Michigan vs Washington - CFP National Championship Preview & Prediction 

@college football nerds Before I watch, as a Michigan fan, Ijust want to say, I pray you two picked Washington.

Honest confession from an UGA fan and SEC homer here… I’m so excited for this game! This football season felt exciting and fresh and both teams would be a deserving champion. Congrats to both teams.

Klatt made an excellent observation, Michigan built its defense to stop OSU when they were throwing the ball all over the field with an star NFL QB (stroud) and star nfl receivers (olave, Wilson, njigba, Harrison) they are uniquely suited to defend this Washington team, where as Texas was terrible against the pass all year, I’ll give Pennix his respect, he’s awesome, Michigan on the Moneyline.

34-13, the model has been on fire for Michigan this year. What a season.

Michigan Fans on their LANK this week: "Let a Nerd Know."

I underestimated Michigan against Bama and was proven wrong, I however felt Washington's receivers would overwhelm Texas's defensive backs and that bared out. Washington's receiver core is NFL good and I don't know if any team is stopping them one on one which is why I think the key for Michigan is how much pressure can they get on Penix, give him time and Washington is your national champion. However Michigan's pass defense isn't a slouch either so they won't get torched like Texas which is why I think Michigan's ability to be balanced is the edge in this game, they can run well enough and McCarthy can make plays when called upon. I'll be damned if Michigan wins and I don't pick them Michigan wins 30-24

And treyveon Henderson did not run for 6 yards per carry he had like 19 Carries for 60 yards that’s like 3.1 ypc

I like the point about Michigan’s offense scheming vs winning 1v1. But I think JJ and Corum will make plays to move the sticks often. Michigan 35-23.

10:30 Yes, there is. 13 drives by Washington. 13 points allowed by UM. 1 freaking point per drive.

If Penix gets hot, or if Mich runs well, I could see this game getting lopsided going either way.

I’m so excited for this game. For 10 years, offense wins championships in CFB. But I think that might change back to defense with the new clock rules. Washington has the best offense in the country going up against possibly the best defense I have ever seen.

lol! Happy New Year, boys! I have watched ALL your videos this season. A very thorough and evenhanded job. You guys spend time trying to weed out your own biases, which is why I promote your channel to family, friends and colleagues. Should be another great game. Go Blue! #jobnotdoneyet

History favors Michigan in that no football team - college or pro - has won it all with a mediocre defense. Ever. No matter how good their offense. It will be too easy for Michigan to run the ball and maintain possession. I think the model is pretty spot on. 31 -21 Michigan.

I love the show guys!! However, Henderson ran for 3.2 ypc vs Michigan… not 6.8 lol.

Thanks for a great season guys!!

I agree that Penix was lights out last game, and doing that again, twice in a row, could be too difficult.

Michigan fan here and I have watched all your videos (not just big games). I just think other Michigan fans are not used to the heavy criticism that you guys offer when teams are elite. If other fans watched all your videos they would take the criticism as a complement because that means you think out team is elite. Love all you guys do! 38-27 Michigan, I think the play a near flawless game and cap off a perfect season!

Out of the Top 50 offenses per ESPN stats, the Washington D has played #2, #9, #12, #20, #26, #35, and #36. Michigan's D has played one - #48. Defensive stats are a bit misleading for this game. Fun fact, out of every team in the country, the Huskies have defended the most pass attempts, 521, and given up 6.6 yards per completion. The next closest team in the country is Oregon with 468. By comparison, Michigan has defended 340 pass attempts and has a 5.8 yard per completion avg. GO DAWGS!

I agree with all of y’all takes, if I’m Washington I worry about Michigan running the ball on them and Washington not being able to stop it.

I think Jesse Minter tries to do the Belichick thing by taking away the main weapon from the opponent. So they focused on Allar, Harrison and Milroe. So that's why the RBs did better in those games. We'll see if they can contain Penix. Also, Michigan will not abandon the run the way Texas did, especially if it's doing well. They are much more patient.

I’m so torn on this game at first I thought Michigan but now am leaning Washington. I know for a fact that the real Washington is the team that played Texas. But I know how good Michigans defense is and I think the new clock rules will help keep the defense fresher. Michigans defense also goes so so deep at every position.

Thing is even though Penix played out of his mind, Texas still had a chance to win at end.

Looking forward to this game. Should be a battle of 2 strategies!

I feel like Michigan will shorten the game by running the ball effectively. Plus, Michigan's defense was built for this type of offense because of the historical ohio offenses of the last 3 years. That Ravens style defense was created for Mahomes, Roger's, etc. Running qbs that can throw. This will be a good game.

I know Washington in some ways is being unfairly compared to 2019 lsu but I think in hindsight we’ll look back at the pac 12 title game like bama lsu in November 2019. Washington heard all season after they beat Oregon it was a fluke and Oregon lost for game. They controlled the pac 12 championship game and I think they are taking off like 2019 lsu after beating Alabama.

I'm a Wolverine, and I like your thoughts on games whether you pick Michigan to win or to lose. It's the thought and explanations that I like. I'm not expecting your prediction to be causal upon future events.

I think it’s going to be a battle between Washington’s OL and Michigan’s DL. If Penix has time to throw they can get 40 points and I don’t know that Michigan can keep up. I think Michigan wins 38-34 I think both defenses are going to break late but Michigan is able to sit on the ball and kill the clock. I’m so excited for this game though!

Michigan is NOT a blitz heavy scheme lol. That was only vs Bama. They defended w/ light boxes most of the year in prep for OSU passing game. That’s why they’ve given up rushing yardage (esp on 1st down)

Love the content, but the guy who was discussing how his model assesses UW's offense talked sll around the main point but dudn't get to it. The reason that UW's offense was finally able to replicate against Texas what they had done in September is because Jaylen McMillan was finally playing at a 100%. When #11 is at 100% (5 games out of 14) UW's offense was never beliw the 95th percentile in production (that includes all college football games this year.

Never forget that these guys actually told themselves (and their audience) that Michigan was responsible for Hendon Hooker tearing his ACL.

“you can’t just run the ball and play defense” well we just won the natty and beat SEC on the way 🥱🥱🥱🥱 Big Ten on top SEC nerds

Look, Penix is getting a TON of love for his performance against Texas. I get it, he was phenomenal, but he had multiple stinker games this season. 5 games sub 60% completion (one sub 50%). 2 games held with no TD passes. NONE of those games against a truly elite pass defense. If he's able to repeat anything like his Texas performance against Michigan it would be incredible.

Penn state leading rusher was 4.4 and Treveyon Henderson ran it for 3.2 ypc. Not necessarily well. I think Washington could maybe be able to run for around 3-4 ypc but Michigan won’t be giving up anything major on the ground.

Congrats to the Washington fans who are guaranteed to win now

38-27 blue. Though washington does scare me as an underdog. We need to play our A game

Jim grounds and pounds the ball in classic Jim fashion much like Washington/Michigan 2 years ago. 35-24 Michigan

It is kinda weird that Michigan skated through their season and only played ONE team with a Top 50 offense all year. (Ohio State #47). UW beat the #2 offense (Oregon) twice and the #9 offense (Texas). If Michigan played Texas and Oregon (twice) and played the Pac 12 slate - with the best QB's and best offenses in the nation - no way would Michigan be #1 in the nation on defense. Not saying Michigan's D is not good - just that they have NEVER played an offense that has tested them. Even Alabama is not in the Top 50 in offense. And UW's D might be better than it appears - they faced the best QB"s and offenses in the nation and were heavily injured in their last 8 regular season games.

I'm not going to pick but I'm excited for the game!

As a Michigan fan, I watched most if not all your Michigan videos. I was confident against the Buckeyes and Alabama, though Bama worried me more. I am confident the Michigan offense will do well vs. Washington which leaves Penix vs. the Michigan D. I have great respect for Penix but feel like Michigan has played against this type of opponent before in prior year Buckeyes. Michigan will keep the ball in front of them and play great red zone D limiting Washington to a few more field goals than usual which will be the difference in the game. Michigan 31 Washington 20.

I find it very hard for you to say that Bama got out schemed on defense when they only gave up 20 in regulation...

First off I'm a michigan fan, and I love your guy's model. It's been surprisingly accurate for a lot of michigan games. Regarding Who will win? There's going to be 9 or 10 Possessions in this game. I believe Washington will have a hard time stopping Corum and JJ's legs. they'll both be able to move the sticks and at the minimum Michigan will have a great field position game going their way, and the likely scenario is that michigan scores at least a field goal on 7 of those 10 drives (that's a lot, I know, but with Corum playing like he is I can't see it happening any other way). I imagine 2 or 3 of those drives will TD's, so we're looking at michigan scoring between 29 and 33 points. That means Washington will need to find a way to score on over half their drives, and they haven't been able to do that. Penix's throwing is absolutely beautiful and amazing to watch, yet even with his best performance of the year against Texas he still missed 9 throws (76% total) which is amazing, but if those throws are untimeley that's 3 drives lost. They also got saved by their run a few times, and I don't think Johson is going to be playing and he's a great runner, so they're going to be down that aspect of their game. washington also averages a turnover a game (and they had that too against Texas) and michigan forces just over 1 a game as well I believe, so that's another drive dead. to summarize, michigan scores 29-33 points, and they manage to hold washington to between 21 and 28 points depending on turnovers. I wouldn't be surprised if Penix can dominate and play like he did against texas. If he does then Washington has a good chance at beating michigan but that's ofc only if they can stop michigan from moving the chains. Gonna be a good game imo

It’s about time. 👏

FOOLS...WA loves those pics. Thanks.

The week to prepare favors Michigan because of what Michigan is based around beating, Michigan was built to beat osu in 2021, osu was cj stroud olave Wilson and jsn. It’s the same team with a different logo

You know what? I think this Michigan defense has one weakness. The second corner Josh Wallace isn't good enough to defend Washingtons receivers. I think Washington wins.

Michigan isn't blitz heavy. Against psu and osu we sat back and played coverage allowing rbs to run but knowing they won't win the game like that given that Michigan is a elite Redzone defense I'm pretty sure they will try the same approach

I got no idea in this game. Will be rooting for Washington but won't be shocked if the other guys win either. Just hope it's entertaining.

I think Michigan’s secondary is exponentially better than Texas’ secondary. Will Johnson, Mike Sainristil, Rod Moore, etc. are one of the best secondaries in the country. Washington to me is very similar to the 2021/2022 OSU teams that Michigan built their roster to beat. I’ll go Michigan 38, Washington 27

These people want Michigan to lose so bad😂

Caleb had coaches general game planning both Alabama and Michigan during the break. It didn't take Washington a month to plan for Texas😂. Almost the same team as last year with less injuries. The game was almost identical. They have more than a weeks preparation for this game. Caleb and his crew have many championships and understands tournament preparation. His record at all levels speaks for itself.

I did watch all your videos and I think a lot of us confused your picks with Josh Pate who picked all three of those teams against Michigan. I was still surprised you picked OSU over us lol

stroud had 380 yrds and 2 tds and lost by 18. hero ball doesn't work on M. we built for this specifically. ask marvin harrison, or JSN, garret wilson, keon coleman, etc etc. we coming for penix head. time to feast

Go blue baby!! National champions!!

I think something interesting that is getting overlooked is that wash’s defense ranks most closely to msu in terms of who michigan has played and they’re worse. JJ didn’t have to play the 4q in that game. Obviously this will be different bc penix can put up points, but whose to say this won’t be the best scoring offense version of michigan we’ve seen all year.

The reason Michigan's defensive YPC is high to those backs is bc they keep a light box on early downs. They trust 6 to defend the run.

I got Michigan lower score than people think 27-21 it feels like to me that Michigan going to control the clock with the run and Washington has had a hard time stopping the run.

I think Michigan will wear out Washington at the line of scrimmage and control the clock on O. Just need to convert more 3rd downs than they did against Bama and not implode on special teams (which they shouldn't). I respect both teams but think Michigan can compete on both sides of the ball better and Washington won't be able to stop the run game of Michigan (and that includes McCarthy using his legs in crucial situations).

Michigan fan here: excellent breakdown guys. Sorry my fan base is a cult. I will say your Rose Bowl breakdown had me a bit miffed...but hey I'm human. Go Blue!

I think Michigan is the better team, but its close. Washington got some magic going on. Washington 27 - 24.

Michigan 31 Washington 17

Part of the reason why Texas was hesitant on running frequently is because of the turnovers. Both backs fumbled the ball

This game could either be a blowout or right down to the wire. If Washington can run the ball well, I think they’re in a good spot to win. Give me Michigan 27-35 Washington

Washington not throwing for 400 pass yards vs a better secondary. Texas’ secondary is very mid and it showed. I expect this game to be like the Michigan vs OSU in 2021 except Michigans secondary has gotten betters since then. Penix gonna make plays but Washington’s defense won’t be able to stop Michigans run game which will allow them to bleed the clock and sustain drives. I got Michigan 41 Washington 27

What favors washington is that Texas is more like Michigan that Alabama is to Washington. The problem is that Washington's defense cannot stop the run, and thats what Michigan wants to do. I see it as a Michigan win around what they have predicted. Michigan goes for 250 on the ground. Penix has a good game (not bad, just not 430 yards) and keeps the game close

Food for thought. 14 Big 10 teams played 182 regular season games. Only 3 were against the PAC 12. All 3 losses to Washington, Washington State and Colorado. I’m not saying that somehow means the PAC 12 is better than the Big 10. Far too small a sample size. However it does beg the question, “Would Michigan or Washington’s stats be the same if they played in the same conference or played the same opponents?”. No way to know, so when someone says one team can’t do XYZ remember these stats are against completely different opponents. Should be interesting on Monday.

The reason that michigan will give up some rushing yards em is because they only have 1 Lb in the box against elite teams so they can play two high safety look. Additionally I’m not sure what they are talking avmbout blitz heavy scheme, rarely does michigan blitz, 6 times in the first half against bama.

I didn't watch the video because I was done giving you guys clicks after your "analysis" before the Ohio game, but I just want you to know that I think it's really funny you keep pretending Michigan fans are "big mad" at you because you picked against us a couple times, and not because you literally said "sign stealing" is why JJ McCarthy was struggling to roll away from pressure with an injured ankle and also that Connor Stalions literally caused Hendron Hooker's non-contact injury because you heard a rumor on a South Carolina fan forum. You made this bed, get used to lying in it because #Blue does not forgive, or forget.

No recap for the natty?

Thinking Michigan takes this one in an exciting 38-27 affair. I think the Wolverines defense is too good for them to get into a hole against Washington the way that Oregon and Texas got into and were forced out of their gameplan.

Good information guys. Michigan 💵🍻

Go Blue!

Michigan 37 Washington 27

Washington - 37 Michigan - 34 Go Dawgs! Sic Em!

Your theory when Michigan has a month to prepare they play "BETTER" is inaccurate. Every year the wolverines crap the bed in that bowl game. They honestly tried crapping the bed again. Fortunately there was enough experience and talent on this team to overcome the mistakes made. Just saying.

34 Washington - 32 Michigan. If anything I got the Over. Penix game vs Texas isn't a fluke, that's who he is as a QB and I think Washington offense scales vs elite defenses.

Pointing out that you can run on Michigan is playing into their plans for shortening the game. It’s like letting bad 3point shooters open shots and defending the lane.

Oh great. You've jinxed us. Thanks...

Michigan's defense will likely play a similar scheme to the one they played against Ohio State. 2 safeties high, Will Johnson shadowing Rome Odunze like he did Marvin Harrison Jr. I do think Rome Odunze will be a bigger challenge as he is similar in talent, maybe slightly less, but has that dog in him to fight for every ball. Wallace and Sanristil will no doubt be busy as well with Polk and McMillan. Westover looks every bit as dangerous as Colston Loveland. Washington will test every level of this Michigan defense so we need to have our A Game ready. Washington's O-Line is elite, and Penix can avoid pressure well but I think if we stop their run game and can focus on the deep ball it should decide the game. I'm thinking 31-27 with Michigan doing everything to slow the game down to keep Penix from getting fully in rhythm and keeping the number of possessions lower. I wouldn't be surprised if they win, as they've been my favorite team to take Moneyline on when they aren't favored. As a Michigan fan I'm even considering taking them for the bet to hedge my feelings if Michigan loses lol.

CFNerd model wasn't too bad in its prediction.

I thought Washington would beat Oregon twice and that people are emoting too much. This comes down to QB play which is decision making and ball placement including under pressure. Just think, if Penix makes a bad choice and stays at Indiana, Tom Allen would probably still be "stuck" there and cursed for a few more seasons. Here is what I am not sure about. Washington's defense is more physical than they get credit with 2 wins against Oregon and then Texas. In a way, I am a Blake Corum fan, for his abilities and heart. He is nearly perfect for the Michigan scheme. In another way, I hope they stuff him in a trash can. But I don't know that they can.

1 month prep gives Washington a better chances 1 week prep gives Michigan a better chance (because of the matchup and Michigans defense has prepped for this style of defense all year and some of them for 3 years!)

Someone mentioned it, game will be won on the lines.

Totally wrong about the 1 week of prep-it advantages Michigan because Michigan can basically plug and play their OSU defense.

GO BLUE!!!

Yea keeping against us and being wrong. We thrive on the hate from you and everyone else. The nerds have lost all credibility along with the other writers and Podcasters

If Washington plays the same quick pass-based game that they did against Texas, I think they will do well.

Washington can bring 1 extra guy into the box to stop the run. Michigan can pass but Washington has played several teams that pass the ball much better.

MI thats a complete ball club. WA has got a good passing attack but I don't see MI getting rattled. MI wins. Go blue

How many repeat performances do you need? Penex has been doing that all year. It comes down to can Washington handle Michigan blitz. Harbaugh is good but predictable and is going to take care of his ego first and I expect him to leave.

I'll take Washington 42 Michigan 38. I keep thinking about the 2022 TCU Michigan game.

Corum, Edwards and Mullins run for 300 yards. Michigan by 14

My brain says Michigan but my gut says Washington 30-27. They just have a way of winning these close games all year, and if they keep it close i think they pull it off. But Michigan shutting them down would not shock me either

I would prefer Washington win but gut feeling is Michigan wins by 10.

What’s our standard deviation here boys? 50%?

Michigan's Secondary is loaded just as much as there D line is ..................expect a long day for Penix and those wr's ...Johnson not being healthy is really the biggest concern for Washington cause he was there X factor all season long no run game equals BLOW OUT Win for Michigan . GO BLUE

The abysmal PAC 12 defenses gives the illusion that Washington is better than they really are. Look how many close games they had this year and that's only because they had Dillon. With him injured though now they're one dimensional and Michigan's team was built for this team. Just look at the Lucknut's squad with CJ Stroud and his elite recievers. Michigan is multi dimensional and have an elite defense Washington hasn't seen. 38-10 Michigan.

Please pick Washington. Pleeeaaaase pick Washington. Lol

I think either team can win this game honestly...but 33-27 Washington GEAUX TIGERS

Michigan's offense was built for a team like this. CJ Stroud and his crew were better than Washington and we tuned em up. No way Washington wins this game. Michigan will chew up the clock and wear down their already poor defense, leaving Penix with fewer opportunities let alone time in the pocket to make enough impact plays that matter.

Washington left a lot of points off the board with conservative play calling running the ball in the 4th qtr. Huskies wins 33-30.