I just think the hero’s straight is so hidden that he has to call. If villain hits backdoor flush so be it. I don’t think he plays J10 hearts that way so it’s a tough call but a call.
My thinking too - villains not putting hero on a 6 virtually ever, so he's thinking "one liner to a straight, backdoor flush comes in, I can make nearly everything in his range fold".
I think it was actually a very simple play on mid stakes. He took both of his jacks, including one which is spade, and made it look like he either has JT OR backdoor flush BECAUSE, he figured his opponent had either queens, kings or aces. Which he couldnt beat
Meh, bad bluff imo. Sure he gets overpairs to fold *but thats it*. All of hero's other value hand/traps besides straights (2 pair etc) are going to be cry calling way too often. I think the only reason he even tried it was because he had a spade but trying to use card removal against backdoor combo draws is a bit overkill since you have to give your opponent A LOT of credit for trying to chase with them in the first place.
This is a really interesting hand review. I think both players played their hand great. Very heads up play by Neeme recognizing that his JJ was no good, but he had a great potential bluff hand. It takes a lot of courage and awareness to make that play. He just ran into it. Has he covered this hand on his channel? I would love to see what he has to say about it.
@@EllieBanks333 I found the video. On the river, he mentioned that the caller was repping big over pairs the whole way. He didn't really explain why he continued to call the whole way then unless he was considering turning his hand into a bluff on the river. I have a hunch that he thought he was beat the whole way and became more and more confident of that as the hand continued. But he can't just fold an over pair on a live stream. I think he was just expecting to lose to a bigger over pair, chalk it up to a cooler and the price of doing business (vlogging and live streaming) and then move on. But the river was really great for his range as played, and he had great removal to the nuts, so he decided to turn it into a bluff. It should be noted that Neeme's original strategy of just check calling would have actually worked out had the caller not backed into that straight. If the board just pairs and he checks, I think he would have called a bet and beat Ah6h. Or maybe the caller would have just given up and checked it back. I don't remember if he mentioned what his river plan was in the call with Bart.
Didn't watch this particular stream, so I didn't know the hand yet. I was thinking Js Qs and maybe 10s with either hearts or spade in hand. This is a call all day long with Ah6h. the only time I consider folding this is if it is a tight Nit and even then ..... The hand I'd be most worried would be As9s which is one of the hands that gets here like this at the end.
What kind of logic assumes that he potentially folds hearts on the turn but calls spades. If we are afraid to call here we should probably reconsider if we are comfortable in these stakes I think it's a very clear call assuming the villain is capable of bluffing. He can bluff with hearts , pocket 10s, pocket jacks, something weird like j8s or 10/9 s, it's clear that this river is bad for our range so it's very possible to face many unorthodox bluffs.
Yep. This was an absolutely ridiculous nit roll from hero. Any other competent player is thinking 5 seconds and flicking a chip in. We’re simply too high up in range and V is too wide as played , especially with the stream dynamic and the lack of aggression on turn.
Well, I disagree that it was “ridiculous”, but you’re right I’m never folding in that spot. I thought for maybe a minute to make sure I wasn’t missing something obvious.
I hate the flop play. The caller says he's betting his range; but this board doesn't hit 3-bet range. So you're really only repping over-pairs. So you should ask what you'd do with QQ here. You should be betting more than 25% on the flop.
The result of this hand for the caller is pretty much max EV. He got lucky in 2 ways: 1 - He cold 3bet with Ah6H pre-flop and his opponent believed his JJ was likely behind. 2 - The flop is gin for his actual hand. That means he can keep betting with some back up plan incase his Neeme is not a full believer just yet. 3 - He hit the perfect river for his actual hand. 4 - Neeme had the awareness to know what his perceived range was and that at this point, he likely wasn't good with his actual hand, so he decided to represent what the caller was holding.
I think it's better to call the river bet with a set of 9s than to call with A6 of hearts when you block the missed nut flush draws. I was expecting J-8 or 10-8 of hearts here as a bluff. But those might fold preflop.
I would call with 99 also. It seems like the bluff is representing a flush here, or maybe the top end straight JT. So I don't know if I agree with caller that AA is an auto-muck here. I'm not sure I see the difference between callers small straight or a set or AA. I mean, is this really ever 77 from Neeme? Villain seems very polarized with this line.
I think this is a pretty well played hand by both players to be honest, and even though he ran into a straight at the end, I really like the bluff with the double straight blockers and with a spade, like hero said, red aces or kings are almost always going in the muck.
Hey guys. I feel dumb but why should we defend 50% of our range to a pot size bet, if we have a 1:2 pot odds, meaning we need to win 33% of the time. Can someone explain, please?
If only 33% of your range beats villain's range so you have to call 50% of your range vs a pot size bet in order to be EV 0. Just assumptions of how many bluffs villain has that defines how high in your range you have to call.
Before reveal.... All his spades that are lower are double draws like JTss. Axss there are ~5 combos assuming he 3bs ATss+. As for hearts he has less combos. Maybe JThh, QThh, KThh.... He isn't doing this with 2 pairs or sets. He could have a 6x hand. The thing here is that our hero bet really large OTT. He really doesn't have odds to call there for a naked FD. He likely has the Axss low or busted hearts. This would really depends on how much I know the villain. He is s pro so he has a bluffing range. But does he have enough of one to call? In my games I would lean on folding as pros aren't this complicated with balance. But this is different. I would bluff at this board against the hero. The only other thing I spotted here is that Neeme seemed comfortable on the flop with a 5s decision, uncomfortable OTT with a 7s decision. This really depends on his 3b range in this game. In my games his turn behavior leads to NOT a FD as most players will quickly call. He also left some money behind which is a strategy when you are bluffing large to lose a little less. We assume he is balanced also. If I saw him calling raises with odd hands like say Q9s in this spot. I'd lean on calling. I don't know how loose he plays.
This can just simply never be a fold against a competent player. This is 100% villain’s card from a range perspective, so we can never fold when we actually have the type of hand our opponent is repping. We might chop with value. Sure we lose to flushes but that’s just life in this spot.
I’m the hero in this hand. I’m not sure what kind of games you play in, but in my regular 2/5/+10 game, I’m snap folding this spot all day against 80% of the field, and printing money doing it.
Horrible play by Andrew in my opinion (Yes great combo to bluff) but the runout was so bad for him but ESPECIALLY u…. Very easy for the overpairs u have to check back…. Why call turn if u think ur up against over pair then try and bluff them when u might be able to get off cheap?? Thoughts
I dont get it. Instant call on river for me. Caller stated its an agressive game where players reg making plays..dont know how you can consider folding.. Havent seen reveal yet Ahh bart agreed with me ..good. Caller was just a nit
Um...I don't see why this is a good bet as a bluff by Neeme. It's a small bet compared to the pot. It's not going to get a lot of folds. What better hand is he trying to get to fold? Specifically AA, KK, and QQ? Nah, just take showdown value with JJ and check back.
@@Caspergomezz I'm not a fan of the small sizing on flops either. They are very popular now though. Mostly because they are mathematically correct in multiway spots.
If you have black aces it makes it less likely that villain made a flush, which makes it more likely villain is bluffing...including putting Axh into villain's range.
