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in ark or your calculations the factor of miles driven x cars appears to use 30,000 -60,000 miles per year the assumption is that robotaxis don’t need to rest or eat etc however don’t we need to use numbers of miles driven per year PERIOD by all cars and factor in number of robotaxis share ? i don’t ever hear that i hear a guesstimate based on a larger number of miles driven without factoring in actual current miles . people will not all move around more than now such a large extrapolation based on the assumption that also assumes massive increase in miles taken by the same population that travels the same amount of. seems like an error
as only a car company without autonomy but with the next gen vehicle you neglect to mention the value of all car buisness vehicles is around $800,000,000 which makes the stock over valued currently when. elon says don’t invest in tesla unless you believe or accept FSD inevitability he is acknowledging this if you don’t live alone and have no responsibilities like children or “retirement “ more imminent you need to accept that any investment is a speculation and invest based on that acknowledgment by even elon . elon has in common alot with those without responsibility in that he is mission driven for real and has no money issue period . it is likely the best speculation anyone could ever make now or in the past for a company that is for certain !!👍🏼✌🏽 #tesla
@@fredwinslow744 "in ark or your calculations the factor of miles driven x cars appears to use 30,000 -60,000 miles per year the assumption is that robotaxis don’t need to rest or eat etc however don’t we need to use numbers of miles driven per year PERIOD by all cars and factor in number of robotaxis share ?" With cheaper transportation the miles driven will increase. "people will not all move around more than now " On the contrary, they will travel a lot more as the prices drop dramatically. "as only a car company without autonomy but with the next gen vehicle you neglect to mention the value of all car buisness vehicles is around $800,000,000 which makes the stock over valued currently " Incorrect. Tesla is an AI, robotics, and car and energy company. Since you like to post what Elon acknowledges, he is acknowledging this fact. The autonomy opportunity is barely priced into the stock, which makes the stock under valued if anything. "when. elon says don’t invest in tesla unless you believe or accept FSD inevitability he is acknowledging this" Incorrect. When Elon tells stupid people to not invest in Tesla if they don't understand the company, he means just that. Don't invest into companies that you don't understand. "if you don’t live alone and have no responsibilities like children or “retirement “ more imminent you need to accept that any investment is a speculation and invest based on that acknowledgment by even elon. elon has in common alot with those without responsibility in that he is mission driven for real and has no money issue period ." That's a silly statement that has nothing to do with the discussion at hand.
I drove 150 miles from Bellingham to Olympia in Washington and my girlfriend and I counted over 200 Tesla cars that passed us in the other lane. Every 5 seconds or so another Tesla, even 1 Cybertruck. The Fleet is real and it's growing FAST!
Dividend investing is most effective when approached with a long-term perspective. While dividends can provide immediate income, the true power lies in the compounding effect over many years. I'm still looking for companies to make additions to my $350K portfolio, to boost performance. Here for ideas..
I think the next big thing will be A.I. For enduring growth akin to META, it's vital to avoid impulsive decisions driven by short-term fluctuations. Prioritize patience and a long-term perspective most importantly consider financial advisory for informed buying and selling decisions.
A lot of folks downplay the role of advlsors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to $850K
Elisse Laparche Ewing is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment..
I currently have about $120k invested in tech and TSLA firms. Can you suggest any other stocks I should consider to diversify my holdings across different markets and create a well-rounded portfolio that aligns with my risk tolerance?
Look for stocks that have paid steady, increasing dividends for years (or decades), and have not cut their dividends even during recessions. Alternatively speaking to a certified market strategist can help with pointers on equities to acquire
Very true , I diversified my $400K portfolio across multiple market with the aid of an investment advisor, I have been able to generate over $900k in net profit across high dividend yield stocks, ETF and bonds in few months.
Melissa Elise Robinson is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment..
This was a good EDUCATIONAL video. I really learned some things about Tesla and the future stock price. Thank you. So much better than calling out stupidity in the media/politics.
In 1990 Exxon mobil had a market cap of 62,5 billion. 30 years later, in 2020, Apple had a market cap of 1,288 trillion, a 20x from what Exxon was worth. In 1990, reaching 1 trillion in market cap would seem ridiculous. Today, 3 companies has passed 3 trillion. A 20x from today would be 60 trillion. If you believe the upside from advancements in AI and robotics the next 30 years will be as good as, or better than, the upsides from tech the last 30 years, then companies reaching 60 trillion by 2054 should be possible.
yes but the markets still grew by 8% per year snd not much more for the whole tech field and you have to include that factor in your faith in the speculative part of this bet #Tesla
@@fredwinslow744 "yes but the markets still grew by 8% per year snd not much more for the whole tech field and you have to include that factor in your faith in the speculative part of this bet " The broad market will be completely disrupted by AI and robots. You can't compare that to regular mundane growth numbers. Thinks the industrial revolution on steroids.
We are modelling Tesla using 10% as their share of the market to be understandably conservative. However i wonder WHO ON EARTH would be taking the other 90%. Maybe we should be investing in them ! Or maybe 10% is unrealistically conservative??
Using the lower % also takes into account delays in getting this approved on the streets in different places. The TAM only matters after it’s approved. (Thinking about your question, not the video exactly)
"We are modelling Tesla using 10% as their share of the market to be understandably conservative. However i wonder WHO ON EARTH would be taking the other 90%. Maybe we should be investing in them ! Or maybe 10% is unrealistically conservative??" What market are you talking about here?
To my experience, they overshoot the yearly driven miles per vehicle but pricing might change the usage as drastically. I just drove a taxi on the busiest day in my town. They had sat 4 hours without work as everybody already got to the event. But time will tell us.
Wish wish wish way to high ur basically saying tesla is ultra valuable infact the most valuable beyond these levels it went through huge growing parts but not were in huge growing pains unless tesla sells a car for 25k cash I don't see the stock growing insane and mexico is gonna be responsible for this scenario
The TSLA value created to date is underrated and the value demonstrated for the horizon is jaw droppingly awesome. As someone who pokes holes in assumptions and uses data - value realization is coming sooner than many can fathom. Thanks SMR. More folks are waking up and not in the woke way.
this is the truth. they have delivered value and as such what was closer to speculation is not it is value speculation which why i would be happy putting 25% of assets in it happy to be right not greedy i didnt put it all if it rockets smr and stmp are tesla branded and he has to don’t confuse his situation with yours ✌🏽
@@mruler360 Indeed, it is now. But the economics of shipping with the Semi are not something to sleep on. Tesla could easily put other Semi makers and shipping businesses out of business if it could produce Semi's at volume. It's a $100 billion industry. Or simply lease the Semi. Even at a premium lease price, the end user will come out ahead.
Optimus production per year in 2029 is shown as 19,538 units. Seems absurdly low compared to about 1M vehicles / yr from a single plant. Perhaps this is not the latest spread sheet. Compared to the content of a car I would expect ramped Optimus production in 2029 to be north of 2M/yr, maybe 4 or 5M/yr with dedicated factory space construction starting in 2025. I would also expect them to either lease or put in a time clock and rent by the work hour with a minimum monthly charge for the bot+maint. Not sell them.
Arc doesn’t seem to be putting the bot seriously in the excel yet based on interviews. If we see the number in factories seriously start to grow they will engage. My view is Tesla has been setting up lines for years with great positions for ‘bots. The hardest part may be labor unrest. I have had a gut feeling new product lines have been delayed to reduce new hires leading to lay offs. (Probably wrong but Elon thinks waaay ahead of us)
Every crash/collapse brings with it an equivalent market chance if you are early informed and equipped, I've seen folks amass up to $1m amid economy crisis, and even pull it off easily in favorable conditions. Unequivocally, the collapse is getting somebody somewhere rich
Celia Dullpher has really set the standard for others to follow, we love her here in Canada because she has been really helpful and changed lots of life's
I was hoping you'd show the "future" backward looking chart a few days ago... and now I'd love one with Ark's previous targets, and how far we're "behind"
If Cathy Wook is that smart, why did she sell NVDA at 150? Could she not predict the massive revenue and profit increase 12 months ahead? But she is able to predict future TSLA price 6 years in the future. OK
im actually getting fedup with Ark and their outlandish targets. People need to remember that Kathy gets richer and richer the more people give her money to invest... and there is no risk to her she will never lose the money she makes.. the investors, not so much.
It was stupid of me to sell $76,000 worth of TSLA stocks without reinvesting. I might turn to cash soon if I don't. Any particulars? (Buying bonds or CDs is not for me).
well based on info from uber a trip from melb airport to southern cross should be around $45. plus skybus is $24, therefor if under $15 per trip. then likely take out both services but not quite as good as mass public transport. but robotaxi does not need a time based fee just a per km fee and a booking and base charge. so $3 base+booking and cost of $0.62/km gets you to just over $15 and with charging at 150wh/km at say $0.70aud/kwh (tesla supercharger) power cost is $3.15 for the trip means $11.85 profit and 20% to tesla of say $3 mean owner takes $8.85 for that trip excluding cleaning service. its a no brainer for anyone to run their vehicle on robotaxi network here in melbourne
im actually getting fedup with Ark and their outlandish targets. People need to remember that Kathy gets richer and richer the more people give her money to invest... and there is no risk to her she will never lose the money she makes.. the investors, not so much.
Amazon’s robotaxi unit Zoox green-lights more testing amid crash probe , if u check zoox its shape is correct and can make all cars with bonnets look like dinosaurs very fast , it can drive both ways so no need to reverse ,
Every crash/collapse brings with it an equivalent market chance if you are early informed and equipped, I've seen folks amass up to $1m amid economy crisis, and even pull it off easily in favorable conditions. Unequivocally, the collapse is getting somebody somewhere rich
Catherine Adriana was my hope during the 'bear summer' last year. I did so many mistakes but also learned so much from it, and of course from Catherine Adriana.
Catherine Adriana has really set the standard for others to follow, we love her here in Canada because she has been really helpful and changed lots of life's
It's a hard sell SMR.. I'm in and buying still but, the Infrastructure for charging.....this could come to fruition if the Solor panel is on the roof of the car. People are impatient they don't want to wait in line to charge. I'm in but WE WILL SEE.....CHARGING STATIONS ARE THE KEY.....Great vid Steven✌️👍🤙🤙🤙
You have to be super careful extracting individual runs. Each individual MC run makes sense in context of their Percentile score. Its up to the modeler to ensure the inputs make sense. But if you take them out, you can be looking at nonsensical results. Again this is fine in context because the percentile score only reflects their percentile placement within the range of results not the likelihood of it occurring. You can have at face value more plausible models giving higher or lower returns than nonsensical models. So caution is recommended.
As I watch your video on the 1st July Ark Invest seems to have already ADJUSTED their evaluation model DRASTICALLY DOWNWARDS, so that the Stock Price per share is now at 2'309 $, or what is happening? Can you confirm that or explain that? And IF so, WHY, what are the reasons...?? Thanks
I HOPE all this comes true, but we are in a current backlash against EVs (in the U.S.) because of the narrative about range anxiety and not enough charging stations. Tesla HAS to do educational advertising to overcome this...or somehow increase range to reach the numbers in Cathie's spreadsheet.
Cathie Wood’s ARKK is down 75% from its high and has stayed down at that 75% loss for over 2 years. Why not show her stock picking performance like you do Gordon Johnson’s?
she has been correct about tesla but what puts her in the hyper speculative category is that all the other tech in timing or as proportion of successful etf numbers has been totally wrong and so her monte carlo simulations which are only as good as the data you feed it for its simulations are another tool that is misleading her performance on the whole ark concept is currently wrong by timing and even possibly the idea of etf collective performance this needs to be admitted to as you suggest beyond your comment I enjoy SMR. but his lack of any humility is almost as bad a ross gerber’s is in the opposite direction this is not asperger’s it’s a little of that productive narcicism although this goes beyond your intended point
"Cathie Wood’s ARKK is down 75% from its high and has stayed down at that 75% loss for over 2 years. Why not show her stock picking performance like you do Gordon Johnson’s?" Because they are doing real research unlike Gordon. With the type of disruptive companies they invest in and given how the current macro environment have turned out, your complaints seems quite silly.
Awesome productions can’t fault them, BUT there are players out there with very deep pockets planing to discredit the fsd system, and Elon , you can take the money to the bank on that fact 😡
The only thing I don't agree with on this model is the human ridehail portions, unless they mean the Optimus bot driving someone around who wants to use their own vehicle that doesn't have FSD.
@@fredwinslow744 One of the RU-vidrs reviewed the Monty Carlo data set once and it had options in the were physically impossible. Saying that, if we assume a 80-90 on the low end estimate, the company still grows a LOT.
"Micromobility", except from the fact that Tesla will not go in on that market, the model suggests that every 2 humans on earth will be buying 3 of those every year? Did I get that wrong or have they lost their minds?
Its sad 50 comments yet u have a scam raiding your videos all u need to do is mod a few people to ban the spam. Im losing ur legitimacy naybe ur working with this scammers at this point
He is a scammer - daily videos to reassure you, whilst he harvests the ad revenue and lives an easy life. Either you believe Tesla is worth investing or you don't.
Right now the stock is crashing again, so who knows. Will it even stay above $200. Also ARK invest are some the worst ETFs you can find. When was the last time they made any money?
I personally feel that some data points in the ultra bull case come from Wackadooville and don't belong. Too much skew on the valuation from absurdity. But, Ark tends to fairly well nail it for valuation vs anyone else outside this channel. No worries I guess. If I read from the opposite end it cancels anyway. I should waste my time more effectively and just enjoy your goods, kick back and HODL $TSLA. Thanks, that's an awesome future you've described for us to to watch unfold.
im actually getting fedup with Ark and their outlandish targets. People need to remember that Kathy gets richer and richer the more people give her money to invest... and there is no risk to her she will never lose the money she makes.. the investors, not so much.
"Cathy’s performance of late leaves a lot to be desired. She’s still collecting her fees though so good for her." They are long term investors. Are you?
@@user-xj5xp6qz5g @user-xj5xp6qz5g "im actually getting fedup with Ark and their outlandish targets. People need to remember that Kathy gets richer and richer the more people give her money to invest... and there is no risk to her she will never lose the money she makes.. the investors, not so much." The market opportunity is really that big. You should try and educate yourself before bashing them out of ignorance.
I drive my FSD Tesla daily and I am just not a believer that robot taxis are around the corner. I dislike the robotaxi valuation method with a passion.
im actually getting fedup with Ark and their outlandish targets. People need to remember that Kathy gets richer and richer the more people give her money to invest... and there is no risk to her she will never lose the money she makes.. the investors, not so much.
@user-xj5xp6qz5g "im actually getting fedup with Ark and their outlandish targets. People need to remember that Kathy gets richer and richer the more people give her money to invest... and there is no risk to her she will never lose the money she makes.. the investors, not so much." The market opportunity is really that big. You should try and educate yourself before bashing them out of ignorance. It also doesn't matter how many times you spam this nonsense under this video.
The model Ark uses is great however their data (scenario’s) tend towards better outcomes than what might be more realistic for RoboTaxi. This isn’t to say Tesla won’t grow price to that level by 2029, simply that other things will need to contribute more than predicted such as Gen 3 Unboxed drivable cars, Energy exponential growth, and Optimus. Little effort is given towards to the growth of production facilities that will be needed (and CAPEX needed) to achieve this exceptional growth. This could be a growth killer for Tesla that the charts apparently don’t address.
@steven: why are you doing all this? I mean, i watch your vids since years, also believing in T$LA. If all that will happen, i can retire in some years. But you doing this since years, without a break, 24/7. And you will become sure a gigantic rich mf one day. But then what? What is your goal then? What is your motivation then? Any thoughs on this? Anyway, thank you for your work! Greetings from germany 😁
Steven Mark Ryan - 2020 - 'Well ARK Invest have come out with their new Tesla Stock Price target for 2025 ... $3000!' .....Hmmm, $3000 by next year? How did that 5 year 'guess' turn out. So before we worry about Cathy and her underling who both have approximately zero knowledge of anything technical .... can we ask them why todays stock is $200 and they said in 2020, that it would be $3000 by next year .... they didnt just miss it .. literally a handicapped child could have given a better forecast than Cathy and Tash.
Well technically he’s right due to Tesla having 2 stock splits since then! 1 split 2020 AFTER he predicted this price while they had another one in 2022.. stock price would of been 2800 and there’s still 5 months left 😂😂😂🤣😉
😂 these are all fairy tales for sure they need the factories already up and going without problems smr is delusional if they think they can get this going by 2030 no way
im actually getting fedup with Ark and their outlandish targets. People need to remember that Kathy gets richer and richer the more people give her money to invest... and there is no risk to her she will never lose the money she makes.. the investors, not so much.
"Steven lm getting sleepy can you tell me another fairy tale" If you can't see the big opportunity here you may blame it on you being sleepy. It could also be other reasons like not doing your research.
im actually getting fedup with Ark and their outlandish targets. People need to remember that Kathy gets richer and richer the more people give her money to invest... and there is no risk to her she will never lose the money she makes.. the investors, not so much.
