Are England good or just lucky? 

Spain have won all their games while beating the likes of Italy, Croatia, Germany and France. Spain have also played the most dominant and the most attractive football. Oli Kay saying that this Spain team is not an incredibile team is simply ridiculous.

This is totally result dependent thinking. England win=Gareth Good. England lose=Gareth Bad. There is no objective truth there. If they lose the final he'll be bad again, but because the last game he won he is good. However, if England win, he'll be a genius. It's a sign of the reductive nature of British football journalism which reacts rather than analyzes. I'm getting sick of these bullshit podcasts that just regurgitate the latest reaction to a result. What I want is analytical well informed opinions. It has been a disaster of a tournament performance wise, but because England haven't been knocked out people are lording the management when in fact that boils down to mostly luck and individual brilliance. That is not what good management produces, so we should be calling that out.

Problem is Oli, is that Kane is not often in the penalty box much. So no use saying if there was a ball falling to someone in the penalty box you’d want it to be to Kane

During Southgate's reign, England have consistently been ranked in the top 20 in the world. And there are 20 teams in the EPL. So let's pretend this is some sort of international Premier League. How have we done against other teams ranked in the top 20? Southgate's teams have played 40 matches against other teams who were ranked in the top 20 at the time. That's almost an exact season. And (taking the scores after 90 minutes in matches which have gone to extra time / penalties) his results have been: Played 40 / Won 12, Drawn 18, Lost 10 / Goals 49-40 / Goal diff +9 / Pts 54 Hmm. 54 points in 40 games would be a rate of 51 points in a normal season of 38 games. That's solidly mid-table. In recent years 51 points would be good enough for 9th to 12th place in thr EPL. Is that fair? England have been ranked in the top 7 continuously since the 2018 World Cup (33 of the 40 games against top-20 teams), and in the top 5 continuously since June 2019 (26 of the 40 games). But our form against top-20 teams suggests we should probably be ranked somewhere around 9th to 12th, not 5th. Maybe our FIFA ranking is unduly influenced by our consistently good performances against minnows, in Euro and World Cup qualifying tournaments? What do you think? We've avoided qualification exits, but we haven't done that by beating good teams. We've done it by consistently not losing to poorer teams. By and large our good runs in the big tournaments haven't come by beating good teams, either. We've got through the group phases by not losing to teams we shouldn't lose to, and as many others have commented, we've tended to have kind draws so most of the teams we've faced in knockout games haven't been highly ranked either. If England was a club team they would be Spurs!

I dare you to be positive about England the morning after we reach a European Final. I dare you.

Wow. No reflection on the fact half the players have changed because they were injured (James, Chilwell, Mount, Phillips, DCL) or off form (Maguire, Rashford, Henderson) and they were still jettisoned so late that this squad was cobbled together. Southgate would have happily picked the same squad - evident by the fact the in form players like Trent, Palmer, Watkins can't get a start in their best position. Tactics have not gotten England to this final.

I feel like the praise towards Southgate in this video is so forced and disingenuous.

Maybe let’s not overthink the room here fellas. You’ve got better players up top right now and they’re scoring despite Gareth. Not bc of him.

Should we really be giving Southgate credit for doing what's been blindingly obvious to everyone watching for weeks now?

Back to back finals and a WC Semi in there as well..... isn't luck

More lucky than good. Individual brilliance has bailed us out on 3 occasions in the knockout stages

Mainoo carrying the midfield, note the impact he's made by moving the ball forward whenever possible.

Vindication is the wrong word. That suggests getting it right proves he was right all along which he certainly wasn’t. He has learned from His mistakes and should be credited for this. But he wasn’t right all along. Far from it

Controverisal take: Bellingham should NOT start. The players are starting to look tired. Bellingham himself said after the match he didn't think he had another half hour in him if it went to extra time. Given how tough the midfield battle is going to be Garath needs to plan to rotate the midfield. If we save Bellingham till 55 minutes then we can do for a like for like swap for Foden and unleash him against the Spanish, and keep a goal threat up for the 2nd half. He won't do but it's an idea.

Bit of both, but you generally need some luck/good fortune in tournament football Lampard's disallowed goal which literally led to the introduction of VAR, Portugal cheating to get Rooney sent off, Sol Campbell's disallowed goal in '04, Maradonna's hand of god, Waddle not being awarded a blatant penalty against the Germans and the list goes on... a soft pen but we've had more than our fair share of bad luck so it's was about time something went our way (plus England were the better side over 90 mins last night) Edit: it's been a long time since 2006 and I totally forgot that Rooney did step on Carvalho (and I'm a big Chelsea fan so I was even a tiny bit conflicted at the time), but that Ronaldo wink... still annoys me a bit to this day 😅

I remember when I used to watch Ayo on blue Peter as a kid. Legend. Always makes me smile to see him doing well

I’m so proud of them.

Well, to win a tournament you need some luck for sure, Spain have been really good right ?! And yet they got away with a clear handball against Germany and a possible red card for Nacho in their semi final game with France. But you can't just ignore the fact that this group of players don't accept defeat and fight to the last minute, I absolutely believe we're going to win it this time.

Italy 2006 was absolutely dreadful until the semifinal. Nobody remembers performance if you lift the damn trophy. If he doesn't, it's southgate out.

How can Southgate doing what he should have done 5 games ago be a vindication? Idiotic nonsense. The stuff about Kane is embarrassing and the fawning over Southgate even worse. .

Luck... it's just a word...you create your own opportunities by putting yourself in the right places at the right time and having a go... keep doing that and you'll be successful sooner or later

Both. The winning goal was not lucky but England could’ve easily lost 1-0.

Bobby Robson was England manager for four tournaments and his record was didn't qualify, QF, out in the group stage, SF. Southgates four tournament record is SF, F, QF (unlucky), F. I don't think he would be suited to manage a top club side but Southgates record at international level is fantastic. I'm 60 yo I have vague memories of 1970 but mainly remember England being shit for the next 40 years. Yet people still speak fondly of Sir Bobby whilst throwing beer over Gareth. Go figure.

Any comparison to CR7 falls down on Kane’s attitude when he’s dragged. We can’t deny his positive, team first attitude. No sulking or throwing arms around.

I agree that we have consistently been in the latter stages of competitions and at times played good football but we are still falling short to the big teams and hopefully not made to pay when we should have probably won something by now with the past tournaments (2018/2020) especially

It took him 5 games to realise 4 at the back wasn't working despite the fact my cat could see it. I'll always respect the increased togetherness Southgate has fostered, but tactically he's a Championship manager at best.

Up to this point, England strangely resembles part of stereotypical West Germany : boring but got into final, ruthlessly effective on penalty kick shootouts.

Kane doesnt do anymore what he used to do so well. 3 times at least against Holland, a good ball was put in to am empty space where Kane should have, and Tony or Ollie would have, been waiting.

I’m fully behind our lads and choose to view the positives but my worry is if we score first! We have seen coming from behind but scoring first and winning is the final frontier.

I think the England 'supporters' are no longer 'fans', rather, they have all become critics and nothing will be good enough for them. I wish they'd all throw their keyboards out of the window. Just read these comments. They are so boring and don't even have the insight to realise that above eveything it is their own negativity and criticism that affects the England team so badly. Go ENGLUND!

Luck plays a part in every football game, but if you end up in the final of a major tournament then it can't all be down to luck. If you end up in back-to-back Euros finals then it definitely can't all be down to luck. I just don't particularly like the idea that someone could wave away achievements like this by labelling it as luck, and it's not something I've seen other nations do. Possibly symptomatic of not achieving much for decades? Plus I think the definition of luck is sometimes stretched to include things which are unlikely but are only possible because of skill.

The fucks with the bots😂

You guys are really trying your best to cover for Southgate, honestly if any of you cared about England more than your journalistic careers you would not be able to stand him as manager

Not all the luck has gone with England, Foden is very unlucky not to have a goal yet, having one disallowed and two near misses against Netherlands, Saka also has had a goal disallowed. Substitues is not the only way to change the game or the most reliable - teams need to adapt in-game too. The weight of expectation created nerves which inhibited in-game adaptation to tactical changes by Serbia and Denmark after England went ahead. Against Slovenia we showed better cohesion, and, combined with the introduction of Mainoo, created a baseline. Slovakia made it difficult for England to play through the middle, and the imbalance of the left reduced options for going wide. A change of off-the-ball formation helped against Switzerland - and found a way to keep Foden and Bellingham free to move into central postions, which has been Southgates objective - however the formation was deeply out of balance in extra-time after essential substitutions. It all came together in the first half against the Netherlands, forcing Koeman to make tactical changes which suceeded at first. Substitutions worked to reverse that trend.

The fortuitous penalty decision vs Holland answers question of this video title . Southgate needs the luck

They're a much better team than what we've seen in the tournament up to now - Southgate has handicapped them up to this point by insisting on focussing around Kane. No doubt they have been very lucky too with the late equaliser in the last 16. But the one thing that they have shown is they have responded well when under pressure, staying in the game and given themselves a fighting chance. Good or lucky? They ARE good (but just haven't shown it until the SF match), but they've undoubtedly also ridden their luck too - every team that wins a major tournament probably has a slice of luck at crucial points, and maybe it's our turn.

Luck is when preparation meets opportunity. You don't often see any team make it to the finals without some element of luck. Never mind win it.

When you finally respond to criticism by doing what critics are asking for, all you've done is prove them right.

One game in six where watching the National team is not an unpleasant experience. If Southgate loses this final, he will still get the plaudits as a successful manager for the National side . Outside the liberal bubble of everyone deserves to win. It is not just about winning , but how you play the game . Hope and Glory, we all hope to see a win , the glory which is more elusive, also defines what it is the national side represents. Currently looking like lucky chancers of bankers football, rather than anything more expressive and affirmative. Hope to be proved wrong, and saving the best for last ? Ollie Watkins has made history, a rare moment of true glory, for a game that is a surprise in being better all round ,than what produced so far. Now three Roy of the Rover moments, from a side rated the most expensive and best . Someone is stealing a living and no doubts on that.

We didn't lose control of the second half in that Holland where in control it was a pretty stale affair. And as to the subs really it is such a genius move to replace a striker with another after 80minutes? We are praising him for outperforminh his own low standards

Both in this tournament , we have had plenty of bad luck others......

I think the conversation has been tinted somewhat by the fact we're in a final. Lets be honest, we've fallen upwards, and if we don't improve, we'll get decimated.

Toney did not set up the equaliser against Slovakia damn! How many people have said this, it was Guehi

You have to give credit to the Dutch in the second half for changing their formation and making it more difficult for England in the second half, but we overcame and found a way. Cmon England! & Well done the team & Gareth Southgate.

Kane was on the outside as a deliberate strategy and protocol for penalties...

Bit of both. As is the case with most major tournament winners. Take a ganders at Germany’s 1990 World Cup win, or 96 Euros win and tell me there wasn’t a healthy dose of luck at the right times.

John Stones and Declan Rice are a problem. Way too risk averse. Our mids are used to taking the ball under pressure, yet Stones refuses to pass into Mainoo etc…just happy to push it side to side. Tripper is a disaster.

Koeman had a nightmare against England. Can’t believe he picked such a lightweight midfield after seeing exactly how England have struggled in the first 5 games. So much space for Foden/Bellingham last night.

There are only 2 teams that have played ‘better’ football in the tournament. Spain and Germany. We’re playing Spain in the final. Winning in the last minute consistently with world class finishes is usually the sign of a great team. However I’m not saying we’re playing great football.

I bet y'all feel vindicated for calling for Kane to be dropped??? Dont be that media hoise that jumps on the bandwagon of popular decisions... The same stupidity is seen with Ronaldo... Dont try to get views and likes by being stupid... There's still a market for people whonwant credible news and fair commentary and punditry... Please... Keep it real...

I played football for 35 years and my two worst injuries were when is was shooting. A defender slide into my standing leg and broke it and secondly a defender put his studs up near the ball so when i hit the ball my follow through hit his dtuds and i broke my ankle. The Dutch defender wasn't close enough to compete for the ball and so insteaf put his studs up to scare and put off Kane when was shooting.

St George's Park has made a difference to Southgate's England

Does anyone have an opinion on Declan Rice? I ask because I have been very disappointed in all his performances but maybe I’m just reading the game wrong especially as I’m watching the TV presentation and don’t get that live perspective.

Just lucky. Thanks for coming everyone

I didn’t watch the video due to the title, as I couldn’t care less, just win.

Its stupid how good mainoo is i watched him a few years ago at leigh sports village for united youth and he bodied some big lad twice his size then spins the cb and puts a 20 yard pass between the other 2 defenders and set up the striker for a 1on1 I remember thinking at the time i hadn’t seen that since pogba

It’s a matter of luck due to such a manager being in charge.

Both probably as you tend to make your own luck when you have a can do attitude and in football this would mean playing to the final whistle.

As for the subs. Its obvious that unless the team were going out by being 2 down or more, the subs were never going to come on early. So they came on to either; get lucky in the last x minutes, show one bit of quality to score when they never looked like scoring or to have those fresh legs on for the next 30mins. Its the philosophy of playing the odds. Which suits Southgate as he doesnt have the personality of gambler.

Yes

We are good and lucky

Southgates tactics havent gotten us to this final, its been a moment of brilliance from Bellingham, Saka. World class penalties from toney, palmer etc and a dodgy pen call. I would love to see us get lucky vs spain but they are a different beast as france found that out

No one doubts the squad has the players to win. Many supporters could manage better.

It's time. I predict Euro and next WC champions 😅 LFG!

Luck always for people that prepare for it. Even you get a penalty, you still need someone to step up and score it. Remember Kane miss penalty against france in 2022 WC

Saka is the best player! What u on about.

How can it be luck?? They train and train for these moments and clearly go into a match with the intent to win. Perhaps not merited but totally not luck.

The penalty is honestly really weird. I totally argee that it feels like it shouldn't be... but then. Its a studs up challange. Harry Kane isn't seriously injured (and hell, half or more of us probably wouldn't mind if he WAS injured enough to not be able to play) but its a studs up challange. So it weird. On one hand I'm like, man, that probably shouldn't be a penalty and is really harsh on the dutch, on the other hand I'm like... they are lucky its not a red card.

Any NORMAL person would be pleased with the 2nd Euros Final in a row A lot of people have a short memory to as recently as 2016😂😂😂😂😂 England were lucky but they’ve been unlucky before Swings and roundabouts

I am getting tired of all the nonsense being talked about Southgate being vindicated and redemption, blah, blah blah! Truth is he has been continuously rescued by his players in the dying moments of games so that effectively England has been winning despite Southgate's best efforts to fuck things up

Barely scraping through against 2 average teams, beating a team that finished 3rd in their group in the last minute, and England are suddenly world beaters? They are a well organised, safety first boring team that’s less than the sum of its parts. They rely on keeping the game tight and moments of individual brilliance, or penalties. For the sake of football most people are hoping for a Spain win. Spain v Germany was the real final.

Are Real Madrid lucky or are they just bloody winners? This is four tournaments of semi, final, QF and final. In football no team can expect to reach the late stages of tournaments, even if they have the best squad and England did not have the best squad at all those tournaments.

Both

Southgate has been lucky and has had easy draws always ,lost against the bigger nations in the knockout rounds on most occasions Sunday is his big test because we have the squad to beat Spain

It was less common to make substitutions before cus it was 3 substitutions even for 90-120 min game. So you only made 2 subs in case you got a player get injured and there is 30 min to play .., Now it’s 5 subs, 6th sub for extra time Teams with deep squads are changing every position except goal keeper & central defense just to get fresh legs especially in summer heat Also pace of game is faster & injury times are longer & in Rooney times England had the likes of heskey, vassel, crouch, 16 year old Walcott on The bench vs now gordan, Watkins, Palmer, Toney, Bowen People not in squad Rashford, sancho, grealish etc

Dour at best. Not very attractive, eye candy soccer. Hanging in by a sliver. Getting big goals when needed. Still searching for a team identity and style of play. Reactive, late substitutions, dulling a knife's edge. Cagey, frustrating, struggling, questionable. Questions or concerns about LB, LWB, LAM, striker. Players believe. Bench are a great supporting cast. Paradox: What is England's best 11, formation and system Vs Southgate's safest 11 , formation and system.

At the end of the day you make your own luck, people might say that England are lucky to have made it to the final? That they got lucky with the side of the draw they ended up on? That they were lucky with the teams they had to play in the knockout stages? That they were lucky to score that absolute cracking overhead kick in the last few minutes in the round of 16? The amount of things that have gone right for us over the duration of this tournament should honestly make even the most sceptical people start believing?? It's always been said that to win these kind of tournaments you've got to have some luck at times?? Considering everything we've seen so far this time it could finally be the year when our lads bring it home??? No matter what anyone might say in my opinion our boys have done our country proud!! COME ON ENGLAND!!

The penalty was lucky. Kane being heard screaming over 80,000 fans is embarrassing and sums up the man.

The lucky draw stuff is so stupid. Firstly teams get to knock outs on merit and 2. Southgate usually wins the group so gets "easier draws" Capello, Hoddle, Hodgson to name just three didnt win groups

Lol now southgate a genius.

England have been lucky, but also increasingly good.

They are lucky to again not play against any of the good teams. Their players are very good compared to the teams they have played. And they still needed a lot of luck to beat those opponents. Spain on the other hand beat France, Germany, Italy and Croatia on merit, with players that individually are not better than England’s. They entertained people in the process while England made people want to switch of their TVs, except for maybe half an hour vs the Netherlands until they got their act together. So I think it is fair to say that they are mainly lucky, and it is quite clear to see why every non Englishman hopes that Spain will win on Sunday.

The Dutch goal was due to an england blunder giving the ball away.

Foden was not englands best player in first half mr jack pitt......Mainooo and saka were the best

Journalists should really stop jumbling old euro stats with the current Euros format to show how good someone is doing now. People who watched the old Euro 8 team tournaments whas bloody hard compared to now we're the semi final is now the level of that old format. Brand politics stops Southgate from dropping kane. England chances of winning increase with not having Kane in the team.

Huge pressure on hot faves Spain. Our boys will play free & have fun as they are big underdogs. Just like Der Kaiser vs Sir Alf 1966, we were underdogs then, cuz we lost amazing Jimmy Greaves to injury & the Germans felt our inexperienced kids Hurst, Peters & Ball would falter & that Sir Jackie C was too old too slow. It's written in the stars 4 our 3 lions 2 BRING IT HOME. (Keep asking all UKs little 3 lions boys & girls to keep praying UK). Just like L.Messi in 2022 & G.Vialli in 2021. PRAYERS & MEDITATIONS keep the fortuitous lucky karma flowing. Its our first tournament since 66 when the lucky breaks have gone for us. Kanes 1st cup will be Euro2024. But he should be an impact sub coming on at half time time through extra time Spirit of 66 is being channelled by Jude & co. (JB is a new hybrid of, Bobby Moore like bravery & tackling & intercepts (1966 man of the match) & Zidane like Skills (man of the match 1998). Trent will nail the 5th & cup winning pen in the final if GS is late with his impact subs. Jordan played well in goal. He has finally stopped punting long balls to rivals & was calm today. Foden & Kane played well, but their energy faded again & will need to be subbed again at 60 mins in the final. Bringing on Trent Pirlo at 60 mins for Foden & Ivan or Ollie Trolley (of goals & assists) for Harry (is what the Maths Profs want based on their formula). Also, bring on earlier Ice Cole & No Bore Shaw Profs are happy with Gareth (this generations Sir Alf), especially Prof Stavros who saw Greece win 2004 v/s CR7 no less. Prayers of little 3 🦁 boys & girls keep winning 4 our 3 🦁. Maths Profs ❤ GS as he took 80% of their advice when he picked a squad of winner who can play through average form & painful knocks & still win. Stick to the plan GS made on Tues dawn, 5 am to 7.30 am. Keep using the impact subs well, especially Trent, Cole P, Oli Trolley (of goals & asists), A.Gordon & Ivan. As these 5 have form & fitness & fortuitousity (good luck karma). Just like Sir Alf in 1966, he was bashed by a few drunks throwing cups early on, but GS will achieve a great cup win on Sunday & will be made a Sir. As per the Maths profs predictions (if he uses the impact subs well & yes they would like Gareth to do more subs more early, please). Tears of Joy will fall upon the nice cheeks of Big Meeks, Caz Carney, Shearer, Wrighty, Pougatch, Adam McAdam, Mike Bridge, Karveh Solekah, Simon Jordan, Rob Draper, & even fiery Gary Neville & Mr Misery Lineker will shed a tear of joy on Sunday. Just make sure all the little 3 🦁 boys & girls keep praying. CAN SKY DO A GREAT DOCUMENTARY ON SIR ALF & the 66 boys to sharpen the focus & raise the energy of our 24 boys even higher, 🙏- Keep praying & meditating 3 🦁 cuz it's working ! Prayers of millions of 3 🦁 little boys & girls keep winning 4 our 3 🦁. Stick to plan GS made on Tues dawn, 5 to 7 am.

With a little bit of luck you can make it though the.. tournament

Let's not forget England was just 30 secs of going out against a very average team. That's just plain luck that England was able to play so badly yet stumbled through to the finals.

Strange takes. Venables was far more "malleable" tactically in '96 We haven't been good, bar the odd half or two. He has handicapped that left flank throughout the whole tournament unnecessarily. Without runners, he has blunted & sacrificed Kane good and proper. The central midfield experiments during a tournament with Trent & Gallagher was downright incompetence. With the cherry being the Kalvin Phillips comments. Team that hangs in there and relying on moments. All for hyping up his results, even with favourable draws but please, the performances have largely been stuttering and tactically rather odd. I don't get the Southgate praise in this video. He is basically Deschamps II but without the runners.

southgate's subs in that game are not a repost to criticism because they are doing what the criticism is asking for. it's only taken southgate 8 years to figure out subs can win games.

They are

I havent even watched the video yet and know the answer.

Both, but for the good of football, Spain please win

Southgate needs to drop Kane and start Watkins final. Look how dangerous and effective we are when we have a striker who actually looks like he wants to score goals. And Phil Foden played in a central position and looked like the Phil Foden we saw in the Premier League! What a fucking concept. Walker out, Trent in. And it was definitely a penalty. Not really even debatable.

It wasn't a pen!!!! and Sakas handpass b4 that Kanes shot...

You dont get lucky for 4 tournaments in a row. Mattbe the odd one, but not 4. Great manager

The mental gymnastics everyone seems to want to go through to defend/laud Pizzagate is beyond belief. The fact that Watkins scored a wonder strike after being brought on for Kane, for the first time, with only 10 minutes to go to try and affect the game, does not mean that was a genius Pizzagate move. It merely proves that those highlighting his reluctance to make obvious changes unless forced into them by absence or last minute desperation, were correct to do so. He has had the luck of the draw at every turn and moments of luck and individual brilliance to scrape through ties we have the talent to take by the horns. Small club mentality, relegation battle tactics with world class players, he's simply inept, get him out and let's start enjoying the football these players are truly capable of before we lose another golden generation.

Would they be saying half of the positive things they are now about Southgate had England been knocked out yesterday?😂😂

England hasn't beaten any top team; even against mid-to-low level teams, they often go through penalties. The team's performance is a joke considering the quality of the squad. Southgate is a genius for going so far in tournaments with such poor performances, but Southgate is not a top manager, and England can play much better

Very lucky