It’s About Time by Andrew Gelman
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Abstract: Statistical processes occur in time, but this is often not accounted for in the methods we use and the models we fit. Examples include imbalance in causal inference, generalization from A/B tests even when there is balance, sequential analysis, adjustment for pre-treatment measurements, poll aggregation, spatial and network models, chess ratings, sports analytics, and the replication crisis in science. The point of this talk is to motivate you to include time as a factor in your statistical analyses. This may change how you think about many applied problems!
Bio: Andrew Gelman is a professor of statistics and political science and director of the Applied Statistics Center at Columbia University. He has received the Outstanding Statistical Application award from the American Statistical Association, the award for best article published in the American Political Science Review, and the Council of Presidents of Statistical Societies award for outstanding contributions by a person under the age of 40. His books include Bayesian Data Analysis (with John Carlin, Hal Stern, David Dunson, Aki Vehtari, and Don Rubin), Teaching Statistics: A Bag of Tricks (with Deb Nolan), Data Analysis Using Regression and Multilevel/Hierarchical Models (with Jennifer Hill), Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State: Why Americans Vote the Way They Do (with David Park, Boris Shor, and Jeronimo Cortina), and A Quantitative Tour of the Social Sciences (co-edited with Jeronimo Cortina).
Andrew has done research on a wide range of topics, including: why it is rational to vote; why campaign polls are so variable when elections are so predictable; why redistricting is good for democracy; reversals of death sentences; police stops in New York City, the statistical challenges of estimating small effects; the probability that your vote will be decisive; seats and votes in Congress; social network structure; arsenic in Bangladesh; radon in your basement; toxicology; medical imaging; and methods in surveys, experimental design, statistical inference, computation, and graphics.
Twitter: / statmodeling
Presented at the 2024 New York R Conference (May 16, 2024)
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23 авг 2024
