Chauncey Billups , true shooting & skill curves | Scoring efficiency (NBA Stats 101, Part 2) 

Your videos make ESPN analysts look like a joke

Probably my most efficient subscription on RU-vid

Anything that highlights Chauncey, I'm here for. One of the most underrated players ever since he doesn't tick the most obvious boxes

Chauncey Billups' avatar out here looking like Steve Harvey

There's a typo on the y-axis at 9:20 - it should say "FG%" instead of true shooting. Also, someone asked how TS% is estimated: You have to go through the play-by-play to add up a player's *actual* true shot attempts (i.e. find the number of and-1s and 3-shot free throws). Since this is cumbersome (and impossible before 1997), the standard estimate is that a free throw is worth 0.44 possessions - this creates the small error for some players who take more/fewer And-1s than predicted. EDIT: 50% on 2s and 33% on 3s do generate a different number of rebounds, but the difference is generally negligible because 3s lead to fewer offensive rebounds than 2s.

A factor I think is important, but always ignored: Some players are the go-to playmakers late in the shot clock. They take shots where the alternative is a 24 second violation. A handful of those per game would have an effect on all of these metrics.

Bruh, this series going to end up being a college course on bball stats. By far the most informative bball videos on youtube. I wish we could clone a few of you for the regular season so we can get in-depth analyses on all the teams and players.

This videos are just so good. A bit difficult sometimes, but really well explained and edited. Best NBA channel material right here.

2 points isn't 2 points. I'll explain it to you later

I came up with the "shoot a 3 or a layup" strategy when i spent way too much time playing nba live as a kid

I cannot stress enough how much I love you videos. Lately ive been intrigued as to how Eric Bledsoe fits as a secondary playmaker next to Giannis despite his lack* of 3pt shooting. Would very much appreciate an analysis into his game. Keep up the great work!

This is awesome. Looking at Chauncey Billup’s shooting slashes you would think he’s like an inefficient scoring guard, but he’s really the opposite. Chauncey has an incredibly high bball IQ, and was an extremely efficient player. Ahead of his time in a sense, didn’t worry about FG% and a large proportion of his shot attempts were 3s which is what.

When a guy scores 60 points on 20 free throws. Nobody says he scored 40 points. They say he scored 60. And that alone is why true shooting percentage is by far the more relevant stat than Field Goal Percentage.

FG% is still an important situational stat, like when you just need a basket. For example, at the end of a quarter, or at the end of a game when it's a 1 point game, when free throws are less likely to be called, you just want someone who can take and make a shot at a good FG%. It doesn't matter at that point that shooting 33% from 3 is equal to shooting 50% from 2, you just need a bucket, so it's very valuable to have a player who can make shots at a good rate from several areas on the floor.

This is why we need to eliminate field goal percentage and separate two threes and paint percentages

I have to say when I saw the video title and the video I was like "Duuhh. That's like super basic knowledge why bother making a video about it?" But seeing the comments and so many people mentionning friends or people they know that don't understand that, I feel like you did a good job taking time to explain it.

This is why Kobe’s FG% is so low but his efficiency is almost the same as MJ in his prime years. Ofc, Kobe’s era did not utilize analytics in this way, but he was a complete shot jacker, indiscriminatory between long 2s, midrange, contested 3s, and long 3s. The fact that Kobe was able to register such a strong efficiency in an era of terrible efficiency and shot selection shows how amazing of a scorer he was. This also shows how efficiency analytics has helped James Harden and Stephen Curry realize their full value in today’s game of pace and space and TS efficiency.

When I think the videos can't get any better... This magic statistics wizard drops. Best content on RU-vid right now

What an excellent channel. I truly enjoy your videos. So much knowledge. I love the individual player profiles. The one on Steph Curry in the finals taught me something cause I thought he struggled in that game, but his presence really was huge offensively for the team. The Draymond Green’s profile was great and showed his value as a player. Probably your most prescient was the one on the Greek freak which really detailed the holes in his passing and vision which ended up being exploited by the raptors.

I've known about these stats for years because of their accessibility in 2k, but you explain them sooooo much better! My mathematician heart is fluttering

Great video! When I played in college almost 11 years ago, a video like this would have been perfect in educating teammates who thought they should have been playing more or getting more touches. These numbers speak volumes to what type of player you are. Back then everything was "real feel" and it's impossible to tell a person they don't mix with certain units on the court by just a flat FG percentage or other flat statistics. I will use this video to help educate my high school players. Thanks for your great content.

Great work, Ben. I love the normal distributions, of course. The clarity is spot-on as always.

FG% is still useful. If you think of scoring like investing, you'd probably want consistent scoring with low rate of returns more often than volatile scoring with a slightly higher rate of return. In short, there are scenarios when they additional point from a trey is far less valuable than the assurance of getting a bucket in that posession. The most obvious example is when you attempt a game-winner in a tie situation or you're down by one, but scenarios aren't limited to that. That's why points per shot is a useful stat, but a distribution analysis is important, too.

Absolutely geeking out at these videos. Thank you. Can’t wait for more

this is by far the best basketball channel on YT

Best basketball analysis channel ever, perhaps only rivaled my coach Nick

bravo! i’m sad at the end of each episode. truly a wonderful program. thanks.

You release such fascinating content. I always leave for podcasts and videos feeling smarter than when I entered.

Man you're a GENIUS! I love those kind of videos!

hours of research condensed to around 10 minutes I love it

You have my favorite videos on RU-vid! Thanks so much for this content

thank you for all your videos fuelling both my nerdiness and basketball fandom

Thank you for this! Sometimes it’s hard to follow all the different metrics you use in your vids so this was very helpful

I love this channel so much, so much great content. I'm a basketball nerd, so this kind of stuff is so interesting to me. Definitely gonna support on Patreon when I get paid lol

I love that your videos make so much sense keep it up

You give new understanding to analytics and why it's taken over the game !!!📚🏀📚🏀🙌

best hoops content on the web. thank you sir!!!

This reminds me about MJ, and in particular that fourth quarter in Utah in game 6 '98. Chicago should not have been in a position to 'steal' that game, as Jordan had shot 2-8 from the field. But even after Stockton hit that 3, they were only down 3. Because Michael had made 4 trips to the line and made all 8 shots. So 25% FG shooting becomes 50% (6-12) on scoring efficiency. And then we all remember what MJ did on those final few plays.

Love the videos, keep it up!!

I am soooooo glad you did this! I am a huge Pistons fan and in the mid 2000s during their run I'd always tell my non Pistons fans that Billups was sorely overlooked and underrated. Later in his career he got his due somewhat, but he is a statistical darling who could also play D. People may find this ridiculous but I think he is worthy of HoF consideration, maybe worthy period. He was the engine of a title team that was dominant for years as well as being their most consistent offensive threat and clutch player. The 'Stons slow tempo deflated his stats, not his fault.

Wow, great video man! 👍🏻

The issue with living and dying by the 3 is that in close moments, you are more likely to make a close 2 point FG than a 22 foot three pointer. So on moments where there is 30 seconds left and down by 1. You are far better off going for a lay up. Almost everything you said is correct, except distinguishing at critical moments when YOU MUST get a bucket. It is that reason the Rockets always failed late in close games. Go for 3’s. But when you must score, go for the easy close 2

Amazing video, I'll just refer to this video in the future when I am trying to have an argument about efficiency .

You could be making this up, I'd still listen and enjoy. Thanks for the videos!

Stats 101 is my favorite show

What a channel.

I absolutely loved the early 2000s Pistons. The run in 2004 is something I'll never forget, and when it comes to experiences I've had as a fan it is probably tops. It also probably has something to do with the fact I was also in college and we'd have giant victory celebrations afterwards. That said, it was so satisfying seeing a team I had suffered with for years get closer over a few years and then break through and win when nobody wanted them to or gave them a shot. I think the Raptors probably had a similar experience, though their big game changing trade for Leonard netted them a top 3-5 player whereas Detroit's big trade for Sheed was obviously hugely important though he was not a MVP level candidate like Kawhi. I would pay good money for a Thinking Basketball breakdown on the 2001-2006 era Pistons (the Ben Wallace years)

These are the best videos......ever

Can you do a video on the NBA before and after the illegal defense rule that prohibited zone defense was eliminated from the NBA? A lot of people seem to forget about this rule and how easy it made it for players to score in the 80's and 90's. It also highlights just how good some of the defenders where in that era. The rule was eventually replaced with the 3 second illegal defense rule and the elimination of hand checking but it appears this has done very little to increase scoring. In reality the elimination of the illegal zone defense rule has probably impacted the game as much as analytics have and is one of the key cogs that have driven the NBA to a fast paced outside scoring game. I feel like this would be right in your wheel house. I honestly believe this rule change has helped stars of the past keep their tags as greats and has somewhat diminished just how good some of the players are in today's modern NBA. I think analyzing this rule change plays a major part in proving that today's NBA isn't a softer more star friendly league. instead I believe that this proves that this is just a miss conception. Can you imagine the scoring totals if guys like Kobe, LeBron, Harden and Durant didn't have to ever play against a single zone defense?

Great work.

Amazing video

Great video

Wonder when NBA finally do away with FG% in the stat line and use TS% now. It's not that complicated. Guys like Curry and Harden would be even more appreciated by the casual nba fan

Would be interesting if you also talked about how shot difficulty interacts with efficiency. Id imagine that theres a niche for guys who specialize in low percentage, high difficulty shots that can rescue an otherwise broken possession. Like dwade for instance.

Awesome thanks!

I'd be really glad to see an analysis of Carmelo's game.

awesome video! can you do one on PER?

Ι would love to see a video just about curry or durant using the metrics shown here !

Thank you!!!

At last someone says it fg is a false stat. Now we have efg and ts

Okay so with True shooting if they shoot a pair of free throws that’s counts as 1 shooting attempt, I love that. That’s what I came here for and this video is beautiful

This is great

That Ben Wallace face though.

Love all your videos, on the topic of efficiency, I would love to see an analysis of whether kobe was inefficient or not

Great latest podcast episode! I think AD and Kawhi should be switched, I think you often circumvent your own criteria when ranking AD. I'm nitpicking but it was a great listen, hope you make more like it!

can you please make a video about allen iversons efficiency

Wallace's depiction in this vid looks like Sho'nuff from The Last Dragon.

I love the probability curve and how the math works

nice video

I see the conversation about scoring a lot of points at low efficiency as: if another teammate had taken that shot instead, would they have generated more points? So if the other Sixers were even worse scorers, than Iverson taking a shot on that possession even on 41% FG would lead to more points per possession than the alternative. If you have a more efficient means of getting points on your team, like if your team has a hyper-efficient dunker like Gobert or a deadly spot-up shooter or just better offensive talent in general, then that would be a more efficient way to generate points. Just number of shot attempts don't account for that. Assists only count times you actually decide to pass, do so successfully, and have it lead to points. I wonder if there's a way to account for this. Of course there's no perfect way, but some approximation. eFG% or TS% (or PPP) differential between the player and the rest of the team? Maybe even simplified further into a single shooting stat by weighing "attempts" upward or downward accordingly. That would penalize more shots being taken if the team is efficient and reward it if the team is inefficient. Something like (I'm just spitballing here) for a player X: [TS% of X] / [PPP of the rest of the team], or So if for example Iverson had 45% TS, and the rest of the Sixers scored 0.9 PPP, this adjusts upward to 50% team-adjusted shooting (let's just call it that and use TAS). If another player X had 45% TS, but the rest of his team scores 1.1 PPP, this pulls their team-adjusted shooting down to 41%. A lot of the math and statistics choices here probably aren't right, many of the coefficients would have to be different, but I'm trying to see if I can find some intuition for a method that might be useful. Maybe with some coefficient (number here just made up) for how even one more pass continuing the possession still has some risk. [TS% of X] / [0.9*(PPP of the rest of the team)] For X with 45% TS and the team scoring 0.9 PPP, this moves this new TAS statistic to 45/(0.9*0.9) = 56% TAS For X with 45% TS and the team scoring 1.1 PPP, this doesn't move TAS much, to 45/(0.9*1.1) = 45.5% TAS Other possibilities: differential between the player and next most efficient scorer on the team? Differential between player's TS%, and the TS% of the team (measured in offensive rating / 2) when he's not on the floor? All of the options are flawed though, like how numbers when off the court might be skewed by second units. Differential between player's TS% and the most used line-up not including them's TS%? More complicated and maybe less useful: [TS% of X] / [0.9*(offensive rating of most-used line-up without X)] With a lower adjusting coefficient here for the higher risk of turnovers from a harder pass or more successive passes needed to get the ball to the next most efficient option: [TS% of X] / [0.8*(PPP of next most efficient player after X)] If Gobert has a PPP of 1.36 and Mitchell has a 54% TS, Mitchell could be 54/(0.8*1.36) = still 54%, so Mitchell shooting is about as efficient as him moving the ball forward to try get the team to end a possession with Gobert. All of these would be really flawed though but I wonder if any could be a useful little stat to add another layer of context. I don't even know if any of this makes sense by now actually, I need to go get my coffee. Thanks for your videos, they're fascinating and beautifully made and does make keep me Thinking Basketball.

Hey Thinking Basketball. Could you make a video on whether the small difference in percentage points on 3 pointers really makes a difference? Like league average is 36% on 3 pt FG but if you shoot at 39% plus, you are considered to be good. I can't see those 3 percentage points making a difference unless you have James Harden volume.

Great video but it's missing the effect of USG% when determining offensive quality. Hopefully in another video?

I spend a very unhealthy amount of my time pulling my hair out trying to sate my very unhealthy obsession with comparing basketball players and teams both current and past..... thank you sir I now believe there may be a god after all. I can die a completed man.

Can you do one episode about "Did analytics ruin modern basketball?"

Good day, is it possible for u to do a J. Kidd vs Cp3 comparison. I really enjoy these

U should do a video on the scoring of Collin sexton a underrated pg who is putting up 22 ppg on crazy efficient scoring shooting 47% and 38%from 3

cool vid

Do RPM and RAPM next. They're pretty complex

Billups contributions were beyond efg. I think he also was also a high vol. Ft shooter with a high pct. Close to 90. Add that to his defense and assists and like non fancy stockton he created foul trouble substitutions and time outs . See 2004.

do something on the pacers

I LOOOVVEEEEE YOU

Ben, maybe I missed it, but I'm wondering if you can explain the difference between Actual TS% and Estimated TS%? I don't understand how there are 2 different numbers.

Can you upload more often

Great. Now I can tell people than my .007 Shooting Percentage is an analytics misstep and that I'm actually Larry Bird in the rough.

Does true shooting percentage counting metrics differentiate the different types of free-throw attempts: -Free throws off of made (and 1) or missed (2 or 3 FT) shot attempts --> 1 attempt not 2 -Free throws off of foul without taking a shot attempt --> 1 attempt not 0 For example, 3:32 Here the player had 18 free throws. However, if you consider that he had 9 scoring attempts on those free throws, then he would have been fouled without attempting a shot all 9 times and during his 5 shot attempts (2 made and 3 missed), he wouldn't have been fouled. The reasoning behind this is that if he had missed a shot but gotten and made 2 free throws due to being fouled on that shot, then ultimately he should have a 100% true shooting percentage on that shot since his 2pts resulted off of one action (shot attempt) and no rebound was needed to obtain these points. Instead, by your counting metrics, he would have a 50% true shooting percentage since he would have 2 points / 2 shot attempts (a 2pt FG and a pair of free throws). However, this is inaccurate since these points are the result of one action and therefore his true shooting percentage should be 100% for that shot.

Would have been nice to use a more modern day example for this like James Harden and Clint Capela.

Basketball examined showed me that true shooting % is better than eFG%

Which team has the highest TS% AND highest OR in 9:29 ??

What about multiply volume with efficiency?

which is why james harden is one of the most efficient scorers of all time, sitting in the top 15 of career true shooting

For the first time I understand analytics... And it makes a lot of sense... Now I'm pretty sure Melo is never getting that contract

Do a Ben wallace video

Curry just averaged 32ppg with 65.5 true shooting percentage. Unheard of. No one, not even MJ, has come close to that level of efficiency. With Curry, there is no curve. It deserves it's own video.

Do a video of Steph Curry's historic unanimous MVP season and his numbers

Let's play the "guess who the team in the upper right corner of the 'team ts% and overall offense' graph is" game! Ding ding! That's right, it's the warriors! You probably didn't even have to look at the graph!

Fantasy NBA analysts will beg to differ.

so in essence, True Shooting Percentage is a weighted average of all ways to score points over total possessions.

Just makes me think of the video where you mentioned that in 2016, Curry led the league in both volume & efficiency

Why not do for meassure "points attempted/points scored"

Can you please analyze Damian lillard.