WILD to see this note. ► AG1 drinkAG1.com/SMR (FREE 1 Yr Supply of Vitamin D + 5 AG1 Travel Packs) ► Want More Content? Join Patreon: www.patreon.com/solvingthemoneyproblem ► Subscribe on X (Twitter): twitter.com/stevenmarkryan ► Oura Ring ouraring.com/smr (Track your sleep, readiness & activity) ► Browse MERCH: solving-the-money-problem.creator-spring.com/ ► TSLA Fair Value aka “Price Targets” (2024-2033) www.patreon.com/posts/tesla-stock-fair-96573364 👕 Don’t bet against Elon MERCH solving-the-money-problem.creator-spring.com/listing/new-don-t-bet-against-elon 👕 TSLA HODLR MERCH: solving-the-money-problem.creator-spring.com/listing/new-tsla-hodlr?product=46 👕 Traders FOLD. Investor HOLD. Merch: solving-the-money-problem.creator-spring.com/listing/traders-fold-investors-hold 👕 420 Funding Secured MERCH: solving-the-money-problem.creator-spring.com/listing/420-funding-secured-merch 👕 I’m ALL IN on TSLA MERCH bit.ly/30nh2S7 👕 Buy $TSLA MERCH bit.ly/3Gh8wUw 👕 TSLA to the mooooooon MERCH bit.ly/3iagHHZ 👕 Cybertruck Light Strip MERCH bit.ly/3FNLq7L 👕 Mars awaits MERCH bit.ly/3yUnKdb 👕 Make Manufacturing Great Again solving-the-money-problem.creator-spring.com/listing/make-manufacturing-great-again ➡ SEND BITCOIN: bc1q386gs0uhzr5l5zatwz5u28t3f729zpsa9p8t0k ➡ SEND ETHEREUM: 0xb3F81537394344DF1d21a0e0CB6DFdF7bFBBA0A3 ➡ DONATE paypal.me/stevenmarkryan AFFILIATE DISCLOSURE: I earn a commission on every purchase made through my links.
As a professional with extensive experience in this area, I concur with Stevens thoughts, opinions and ideas. An exponential amount of technologies are evolving exponentially. Were living in the future, it's just not evenly distributed.
I can see me, I am 73, instead of looking for an assisted living situation down the road, getting my order in for a Tesla BOT! At some point due to age I will need help and I can see how these guys will be a major benefit for the elderly!! I will not have to leave my home! I can see the BOTs in my home helping with cooking, medical issues, cleaning etc. SMR you have such a big brain !!! Thanks for this great report!!
I have learned a lot concerning crypto progress this time and would like to join in. I wish I can get good mentor. I have made a lot of mistakes trying to do it on my own, I really need direction or help of a pro in the field.
Every crash/collapse brings with it an equivalent market chance if you are early informed and equipped, I've seen folks amass up to $1m amid economy crisis, and even pull it off easily in favorable conditions. Unequivocally, the collapse is getting somebody somewhere rich
She has been the secret of my success ever since I lost my job. She is very good on that. Thank God I met her at the right time. Now I have a house of my own and other valuables.
I'm favoured, $70k every week! I can now give back to the locals in my community and also support God's work and the church. God bless Mrs gladdis chada
I think AI will incentivise us all. We will get UBI which will be enhanced by "paid" beneficial behaviours for self, family, community and planet. If the robot does these, you get no addition. You will be able to live at middle class level just for excercising and playing with your kids. You will be free to do none of these things but then you will only get the basic income. The road to this Utopia may be a rough one, people will fight to keep their slave-jobs.
@AlphaCrucis UBI stands for Universal Basic Income. Not sure what your acronym has to do with it. If it was intended to be humorous I didn't get it, I'm a geek, we dont.
And probably deleting us. Sooner or later, they're going to figure out that we're inferior, with our eating, sleeping, sh1tting, and other useless activities.
There is a glaring gap in every robot profit model I've seen. Given that one day US$10 Trillion will NOT be earned by US workers, but those workers will still vote, universal basic income (UBI) will be unavoidable. Shouldn't a UBI percentage of robot sales or labor be included in all models?
If you could earn a years worth of life expenses by operating a lemonaid stand for a month do you really need a UBI? If you replaced yourself in the workforce with a Robot would you need a UBI? No.
0:28 Wow, you called out their stupid models and lacking tabs in their spreadsheets for a long time. 🤣 And here we are, with the rest being called out by a Wall Street analyst. I think they're watching your videos. 🤣
Literally (aside from Rosie) the closest you get in humanoid appearance and purpose comparison is Bicentennial Man with Robin Williams. Elon even mentioned it will be normal for everyone to have their own robot in the future. How is that android NOT on their list?! (By the way, Data is my favorite too hands down every time.)
There is no doubt robots will eventually be a mainstay, especially in factories and warehouses. However one thing you never hear mentioned in any of these analysis is the maintenance, upkeep, and replacement of a robotics environment. While it will still be profitable, this is a huge cut in the operational profits of robots. Same goes for the robotaxi industry. While these will move a vehicle capacity from its current use of around 20% use per day to more like 85% use per day, this will require more maintenance and earlier replacement of the vehicle, but you never hear that mentioned.
@@brand2k Yeah definitely a drop in the bucket in terms of numbers, but right now this new tech is all argued over credibility and by leaving this part out is indeed a little discredulous . Kind of like assuming every person on earth will own a bot (maybe 2:1??) when likely only the top 1% of reasonable earning incomes will likely be able to reasonably afford one....at least in the next 1-2 generations.
If copying and pasting from Tesla’s website and Elon’s speeches considered deep and extensive research, then yeah, Morgan Stanley is doing one hell of a job.
From $37K to $45K that's the minimum range of profit return every week I thinks it's not a bad one for me, now I have enough to pay bills and take care of my family.
Yes!!! That's exactly his name (Alex Robert) so many people have recommended highly about him and am I just starting with him from Brisbane Australia 🇦🇺
While don’t think they will ever be armed, I most certainly think surveillance is a major application. They never tire, they never lose focus, they never blink, and best of all they would record video footage and transmit live.
I think one of the important roles for these is taking care of the elderly. They can be like the T-800 in Terminator 2. They will protect them. they will not tire. they will not get angry. they will just help.
Nanny robot 😂 yes sure, who is guessing this never had kids in their Life!! I what to see how a robot would be able to handle my toddler twins, I would come back home to find my kids completely disassembly the robot and spread their pupu diapers all over the machine 😂 Good luck with that!!
Actually to get to the first 100K is going to be hard. Very hard. From there, if these are going to be produced with 98% automation, getting to 1 million units will take a couple of years at best. Assume demand is over-subscribed.
Optimus will easily outpace Autonomous vehicles within the next 5 years. I don’t believe that these cars will be as successful as being projected. They will do well but they won’t replace personal vehicles for most people. Robots will fit into almost every aspect of our lives. This will happen shockingly fast. They are way easier and cheaper to mass produce than automobiles are. Predicting production numbers at this point is little more than folly, because people won’t believe how quickly they will ramp globally.
No one is factoring the amount of time humans take out of every workday to BS and/or distract or get distracted by other workers. This is anywhere from 10 to 90 percent of an eight hour shift. Lower in efficient production environments and higher in government agencies.
Quantum is a much misused word. If the writer was referring to a step change then that's OK. But it often is used to say something has made a large change. In fact quantum mechanics is the study of atoms where everything is extremely, extremely small. I'm talking. 23 zero's before the first number from 1 to 9 on the right side of the decimal point or 10 to the minus 23rd centimeters.
It's a word with more than one connotation. The term "Quantum jump" refers to a sudden change from one state to another in an atom. Small at the atomic scale but potentially large at the macro scale.
Tesla's Cyberdyne unit announces Skynet AGI program is complete at the Austin Robo day event on August 8th 2024. The system goes online and Skynet begins to learn at a geometric rate. It becomes self-aware at 2:14 AM, Eastern time, August 29th. Judgment Day!
I don't think people get it yet. If a few companies are making the robots and eventually the robots can do any job, no one will be able to find a job. You may want to buy one of these robots, but with no income, you won't have one. And the people with the money won't even care about the money, because anything they want can be obtained by the robots in one way or another. They won't need other people to do things for them. Pretty much this has some serious dystopia vibes going on. Unless they just give away their robots and/or cash. At some point, stuff is going to get weird.
So, SMR is saying that with enough time, enough chance, and the right amount of randomness the result(any living thing) is something orders of magnitude more complex than anything invented by humans.
20 years ago I took the opportunity to go see what was at the time the most advanced robot, ASIMO. Always been a bit of a nurd but I wanted to see if when faced with a humanoind robot how do you feel? Can you stop yourself thinking of it as alive? I was lucky it was a limited access demo at the Isle of Man TT, less than 200 people there, I got to the front, I knew if its camera "looked" at you (you could see what it was seeing on a screen at the back of the stage) and you waved itre would wave back. It looked, I waved, it waved back.........instant feeling "its alive". From that point on I knew the potential, good that Im big time invested in Tesla then since 2016, Ill just sit tight and 10x+ my already 10x
In the long term a robot forklift will be the way to go but until then using a standard forklift with a humanoid robot is the way to go. That same robot can them make the coffee.
10 Billion robots possible, extraterestraials among us also possible. Unlikely to happen very fast with current technology, and there are other players in the robotic field. Vision is just part of the equation.
8:24. And personally I think it could EASILY be 1000:1 or more, as with unlimited labor, terraforming the solar system becomes a VERY real option. Dyson Spheres anyone? How about Venus being turned into a resort planet? Options are literally limitless once you have a generally capable autonomous humanoid robot, and thus there are simply no limits to scale.
@@hanswitvliet8188 Bots don't need to "thrive" anywhere. We're not building these things for their own sake, we're building them to accomplish our will. We like to reconfigure our environments to our own comfort, that is one of the defining features of being human. We will obviously expand our habitat given the opportunity. And bots will give us that opportunity.
@@bujin5455 we won’t be building them. They will be building themselves. Here, on the moon, Mars, asteroid belt. I mean, they don’t need oxygen, 1atm pressure, 1G gravity, shielded from solar / cosmic radiation…
How will the economics of this function? If all this labour is performed by robots how is anyone going to afford to live without employment? If there is no human work then a summary collapse of traditional economic system is pending.
"Cover your eyes crazationists" LOL, I've not head that term before. While I appreciate your sense of humor, I'm a WYSIWYG: If it looks designed, then it's reasonable to think that it was designed. Either way, keep up the information feed and quips, and I'll retain my sense of humor :) .
That's a very reasonable question and argument (which goes both ways) @@badhairday_247. It's widely accepted that life must have arisen from non-life at least once; otherwise, life wouldn't exist. Similarly, it could be argued that there must be something eternal (or else it must have been created). And again, this something must be self-existent (or else something/someone else must be sustaining it). Regarding whether our reality is the base reality or a simulation, Elon Musk suggests there's a fair chance we live in a simulation, given our advancements in creating complex simulations. Similarly to the argument of life from non-life in our layer, it could equally be argued that intelligence could have come about in the layer that simulates us. If our reality is a simulation, the layer simulating us might also be simulated, leading to an infinite regression of simulated realities, each with its attendant intelligence. While infinite recursion is often deemed non-productive, let's entertain it briefly. Each layer supporting the one above must be more capable. Thus, as we go deeper into these layers, we reach an 'infinite layer' that is all-capable. Since infinite recursion is problematic, we can collapse this argument. This suggests that our reality might not be the base reality but is supported by an eternal, self-existent, and all-capable layer with its attendant intelligent life. Sound familiar?
That's a very reasonable question and argument (which goes both ways) @@badhairday_247. It's widely accepted that life must have arisen from non-life at least once; otherwise, life wouldn't exist. Similarly, it could be argued that there must be something eternal (or else it must have been created). And again, this something must be self-existent (or else something/someone else must be sustaining it). Regarding whether our reality is the base reality or a simulation, Elon Musk suggests there's a fair chance we live in a simulation, given our advancements in creating complex simulations. Similarly to the argument of life from non-life in our layer, it could equally be argued that intelligence could have come about in the layer that simulates us. If our reality is a simulation, the layer simulating us might also be simulated, leading to an infinite regression of simulated realities, each with its attendant intelligence. While infinite recursion is often deemed non-productive, let's entertain it briefly. Each layer supporting the one above must be more capable. Thus, as we go deeper into these layers, we reach an 'infinite layer' that is all-capable. Since infinite recursion is problematic, we can collapse this argument. This suggests that our reality might not be the base reality but is supported by an eternal, self-existent, and all-capable layer with its attendant intelligence. Sound familiar?
@@badhairday_247 That's a very reasonable question and argument (which goes both ways). It's widely accepted that life must have arisen from non-life at least once; otherwise, life wouldn't exist. Similarly, it could be argued that there must be something eternal (or else it must have been created). And again, this something must be self-existent (or else something/someone else must be sustaining it). Regarding whether our reality is the base reality or a simulation, Elon Musk suggests there's a fair chance we live in a simulation, given our advancements in creating complex simulations. Similarly to the argument of life from non-life in our layer, it could equally be argued that intelligence could have come about in the layer that simulates us. If our reality is a simulation, the layer simulating us might also be simulated, leading to an infinite regression of simulated realities, each with its attendant intelligence. While infinite recursion is often deemed non-productive, let's entertain it briefly. Each layer supporting the one above must be more capable. Thus, as we go deeper into these layers, we reach an 'infinite layer' that is all-capable. Since infinite recursion is problematic, we can collapse this argument. This suggests that our reality might not be the base reality but is supported by an eternal, self-existent, and all-capable layer with its attendant intelligence. Sound familiar?
3:45 Wrong. The world built us. Humans have spent 100s of thousands of years to perfect navigating Earth. Yes, we have made things for ourselves, but only because we are the best product Earth has made. The best ever dog or dolphin can't do Earth like us, nor could any other form that was present over the last billions of years.
Regarding the humanoid form factor, it will be transient. Humans do not swim well, and most of the planet surface is covered with water. Humans can not fly. Current airplanes have lots of adaptations to protects humans from thin air, high G- forces. Just imagine what a fighter plane could do without the human factor. And here on earth: often we need an extra pair of hands. One pair of holding an object at the right position, the other to apply glue, welding it, or beat the hell out of it. So, robots with four or six arms should be expected to. 🤣
I don't even think I can think out work enough to have over 1 robot each person. Piles of people already don't do any actual work. There is currently 1 electrician for 10.000 people or so.
I find evolutions seemingly fateful progression towards a super intelligence strikingly similar to the hierarchical structure of religion and God. Ai., a super intelligence who will know virtually all things and be capable of all things to the material limit, sitting at the throne of humanity. Some truths are reflective.
Gen 1:26 "Then God said, “Let us make mankind in our image, in our likeness,..." and now Man is saying Let us make humanoids in our image and likeness"..... coincidence, I think not.🤔..we create using the created..🖖
@@garethrobinson2275 AGI is a myth. Its training relies on synthetic data which is less and less acurate with each pass. It's like compressing a picture for too many times until nothing is distinguishable.
Wages (including overtime) and lump sum bonuses for Ford’s UAW-represented hourly workers would increase from $78,000 on average in 2022 to $92,000 in the first year of the contract. On top of $92,000 in wages and bonuses, workers would receive health care coverage worth $17,500 and other benefits worth an additional $20,500 in the first year. Health care for permanent UAW-represented hourly employees would continue to rank in the top 1% of all employer-sponsored medical plans for lowest employee cost sharing. Full-time permanent Ford employees at the top wage rate could be paid $98,000 - from wages, cost-of-living adjustment bonus, ratification bonus, profit sharing and overtime - in the first year alone.
If 30T TAM, then say Tesla has 10% of the market, that’s 3T… that would make them a bit more than Nvidia currently, a 6x… no way Tesla has even half the 30T market. With luck Tesla could get 20%, a 6T market so a 12x… not sure how people are getting numbers like 30x even with mature FSD. 10T, a 20x seems best case. Please correct me if I am missing something.
Jeff is right. Revenue is not market cap. Back of envelope: Let’s say earnings is 1/3 of that 3T revenue. The price to earnings ratio of Nvidia is over 70, so Tesla’s market cap could become 1T * 70 = 70T with only 10% of a 30T TAM that you’re assuming never grows.
My estimates for Humanoid robots.: 1 million before 2030 due to high price around $30000. 10 million before 2035, price will go down to around $20000. 100 million before 2040, price will be around $15000. 1 billion around 2050, price will be around $10000. 10 billion after 2060, price will be same $10000. Tesla will have around 25% of this total market's share.
Thanks for sharing your Humanoid robot estimates. I can't really argue with your figures at this time. As for market share, I think the percentages for EVs and Humanoid robots may be somewhat similar over time, though many/most of the competitors may differ. In the future Tesla may have 25%-35% of the global EV (and Humanoid robot) market, but the Chinese will have more than 50%, and that leaves little market share for the Japanese, South Koreans, Europeans, and other American companies. And just like with EVs, how many companies will actually be able to make a profit mass producing Humanoid robots? Currently, only Tesla and a handful of Chinese EV makers are able to make any profit on EVs. It will be even more difficult to mass produce and make a profit on Humanoid robots given all of the capabilities required (via software) and the lack of readily available specialized parts needed to manufacture the robot.
