CWU's Nick Zentner presents 'Slow Earthquakes' - the 3rd talk in his ongoing Downtown Geology Lecture Series. Recorded at Raw Space on October 27, 2010 in Ellensburg, Washington, USA. www.nickzentner.com
This entire lecture series is so incredibly informative, and Professor Zentner has a very fun style of presenting that makes it easy to follow along and stay entertained as well as focused.
I took "Geology in the Rockies" through the U. Of Michigan 20 years ago. And while there is nothing like seeing evidence in person, Nick Zentner has filled my pandemic with more Geology joy. Thank you from Wisconsin! (I know you're from here!)
I love that Professor Zentner speaks in language that's understandable even to someone like me. Having no more than a High School education, I am still able to comprehend his lectures. I have quite an interest in Geology and specifically Plate Tectonics. I was never 'Book Smart' however I can still enjoy and comprehend this series of lectures. My thanks for making this series.
Slowly working my way through this entire lecture series (I'm a geology interested Swede, but my fiance is from Wa and I love the place). Nick Zetner has to be one of the best lecturers out there!
@@Ellensburg44I'm so excited that I just found your website after watching many of your lectures. I loved my time in the Rockies through Geology@the U. Of Michigan, but your lectures have made this pandemic easier to bear. Thank you!!
I show many of Dr. Zentner's lectures in my HS science classes (Geology and Earth science) when I have a SUB, and also as homework for students to come back to class and discuss. I also show them while I am present in class. Geology was my major in college, at UWYO, and I absolutely LOVE his style. He makes things easy for even my 8th grade students to understand! Thank you Dr. Zentner for sharing your knowledge like this!
@@Ellensburg44 It is so true, Nick! If our 'boat' ever comes in I am moving back to Cle Elum and I am going to be one of your students! Right now I am one of your video students! Aged and grey haired you bet I'll be a vigorous student! Dying to go on a field trip with you and your red bow tie. Still waiting for you to talk about the New Madrid Fault and the Mississippi! I know it isn't the PNW but you can easily use it to demonstrate differences in volcanism! I mean reversing the Mississippi for a time? Wow. I am abusing the knowledge that the Mississippi is close to your heart, grins! Big huggs, Mister!!
I would have done this in my classes had I discovered these lectures back then, however, I taught in New York and Philadelphia. The Geology is quite a bit different :)
Just a 20 minute warning would save thousands of lives. But would they tell us in fear of panic? Some of the most important work in history of science being done here.
We get “Amber Alerts” on our phones so why not a “Scrambler” alert aka git outta dodge ASAP….I’m tempted to move into our big motorhome… its used to bouncing around the road
He is the best professor at Central Washington University. I wish we were lucky enough to have his twin here in San Antonio. Would gladly trade our river walk for a professor like him.
Mr. Zentner you are an absolutely wonderful teacher! I do have some questions about the ETS events. If these events are taking place beneath the lock zone and the lock zone is not moving, then wouldn't the NA plate be slowly ripping itself apart or at the least, twisting itself up? Has anybody measured the uplift and correlated that to the ETS events? Thank you for the greatest geology lectures EVER..!.
Nick, I'm always enthralled at your presentation of this subject; it helps that my interest in NW geology has grown late in life, but you make it interesting, pertinent, and informative. You convey a great grasp of the big picture. As a kid I lived in SoCal during the Sylmar quake in Feb '71 and my family owned a condo in Mammoth Lakes, which I only learned 10 years ago was built on the western edge of the Long Valley Caldera. That got me interested in the geology of this area (I live in Vancouver, WA), and I consider it a fortunate privilege to happen upon your lectures at a university complex that is essentially Ground Zero for our study of Cascadia and the overall geology of the area. Are you going to have any updated lectures series re: Cascadia in the near future, given how our knowledge of its dynamics is growing exponentially?
4:42 like stuck gears and then poiiinggg the stresses reach a point where they over come the friction and like a spring uncoiling they dump all that energy from decades in a few seconds...
Just found this series and I am enthralled with the "new" knowledge from a gifted professor. Wishing there was an update as now it is ten years later. I also wonder if the k owledhe extends up to Alaska's earthquake loving dirt. I was a child of four in the 64 mega quake and have ridden out many less severe. Someday perhaps we will het a warning, keep up the good work.
Great job explaining a complicated subject. I understood it just fine. I'm watching all the old lectures because I have enjoyed learning from the new ones. I don't have any training in geology and live in the central boring plains but I am hooked on the complicated amalgum of Washington as you explain it. Thank you!
The slow quakes might represent a difference in plasticity between the near surface and the 50 km deep zones? Is there a way to prove or disprove this?
I just went back every 14 months from the dates identified in this lecture and arrived at January 1700. Going back that far though, the margin of error (say 14 months 3 days), over 323 years, that’s a very wide margin of error. But I found it interesting.
I've o.ly come yo this series recently and am enjoying it. I like the GPS stations for those measurements. I've lived in Silicon Valley for many years although I'm a Montana native, but I di remember when I was studying laser tech in the late 70s, that tht USGS in cooperation with USAF and Lick Observatory set up a system with a laser mounted at a USAF station on Mt Umunhum (Pacific plate, within spitting distance of the Loma Prieta quake epicenter), with detectors set up at Lick Observatory across the valley --and on the North American plate. They used this system to monitor the San Andreas system. Two of the Dan Andreas brach faults (Calaveras and Hayward) were also between. With the GPS stations they could isolate movements of the few dozen branch faults that litter this area.
Prof. Nick, what if there are divisions within the N.A plate, not a uniform plate, with different sections running at different rates, and interacting differently with the other plate, or even within its own plate; an intra-plate activity
good work dood.., I got hit by a M6.3 and M7.3 within 30 hrs right under my feet here in Kumamoto Japan .. luckily my house is still standing although its a wooden 100 yr old structure... interesting world we live in
Do the GPS stations include weather stations to improve data collection? The more data points you have the better you can data mine the results later and you never know when climate data could impact geology until someone pokes the saved data and finds a link later.
I find the animation at 50:10 really interesting. It seems to make clear that an expanding ocean ridge, even after being subducted, continues to expand, causing the overlying plate to expand as well (which makes sense of the fact that Nevada is expanding)
Great lecture, Professor Zentner! I was wondering from the time this lecture was recorded if there has been any more insight to why the back step happens at different intervals depending on the region. I remember from the other lecture that the rotational travel is greater at the coast than it is closer to the Pendleton pivot. Has anyone looked into the possibility that this is a function of distance and not time? In other words, the back step happens after X amount of travel that builds the pressure then releases.
Sir Zentner of the marvelous geology series, I am almost done with ALL of these, and as I'm listening and studying these two-week windows, it struck me that it's rather like the planet is breathing ... or going into deep meditation where she slows her breathing down a lot. Slow long inhale (subduction), slow long exhale (reversal). Really interesting. I've been studying EQ patterns and locations for years, so I'll now start looking more deeply at PNW EQs ... really intriguing stuff. I suppose the next question is: ARE they still occurring? This, being April 2018 as I'm posting this ... I shd mention, I live in Ocean Shores. We're VERY pragmatic about the possible 9.0 out here. LOL
"3cm per year" = 0.00003km per year = 30km per million years Earth's equatorial circumference is ~40,000km. @3cm per year it will take 1,333,333,333 years to circumnavigate the globe. In the 4.6 billion years of earth time one could theoretically be on lap 3.45 traveling just 3cm per year. ...While most of us will never experience 1 lap in our lifetimes :-)
Doc, great presentations! A question keeps coming in my mind when I listen to these. Is Yellowstone hotspot really stationary in geologic time? Did plates move over hot spot or did plates move and hot spot move (seems more likely to me)? How did that part of Pangea that is now Wa. Move overtime? Where was “Wa.” 50 ma ago? Etc. there seems to be more moving parts (4 dimensions) at work, right? Jim in Minnesota.
Thanks Jim. Most basic view is stationary hot spots and moving plates. Search for Christopher Scotese on RU-vid - he has some excellent global maps showing plate movement since Pangea.
Question: Is the scenario you describe here with the NA plate and the subductong JDF plate, similar in any way to the rising and falling, the breathing, seen at
Hello Professor, I have a question. In another lecture you were speaking about dinosaur bones from Mexico being found in Northern Washington State. You also spoke about the Magnitudes of California Great Earthquakes averaging around 7. I am questioning whether the episodic slow slip events that occur every 14 months are not releases of energy in the transitional zone, but additional energy being added from movements of the Pacific Plate adding Northward pressure onto the Quan De Fuca as it travels East? I know that I have no way of proving any of this. My thought is if the question is not asked, sometimes we do not look. The Quan De Fuca is being steadily dragged while it is locked under the North American Plate causing uplift and great pressure. The Northwest movement of the Pacific Plate causing a twisting, stretching type pressure on the stuck and locked Quan De Fuca. The episodic, 14 month backwards movement, could then be an indication of an additional stressor to the region and not the slight release it would seem to be? How Does the Pacific Plate interact with the Quan De Fuca? If the Quan De Fuca takes a bit of a breather in its Northeasterly pressure on the North American Plate, this does mean that the Pacific Plate has stopped moving and applying its pressure on the Quan De Fuca? That pressure which is Northwesterly could actually be the cause of the backward movement and stoppage that we see in those 14 month episodic tremor and slip events? Perhaps it is because of this additional twisting taffy type pull of the area and the "extra" energy and deformity added by the step backwards, 14 month events, that Washington State great earthquakes increase magnitude by 2?? I hope my thoughts make some sense. I appreciate your time.
16:21 kinda makes sense if you think about it really imagine a big pile of shingle sitting on a tray and then you mover the tray and the shingle at the bottom of the tray moves first then the single above it moves and so on and so on up to the top of the pile
Thank you for making this public! I have been studying this slow slip event just as a person who's fascinated by geology. I also grew up in Wa. I recently came across a popular RU-vid channel called dutchsinse. Have you heard of him? He has been working on a method of forecasting earthquakes. Some of his theories fly in the face of what is currently being thought about the way the plates are moving but what he has to say seems to make some sense if you can listen long enough to get past his angst of professionals in the field. :) I'm curious if you've ever looked into his theories and if so, what is your opinion of them? He has many followers watching this "slow slip event". Thanks!!
Thanks for watching, Brittani. Yes, I'm aware and have watched some of his stuff. He is cherry-picking some of the data to fit his forecasts...not an honest and complete reporting of what we know and don't know about earthquakes here in the PNW. I'm all for creative thinking and lone voices...but I don't see his work helping matters.
You really grab the attention and keep it of young and old . I am old ! I have watched many ! What is your opinion our threat currently with the cascadia subduction zone going now . I worry about my kids , they live near the Des Moines Marina I worry it's to close to the water and not enough time to get to higher ground . Thank you for any reply .
Nick Zentner thank Nick ! Curious your thoughts on Dutchsinse who has been forecasting earthquakes for over years 8 years and has been called out by many as a fraud and nuts and fake , told that earthquakes can't be forecast , pressure can't transfer and now a scientist at the UW who has called him out for years has teamed up with CHINA and came out with a model and say Earthquakes Forecasting ! Its incredible .. A scientist who works hard for people in his garage gets treated this way by the media FB you tube it's unreal . He is the real original forecaster it doesn't change his work by changing words from tomato to tamata lol Don't know how some can look in the mirror. I love your work ! Stay true Nick ..please support the little guy in the garage ! He is brilliant . God Bless .
Impressed with his Google Earth skills and websites. Very discouraged by his portrayal of geologists doing the research. Outraged with his narratives/predictions using only some of the data collected. I'm all for the little guy, but he is doing us all a disservice with his paranoia.
Nick Zentner I respectively disagree. He does not predict , he forecasts just like weather . And the ones that he has slammed have only been so called slammed when he has been called out . Paranoia? Be honest here there is lots of youtubers who are on here just for hits on there channels who promote fear porn . When Dutch does make a forecast a warning for a area that is bad he wants to be wrong hopes to be . Much to more then not he isn't . Facts are facts his method works , it's not perfect but it's giving more then anyone else has and people use it . Thanks for the response
I've been binge watching Nick's lectures for about a week now. This is the first one that's making me a bit motion sick. The zoomed-in camera setting, the weird choice to track all of his impassioned movements about the stage and the frequent captioning of the title of the lecture makes me need to leave the screen from time to time. Si distracting! I hope this was the only time the AV crew who recorded this lecture are doing valet parking or something now, instead. Urp.
Nick, I wonder if these silent earth quakes are in fact a safety mechanism that safely releases large amount of slippage energy in the reverse so it is let go quietly, slowly so damage isn't done or is reduced by this regular sudden reversal in the strike or motion zone or slippage zone. If this is the case are there other areas that have this natural trip mechanism?
So it has been more than adequately demonstrated that there is uplift on land from being smooshed. Can it not then be hypothesised that the underwater plate is doing something similar? In ever animation we see a simple static model subducting under the huge continental plate. Surely there has to be a buckling up as the oceanic plate is also stuck and being rammed under the the continental plate. So on either side of the trench there should be a buckling up. We see this on land, why not under water. Of course it's a lot harder to measure down there, haven't got those students living in Holiday Inns installing GPS receivers. ;) Great lectures too by the way. Fascinates me. Yelling across the pond from Oz where we also have some fascinating geology.
Hey Phil. Yeah, geologists tend to is/ought sometimes with the narrative. They sometimes fill in holes with a common sense guess and then bank on it like it's a constant, not a variable. This makes the latter chapters a little like wishfully thinking. I've been thinking about this since about 1970 when my class took a field trip to the Salem/Eola hills and dug up seashells at about the 100' elevation level. "This is an anomaly", was the explanation at the time. I can guess as an autodidact as well as the next guy, I guess. I don't think we have to look any further than Siletzia. Sometime in the past, deep in the ocean, Siletzia grew like a huge scab over a major hot spot. It wanted to be a huge island someday, but suddenly it was hit by the North American plate, (NAP). Nap hits the underwater island of Siltezia and partially covers it, slides right over the top. Instead crushing bumpers like a car wreck, picture a monster truck bouncing it's front wheels over a car - and then getting partially stuck and dragging the car along. I believe this is what happened. In the early stages Nap slid over Siletzia like hot butter since there was no coastal range, but soon the weight builds pressure around about where I-5 now travels N/S. I think I see the results in the red clay soil that's on top of the hills around here. Red clay layer that can be over 20' thick, (they say up to 21' thick), spread over miles. Possible vent, like it's pure with no rocks or debris until you get to lower elevations. I picture friction at the edge of Siletzia making clay and venting a little. Not much - until it gets to where the Cascades are now, sticking to the bottom of Nap - and breaking the scab off. It instantly starts bleeding on the Oregon/Idaho border, and bleeds all the way to the coast, even around and partially through our hill of clay that sits on top of a fault. Since then we have two plates on the west side of Nap, like a two layer cake that work semi-independent of each other - acting like a bumper and shock absorbing oscillator and a bearing surface - a boogie board. I think that for 14 months I am riding Siletzia like a boogie board at the beach. There's a point toward the south that drags a little. You can see the southern edge by driving the Or/Cali border and all the hot springs. However, for two weeks every 14 months I am back on Nap, slogging steadily west when the pivot loses traction and resets. With a big enough lever you can move the Earth. Siletzia works like a cam and a bearing that moves an inch at a time.
Thanks for that considered and detailed explanation of what you have observed and thought about. I love that sort of observation and pondering the why's of what we see. Love it.
All of Professor Zeitner's videos are fascinating, but *_THIS_** one is SPELLBINDING!* The cyclic creating of tension, then that slow release - *_WOW,_** AMAZING!* "Old Mother Nature" certainly has _STILL MORE_ hidden tricks up her sleeve, doesn't She?! Keep telling us about these, will you, Nick? THANKS!
If you could input the data of all these "14-month-off/2-week-on" ETS events from the past across all these separate segments along a big map of the Pacific Northwest, (updating them individually as they release, of course)......then run the animation forward in time, I wonder if you'd be able to see any moment(s) in the future when a big group of them harmonize. That would be a compelling thing to set up on a computer. Granted, it wouldn't be any kind of earthquake forecast, but it sure would be a scenario to plan for in terms of data collection, & then maybe plan one's vacation to be somewhere else during that time.
Good idea, Ben. I've seen just what you describe in different forms online...but cannot find on RU-vid this evening. Those kinds of animations are interesting, but do not reveal any meaningful patterns.
And while we’re gone and safe all the bad guys will stay behind and then rob our houses but then the biggy hits and burnt toast they all die when the roofs cave in and they all die! Ha. What a concept
Do these plates ever change their speed? Is there any correlation that can be found to show upticks of earthquakes and volcanism every 206 years during the Grand Solar Minimums?
I love these, but somewhere I missed how the Jd F got to the point it dove instead of pushing into and rising up into mountains. What was the action that caused that - a Raft from Baja ? Or was this an eon before when North America broke away from the total mass ? My family lived through the Loma Preiata Quake (Santa Cruz Ca) called the San Fran Quake (70+ miles away). Our Property of Coastal Redwoods and home moved 7 feet to the North west when the whole county moved at once! Sounds like a ratchet in force on Washington western region.
why not? Just need some math and a small software program. SInce, we know that there is a fixed 14 months of going NE and 2 week s window of going SW. So extrapolating that over 300 years will give us the answer. Or do you think these windows might have changed in the past?
I just went back every 14 months from the dates identified in this lecture and arrived at January 1700. Going back that far though, the margin of error (say 14 months 3 days), over 323 years, that’s a very wide margin of error. But I found it interesting.
I missed it. When did he fall down like he promised? Also it would be nice if they would stop putting graphic overlays on top of the graphs and charts and animations he is showing.
I know this is probably heresy, but what if the hotspot isnt fixed, but is moving as well? Has anyone mapped the location of the world's hotspots in relation to each other and to the stars? It seems a bit too simple to assume the hotspot is fixed. Nature is never simple.
Must be pretty accurate. Because the video predicts an earthquake In October 2018. Last night, (October 21&22, 2018) three cat 6 earthquakes were detected off the coast of Vancouver BC. Nice work CWU.
I know of a missing link in the education of geologists. They tell us that our planet Earth has the most to fear from an asteroid impact or volcano eruptions. But when we look at the many horizontal layers that we find everywhere on our planet, we clearly see the effect of a repeating cataclysm. These disasters are mentioned in ancient books like the Mahabharata from India and the Popol Vuh from the Mayans and others. They tell us about a cycle of seven disasters that separate the eras from the world. Certainly, regularly recurring global disasters cannot be caused by asteroid impacts or volcanic eruptions. The only possible cause is another celestial body, a planet, orbiting our sun in an eccentric orbit. Then it is close to the sun for a short period and after the crossing at a very high speed it disappears into the universe for a long time. Planet 9 exists, but it seems invisible. These disasters cause a huge tidal wave of seawater that washes over land "above the highest mountains." At the end it covers the earth with a layer of mud, a mixture of sand, clay, lime, fossils of marine and terrestrial animals and small and larger meteorites. Forests that existed are flattened and because of the pressure from the layers on top the wood is changed into coal. These disasters also create a cycle of civilizations. To learn much more about the recurring flood cycle, the re-creation of civilizations and its chronology and ancient high technology, read the e-book: "Planet 9 = Nibiru". It can be read on any computer, tablet or smartphone. Search: invisible nibiru 9
If I figured it right, the next "episodic tremor and slip" in the Seattle area will be in December 2019. And if they are the times when there is a higher potential to have a mega quake and tsunami...
thanks for all the great info, BTW i have numerous field samples from the Wynoochee river of that green banded chert from the "BAJA BC" episode on my picnic table along the river.
Are you talking about Centimeters or Millimeters?10 Centimeters is 100 millimeters. So, is the north east direction of western Washington 15 millimeters or 150?
