After 3 years of disinformation around recruitment it's nice to see someone actually do the due diligence to bring factually supported conclusions to the community. Not all heroes wear capes. (unless Kuma is wearing a cape, I guess I don't know for sure)
there is a very large spreadsheet compiled in ~march/april 2020 with recruitment data. it's definitely been done many, MANY times since then, but I don't know of any more thorough efforts with more or cleaner data. the unfortunate fact is that the community doesn't really spread info like this around because most people don't understand or care about doing statistics for gacha. so everyone reinvents the wheel over and over again since this info is hard to find and few people know about it. either way, link will be in my next comment in case they aren't allowed. if so, googling "first analysis of recruitment permit results dataset" should direct you to the dataset in question
@@tortoise-chan It's great that this exists and I totally agree that there's a problem with the good info not getting spread and frequently bad information being spread. It's compounded by the fact that these sub communities build echo chambers so if you try to correct them they just shout you down with their group. Additionally there's a larger problem in my mind because you have community staples like Moe's google doc spreadsheet that says this about recruit permits: "Buy only when you are out of recruitment permits, or want to clear this level of the store". Which has been around for years as well.
I am currently playing minosknights and Vulcan is surprisingly the most important member of my squad (you’d think it’d be Pallas). She is very much a good cao and I feel immense pain grinding for pots through recruitment and the yellow cert shop
I got extremely lucky with Vulcan. 2 dropped tag recruits gave me her, and otherwise got her max pot over time. Indra however avoids me like the plague. I have gotten her 1 time, and have 2 pots only because of the free indra/vulcan tickets.
I spend over a year and a half hunting for my final Vulcan pot, and had 4 Guaranteed Vulcan combos drop in that time. It was the most rage inducing thing of my entire life.
The data itself is already statistically mind blowing. Salute, for Your dedication. About variance itself. I've gotten only 3 top operators tag within a year. And it took me one year to get FEater from combo tags Shift and Slow altogether. But still, Zima-less till today. never see combo tag vanguard(or DP Recovery) and support in a whole year 2022.
I’m utterly impressed from your dedication, and damn these were such clean numbers. Tho I must add that there will be quite a few human errors for most doctors ie missing some 5 star combinations or stuffs.
Amazing gathering of info! Such dedication! I salute you sir. I myself don't go for the full 9 hours except when the tag is a guaranteed 4 or 5 star. 7:40 is the minimum so why not. Also wow you disregarded that Top Operator tag for Istina... GG.
I remember getting 8 top operator tags this year. 3 of those top op tag was in just the month of november. But the weird thing is for a solid 2 years of playing arknights I have not seen the "Senior Operator Tag" yet...
So this is what studying statistics in high school gets you to, calculating the sample variance in a given sample size where the mean are 3* in Arknights.
I think certain tags should not be allowed to happen together; for example I got a "Senior Operator" tag with a "Top Operator" tag at the SAME time, things like this shouldn't happen and if it does happens you should be guaranteed to get the other tag you didn't take within a short time frame. Also because of the additional units added to recruitment the pool has become bloated with 4 stars more then usual. Certain tags used to give 5 stars now give 4 stars for example support-medic used to guarantee at least a Ptilopsis or Warfarin, now its just Purestream. I feel that tags that potentially give 5 stars should have an increased rate. Again using Medic-Support for example, 1 out of 5 should be a Ptlopsis or Warfarin but now it is just 100% Purestream. Also if you look up statistics related CN vs EN; it really seems that HG tweaked the statistics to make pulls much worse for the EN servers, everything for tags to number of 5+ star recruitments, to even item drop rates for stages are on average over 5% less then CN. one or two things being lower is random stats but ALL think is just cash grabbing. then you wonder why EN server gacha games always feel worse.
2:05 It’s exactly me when it come to coding for my project. When I check my codes from half a year ago, i’m baffled as to how I managed to create them.
thank you for your hard work and hearing the data you collected! ive heard so many times that doing recruitment isn't worth it unless you have a guaranteed tag from refreshes, and ended up saving up my permits for a long time because of hearing that early on. now i realize how much i'm missing out on. so i really appreciate this video!!
@@RewriteKuma I hadn't gotten a single one of those since they added Cutter to recruitment, so I felt psyched at first. Glad I still got a Firewatch out of it regardless (though she's long been MaxPot. Nice for Certs, though. Overall my stats should match yours, at any rate. I think I might've gotten one more Top Operator tag last year going by my screenshots (and I got double Siege'd in a single week, after they'd added Bagpipe...), but even without selecting Defender/Defense tags, I'll say that Spot and Beagle have been overrepresented among my draws.
You are doing god's work man. Thank you very much for your dedication. I have started playing this game like 9 months ago, and ever since then I was very curious about all of the probabilities in recruitment. It was very frustrating that the only info about that was a gamepress article, which is at this point very outdated and vague. Now I can finally satisfy my curiosity. THANK YOU!!!!
Doing 8 hrs in Recruitment time instead of 9 hrs saves LMD and has a higher chance for 4 stars even w/o tags except if you have a tag for top operator or senior operator, do 9 hrs.
I'm still hunting for max pot Indra. Gotten her 1 time since the game launched, but Vulcan is max pot. Used both my free tickets toward Indra but I'm still waiting.
In my two years of play, I rarely had any 5* tags. It was around seven times in total. While I've had plenty of Senior Operator ones, they were 90% of the time in the same batch with the Top ones, i.e. pointless. And Tops were somewhere around 25? Close to once per month, yes.
Recently I got 2 top ops in one day 1 on cn and 1 on en both within the span of 20 minutes as well, But before that I didn't get a single top op for roughly 6 months
All i want is the conclusion for best 3* tags What kind of best? Having the least dialogue op Survival? Porkupa. Aoe? Catapult I feel like dp or medic might be a solid choice
Vanguard and Supporter are what I pull for "filler" whenever I can, because Plume, Vanilla and Orchid don't talk nearly as much as Catapult, Ansel, Hibiscus, Popukar or Lava do.
i use recruitment tags filter from gemepress first year every days daily reset and now i memories all the poison, if tags for 4* or 5* not come out i just hit 7.40 h without pick any tags and sometimes i got 4* its crazy how helpfull recruitment tags game for me, just remember guarantee 4* with two tags and you are good for guarantee 5* with two tags is almost never come out i think guarantee 4* tags support, debuff, fast redeploy, shift, support, nuker(got nerf) guarantee 5* tags crowd-control, summon guarantee 4* two tags(very rare) sniper/caster/guard/melee + slow, vanguard/dp-recovery + healing, sniper + survival, aoe + slow guarantee 5* two tags(super rare) dps/shift + defender, nuker + sniper, survival + specialist, specialist/fast-redeploy/supporter/aoe + debuff, shift/specialist + slow
Question! Do you think not having tags at all would work better if you don't get tags that guarantee a 4 star and up? Considering how few in numbers 1,2 and 3 star is compared to to 4,5 and 6 stars, would it be better to not choose a tag so you'll benefit from the insane ratio? For example: if we DON'T select a tag, the number of operators that are 4,5,6 stars is almost 8 times greater than 1,2,3 stars However if we DO select a tag like medic, the number of operators that are 4,5,6 stars is now only 6 times greater that 1,2,3 stars This could also work the other way around, if we select a specific tag like guard, the number of operators that are 4,5,6 stars is now 12 times greater that 1,2,3 stars I wonder if this ratio can be used as leverage to get more higher rarity ops from the recruitment tab
I really doubt the game would roll the complete operator pool without weighting, but, if you aren't looking for a specific op like I am, there is no real reason to use a tag anyway, so there is no reason not to try it out
Not really worth it tbh except you are playing certain niche doctor, 6* operator max pot gives you 25 yellow certs which can be considered really precious even if you're a whale.
Fun fact, it isn't completely random chance. The game rewards you with a 5 or 6 star upon completing hidden objectives. At the start of the game, it was play time, then it changed to manual clears, then you'd get 1 5/6 if you completed every objective the whole week. So that was 1 per week. After that it became milestones. I have since stopped bothering with figuring out what makes it trigger since they made it harder to figure out, and I didn't care much about rolling for what is in the recruitment pool. Would be nice if someone worked on figuring it out and shared it, I no longer have the "sanity" or time to bother.
to add, that's why the 5/6 star rate data may be faulty, as you might be unknowingly triggering whatever objective that has been internally set. There's also the very likely chance that the game no longer does this now, especially since it's been a long time since I stopped trying to figure it out. I used to have an automated sheet to make filling up the data like you did easier.
I think rather than from milestones, the game is secretly monitoring how many *6 you have in your account. Here's my reason, I have 2 accounts, one in Global server which I sometime put some real moneys to buy in game items and 0 gacha (only do 24 free pulls from limited banner) on JP server. I got literally 0 Top Operator tag in my paid account the whole year of 2022, but I got the Top Operator tag 5 times on my JP accounts (heck, I even got super lucky on my free limited banner pulls. Ling, Irene and Pozy comes within 11th to 20th pulls. Also immediately got 1 Top tag this January). Edit: so my opinion is, the less *6 you have the more likely the game will gives you Top Op Tags
In my experience when i tried to calculate things for about a month, i think i got 3 starts at a rate of 6/7; but even then, it's still worth buying all permits from the shop I'm baffled to see some vids saying "do not buy permits from shop"; i mean, objectively, even if rates were bad, golden certs are still golden certs and our monkey brain should go for them at any opportunity possible, shouldn't it?
Used to be that way for me. I tracked how many Top Operator and Senior Operator tags I got from Recruitment (started playing March of 2020 for reference), and it wasn't until last year did they even out at all. Prior to that, I saw 3 Senior Op tags (dropped one) and 8 Top Ops in 2020 2021: 2 Senior Ops (no drops) and 9 Top Ops 2022: 5 Senior Ops (1 drop) and 5 Top Ops Note that this does NOT count 5 star spooks from low-rarity tags, which must have been somewhere around two dozen in total across all three years.
Okay I know this gonna sound soo jerky but try again for atleast half a year vut do it in 7.50 minutes mark for each permit Idk why.. it might be bias. But damn the amount of 4-5 star appearing from non guaranteed tags is... a lot. And even if the statistic ended up says it didn't affect the probability you get to roll many more if youre using the 7.50.. youre saving 70 minutes from each permit and it allows you to recruit 3 op a day instead of 2. It's still a win win
I can say it won't affect the amount of recruitments I do, because I did spend every permit I had throughout the year. But you're right, considering if 7:50 would decrease the chances is something to think about, and I will continue to note my recruitments, so, I don't know about the 5 stars, since their chance is so low, it's hard to get any reasonable info with just my data, but for the 4 stars, it should yield something.
@@RewriteKuma well it should have an affect on the data if it's relative to the time and lmd spent (not that lmd has any urgency over this matter) like if it's statistically said I would get 4 star guaranteed every 5 permit.. it would not change but it will if its relative to the time spent. So if you're doing regular 9 hours so you get 4* every 54 hours (9 hours of 5 permits and 9 hours of the 4*) for one slot but if you're going for 7.50 then you'll get a 4* every 47 hours which is pretty huge... let's say you want to get a certain amount of yellow certs for the anniversary but you only have 3 months to prepare.. I'd say this is a pretty nice things to know. And if you're curious look up the video on the 7.50 minutes of recruitment
I would like to share my own observation: I have been playing Arkknights since the launch of the global version and use recruiting all the time. However, 3 times I quit the game and returned to it after a period of time from 4 to 6 months. After returning for each time, I received both a senior operator and a top operator tags within a couple of days, but no more than one week. It could be a coincidence, but it seems to me that the longer you do not have these tags, the higher the chance that they will fall. Looks like a good motivation to play for returning players?
I have been play AK for two years on my ftp account. Neither the top nor senior tag pop up. Yes, I refresh the tag every single time. Yes, I did the daily recruitment. Did I do somethibg wrong? Or am I just unlucky with this recruitment?
I always get the robot tag but idk how much time I need to spend. So that's why whenever I attempt to get a robot, it's always a fail. Can some of you tell me what time I need to spend to guarantee a robot?
if you up your time by 10 min, one click at a time, you'll see that the "1★" and "2★" symbols will go away, I don't remember exactly, but I think up to 3:50, you can still get 1★, which are robots, make sure to check
![[Arknights] What One Year Of Recruitment Looks Like](/img/logo.svg){kind=logo}
