in wikipedia surpassed the work of ancient Chinese scholars. "China has been long one of the richest, that is, one of the most fertile, best cultivated, most industrious, and most populous countries in the world. It seems, however, to have been long stationary. Marco Polo, who visited it more than five hundred years ago, describes its cultivation, industry, and populousness, almost in the same terms in which they are described by travellers in the present times." Adam Smith 1776.
The west has a indoctrinated cultural arrogance , it is a societal illness... It will deny itself the options for solutions just by this attitude ... Russia plays chess, China plays go , USA plays poker , and Europe plays ludo ...
Except that there is a lot of shit in wikipedia, even revisionist point of view like the "covering" of the french biggest genocide of european history during the "Terreur" in France. Genocide that still being denied and underestimated because the fee massonery has somthing to see with it...
So Chinese knew about Quantum Entanglement and Elvis 500 years ago? How do you even compare a Chinese encyclopedia with Wikipedia? What is one volume on Wikipedia?
Interesting comparison, I personally find the Spanish Empire to be a more apt comparison with the American Empire. A few key similarities: 1. Spanish Silver & Petrol Dollar - both extremely lucrative sources of income which allowed both empires to be fiscally irresponsible, such as debasement of currency - i.e. ditching Gold Standard in US or just good ol' fashioned money printing, leading to runaway inflation - shocker! 2. Universal Monarchy & "The Free Democratic World" - both of these concepts are essentially the same; the idea that Spain or the US is to be the sole ruler of the world. Anyone who opposes their values and rulership is immediately labeled as an enemy or someone opposing "progress". Spain utilized their Catholic faith as the means/justification to spread fire and sword around the world, the US uses 'human rights' & 'democracy' to do the same. 3. Countless & unnecessary wars - this is shared by both empires; both pursued numerous conflicts which had no threat to their core national interests and frequently lost these conflicts. These wars were in faraway places against enemies fighting for their own existential interests. Some examples being the Spanish invasions of Britain, the Italian Wars, the Dutch revolts, etc. Whereas the US had the Korean War,(debatable) Vietnam war, the invasions of Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Libya, etc. 4. Weak & Atrophied domestic industrial sector - by the time Spain acquired its global empire the 16th century wasn't technologically suited for a massive industrial base so Spain never developed a domestic industrial sector. The US of course, had developed the world's largest & most advanced sectors 100 years ago but since then the system has completely decayed to near non-existence. In Spain's case this led to their military becoming completely out of date and weak. In regards to the US military the trends are pointing towards the same with western military equipment's poor performance in Ukraine but things aren't conclusive yet. There are other smaller points such as the racial/cultural divisions within both empires (at least the Spanish had Catholicism as a unifying force) as well as the immense power of the nobility in Spain vs the immense power of the governmental bureaucracy or the 'Deep State' as it is sometimes called in the US. Anyway that's just my initial thoughts after seeing your video, cool topic!
Very funny, your quote, "you will own nothing and be happy". So, Mr. Klaus Schwab is not kidding when he says this. Thank you for excellent history lessons.
American culture is Anglo-Saxon at the core, and Anglo-Saxon culture is just one of the cultures in Europe. To me(it's just my opinion, people are free to disagree), America is not noted for its high culture. If it descends to chaos, what culture would likely replace Anglo-America? Latino culture or hybrid Anglo-Latino? It might not be the same culture post chaos , whether it leads to a maintenance of the (weakened) unitary state or myriads of squabbling states. I am not optimistic of an American cultural apogee
@@arcturus4067 believe it or not, there is a spiritual revival coming from Russia. The aftermath of ww3 will help us see past/through our previous biases/conflict. However this may be, may we pray and strive for this revival beyond our biases wherever this may come from 🙏🔥☦️🌎🌏🌍
I agree with your point completely. I would also like to add some hidden US history,. First you should understand those who are officially in charge in the west are mostly figureheads(proxies), because it is far too risky for those who rule, to be known by the public as rulers. Those who rule understand rebellion is possible at any moment, and that is why they hire proxies, to mitigate personal risk. An example: Marie Antoinette of France was beheaded, because the public knew she was in charge. It happens a lot in western history... There have been at least 3 secret coup d'etats by the deep-state in the USA that I can note. The first was the Founding of US Fed Reserve. That is when the original government("The Federal Government of the USA") was dissolved on Christmas eve 1913, and reformed under the new title of "THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA." This was all done while most of all the government was on vacation break. The second was JFK assassination, soon after a speech he gave to the house of representatives, detailing a campaign to rid the federal government of deceitful practices(transparency/ending corruption), he was killed, making the coup official literally and figgurativally. The third was 9-11, the symbolic spectral of the coup was how the president GW Bush being humiliated in public view, by being forced to sit through an elementary school class while it was going on, it was clear he knew a coup was occurring, by the sheer amount of fear apparent on his face. Understand USA is also merely a figure head state of the western covert ruling elite, who are spread all over the western empire, mostly in US and Europe. I believe the USA will be the last of the western empire to fall, because I believe ww3 will force covert ruling elite to flee Europe to the USA, being that it is likely Europe will be the major front. Perhaps a civil war in the USA may erupt during the world war, but at this moment I dont think it is likely to happen before then...
For a fun way to understand China, I recommend current Chinese movies like: The Battle at Lake Changjin, 2021 The Wandering Earth, 2019 Both movies have sequels/prequels.
Really enjoy your videos. Thank you for making things understandable and interesting. Love learning about China's history. Also, knowing this has all happened many times in the past makes it a little more bearable to live through. So much hope for a peaceful, prosperous, fair world, washed down the drain because of a few greedy people.
great video! Have you heard of Michael Hudson and his works? What you talk about in this video is very similar to what Michael Hudson has researched about for his entire career. He talks about how the debts of the people become too high because of corruption and society collapses within on itself until a new ruler comes and and wipes out all previous debts which greatly improves the economic situation of the people. He specifically studied this pattern in the ancient near east (now the middle east). He is also the author of superimperialism which was originally published in 1973 which was used by the USA to further perfect their current system of financial imperialism which you have talked about in many of your videos. All his works are about these topics and there are even many interviews of him posted on youtube.
Many of us believe that the decline has been a deliberate conscious effort planned and spearheaded by a small group of conspiratorial insiders. I have lived in the US all of my life, nearly 55 years. The erosion of civil liberties and prosperity has been most rapid in the last 24 years since 9/11. The pace of this decline has quickened in the last 10 years with the mental injection of gender dysphoria. Some shadowy social force has blurred the biological line between men and women as pointed out in the movie "What Is A Woman?" So we can see that the attacks on the general population are nearly infinite, reaching all manner of subjects. Meanwhile the general population is more divided now than at any other time in my life. Unless the public can unify and eradicate these most insidious attacks on the most basic truths, we have no hope of surviving as a nation. What I predict will happen is the US will break up into smaller countries in order to form firewalls against some of these attacks. In any case, we have a very difficult time ahead of us.
agree... I've been in and out of US for 30 years. I talked to many army veterans, who now have to live elsewhere because of inflation. They find today's US to be shocking.
I would put it as similar to China last Qing Dynasty era. Remember the British mission that traveled to China in 1792-93. The Chinese emperor than basically told the British that China have every things & they have no need for British goods nor technologies. Consequently, by the 1st opium war the West had by pass China economically, technologically, as well as management & organisation wise. The gist of the story was the Chinese political leaders than was so arrogant. Their's(American) mindset are China is inferior to the West in all aspect. Presently American attitudes today reflects Qing China in the past. We(American) have far superior technology, military & economic wise. Ironically, the American leaderships are playing the reverse role. Such mindset has lead the American to be surprise over & over again time after time. Mark the words of Joe Biden "China will not surpass U.S. under me" From another perspective by PPP measurement China had already surpassed U.S. back in 2014. The American political elites just can't wrap thier head around what is actually happening. That the dangerous affairs 😱😲
Interesting. China did not just invent paper but most importantly paper money, and, per your story, they also invented financial engineering at empire level, with catastrophic results (of course). They say that "history does not repeat... but rhymes", so I guess it's not exactly the same thing but overall Neoliberalism has devastated the US and general Western economy by means of overexploitation (which Keynesianism tried to prevent but could only for so long) and destroyed democracy, which cannot exist while the media is in so few hands (it's nothing but a masquerade anymore). What will happen? Unavoidably revolution. There are no gods nor "external forces" that can remedy that, the US Republic may have lost the "mandate of Heaven" but we know well that Heaven and the gods are only the grassroots down here below: it's people who do (or do not) make things happen. Hence revolution is on the menu but not quite yet: the whole older generation must go first and the young one must realize what is going on (class consciousness) and get organized (what I call "class willpower"), once that threshhold is reached it will be quick because nothing can stop the organized people. On a side note: do you, Richard, follow the "New Economic Thinking" channel by Prof. Ang? She is rather focused on analyzing the economy of China but I find her analysis fascinating.
Xie xie Richard! I love the History of China. I was in China in recent days. Of course I knew most of things that I saw but what really impressed me was the people. How they react when you are friendly and smile. I live now in Germany and Europe for almost 30 years but I am still a Brazilian from Rio, you know, Ba xi. I was in Beijing for an Exhibition of my Paintings in a Museum with others "Europeans", representing Germany and I was impressed to see how the others Artists, even involuntarily, have this colonizer way to talk, like they have have something to teach to the Chinese. I was amazed how, after 30 years in Europe, I am not a "European" and will never be, thankfully, because I will never think in that colonizer way. I appreciate very much your videos about geopolitics as well. And what I observed in my conversations with high persons in the Society China is how little they know as well about Brazil and Latin America but, even this little was more than most European. We are starting the new era in this world. It wont be like the beginning of the Tong Dynasty and maybe not like it ends but this is our time and we can talk about that as it is evolving.
The Ann Lu Shan rebellion was the nail in the coffin in which the dynasty could not recover. Corruption was a reoccurring theme in declining dynasties.
Thank you Richard! Could anyone please tell what is the film which some of the scenes from were shown in the background when talking about the rise of the Tang Dynasty (5:17, for example)? Thanks in advance
The only choice is between monarchy (or a strong centralized power) and oligarchy. An oligarchy is solely concerned with its own interests (Huashengdun). A State power with ethical dimensions (Zhonggong Zhongyang Weiyuanhui) has an inner stability and purpose. China has understood this for millennia.
the shanDong administrative clique originated as a military unit during the mythic era of god-emperors they participated in expelling baiYue peoples from the yellow river delta and solidified into the literati of qiLu responsible for countless innovations due to having a sacred mountain binding tightly to huge swaths of plains without troublesome border march. The water margin described loose events of zhu yuanZhang's ascent from conquests south to nanJing. Clearly history repeats, yet institutional knowledge is preserved regardless of who rules.
How can you pay monopoly coins when you FIRST have to spend it into existence first??? You are forcing people to borrow, and unless money supply increases then impossible to pay interest
Indeed it seams all empires are destined to decline . The reaction of the people ( when they are shamefully abused is paramount ). The French are very good at making themselves heard …. They enjoy more margin of freedom and independent thinking … not sure about the American population …
Been thinking about this very topic. Given the limited exposure I have to Chinese documents, I see the US decline more akin to the decline of the Yuan. The tolerance of corruption, money printing, inflation and endless wars are the stand out similarities.
Yuan had an awkward, almost come down to slavery in terms of Han ethnic. So it was never balance, that's why it is one of the shortest chinese dynasty. US at least lasted for 300+ years dating pre-independent era.
It's a lot more simpler than this. Tang Dynasty is too sophisticated as a civilisation compare to the American. The Tang Dynasty is about building and diplomacy. They will avoid war as much as they can. The Americans are about war and destruction to mantain it's hegemony. Its very different. Therefore they both fall for different reasons. The Americans are like the Yuan dynasty. It's all politics and transfer of wealth to the elites for the very start of the dynasty for only a whole century. This is similar with the American hegemonic approach to the world. Harvest around the world and domestically and transfer it to the elitist. USA, like the Yuan Dynasty is not designed to last forever... harvest or abuse as much as possible while it last. The elitist in the Yuan Dynasty who are Mongols that don't see themselves as Chinese. The Americans' behavior is the same...zero sum game and hegemonic and must always be on top of the food chain. The Tang lasted 300 years. The Americans at best, like the Yuan around a hundred years of dominance.
Those processes happened during the last Roman Empire. Each emperor needed to possess or have agreements with sort of private armies. The lobbyists where the senatorial famillies. They used "money printing" (metallic devaluation and concreate inflation for the people), plus what we see today with organized migrations in order to dispose of militias inside their empire in order to counter any rebellion. If you look at the details, there is so much common points today... A new ideology will also emerge. Don't forget that all former christians had been exterminated and that the "interpretation" oof christianity was a pure roman "product" ! It also happened with judaism: quiet all jewse converted to former christians and jewish authorities changed the books of the religion to convert new jews (genetically, actual israelians are closer to minor asian populations!) The islam built itself on the assomption that christianism was 100% roman and 0% from the "book". But they did the same modifications in order to fit the interests of the Empire of Damascus, now the Saudi Empire ! It doesn't means that religions are not interresting, but it's necessary to have knowledge in order to skeep from "power influences"... And it's important to observe that the Empire will use a "new" religion, probably modifiying the islam in order to fit their machiavelic plan.
The modern working class is not equivalent of land owning farmers of ancient China, they don't own the means of production. If they can afford owning a roof over their heads, they can call themselves middle class.🤣😂🤣
good luck with that. We shall see, maybe, if the dollar doesn't get us the climate will. Power will hold on as long as it can, any way it can; only the peoples can make a change.
Please please, Richard... If you do discuss, do discuss about the dynasties of China, I have studied about Persia and India, but I dont know the list of dynasties and how it changed the technical development of China as a whole. I do know that China was developing gunpowder while Dark ages were present in Europe. And I know about Hsüen Tsang Buddhist monk/traveller who travelled to India.
18:42 For what it's worth, from this time stamp, this is the interpretation that I agree with most (almost 100%) from what I've seen so far in your videos (maybe because it is not so couched in nefarious motives and inflammatory terminology, at least to an American's ears; maybe think of Americans as more bumbling and short-sighted on average than you think, although I understand why you wouldn't want to underestimate us, either). But you know what I have said about Argentina, and in that context, you might see why I would think in terms of a U.S.-version of an Argentina-like 'hitting rock bottom' moment, where, at that point, the U.S. is forced to fix itself (self-cleanse? that sounds pretty strong). Ironically, I have this vague sense that the U.S. will need a charismatic leader such as a Milei, who is also ideologically committed to a technocratic administration, to pull it off with a relatively peaceful transition of power and without a complete societal breakdown. (Probability of such a leader emerging: yikes, I don't want to think about it, yet). Absent the technocratic administration, incidentally, I think you do get chaos, as manifested by things like taxation on wealth and the reactions thereto. Meanwhile, I think you precisely diagnose the real problem, which is simply the need to properly regulate the financial and monetary systems, with the blocking force being that the bankers are currently getting too rich on being able to sell what is in far too many cases 'garbage' to people under the status quo (with the politicians they sponsor being too successful). * Believe me, I've tried "writing to my congresspeople" about this very issue, but only to satisfy myself that such a thing to do is pointless. And yet, I'm still pretty sure my conclusion will be more optimistic than yours (because I'm American?). In my not-so-humble opinion, there are too many smart, self-interested, actual rich people in the U.S. (i.e., not phony financiers) to let the chaos happen. Anyway, I really did try to articulate my version of this view in previous comments, up to and including the idea that the sooner this befalls the U.S., probably the better (which is one of the things you might disagree with). Hence, my interest in, among other precipitating factors, the idea of a wholly independent RMB-based trading system (think Chinese industrial, consumer, and technology goods to Russia and food and natural resources to China, or Chinese industrial, consumer, and technology goods to Brazil and food and natural resources to China, or Chinese industrial, consumer, and technology goods to the Middle East and natural resources to China... am I wrong about this pattern?). * Incidentally, this is what prompted the question about whether China's management of the RMB and such a system is apt to begin to create "financial harvestings" to its own benefits within this system, i.e., "monetary seigniorage," because now RMB is the coin of the realm. (I understand that you see the USD-based system as being at the end of a gun, but that is hard for my American brain to wrap my head around, at least as far as the possibility of an RMB-based system that doesn't function effectively the same way in the longer-run.) Anyway, some preliminary thoughts, but perhaps you'd care to know that there are times we are not quite as far apart as other times, but once again, I may have misinterpreted your comments or otherwise offended your sensibilities. P.S. I think I am caught up on the videos of yours I took interest in, so please rest easy. Thanks, as always. 🙂 P.P.S. An interesting Chinese history lesson to boot! Probably the most valuable part of the video, actually.
Chinese financial sectors has been "harvesting" its own population for decades. Because China after coming out of the soviet model, follow the American model. But eventually we found out that the American model, as I will explain in my next model, is a result of evolution of 400 years of colonial economic model, and China has out grow the comfort zone of the US. (China is too big in a US led unipolar world centered around USD). It is starting to create its own gravity. So China has two choice to continue forward (to continue to grow). 1. Seek to replace US, or 2. seek another path. The action China has taken seem to reflect the second path, China's behavior in UN, it's military behavior and monetary behavior reflect that as well. Many Chinese economists consider that to be the wrong choice, they consider China should be more aggressive in push forward its own system with BRSIC, even if the system is not well thought out, flawed, or even similiar to the US current system. There are on going debates and some of my favor economist and philosphor that I feature in my channel are actually ban from chinese social media. Because Change comes with cost, and on going US decision have shown that it is willing to go "very far" to safe guard its position. When so much is at stake, China is no longer making a decision for China, but for the entire humankind. If we mishandle, we might hand our future generation a nuclear winter planet. Unfortunately many of those topics, people do not have the interest or wisdom to explore. They want simple narrative, "Trump good, biden bad" "China is moral, US is inmoral". It's like climbing a mountain of true knowledge, the higher you go, the more loneliness you have to endure.
When America was at its richest culturally, we worked hard to build a New Europe in the Western Hemisphere which was founded on the principles of Anti-Monarchy and unfettered private enterprise. This worked very well for America but the cultural decay happened after World War II and especially after the Cold War when every iteration of European Empire fell. We lost our principles, our moral integrity, and our ego became huge. This decay is also reflective in our decline. America was too young of a nation when it was given unimaginable power and wealth. America barely centralized its financial institutions after its victory in the Civil War before it was hit with the Great Depression and dragged into multiple world conflicts. New China has alot of motivational zeal and national energy because the dominant Han Chinese feel like they've been suppressed by the Manchus, the Europeans, and the Japanese. It has been since the 1400's-1500's during the golden age of the Ming, that the Han Chinese were dignified. China's cultural mission in my opinion is to fully retake the cultural leadership role of the Sinosphere world that is still being held by the Japanese. They are rebuilding their trade routes and diplomatic channels back to the way it once was. It also comes at a time when the Northern Border with the steppes is the most stable it has ever been. The declining role of the US dollar and its hegemony in finances, will just serve to further open up China to global markets and stabilize the economy. China succeeded in evading the Middle Income Trap as shown by its technological achievements and independence from the imperialists. I love how much China has insights within its own history of financial policies to understand the best route for China to take. I see New China having a solid 200 years of stability and we haven't even seen the fruit of that force unleashed YET. The fast collapse of the Yuan Dynasty, the example you've given of the Tang Dynasty/An Lushan Rebellion, and the quick disintegration of American power within 30 years after the end of the Cold War are blueprints of what not to do in a global leadership role. BRIC's and the BRI are very smart humanitarian and geopolitical moves by China that ensure that the Era of Western Empire will never return once it has fallen, and it will fall within the next few YEARS. (Less than 10 is my prediction)
In general, I agree with the diagnosis. I am sick of imposed ideologies, tribal democracy instead of substantive discussion and financial colonialism but a BRICS+ currency based on gold will not heal the situation. Money issuance far exceeds gold supply, and this means that a reduction in money issuance and secondly, that 40% of it (rumors) will go to buying gold instead of investment or spending in the economy. Moreover, countries that do not mine gold will have to import it, worsening their trade balance and reducing the amount of available currency. They will be cannibalized by several commodity countries and China. They are now balancing this deficit with trade with the US and the EU. The weakening of the Dollar and Euro will trigger inflation in these markets and reduce consumption and therefore imports. The isolationist politicians and financiers will be happy. They will be able to tighten the screw even more. In 2015, the Dollar had about 53% and the Euro 28% of the denomination in the international debt market. Although weakened, they will charge higher interest rates, and the total world debt is already more than 300 trillion Dollars. The only way out will be increasing protectionism and austerity policies. Already the global debt-to-GDP ratio is almost 300%, and the example of Greece shows that in such a situation the economy and standard of living falls, only the debt increases dramatically. This is not tenable. Is this really a dedollarization scenario or a scenario of the US imperialists? I am very impressed with the progress China has made, but I have the impression that they, along with other countries, want to knock the US off the top of the pyramid, but leave the arrangement below unchanged. Personally, I would use the term "food chain" instead of pyramid. China feigned weakness by gathering strength. Now they talk about peace, but have territorial disputes with most of their neighbors. I have an idea for a currency and economic system that can restore balance, but I don't know how to make it independent of a single player.
Sometimes i feel like chinese historians are being heavily biased. Li longji was bad emperor but they praised him like the second coming of li shimin. The one that washed away degradation that come because of wuzetian. Blaming everything on wu zetian. Yes she was bad, she was lustful, she was cunning etc. but Tang dynasty still run somewhat fine. Xuanzhong was the emperor that bring down the tang. He was the one that appoint li linfu and an lushan. Why blame it to Wuzetian? In fact i can argue his early reign was somewhat stable because he inherited wuzetian's some what stable china. Yes controversial but thats the fact. OOT: Same with zhuge liang. He lose battle after battle. Historian regard him as god like tactician and blame it all on his subordinate and his emperor liu shan. In fact liu shan, his emperor told him and i quote it liberately "we dont have the fucking money god damn it". Not only he didnt listen he even scolded his own emperor because he used to be his teacher. He went to war and lose. And then what happens? Its not his fault its liu shan's fault, its ma liang's fault, its Li Yan's fault. Everyone is at fault but not godlike zhuge liang who actually lose the battle. On other hand Li Xin lose ONE battle because he was betrayed by the prime minister (heck yue fei still considered as a great general because of things like this) but lead the last qin battle against qi thus unifying china for the first time. Historian remember him as dumb and reckless general.
Very thoughtful analysis, Richard. And presented very effectively. You are right that the people who profit from the status quo have no incentive to reform the system. They have promoted or been indifferent to utterly mad cultural decay and have zero foresight. They seem to want to crash the system deliberately but it doesn't seem to occur to them that messing with, say, hydrocarbons and the food supply may simply result in a diminution or collapse of the transportation and food supply systems. Similarly, importation of millions and millions of third-world people is utter madness as cultural homogeneity is precious asset that should never be compromised, let alone destroyed. The political class may think that they will exercise political power and have fun doing that but I cannot identify any of the political class who can contemplate the collapse of the cities or the power grid. They seem to think they're creating a great science fiction movie that will have a happy ending. None of the political class are raising any red flags. None. The Jehovah's Witnesses see World War I as the definitive demonstration of God's knowledge that mankind is incapable of governing itself. Millenia of experimentation with different forms of government were thereby shown to be for nought. Man just is not up to self government. Thus with that war the end times have been ushered in until God establishes divine rule. I may have butchered the Witnesses' theology but the basic thought is absolutely correct. Man cannot and will not govern himself and the immense slaughter and destruction of the Great War is now forgotten or ignored. So now you see the morons and man-children play at Junior Geostrategist and proceed to poke the bear and otherwise enrage the world with accursed US meddling everywhere. Americans in particular have managed to destroy the greatest experiment in self government in history into a plutocratic joke aided and abetted by judicial tyranny and treason.
I agree with you re: BRICS being a positive change agent. I've just started reading Fukuyama's end of history, last man standing book. My understanding is that it highlights what seems to be (and ultimately is always) playing out - humanity will ultimately reject the unstable status quo that fails to recognise the aggregate needs of most, and the current system, which will finally be replaced. I understand that Fukuyama pointed out (as you have) democracy is not necessarily the highest order of humanity that achieves what his (and Heidel's) philosophy regard as the end of history. I believe the global majority will increasingly turn their attention to creating their own parallel global community that operates independently of an increasingly isolated 'west' rather than wait for them to reform. The likes of the US, EU, NATO block will fight reform, agitating and attempting to derail the majority. This may at times be painful for some of the majority but eventually the minority will need to accept the outcome and cooperate in order to survive. Perhaps that process of moving to acceptance and constructive cooperation will involve internal collapses, however it could also be reform arising from pragmatism. I hope the transition doesn't lead to conflict. My long-term view is that agitation by the west weakens the west economically and politically. Not allowing their politics to derail the positive transformation of humanity will hopefully safeguard the future for most of us.
Tang dynasty collapse start with a devastating civil war and disobedient military leaders that lead to the divide of the nation after the civil war, so far there are no sign of it, on another hand, financial bankruptcy and internal political party conflict and decline of military with growing external rivalry are more similar to Ming dynasty had to face when it comes to its end
Dynasties had good leaders when they were new, and bad leaders before they collapsed. That is what we see today in Branden and Trumf. While they are completely different systems, why are they so similar? New dynasty arises from revolution, so it represents people's will, otherwise the revolution wouldn't succeed. Then good times come and people become complacent. Bad actors then come in and grab money and power which leads to the downfall. The cycle restarts.
I will answer a remark about why the rest of us did not learn the history of China. You said that we didn't learn it because it was one of the unimportant countries. It seems to me that this is an erroneous opinion. I have not read the history of China, not because it was ever an unimportant country. But because the history of China was not intertwined with the history of Russia (except for two centuries under Mongol rule). As you correctly noted, China did not seek expansion, due to geography and culture. When I was in Thailand once again, I read the history of Thailand and realized that Thailand is, in fact, one of the ends of the Chinese ecumene. And after that, I started reading the history of China.
Haha, very well done. Making Chinese history entertaining success. One wonders why the Tang rulers let the Li family move that far without stopping him
Hi Richard, appreciate the videos that you make. I'm always looking for channels that give actual opinions by "China Experts" who are from China and not self proclaimed "China Experts" from half a world away. What's your take on China becoming more "open" in the sense it allows for less suppression of ideas and discourse? I'm probably biased based on my experience but so far the only example we've seen of a society that has the ability to be innovative (in the "0 to 1" sense, China is already good at the "1 to 100" innovating) seems to be predominantly one that allows for unconventional thinking and discussion on these ideas. I have hope that the Chinese people will be able to express themselves more freely as a form of a pressure release valve on society and to encourage those who have unconventional ideas to surface and be able to allow their ideas to wilt or take root in society. I also know that this on the surface seem highly contradictory to the governments goal of having control of the narrative and situation at home and won't appreciate an outlet that takes a life of its own. Do you see things changing in China today that can allow for this slow introduction of more open discourse? Is there even an awareness in Chinese society? Do share your thoughts, thanks!
freedom of expression got worst since early 2010s mainly because of the hybrid war against China on information space, and Chinese government is force to go to great length in controlling the narrative. I believe you are familar with how color revolution works. Of course, it's a double edge sword and people prefer more freedom, and I will say suppression damages the efficiency of government and society function in China. Its not likely to change anytime soon Im afraid
This video describes events but misunderstands the revelance of things said. The central misunderstanding seems to be around maintaining distributed production and therefore large scale distributed demand as the basis of real wealth. Once PM Li started stripping the populace of their ability to produce total production would have fallen causing wild swings. The monetary system is a mechanism to encourage production and its inherent qualities create large benefits unless there are no democratic accountability mechanisms able to reign the bad actors in. There is a reason that the societies with the highest levels of democratic accountability are also the societies of greatest wealth and power. Maintaining accountability for the powerful remains the greatest challenge for any society
@@Awakening_RichardAn unstable government is an unstable society. A collapsing society is a weak one. Legitimacy and cohesion IS society. China as a rising power is arguably because of Deng Xiaoping reforms which distributed state power and allowed for industrialization creating the modern state which can rival the US.
Very interesting video, I thought only An Lushan was the main cause of Tang Decline The west is facing what Rome had with the crisis of the 3rd century with the ongoing overall moral decline. not sure if they will have Aurelian and Constantine to clean the mess
@@Awakening_Richard Disenfranchisement of the masses for the profit of the few which then leads to unsavoury individuals to exploit the opportunity causing disastrous turmoil in the process. these sort of thing are always a disaster no matter which era.
Please do talk about the private sector military alliance with the banking sector! It's a really interesting topic Richard. Thank you for your video again!
If you are looking into more recent Chinese history, try finding a copy of Jonathan Spence’s “The Search for Modern China”. It’s a textbook used in colleges, so can be expensive to purchase. Maybe your public library may have a copy. There’s an older but still very readable history of 3-4000 years of Chinese history and that’s Rene Grousset’s “The Rise and Splendor of the Chinese Empire”. It came out in the 1950s - but 70 years old is nothing compared to the length of Chinese history. 😊 Enjoy!
@@jaynutter85 another book, a specialty book, if you’re interested in the Tang Dynasty is Edward Shafer’s “The Golden Peaches of Samarkand”. It’s about the trade or tribute items during the Tang Dynasty, from the peaches from Samarkand to elephants from SE Asia.
Financial services always state: "Past performance doesn't not imply future performance." Did they lie to me!? Or does this pertain only to faked markets?
I would think that the most likely way for the USA to lose the status as king would be a world war, ie end of the uk empire. Its important to realize before ww2 that Germany (read China) and the UK (read USA) were huge trading partners. At the end of ww2 both were completely destroyed. For what its worth the USA hasn't really tried to stop the euro from becoming the reserve currency but their economy has too much fat. Anyways I'm biased so thats my take.
You did a nice job with this. I've subbed. You have a unique view as one with good Chinese connection as well as USA knowledge & insight. Yes, of course, your unspoken connections are grasped.
