Model will say Mich by like 6-7 and they will come up with some excuses as to why the computer could not get accurate reading on Mich. They both will pick Wash by 3-5 pts
every single show these guys start with “we picked the game wrong, but we weren’t actually that wrong even though we picked the complete wrong team to win and here’s why”
These two idiots just can't get off the "if this WOULD have happened"....this should have been....if Alabama did this, it could have....well, it didn't. We want to listen to reality... not fantasy scenarios....these two men just can't help themselves
Totally agree but I still like listening to these guys cause they still go more in depth than a lot of other channels even if they’re always wrong lol. But yeah I don’t care for the explaining away your bad pick that’s just dumb.
"We're trying to predict the behavior of 18-21 year olds throwing around an oblong ball" is also true. They, like many people, assumed that Alabama had figured some stuff out after the SEC championship. Unfortunately, Alabama forgot everything they had figured out, and Michigan was out for blood.
Your pick, and your model, did not factor in Michigan having an uncharacteristically abysmal special teams performance. If Michigan had a normal special teams performance, that game is probably a 2 score win for Michigan. It really did not feel as close as you guys are suggesting.
Finally a factual Bama QB analysis: Jalen Milroe 16/23 116 yds a fumble and a 3rd down slide 2 yds shy of the 1st down... Plus taking two 3rd down sacks making 2 easy field goals 50yds each for Will Reichard that he amazingly made... Jalen Milroe is literally the most over-hyped QB i've ever seen. 🙄
im surprised how close the game was w/o Alabama posing a passing threat I think UM has a lot of favorable matchups against Washington's defense, but Wash's offense will be by far the best UM has seen all year. Ppl kept saying Milroe is the best QB michigan has seen all year... ehh lol
@MichiganMan-oz4iz I grew up in Michigan but went to UA. That was a weird one for me. Disappointed we lost but I hope Michigan wins one. Don't blow it. This is Michigan's best chance in my lifetime.
What game were you guys watching? "Michigan capitalized on every error and every mistake". Like missing the field goal after Milroe fumbled at mid-field that resulted in zero points? It was Michigan who made way more mistakes and allowed Bama to stay in it. Michigan is a superior at scrimmage and it showed.
Michigan’s whole offensive game plan was based on motion and misdirection. Most of their big plays came by causing Alabama to bust coverage and capitalizing on it. In terms of 1-on-1 matchups Michigan struggled to produce anything at all in the game.
@@CollegeFootballNerds I don't know what point you're trying to make. I watched every snap of Michigan through 14 games this year and can say that's just their offense. Michigan's o-line blocked it better this game than in their other big games. Michigan's d-line dominated Bama's o-line way more than Bama's d-line did to Michigan's o-line. McCarthy had plenty of time to throw and Michigan's receivers exploited Bama's man coverage on crossing routes time and time again.
Interesting to hear your guys SEC perspective. A lot of people seem to discredit Michigans players and continue to credit coaching, but Michigans D-line was better, Michigans O-line was better. 10 TFL’s to 1 TFL is dominating the LOS. Michigan had the better QB play, and you could argue Michigan had the better secondary.
Michigan by 10-11 was plausible if they didn't self destruct on special teams. Alabama capitalized on michigans mistakes, especially the first 7 points.
Exactly these guys are in complete denial. Embarrassing themselves as usual. Michigan had 10 tfl, 6 sacks Bama 1 n 1 Michigan dominated the yardage If they replayed this game again I'm taking Michigan
Or if Bama has better snaps, that first interception had counted (he was inches out of bounds, or muffed punt late would have bounced 2 yards further Bama would have won
@@PurpleHazeVanNederlands bama got dominated up front and Michigan completely took away the pass game. Also the center was bad all season so that's no excuse. Bama didn't play bad- they just got outplayed by a better team. Cheers, go blue🎉
But they didn't... The mistakes were closer to equal. Alabama with their snapping issues and the muffed punt that bounced perfectly for Michigan to recover at the one-yard line.
@@AJMuma Just because they overcame it a few times doesn't mean they aren't mistakes... If anything it proves the inverse. Imagine how many TDs they would have scored if they could actually snap the ball?
Michigan has the 4th most players in the nfl. Alabama isnt better on paper. They may have better high school talent. But they don’t develop as well as Michigan. Will Johnson was the best corner on the field. They had the best defensive line. Best offensive line. Michigan was the superior team the whole game.
Trying to explain to people that Michigan was the more talented team and that recruiting rankings are only useful in retrospect is like talking to a brick wall.
As a Bama Fan the Better team won. Alabama just didn't seem prepared and Michigan was better coached team. Once Alabama got ahead I thought for sure they were going to pull it out and the 4th Down and 2 was a back breaker.
Offense kept stalling out every time we were about to go up by 2 scores in the 4th. We should have run the ball more. The running game was working. The passing game was terrible.
55 is decent. We don't know if it was 10 or 20 yards longer what would have happened. Diesnt really matter. That 1st td they got would have been long if they were further back. That boy busted that 34 yard td. That said. GO BLUE. GO GET THAT NATTY.
I'm surprised we actually had an opportunity to win given how incompetent our QB play was. Good luck in the natty. Will be rooting for Michigan but am finally a believer in Washington.
And if Michigan doesn't make uncharacteristic mistakes they probably win by 11 or 12.😂... The snapping is an issue that Bama has been dealing with all year.
Yeah these guys’ take is really sus in the sense that it’s about Alabama playing bad while previously leaving these things out when they picked Bama to win. Makes no sense at all
SEC homers to the max unfortunately. when they opened the segment by talking about how "the model was more wrong than we were!" i cracked up @@kryptokc3800
they definitely let there human SEC bias get in the way of objectively looking at the game and the teams as a whole this season. while generally the SEC is great and unquestionably the best conference, it was definitely down this year because of poor QB play. Alabama had so many questionable and bad games compared to michigan this year i just don’t get how people didn’t see thet
This analysis makes zero sense... You pick against Michigan AND Washington prior to the games, yet your conclusion at the end is that WA vs TX is a 50/50 were they to play 10 more times but Michigan vs Bama would be a 70/30? Washington was up by 13 going into 4th quarter after DOMINATING the 3rd, then let it get close thanks in part to a completely flukey injury coupled with the stupid 'injury time out' rule. Meanwhile BAMA was up on Michigan into the 4th and it eventually went to overtime. What exactly after watching these games makes you think an overtime game where Michigan had to come back to even get into overtime makes them a 70/30 over bama versus washington who was up by two scores going into the 4th and allowed it to get close in the last 90 seconds of the game is a 50/50 toss up? If anything, the most dominant looking team writ large between those 4 was WASHINGTON. They had an extreme advantage versus Texas's secondary, and to think otherwise (as you both mentioned you did) proves you are watching numbers as opposed to the actual games. Also, you mention 'it is hard to compare teams relative strength when they are siloed in their own conferences'..... What? No shit sherlock, that's why you WATCH THE GAMES. It was clear to anyone who actually watched college football this year that the Pac 12 was leaps and bounds a BETTER conference than the Big 12. Outside of the single decent QB Texas faced all year, Dillon Gabriel who, if you remember, Texas LOST to, they played ZERO good quarterbacks. NONE. That you say you weren't sure how Washingtons QB and Receivers would stack up against the Texas secondary shows because of 'conference relative strength' shows, once again, you looked at numbers as opposed to actually watching games.
I think you are totally justified in your Michigan pick and you defense of the pick makes sense. But the Washington pick I think really comes from not keeping up with the team closely enough. In your preview you correctly pointed out that some of the close games for Texas had context that made the team look worse than they actually were. Washington was not given that benefit of the doubt even though they had McMillan injured, the team had the flu, and Penix didn't look right because he had a rib injury. At the start of the season before these things came up they were the best passing attack in the nation. Once they had a month off to get fully healthy they were once again the best passing attack in the nation.
Texas also got bad Ewers in the first half. People often overlook how inconsistent he is. He can make any throw on the field but can also miss any throw on the field. The only game he consistently hit throws and consistently hit deep throws for the only time in his career was the game against Alabama this year. I had him as the X-factor to either win the game or lose the game based on his performance. Its ironic turnovers kept Texas in the first half but then when Ewers started to play good in the second half they started fumbling.
@@thomasfrederick71 Your comment and Greenearth's comment are why I picked Washington. It's sad that the Nerd's didn't analyze Washington closely enough when they portray themselves as unbiased. I realized that Washington could not be stopped by the Texas defense. On the other hand and to your comment, it isn't so much as Ewer's play that is inconsistent as much as it is the whole Texas offense. Texas overcomplicates their offense and it leads to Texas stopping themselves which they did in epic fashion throughout the game.
Lmao!!! I am a Husky fan. Just listened to 2 commentators who couldn’t come to grips with reality. They admitted they were wrong but turned themselves into pretzels to convince themselves they were right. The ending comment was most telling when Jayden blurted out Texas … errr … I mean Washington … It’s called cognitive dissonance ….
I have been arguing with people all year about the same thing regarding FSU. Pre-Jordan Travis injury I think FSU was probably the best team in the country. People think Washington = PAC-12 = bad. I think they thought the same of FSU. In my mind FSU and Washington were the only 2 truly elite offenses the entire year. Both teams had levels to their offense and could take it to that next level when needed. FSU and Washington would have been a true war. (and I'm not an FSU fan)
@@MH-0101 I didn’t pay attention to the betting culture until the CFP teams were announced. Felt that FSU deserved a spot in the playoffs due to the totality of their performance over the regular season. Whoever triumphs in the game will be the National Champs. I like the matchup. I also like that the strengths attached to Michigan were the same attached to Texas. How did that work out for the Longhorns? Thanks for your insights.
Never forget that at its core, this channel is an SEC homer channel that is disguised as impartial. It used to be called SECFans back in the day. It's also painfully obvious when the SEC gets more game previews than the other conferences combined. I didn't watch the semifinal previews, but I'm admittedly not surprised in the least to hear that they picked the SEC teams in both match ups. I'm no Michigan or Washington fan, either, so this isn't coming from a disgruntled fan taking a victory lap. The channel's analysis with the model is typically pretty quality and certainly unique, so it's a shame that it has to be presented with such a clear and obvious bias, but c'est la vie.
I agree with this. A lot of ppl overvalue the SEC as a conf, what I want to see is how much and which teams. Especially team by team. Because they might be the best team if you’re talking about the number of great teams but just top to bottom I’d have to disagree. They ignore things like their win % against the ACC and blah blah blah in years that comes up. With the 12 team we will see definitively where everyone ranks
I don't understand comments like this. The SEC has won 13 of the last 17 National Championships (18 counting this season). There's a reason people pick the SEC teams to win a lot and it's because they actually win the game.
@@davida730 edit: realized you weren’t talking to me.. sorry David …. no problem David. The SEC gets higher ranks. They get more benefit of the doubt when they lose. That puts them in better position to make the post season as a conf. That skews the results. Now, I definitely said they might have the most great teams. Great teams win games. Bama, UGA, and tOSU get 85% of the 5 star talent. 2 of those teams are in the SEC. I think the SEC as a conf is overvalued. There’s no such thing as overvaluing UGA and Bama in a historical sense. The win chips. They get all the talent. Since the conf as a whole is overvalued you get SEC teams ranked higher takin more slots in the preseason. This pushes better teams lower and sometimes completely out. I already said how just the volume skews the results but not playing the best from other confs count as well. I think the SEC was 4-6 in the regular season vs ACC this year? Do we think the ACC is better than the SEC? No. Do we think their top end is as good? No. Yet explain that result I think the take makes perfect sense. I wasn’t make a point about games won or chips won. I was making a point about perception. When we have more out of conf matchups we will have a better perception of where the confs and the teams stand. That makes perfect sense
@@davida730 I agree with what you’re saying if we are basing it solely on chips won but there’s definitely reason for sayin there is bias. Also, what do you mean by 18 counting this season? The SEC has been eliminated from the playoffs
@@JvariW The problem with inter conference match ups is it’s not apples to apples. Florida was 5-7 this year and lost to FSU, the 13-0 ACC champs. On the flip side GA Tech losing to Ole Miss and UGA doesn’t really prove anything. The playoffs is really the best indicator because the teams are at least sort of equal. Ohio State vs Missouri was decent as well. Also I said 18 because even though the title game hasn’t been played this season, the SEC can’t win it.
I think you guys overlooked the amount of uncharacteristic Michigan screw ups in this game. You talked about how alabama made mistakes and Michigan played a mature game, and that might be true in terms of composure at the end, but the special teams fiasco was entirely out of left field, and Michigan could have easily been up big if it wasn’t for multiple uncharacteristic drops and missed throws on third downs in the second quarter.
Your opening argument is bad and here's why. You claim the prediction for Alabama was more accurate than the model having Michigan by 11 in regulation. Now, if all you look at is the final score than I suppose you would be right but I look at the totality of the game and I saw a Michigan team that was clearly the better team than a flawed Alabama and the one thing that the model was basing it's prediction off of that didn't come to pass was Michigan's strength at Soecial Teams. So if you erase the special teams mistakes from Michigan's overall performance and assume they would have gone in Michigan's favor you see the model was spot on in predicting Michigan in regulation by +10 it's just that Michigan played a statistical outlier of a special teams game so in conclusion you got it wrong and you should just admit you got it wrong and move on.
Michigan made many more self-inflicted mistakes than Bama and may have won by 11 or so if both teams made an even amount of self-inflicted errors. Michigan's 2 muffed punts were completely unforced, and Bamas fumble was punched out by Michigan. Michigan missed an extra point and a field goal that they've been so consistent all year long with, and Bama didn't miss, including two from 50+. I just think it's likely if they play 10 times, a lot of these things sway towards Michigan's favor in the other 9 games.
The model said Michigan by 11 in regulation, when scores were actually level. BUT - you recall that Michigan 1) spotted Bama a TD of a muffed punt, 2) missed a field goal, and 3) muffed a snap on a XP? I.e., THE MODEL WAS EXACTLY RIGHT?
I think the model was right. The only issue I have is that Michigan always plays tight in bowl games. They don't handle the long layoff well. I think they over prepare which even Nick Saban preaches against.
The only reason to doubt Penix and Wash was their inconsistency over the season. When they play at their best, they are elite. Also, Washington is the most clutch team in the country, which leads one to expect them be at their best in the biggest game.
You guys were more wrong about the Rose Bowl than you're letting on, especially when it comes to mistakes. Michigan played its sloppiest game since the Bowling Green game back in September, yet still won with a balanced offense. JJ threw better against Alabama than any of the previous 4 games both per attempt and in raw yardage. Michigan's B game beat Alabama's A- game, when you guys thought Michigan would need their A+ game to edge out Alabama's B+ game. In those regards, you guys were wrong in your predictions. I respect that you guys acknowledge that Michigan is the better team though. If both teams play a clean game, Michigan wins this game by 10 in regulation. One thing I have to give Alabama is that McClellan ran a lot better than I thought he could. If anyone kept Alabama in this game besides semaj morgan giving them short fields, it was him.
I wouldn’t say that Michigan won by exploiting Alabamas mistakes. We just bullied them to win. Michigan made a lot more mistakes at much more critical times and still with all of that still beat them
I think what they said was true, but they omitted the important point that Michigan exploited Bama’s mistakes while Alabama largely did not exploit Michigan’s.
Can't ignore if Alabama's center could complete a shotgun snap then they very well might win this game. Plus Michigan getting incredibly lucky in recovering the muffed punt at the 1-yard line. Although any time teams are evenly matched you can point to one play, or one injury.
@@davida730 well too f’in bad. Saban’s had years to get a center. Can’t use that excuse plain and simple. “If Michigan had a special teams they would’ve won big”
Michigan did dominate the line. Alabama's run yardage was because of one 30 yard run and a bunch of Milroe scrambles. Take out those two things and they ran for 98 yards on 22 carries for 4.45 ypc. Michigan dominated the line on both side. You can't just look at rushing stats and make that claim. Anybody watching the game knows MI dominated the line. If you are going to look at a stat look at sacks and tfls. Michigan had 6 sacks and 10 tfls. Bama had 1 sack and 1 TFL. But somehow michigan didn't dominate the line lol
@@CollegeFootballNerds If we are talking about overall LINE dominance why wouldn't sacks be taken into account. It's hard to take into account a scramble because that could just be because of Milroe being Milroe and nothing to do with the line. And actually a scramble most likely means the pocket broke down which would be the lines fault. And a sack is most likely directly correlated to line play. Bama's backs running for 6 ypc is a good argument for sure and again you take out that 1 30 yard run and it drops them to 4.4 ypc (which honestly is still respectable). But I think eye test tells you that Michigan's line dominated most of the game. That last play on the goal line Latham got absolutely destroyed and it blew up the play.
You could easily see UW was better based on the schedule. The PAC12 was way deeper than the Big12. Oregon was a way better team than TX and we best them twice. Yall slept on UW cuz you didn't watch them enough. Do your research before you pick the championship game. The big12 was weak and we all know it
Both games went exactly as I expected. Washington making it look easy with a 10-14 point lead and then leaving it tight at the end. The Michigan game was just typical Michigan football this year. If Washington keeps Penix clean, nobody is beating them. That receiving corps is one of the best I've ever seen. Three NFL wideouts make for matchup problems all over the board. I *think* Michigan beats Washington, but if Penix gets to stay on schedule then it's going to be a problem.
Michigan with their cheating scheme states they are second half team with adjustments. This was a long way from typical Michigan this year. Unless it was typical to get skull drug at the LOS for a long stretch in the second half.
My exact same thought. I’m a Mich fan. I wanted Wash over TX because I think TX would give us too much of an all around game. We’d have to play our best game everywhere. While to beat Penix we have to get in the backfield. If we can both him then that’s it.. it’s over. I’d take our guys on some short throws and limited intermediate but if he has 3-4 deep throws I think that could be the game. Our offense is good enough we can score on them but not to score WITH them. Excited to see it. LOVED the games
lol, Washington looks really good, they clearly had an underrated defense and running game. I think Michigan will win, but Washington is a better team than Texas and it showed.
The first 5-6 minute tirade is a long winded euphemism for “we’ve been wrong about Michigan in their two biggest games and we don’t feel the least bit bad about it. As a matter of fact, here’s our rationalization.” Regardless of my insincere ball busting, you guys have done a good job all year on the channel.
"If Corum slips on 4 and 2".... if Michigan doesn't muff a punt and give Bama a short field for the first touchdown, doesn't botch an extra point, and doesn't miss a field goal Michigan very well could have won by 11 in regulation. 6 sacks and 10 tfls is 100 manhandling an offensive line
Everyone keeps sayin 6 sacks. I watched the game and counted at least 7 maybe 8. The announcers even counted the 7. I’m definitely gonna take a look at that
Michigan played uncharacteristicly sloppy. 2 dropped punts, missed FG, botched XP and still won. I will say bamas inability to execute a QB snap was baffling. But Michigans Dline dominated and Michigan Oline held up
these guys barely watch the games lmao. almost nothing they said about michigan was accurate, such as when they said "michigan doesn't disappear for quarters a time" but thats exactly what the offense did until the last drive in the 4th. also talking about how michigan doesn't play sloppy, which normally we dont, but we had 2 muffed punts a missed XP and a missed FG. what are these guys talking about?
Most of UM sacks were with 4 rushers and sometime 5. You need to go rematch the game. UM brought pressure from one side and dropped the DE into coverage. Thatnis called ZONE BLITZING. It is amazing to me that people give you guys credibility when you talk about things you simply do not understand or see.
Yall picked Texas, because Texas beat Alabama.... No other reason. What did i tell u on that video, Texas played one good QB all year, and its the only game they lost. They got shredded by Oklahoma.....And they'd get shredded by Washington
I actually think that subconsciously this is exactly why they picked Texas. I straight up told them that was the most incorrect pick they ever made. Washington was Oklahoma on steroids.
You're just making up spit now.... Jus say u were wrong.... what if corum slipped???? What Auburn didn't give up 4th & 31... u can't do that. U picked Alabama to win by 3 and seven. Yall were 10 and 14pts off. Ur model was only 3pts off. Yall r so disingenuous to get on here and act like u barely missed ur picks. Vegas wouldn't exist if they missed their picks by 10-14 pts per game. Vegas power rankings had Michigan by 8........
@PurpleHazeVanNederlands Michigan is 39-3 this decade, not counting Covid year, Not bad for a team that recruits at the level of Texas Tech... Michigan only has 2) 5 star players compared to Alabama at 36-6 with 25+ 5 star players.. You can pick and choose the history you want, but the facts are the facts. Michigan is at an elite level, being able to develop 3 star players and beating a team that has the #1 recruiting class year in and year out... Imagine what Michigan and Harbaugh would do with Alabama type of talent... You'll have no chance
Y'all acting like Michigan didn't muff 2 punts and lost one that led to a TD.. Missed 2 FG.. Had very unmichigan personal foals. Without huge Michigan mistakes in the first half Michigan would've been leading by double digits
SEC guys just didn't want to give the Michigan D any respect. The model was right - Michigan spotted Bama a TD with a very uncharacteristic dropped punt. You guys also made the mistake of thinking Milroe was way better than he has shown all year. He's an AVERAGE college QB. He's no Michael Penix.
Alabama was in that game because Michigan had it's worst Special Teams performance in 3 years. I don't know if you are tying to come off like Alabama beat themselves but it sure sounds like it.
Not surprised, haven’t given Washington credit all year. Didn’t give props to Penix, the O line, etc. Just talked about how Texas messed up. Here’s some quick analysis: UW was just the better team, and never trailed the whole game. The only reason Texas had a chance at winning was DJ getting hurt.
The Pac-12 is the best conference this year. Pac-12 QB’s are better than the Big 12, Mildew, and most definitely the awful Big 10. Pac-12 defenses aren’t as bad as people say because the offenses are so good. Bad offense way overinflates Big 10 defenses and Texas also wasn’t as good as given credit for. Teams that have the best players win titles and the best players wear purple and gold.
Tough to see Texas lose as a Texas fan, but I’m glad that Washington fans have generally been gracious about it. Penix had an A+ game, and I hope he has a nice pro career.
Guys, explaining the result of this game as Alabama making mistakes as the reason they lost is flat out silly. Michigan forced Alabama to make mistakes - mainly by dominating on pass rush and having a better scheme. Michigan shot themselves in the foot and made MORE mistakes than Bama, and still won. Lastly, look at which team’s mistakes are outliers relative to the mean… I’ll wait… it’s Michigan’s. Meaning, Michigan played worse than they had all year and still beat Bama. Ya’ll need to open your eyes to Jim Harbaugh as a coach, you also failed to mention how he significantly out-coached Bama.
6:35 i hope y’all mention that UM made more mistakes than Bama. And still won. They lost the field position battle, missed kicks, messed up trick plays.
Alabama absolutely did not rush for 220 yards. Lol. And UMs D line DID DOMINATE ALABAMA. 6 sacks and 10 TFLs. To say otherwise is idiotic and a false narrative. But nice try, trying to slip 220 yards rushing in. Lmao
you guys miss Michigan A LOT. you have picked OSU the last 3 years both of you. Understand your point about if its close you made a good pick. OK, however this result I would think is at the lesser end of performance for Michigan. in other words the YPA and YPP for Michigan that actually happened, the win expectancy for Michigan would be higher.
Michigan runs for 300 yards. Michigan by 17. By the way, your model was correct, Michigan spotted Alabama 11 points, Muffed Punt, missed FG, Missed PAT
I think your Alabama pick was fair. You picked a close game and it was. Although I think Michigan was solidly the better team and played extremely tight which almost cost them the game. I know you might say Alabama made mistakes too but that is kind of who they are in every game. I don't agree that Texas could have ever beat Washington. To be honest Washington felt at least two touchdowns better than Texas the whole game. I would say Michigan is 7 to 10 points better than Alabama on any given week. What I am more interest in knowing is whether Ohio State at full strength beats Alabama. Super close but I think Ohio State would have won. Basically what I'm saying is, Ohio State was really the fourth best team.
The backpedaling cope is unreal after such an ignorant prediction. You said the SEC was just a different conference because they had more explosive plays and JJ McCarthy’s success was based on cheating. Reality is Michigan had the better: Head coach, Assistants, Lineman, QB, and Team. Only special teams kept it close. 2x 5 stars just beat 18x 5 stars. Saban got outclassed in every way possible, lowest yardage total in 7 years or something.
I find it interesting than in your Texas vs Washington recap you seemed to be saying, "We were right, but Penix broke the model". You mentioned 10-1 sacks/TFL's in the MIchigan/Alabama game, but you didn't even mention the Washington 7-3 advantage by Washington in Sacks/TFL's. Washington had 311 yards of offense in the 1st half and was up 14-7 before the muffed punt and then had the 4th down fail. That was essentially 2 1st have turnovers. Texas was lucky be 21-21 at half. Then Washington came out and dominated in the 3rd quarter with 3 scores to go up 13. It could have been more. Pointing to rushing stats etc when Texas gpt 256 yards of offense in the 4th quarter when they had only 498 total and 232 in the first 3 quarters. If it had have been Washington getting 256 yards in the 4th quarter you'd have said, "Texas dominated and Washington couldn't do anything until garbage time"... I appreciate that it is very difficult to compare teams from the Pac 12, Big 10. SEC and Big 12, because they don't play the same teams. When the stats say Michigan is the best defense in the country it's because they were the best defense statistically against East Carolina, UNLV, Bowling Green, Rutgers, Nebraska, Minnesota, Indiana, Michigan St., Purdue, Penn State, Maryland, Ohio State and Iowa. Whatever their pass defense numbers were with that schedule what would they have been playing a Pac 12 schedule? Probably not nearly as good. Comparing teams from different conferences based on stats alone is misleading. None of the models take into account "clutch factor" or "choke factor" or who has a chip on their shoulder or even injuries for each team at each position for each game tor them and their opponent. Some take into account that one team calls off the dogs and benches their starting QB in a blowout, but do they take into account how good the 2nd string QB is...? Is there a drop off..? What about teams decisions to take away the run vs the pass? Does the model look at running 6 in the box vs 8 in the box? No. It doesn't. These models are just high level stats. Not enough comparative data and not enough taking the situations into account. Coaches don't call plays based upon how the "models" will judge the result. Washington ran the ball 31 times. They knew what they were up against, but they decided it was worth trying. When Clemson's Deshawn Watson didn't run the ball at all against Alabama they made the decision not to at all. The Alabama defense looked great according to the model on run defense, but it's not taking everything into context. A lot of it is based on 5 and 4 stars out of high school, but we've all seen plenty of busts once kids get into college, because comparing kids in high school is even tougher than in college. In the end the games are played on the field not on paper and comparing stats in the NBA or MLB makes some sense, but in college football... not so much. Looking forward to Washington vs Michigan. I'm going with Michigan even though Michigan was built to stop Ohio State, which is kinda who Washington is...
Clicked on this for some analysis not a long drawn out excuse session for why you and the model were wrong. So clear you haven’t actually watched much of penix play. Other than the month where he was hurt with a rib injury which caused him to float a lot of balls and the flu game. He has all the pitches a Penix’s calling card is his accuracy down field. I’ve watched every one of his WA games. Only QB since Mahomes to have back to back 4500 yard seasons. And he was in an air raid system and Penix is not.
I love this channel but my God the opening of this video is excruciating. Alabama lost the game because Michigan was the better team, period. The only reason it was close at the half was because of the muffed punt, and Bama came out in the 3rd quarter and played great but then Michigan just being better took over the game in the 4th. This game was only close because Michigan couldn't keep shooting themselves in the foot on special teams.
Milroe is a tremendous athlete but an extremely limited QB. It's pretty hard to blame the OC when the QB can't make pre snap reads or adjustments, never hits the hot routes or short to intermediate throws. It's boom or bust. Nothing anywhere consistent or efficient.
As someone who called both games and has gotten everything else wrong this year I’d like to take a victory lap. 😂😂 love this channel and I hope you pick Washington in the championship analysis #GoBlue
@@evanrussell4211 WASH - Texas wasn't even remotely close as the score looked Every bounce went Texas way and they still lost Washington is so good and Im picking UM but Wash winning would not be shocking Mccarthy is a good QB but Penix is a beast, if they switched QBs Id have UM by 3 scores
Michigan controlled both lines for a good part of the game. Uncharacteristic mistakes on special teams were the reason Bama was within 2 TDs. The D was overwhelming and Milroe looked like he didn’t know how to read the coverages.
It's lovely to hear a couple southern SEC homers admit they were wrong about PAC 12 conference strength. Washington is strong in all aspects. Respect the Northwest!!! lololol It's all good.
6:00 what is it with this narrative? So many reactions to this game just sum up to "Alabama made a lot of mistakes- that is the main reason they lost." Michigan had PLENTY of mistakes too and it made the game way closer than it needed to be. Michigan missed an extra point, a missed field goal, TWO muffed punts- one which essentially handed Alabama a touchdown by field position, along with a few missed plays like two drops and a flubbed flea-flicker. If you change ANY of those moments- Alabama doesn't even make it to overtime. Both teams made mistakes. Michigan was the only team to capitalize on the. Alabama didn't lose the game, Michigan won it.
Did you watch the video? Because you were, at most, 11 minutes into this 38 minute video when you commented this. We actually note that we think Michigan probably beats Alabama 7 out of 10 times, and it was all due to their consistency.
I don’t understand how you can talk about Alabama’s mistakes without any mention of Michigan’s absolutely horrific special teams. Your model was closer than y’all were. Michigan wins by 7-10 with an average special teams performance. Alabama didn’t make a bunch of mistakes. They just got outplayed and thoroughly outcoached.
I won my parlay (Mich -1.5 + the Over) and my parlay (Wash MoneyLine + the Over) Also put those same bets into a 4 leg parlay and obviously won that (odds were +1378) Let's freaking go !
@@Ultra-BLV thanks. I bet the future bet Mich beats Wash in the Championship (+550) and Mich wins the Championship (+200). Expect a great game tho. Also expecting Mich rushing for over 250+ yds but can't bet it (not allowed in Tenn)
My takeaway from the rose bowl is Bama looked clueless on defense. I haven’t seen a defense look this clueless since Clemson couldn’t find OJ Howard big ass running down the field.
Coaches can call plays but cant make players execute! Bamas oline, qb, and inside linebackers are why Bama lost! Bad snaps, poor blocking, and very poor qb play on offense! Not picking up backs out of the backfield and releasing tightends killed the linebackers and safeties!! Bama flat out lost this game because of not executing and not reaching inside for physicality!! When someone hits you in the mouth you either get mad and knock them out or you back down! Bama fid not stand up!!! I believe Bama thought this was gonna be a cakewalk and got busted in the mouth and let Michigan overwhelm them! Embarrassing!! If Milroe is QB next season the same outcome will come! He has all the physical skills in the world but cant read defenses and cant find open receivers! The only times he found wide open receivers this past season were when they were schemed as the play! He has a one track mind and cant go thru all his reads! He stares down where he initially wants to go and misses wide open receivers and checkdowns constantly!
I think your model was closer than you. Michigan made mistakes your model would have never seen coming because they never made those mistakes. Take away the muffed punt, an extra point and a field goal that's closer to 11. Michigan had dead plays while trying to get fancy and so on. I think your model was spot on play that game over.
Absolutely. Michigan played their sloppiest game of the season, outside of Bowling Green of course, which is pretty hilarious. Michigan, if they had played a cleaner game, wins in regulation and likely by a TD or more.
I feel like they watched a different game lol. He said MI jumped on every Alabama mistake. We didn't even get points on a fumble in their territory, didn't get the touched punt and missed two extra sacks when they had a hand on the qb. MI could have won by much more lol. So weird
Lol yeah. I would respect a “Yeah, we blew it. Sometimes things happen.” Nobody knows what’s going to happen and it’s ok to be wrong. The constant “but here’s why we were really right” redirections are tiresome.
It's so frickin disingenuous when they do that. As a content creator, u have to realize that ur gonna miss some of ur picks. But that's when u come back and u tell ur audience that u were wrong. There is nothing wrong with missing a pick. But to come online with we were wrong, but we were kinda right when we were wrong is jus ridiculous
@@Struggle_Streaming_With_BK Yeah, Vegas is right, what, a little over 50% of the time in their lines? Not really sure, but it isn’t 100%. Nobody expects perfection. But we expect honesty.
@B_Dog_33 Vegas isn't off 10-14 points that often. Sure they miss.... that's why they always get 20pct of the pot of rip. But there would be no Vegas if they missed the spreads by 10 to 14 pts......
I thought Bama made good adjustments in the second half by bringing back the H back motions that worked so well against UGA. 45 was so impactful, but it felt like the self imposed mistakes limited the ability to stay ahead of the chains and they went away from it
The key was Jalen McMillan. He hadn't played consistently between the Michigan State game (3rd of the year) and the PAC-12 Championship. Mix him in with the other 2 elite receivers in Odunze and Polk, and Washington becomes nearly unstoppable on offense.
Yall stop!!! Mich was the better team!!! Every time the sec lose it’s because they didn’t play their game!!! No Mich made them play that way!!! Yall was wrong just own it!!
Always appreciate the hard work and no hard feelings 😊. You guys are more reasonable than most of the media making picks. Just please pick Washington in your final prediction 🎉
Once again, I love for these guys to continue doing what they’re doing, but it is really funny how they perceive history. Clemson basically just gave up on rushing against Alabama in 2016. Alabama rushing yards 138 on 46 attempts Clemson 145 on 38 attempts.
It was mainly the offensive playcalling. Running only deep passes into a blitz and getting sacked 7ish times. No short passing game beyond the line, no outlets for blitz, curls etc. All that was open too.
I'm getting really tired of seeing Alabama routinely out-coached and out-schemed, especially in big games. Tommy Rees looked like a complete offensive neophyte in comparison to Sherrone Moore. Alabama seemingly hasn't been able to get "easy yards" since 2020, so it wasn't just a Bill O'Brien issue, as we hoped most of last year. I think we read too much into Milroe's performances against LSU and Kentucky, and his big pass to beat Auburn. His limitations as a passer made it almost impossible to sustain drives in this game.
At 24:05 you say Texas was a top 20 passing defense in your model. I don’t think that’s true I looked and it seems like they’re closer to #100. Can you let me know what I’m doing wrong here?
I said from the beginning of the season a Big Ten team was winning it all of course as a Fan I was hoping Ohio State ,I didn't think there was an Outstanding SEC team this year . Alabama reminds me of the Blake Sims year when OSU broke through.
Texas guy here: (1) like the comp to Watson. Penix was absolutely lights out-insane accuracy and cool as a cucumber. The way he would reset his feet after moving to elude A gap pressure was elite. Tip your cap. (2) Tend to disagree about the importance of Penix running. They didn’t need that. I don’t think it opened up the passing game because he was hitting that anyway. In fact, I think UW’s running the ball was a complete waste. Texas was able to come back only because UW ran on their last drive to kill clock. If they had just continued throwing downfield the whole game this is a blowout. (3) for all of Penix’s amazing play, Texas had four shots from the 12 to win the game. If Ewers sits Mitchell down at the pylon-in the exact same way he did against Ok State in the Big 12 title game-Texas pulls off the insane comeback. (4) crazy as it is to say, replay this ten times and I think Texas wins at least six and for the reasons you gave. Penix was playing out of his mind in a way not reflective of his record. It seems unlikely that he could do that repeatedly. However, the Texas run game (minus fumbles) was almost automatic. If Texas just kept running, even with Penix on fire, they have a good chance. (5) last thought: give Penix his props if he plays like this against Michigan I pick UW. However, I do think UM gets edge pressure on Penix and it’s just really unlikely he can do that. If he can, though, he needs to go Top 5 in the draft.
I would implore you to watch Washington without Jalen McMillan and with him. I think if you replay this game 10 times, Washington wins all 10 and probably by more than they did this game.
