Beta Sorcery - Expected Value - December 4 2023 - Sorcery Contested Realm 

It’s a beautiful game and fun to open. A blast. Most fun I’ve ever had opening a product. I hope it continues to be so moving forward.

Glad to see more content coming from everyone's brand new favorite Sorcery Content creator!!!!

and why is anyone paying more than MSRP? Team Covenant has been selling for $150 for months.

Team Covenant has a great deal with the Sorcery people to keep the price at MSRP. I'm ordering Beta and the upcoming sets from them, the subscription deal seems really good

If you want a screenshot of the up to date data when you're going to record one of these, just hmu buddy - happy to help. Also all I heard was its official - MARKET UPDATE IS BACK, YALL!

I have a small pile of boxes , i saw that in cabada they went straight up to $249 CAD over the last 2 days , i fomod and found the only few available for 199 and grabbed 2 more 😂

I got the pre constructed decks and the store i ordered from let me buy a quarter of a box. I just wanted a few cards to add in and out of the deck if I want to. I was pretty happy with my pulls, but I'm not planning on paying completely.

Seems like a surprisingly fair estimation

I think these boxes will be over $200 by the end of the week. Hopefully more supply hits the market or they surprise us with an Unlimited version.

Another comment. The variance between even a normal non-God box that isn't really good, and the God-box spread is why you can see a EV of $300. Boxes seem to have a return value of either $600+ or like $100 at best. if you don't open a foil Unique, or a Core/Stone, your box is going to be a major dud. Most people seem to have those. Lots of people sharing their amazing 1 out of X boxes that includes 2 NF cores, a foil Core and 2 other foil Uniques, but no one is showing their dud boxes. So while EV is $300, if you aren't opening a ton of boxes you mileage may greatly vary.

Rudy got 10k boxes alone, TC most likely around there as well so I'm guessing they doubled the print run and released half out the gate. $180 is way too much for a box of cards, definitely too much for a new tcg which needs players. I'd be shocked if Erik doesn't start dripping more boxes out soon or this will be a long year in between releases. I wouldn't touch a box over $140 and I'm not even looking at singles until June at the earliest.

Interesting numbers. The issue with beta, from the 5 boxes I had and the countless I've seen on YT and on Reddit, boxes and cases are really hit or miss. Much more so than alpha IMHO. There's either $70-100 in value or $200-300+. Cases seem to be either hot or not. I know I'm addicted. I have 3 more boxes of Beta in me before I move in (betting on getting the Rudy kit again). After that I'll have to start saving and wait for the next set. With beta's issues and misprints I'm betting we get an unlimited set in late 2024. I'm guessing early summer for Arthurian Legends. At least that's what I would do

I would almost want to see the EV without the "big hit" foils included. So if you remove the averages of the top 7 or so Unique foil cards what do the numbers look like? If you don't get a non-foil Stone or a Core do the boxes still hold decent value? Or do you need a decent hit to make the box worth the cost?

I've opened 6 boxes and opened exactly 7 NF uniques each and every time. No way anyone should expect 9, and probably not even 8. 7 seems like the overwhelming median number. 9 might be OK for Alpha, but 7 is what i see from Beta.

Sounds like Sorcery is going strong. One point i would like to make is that IF they are only dripping out boxes instead of putting all the boxes out there for the players/collectors to see the prices keep climbing & people having to pay more - Is that not market manipulation ??. Still I do love the ART...

Louie, what do you feel like one Dust code holds in value on the open market?? Just curious how people value Dust at this time.

The Foil rarity odds are supposedly 1/3/6/7. So a Unique Foil is 1/17 chance.

Why are people buying on tcgplayer when team covenant has them for $150?

I've had beta boxes with as low as 6 uniques and at most 8

I have been playing Magic for 8 years now, nothing against them, but I can not keep up with all the 35 different sets, commander decks, card treatments, etc… my pocket book can’t handle it. I still play but I have transitioned more towards Sorcery for this reasons. Too much product for Hasbro. Still cool, and I enjoy a good commander game. Sorcery is not the Magic killer, However Sorcery has gained a lot of attention in my LGS.

Having opened 12 cases for singles on TCGPlayer I dont think pull rates you're using for EV calculation are accurate. Uniques are 6-9 per box, so I'd calculated at 7.5 per box to split the range. Most cases are 1, maybe two unique foils per case. I say a .25 multiplier per box for the unique foil is more accurate for EV calculation in beta. Even then it's going to be a matter of how clumped the cases from your supplier are. Using the average tcgplayer price I'd say 240-250 per box is a more accurate EV. If you're trying to have the cards be liquid then you should use the low which will put the box ev around 200-210 before fees and shipping. Even calculating at the low youre on average going to get your money back at the 170-180 price point per box which tells me the box prices are too low at the moment. Boxes are never priced at EV for long there is always a gambler's premium eventually especially with the current supply constraints. Without word on if we're getting more boxes I'd say 170-180 is a good buy at the moment foe current singles demand. The box price will get more expensive. Especially once Team Covenant goes out of stock. On another note. I don't agree that it's a safe assumption that Rudy is being delivered 6000 more boxes and that more are being printed. It's very possible that he set aside a large portion of his allocation for a second sale at higher margin.

First

Yeah, for me, anything more than $150 for Sorcery is a nonstarter. $150 is a buy price that Sorcery only gets out of appreciation for the style and gameplay. No organized play, one set a year, and the highest per box MSRP price of any current TCG outside Lorcana is tough. Frankly, the margin at $150 is pretty good for stores and I hope more stick at that. Otherwise Sorcery is going to go the Metazoo route and just be a finance and hype based game with very minimal actual groups playing. Hope Sorcery team brings a big second wave to market. Great video from the biggest Sorcery content creator!

Beta release for a Beta Game....

The only people buying this product are the people who wished they bought Magic in its infancy for $3.99 a pack. Magic...a game targeting kids...sold to kids...and played by kids...who grew up...and taught their kids how to play. My Dad bought me my first Magic cards in unlimited...not as an investment, but for something for us to do. We sat for hours playing. I continued playing...until at long last I had I kid...now he plays with me. (collection is vastly larger now) How does this company expect to last if its #1 demographic is frantic FOMO cardboard collectors and not kids? Who Cares? Take the money and run. This game was meant to create scarcity. It is the model of everything players hate about MTG. The sad part is...most players will not get the chance to play Sorcery....because it is so outrageously expensive. Magic was cheap...got a loyal player base...and got Expensive, Sorcery is Expensive...has a "members only" players base...and at this rate...will fade into niche circles with too much money to burn. $1,700 for a booster box? FOMO at its best. Good luck with your cardboard investment...kids can't afford to play this....kids will grow up not playing this. Good luck with your cardboard investment.

Any idea what the print run was?