A U.S. Geological Survey study of core samples from the ocean floor, taken near the Juan de Fuca fault off the coast of Oregon, shows that large, so-called megaquakes of more than 7.5 magnitude have occurred on average every 246 years during the past 10,000 years. The Last Full rupture occurring 324 years ago. We see 19 earthquakes in the last 10,000 years that ruptured the entire length of the Cascadia fault, which requires roughly an M9 event to shift the 1000km coastline by the 10-20 meters expected. The last one, in 1700AD, was not proven until the 1990s. The interval between events has been observed to vary from 200 to 800 years, so if the future is like the past, the event is likely to hit any time from now until 500 years from now. The long thick lines in the figure are these biggest events. This and the last figure are from a recent review of the history of faulting along Cascadia inferred by Prof. Goldfinger.
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27 авг 2024