Amory Lovins: A 40-year plan for energy

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www.ted.com In this intimate talk filmed at TED's offices, energy theorist Amory Lovins lays out the steps we must take to end the world's dependence on oil (before we run out). Some changes are already happening -- like lighter-weight cars and smarter trucks -- but some require a bigger vision.
TEDTalks is a daily video podcast of the best talks and performances from the TED Conference, where the world's leading thinkers and doers give the talk of their lives in 18 minutes. Featured speakers have included Al Gore on climate change, Philippe Starck on design, Jill Bolte Taylor on observing her own stroke, Nicholas Negroponte on One Laptop per Child, Jane Goodall on chimpanzees, Bill Gates on malaria and mosquitoes, Pattie Maes on the "Sixth Sense" wearable tech, and "Lost" producer JJ Abrams on the allure of mystery. TED stands for Technology, Entertainment, Design, and TEDTalks cover these topics as well as science, business, development and the arts. Closed captions and translated subtitles in a variety of languages are now available on TED.com, at www.ted.com/translate
If you have questions or comments about this or other TED videos, please go to support.ted.com

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30 апр 2012

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Комментарии : 316

@ChemicalChrisOttawa 12 лет назад

I love the guy with the big green pillow! He goes from sitting, clutching it, to lying down, too awesome, lol *he appears throughout, but can find him easily right at the end

@AvangionQ 9 лет назад

Compared to what we're actually doing, this is incredibly optimistic ... makes me wish I knew who to kick to get these plans going into motion ...

@rusca8 7 лет назад

@MinhNguyen-wz2wn 4 года назад

Donald Trump

@Galantasy 12 лет назад

I love this video, so good to see someone who is hopeful for the future once in while.

@mc2gregory 12 лет назад

An elegant and inspiring presentation. Well done, and thank you!

@guadalupeestrada410 6 лет назад

Not a philosophical discussion on integrated design, so I understand the negative comments. However, as an aspiring mechanical engineer, I encourage you watch his presentation to its completion, writing down anything you don’t understand to fully absorb the information.

@Oblentehands 12 лет назад

Thanks for uploading!

@AngilasGuy 12 лет назад

Pleeeaaaase post more energy related videos. This stuff is important.

@ChristopherJManess 12 лет назад

Very informative presentation. Well done.

@ManoharChannel 12 лет назад

Great video! I'm glad I saw it!

@Geo877 12 лет назад

Brilliant talk, thanks Amory Lovins

@ClemonsKunkel 12 лет назад

That was an AWESOME video. I work in construction and have installed roof vent fans that are solar and wind power for years and they only get better, he is right we need change and I do see it happening, we just need to do more. Very informative. I Like the idea of Reinventing Fire!

@Games4Dummies 12 лет назад

Is he using powerpoint? His presentation is amazing, very modern, simple and easy to comprehend. Loved it!

@OriginalRipndip 9 лет назад

It would be nice to have a now simplified presentation with links to implementation for average citizens.

@austininflorida 12 лет назад

I have a few questions. Why is fusion not mentioned, exactly? Is it just too far off? I saw another TED talk about thorium reactors. Would those be viable?

@aarongrooves 12 лет назад

He never said that they could crash the grid. He said that our grid can handle when individual plants "break," and that "the grid can handle wind and solar power's forecastable variations." Go back and watch from 19:43.

@steve357g 11 лет назад

Great talk! Everybody there was paying attention too (@ 2:47)

@chintupods 12 лет назад

Awesome vid !!

@bobbyhill3323 12 лет назад

I'm glad this video came today. Yesterday I watched two documentaries about how running out of oil would basically destroy our modern society. This gives me hope again.

@Eiden193 12 лет назад

does anyone know what software he uses to write the graphs from 10:30 ?

@vel0_rouge 10 лет назад

Anyone else notice that at about 2:30 he said "we can eliminate our addiction to oil and coal", then the symbols for oil, coal and nuclear disappeared?

@AndrewDodson_AdamsAtoms 9 лет назад

hes a shill for natural gas companies. You can notice him slip it in around 18 minutes

@malarbusto 9 лет назад

Andrew Dodson But earlier, at 2.45, he envisages a 30% drop in gas usage

@AndrewDodson_AdamsAtoms 9 лет назад

malarbusto who cares if America consumes 30% less NG. We are currently building around 5 natural gas liquefaction export terminals for billions of dollars each. The rest of the world is planning on 10,000 additional coal plants in the next decades... America shifting its consumption of energy marginally does squat to make the world a greener place... I am just trying to be honest. Understand the FF companies are international, all this crap from RMI is just "green propaganda"

@pariexon1107 7 лет назад

I approve of this message :)

@Viddaric 12 лет назад

I can state without irony or exaggeration that this video has given me new hope for the future of humanity

@theoj4234 9 лет назад

Somebody knows what is the character font that is used in his presentation?!

@rusca8 7 лет назад

I bet Helvetica Neue Ultralight. Though not sure.

@lesliefortier6595 4 года назад

I think progress is soo cool!

@TheRezvi89 12 лет назад

does anybody know the software used for this presentation ?

@philthomas3437 8 лет назад

8:25 I see a new episode of My Strange Addiction coming soon

@skibumwilly1895 11 лет назад

In “Occupying Chairlifts” a simple rule tweak on inheritance ends up changing the direction and purpose of modern human life! Here’s a fair way to transition forward to where we’re rewarded for cooperating and creating instead of competing and conquering. It's something specific we can demand. If this isnt the best answer, at least we’re thinking about what might be. Are we really just this close to having it work right? Oh yeah, it's a Ski movie! “Occupying Chairlifts” on RU-vid!

@Trazynn 12 лет назад

This is why I'm subscribed to TED.

@MrKlonik 12 лет назад

Really nice presentation. What's the program he used?

@Mderojasdierssen 11 лет назад

what program is used to make that presentation? Anyone?

@TheTpointer 5 лет назад

i bet keynote.. apple app

@AaaaghJOE 12 лет назад

I WANT IN ON THIS!

@jordansage9655 6 лет назад

22:40 - 23:00 that is a huge point that seems generally unrecognized by the public. PUC and Utility Monopolies are rewarded NOT to reduce people's rates NOR to develop renewable sources in most places. Rather, they are guaranteed a profit each year and have incentive to reward big projects for new power plants to their contracting buddies.

@lostagainrob 12 лет назад

I love his opening joke! Funny man

@Daedana 12 лет назад

I have assumed so. You don't really see solar panels anywhere. It might be that they are not as cost effective as some other options and that is why they haven't gotten used as much, as some other options.

@since1990kevin 12 лет назад

Can someone explain to me what he means by charging by distance not the gallon at 10:00 I am not sure what he means but if that is what he means then that would not help unless pricing is low on mileage.I drive a Hyundai Elantra 2003 my milege per gallon is 21 with pricing 4 dollars a gallon each mile cost me about 20cents (thats low) and this are hard times it would only make sence if it was a 1cent a mile. still how would you charge the people is it a monthly bill? questions still out there?

@jhulsla 12 лет назад

darpa net was one the early incarnations of what we call the internet. And that is most definitely a military season. Also note, Universities were also working on networking computers at the same time. The two initiatives came together to grow into the internet.

@oO_ox_O 12 лет назад

Well great and what with all the stuff that is depended on oil?

@giovannifoulmouth7205 11 лет назад

What's with the complete disregard for wave, tidal, geothermal and LFTR? very disappointed :(

@vaeshi 12 лет назад

Can someone please tell me what software did he use to present his idea?

@cwe5590 12 лет назад

Does anyone know what type of presentation software he is using?

@Iker888 12 лет назад

Now that I think about it, you're probably right. Given the massive cost of retrofitting factories and buildings, it's not an option most enterprises will eagerly embrace, especially when you think of all the other less complicated alternatives to cut costs (including corruption and legal loopholes). The general trend is still, after all, that the less envornmentally friendly you are, and the more you exploit your workforce, the more succesful you will be.

@trock30000 12 лет назад

I love clean energy

@jespermathiasnielsen 12 лет назад

Any idea which software was used for the presentation?

@subradford593 9 лет назад

Thanks for sharing! -- And for your work. The naysayers on this thread remind me that cynicism is an easy rationale for inaction. Much of what we call "apathy" is really a state of despair at the lack of leadership and hopeful paths forward. Lovins' vision is promising. Is he promising too much? -- Or just challenging us to pull our heads out of this tar pit and realize we actually do have choices and don't have to just sit here and go extinct? Why not be part of the solution and lend a hand? What exactly is there to lose? If the theory's not perfect, what are you doing to improve on it? I think we owe it to future generations do our best to see what's possible. It's time to lead, follow or get out of the way!

@NezzyNesbitt 10 лет назад

What is he using to present??

@MouseMaiden 10 лет назад

I think he is using Keynote to flip through slides. Whatever designer created his info-graphics deserves a hand.

@Crazygon1998 9 лет назад

I love this idea but now think what it would coust to a constry to do this chances in terms of money and mind changing.While changing not after

@IanYatesDude 12 лет назад

I like the quote "not all the fossils are in the oil" :)

@jasonmyintUK 12 лет назад

What software did he used?

@STEFAZON500 9 лет назад

There is a fundamental flaw in Lovins theory of saving energy, Saving energy is like saving money: everytime you invent a new way of saving money or energy you come up with 10 new things to use it on and has been the case over and over again.

@madman3891 7 лет назад

"everytime you invent a new way of saving money or energy you come up with 10 new things to use it on and has been the case over and over again. Reply 4" Are you suggesting that we ignore it then? He did make the point that the energy production should come from a cleaner source, by using your analogy of saving money it would equal to spending that saved money on more productive things.

@kimweaver3323 6 лет назад

That is only if you make bad choices. Otherwise, you make good choices in your spending and have an enhanced life.

@dojohansen123 12 лет назад

I think you're right. Unfortunately he didn't even try to demonstrate any of his claims, so we can't know whether he has any reasons for contesting your point or if he has just neglected practical issues like "could we really cover all land with solar panels AND wind mills?". The talk gives the impression he focused on cost, and we all know to what extent economics deserves the badge of "science". (In no other field is predictions constantly disproven with little or no consequence to theory!)

@Games4Dummies 11 лет назад

this presentation is amazing! is that powerpoint and what's the font?

@Randy778 12 лет назад

Thanx for this interesting upload. The US needs an overhaul! Why don´t follow the rest of us?

@b22chris 12 лет назад

what did they do?

@Bvic3 11 лет назад

Very optimistic views. Achieving such efficiency seems unrealistic. And the challenges to achieve the oil to elec transition requieres numerous new technologies. And for the growth of renewable energies, this will requiere enormous amounts of capital, that will not be easy to find in a period of no-growth economy ...

@dojohansen123 12 лет назад

His selling consulting. And as with most consultants, it's hard to know if he actually knows what he's on about unless you happen to be an expert yourself. And from what I've heard supposed experts say, this stuff is... at least very surprising.

@jerrylittlemars 12 лет назад

MAKE THIS VIRAL!

@gavwah 12 лет назад

Good video, but what about non-thermal applications of oil and coal?? Oil is still the primary raw material to produce the plastics and carbon fibres integral to improving efficiency, and coal is needed in metallurgical processes to make Iron/steel, aluminium etc (titanium is currently produced using oil-derived coke). I don't know any commercially viable replacements for these processes. When he says 'zero oil/coal', does he only mean for the electrical industries?

@52111centrumcz 12 лет назад

That doesn't reduce anything; you need to keep those powerplants running anyway, because of ramp up/down abilities of standing power plants.

@TheLivirus 12 лет назад

He's not talking to the consumers. He's talking to private enterprise. He's trying to make them realize they're about to miss the business opportunity of an entire industry by clinging to fossile fuels. He's not talking about what's out on the market, he's talking about the possibilities of modern technology. He gave a few examples of actual commercial electric vehicles just to alert them that it's going on as we speak. They're being overrun.

@cephmyster 12 лет назад

the guy holding a pillow* lol

@iamtocoolforyou1000 12 лет назад

fusion is the way to go :D

@dojohansen123 12 лет назад

What was pointed out to you is that solar power simply has too low energy intensity.The average American uses 250 kWh/day, equivalent to 11 kW. At 40W/m^2 that's 250 m^2 of panel per person, ignoring embedded energy (currently halves the net contribution of solar PV) and any energy required to operate (neglible). We should do solar. We should NOT think this will cover the production side of things.

@theatheistpaladin 11 лет назад

Actually, the ultra light vehicle concept of which he speaks of can be applied to electric cars. That would extend the rage without any improvements to batteries. Then building on a fast charge infrastructure and battery swap services and much of "range anxiety" will disappear.

@theatheistpaladin 11 лет назад

Yes, that does make sense. Just that you are not accounting for something. Renewables tend to be small and distributed. While traditional power tends to be large and Central. That is harder to manage in truth.

@52111centrumcz 12 лет назад

Its EVERYWHERE and FREE once you get the generators - you don't understand its not important to have a resource, but to be a gatekeeper to energy sources that you are paid to enable others to acess for little or no work. THAT is their model.

@oO_ox_O 12 лет назад

what rare metals?

@BloodRedCypher 12 лет назад

2:46 did anyone else notice the guy holding the pillow?

@dojohansen123 12 лет назад

I agree that quality has suffered, but I'm not sure I agree it's a shame. The whole point with TED is to spread ideas, and making it less elitist probably helps towards that end. I'm sure quality was even better when it was a closed invitation-only conference that 1000 people got to experience every year in Monterey. :)

@LeonidasGGG 12 лет назад

"not all fossils and in fuel" - loved it.

@0MoTheG 12 лет назад

That would work if the market would "work". Sadly the pricing is not working, energy is highly substituted, damage / long time costs is not priced, the market is not transparent.

@ApocDevTeam 12 лет назад

as i said, when supply falls the market will react with higher prices. the higher the price, the more likely alternatives will be used. this is 100% certain when alternatives are cheaper than using oil itself. you can already see the effects, oil is getting more expensive, as a result people use it less. just wait till it reaches a really high price and corporations will be forced to invest and use alternative energy (which they're already in doing in large)

@donaldclark9649 10 лет назад

There are all of these great ideas from TED conferences that I don't see in my state of Missouri. (Except for Factor E Farm) Where are the people on the internet that I can make connections with, to effect positive change? A side note: I really want to call him "McLovin" for no reason. So anyways, I have watched other presentations from Mr. Lovins and it was all the exact same information. (I do understand that public speaking is a skill in itself.)

@robertweekes5783 10 лет назад

To talk to other smart people about real energy solutions check out the Energy from Thorium website, Facebook page and LFTR RU-vid videos from Kirk Sorensen!

@52111centrumcz 12 лет назад

Titanium is used by reducing with chlorine. Iron/aluminium uses carbon, but aluminium uses it for electrodes.

@KimoSully 12 лет назад

I find it ironic that he claims large generating stations can fail in seconds and crash the grid, but somehow renewable generating equipment will be able to disconnect and reconnect seamlessly.

@oO_ox_O 12 лет назад

My point was that the less oil use you use now for driving and heating, the more is left for the petrochemical industry tomorrow, and subsidies into alternatives to oil might be justified by this.

@livefreeallways 12 лет назад

Came out with a car made from hemp and fueled by hemp. Look it up. There is a vid on you tube somewhere with old footage.

@Trazynn 12 лет назад

10:00 Why would charging for the mile be better than charging for the gallon? If it was by the gallon then the most economical use of that gallon would be rewarded.

@PascalCFortin 6 лет назад

i think you made a little mistake because i can not figure out what is clean coal i don't think their is such a thing coal is dirty and will always be dirty ............

@andrewcliffe4753 6 лет назад

Tesla is a aceing them. The only way Tesla can fail would be America's own traitors thwarting Musk

@Dewkeeper 12 лет назад

He made multiple mentions to natural gas, which has the potential to serve as a potent transition resource. The fact of the matter is that nuclear plant rollout is slow as hell, even with public motivation, so unless LFTR's become magically designed, tested and approved, nuclear is too slow for responding to shifts in the energy table. The idea of course is to reduce the amount of energy wasted while growing alternate energy production and his predictions seem sensible in that regard.

@dprimetime69 12 лет назад

Hunter and Amory are heroes. So thankful for their contributions!

@rudde7251 6 лет назад

Excluding nuclear from the future is the dumbest and worst for the environment.

@Veladan 5 лет назад

No-one is excluding it, it's just unaffordable.

@chapter4travels 3 года назад

@@Veladan Not for long.

@dojohansen123 12 лет назад

It may be "easy to comprehend" but the simplicity has the major drawback that it is completely impossible to tell if he just made it up or has any factual basis for his claims. I for one remain sceptical, and hope this kind of presentation doesn't lead to people taking the energy challenge less seriously.

@TheS4akella 6 лет назад

Would like to help with your technology in India

@Tutankh89 12 лет назад

There's an issue here of relative versus absolute decoupling. To put it simply, efficiency increases in the UK for example may mean we use 10% less energy and thus 10% less fossil fuels. However, don't discount the fact that while in the UK they are increasing efficiency, they are increasing the amount of cars in China (to use a global example) So, when you take this into account... what's the actual rate of resource use reduction? Not less, that's for sure. An often forgotten consideration.

@mikey2856 12 лет назад

not sure if grateful or upset that i'll watch the next 25 minutes with this image in my mind

@livefreeallways 12 лет назад

Speaking of elements for a better car, look at what ford did with hemp.

@JackMayerz 12 лет назад

Take it up with Carlos slim.

@Phyrexious 12 лет назад

Yes, because judging someone on their clothes who you've seen for only 2 seconds is a good way to determine the content of the TED video.

@oO_ox_O 12 лет назад

Well, you are just talking about some of the uses of oil, but there is the whole petrochemical industry them finding viable (and too costly) alternatives might be a harder task, they might have to resort to coal liquefaction and such which from the environmental perspective would be worse.

@TimMeep 12 лет назад

Wow! 200% effective! So it charges the batteries as it drives then!

@YawnGod 12 лет назад

I wonder if the persons listening were actors.

@tmcthree 12 лет назад

Amory Lovins!!! Best name EVA!

@oO_ox_O 12 лет назад

Vast but sometimes too much, that was the problem I was referring to, and in case of nuclear plants the bigger the better more than with any other plant type and there too you will have a problem with transfer.

@CloudNine201 12 лет назад

Amor Lovins for world president!!!

@theatheistpaladin 11 лет назад

Look for his videos on the Rocky Mountain institute. He has 5 lectures there that are more detailed than the one here. But be warned each is about 90 minutes. Oil could still be used. Most likely reformed for the hydrogen for transportation. What he doesn't know is that there are some coal plants that the carbon is being sequestered to either make zero carbon cement or bio -fuels from algae that use the carbon.

@MrZingZinga 12 лет назад

Great message. The guy looks like he's about to fall asleep between slides. His voice is just tired... lol

@jmichek 12 лет назад

@Daedana A company in new Zealand is releasing a free energy technology called e-cat that utilizes cold fusion technology. We absolutely do not need nuclear power for today's infrastructure