@Darryl Davis I don't know how credible your stories are, but I know that last part is a damn lie. You hear the term "extra pass" at least a dozen times on every NBA broadcast.
You are really onto something here with your metric breakdowns. I've never been a fan of metrics. To me metrics don't fully encapsulate what happens on the basketball court and only illustrate part of the picture. You breakdown the weaknesses in standard metrics and address what's being glanced over, then find a metric that addresses the flaws within the standard metrics. Keep up the good work. I hope that coaches begin to adopt your way of looking at stats and evaluating players. It can be very helpful. I still can't get on board with open mid range shots being a bad idea though. :-P
The the midrange is only bad in general, but if you only got a couple seconds on the shot clock, a midrange is a higher percentage shot than a clock violation. It's simply one of your last options, not one of the first several.
I see where you’re coming from, but I have found a lot of good sources on basketball metrics that focus on the flaws of using a given stat. One of the best blogs, although it no longer is updated , is skepticalsportsanalysis
Mid range is a good and important shot to be good offensive player. If you make mid range shots then you open game. If someone keeps making mid range the defense must come to him. Which means he pulls defense which creates openings
When showing Kobe and how he drew people to him and could pass out to open shooters even if not directly it shows how hard it is to measure Curry. He doesn't even need to ball to generate such attention and drag players around. But how do you even measure that
ye, but Kobe had (over that) the skills and height to score anywhere and over double or tripleteams, what Curry could never do. And yet Kobe never had the recognition of that "gravity" as Curry does. Strangely. Maybe he was just too much and was easier to watch away from his greatness
@@JackFury yes but mostly can't overcome it and HAS to pass, instead Kobe could score AND pass in those situations. I hope some days the disrespect on Kobe would stop. Luckily someone is starting to understand how actually good he was, like this channel here
@@Eliras24 Kobe did not pull people as far out as Curry though. Curry has such extended range and a quick release he scares defenders into giving him an inch. Different kind of threat But my comment was not to compare. Different types of players and one on one you'd rather face Curry ever time. Just commenting on the positives a player brings you cannot measure in a stat line
Kevin Wall We ain’t talking about the best players. They are talking about the best playmakers, and you know damn well Wilt and Russell weren’t playmakers. 😂
Darryl Davis Assists averaged don’t mean anything and I don’t know about you but the rules of NBA have changed a hell of a lot since then. Calm tf down as if I attacked you god damn 😂
Which is what is explained here. Without context 5 assists careerwise doesnt seem crazy outstanding(it actually is for a SG) but if you lack the context of not just how he got his assists or how him having the ball made the team more dangerous instantly, but also factors as him playing in the triangle offense system that heavily limits high assists for a player but increases assists opportunities per player. Someone like Curry is an severly underrated playmaker for the exact same reason. Known for shooting in a system in which the offense flows through everybody, but preferbly ending in the hands of the main option if nothing opens up. They mostly start the play or end it, which in a triangle offense motion system, makes it incredibly good to rack up 5-7 assists.
Always thought I understood that there was a difference between pass first guys and assist guys. Thank you for quantifying it, keep doing what you’re doing man.
Manu is a once in a lifetime kind of player. My absolute favorite guy to watch dribbling a ball. Sometimes, he just goes off, but he always tries to create a situation. His swift moves, the eurostep and his creativity were off the charts. Yet, he was never selfish or forcing anything. But he was THE guy when the Spurs needed a bucket.
Thanks for your advise! In fact, I am a senior in high school now and I am applying for a statistics major. Really appreciate the suggestions from you guys and I will definitely go check out that app.
I always thought a stat like this would show how much better Dirk was at creating open shots for his teammates then given credit. He often had a ton of Hockey assists if you watched the games.
I really enjoy your deeper take on statistics. I work in business development and performance. I reference you to my colleagues; as to the way statistics can be misleading and overly effected by factors. It's an opportunity to look deeper into the numbers, with an eye toward how they interact. If you ever read this comment, Thank You.
Teacher : What is the Pythagorean thereom Me : How the hell should I know, I'm not going use all this extra math shit when I'm an Adult anyways. I know how to count. Thinking Basketball : Oops !
well to be fair no Pythagorean theorem was used in this video, but statistical measurements (too many to list) were used(also sorry to destroy the joke ;;D)
@@lionelsenga3752 The joke just means that Thinking Basketball makes a good deal of us feel like we should have payed more attention in our are advanced math classes. It doesn't literally mean you have to know what a pythagorean theorem is to watch. the vid or fully understand it ... Or that they used it to get any of these numbers. Just means they use hella math and you gotta pay attention. I could have said "what's the square root of Pi" or any dumb shit that and got just as many likes. Good you know your math though.
This channel is honestly fantastic. Not only is the content unique and extremely informative, the man knows how to teach. The professionalism shines through in every video.
Well, yeah, hasn't Rondo been accused of assist hunting for most of his career? There was a stretch where he had the longest active streak of double digit assists and he kept forcing passes just to keep it going.
Need to show this video to any fan who says Ben Simmons or Lebron are turnover machines... Lebron and Ben Simmons make those elite passes which have a higher value.
I'm not sure what Simmons does but LeBron doesn't throw a ton of "elite" passes. Well at least he wasn't in recent years. He was mostly a drive and kick passer to an open 3 point shooter. Now he does occasionally have "elite" pass here and there but he isn't doing this on the regular like say a Steve Nash was.
@@tonyschimmoeller4439 One of the things both have in common is their ability to create open 3 pt opportunities. Which other that layups are the most important and. "efficient" shots in basketball Ben does it more with transition opportunities while LeBron is better at it in half court possessions, LBJ is the better offensive player and through that creates for his teammates through that. I'm a Sixers fan so I obviously watch Ben Simmons all the time. He has an advantage with his height to see over defenses but his "gift" and value as a passer is he knows how to "throw people open" the way a great quarterback does his recievers in football. He actually has great vision and anticipation especially in transition and open court opportunities. He can be lazy with his passing and decision making overall and he'll go for the flashy pass at times too often(there are times where making the "simple pass" is part of "winning basketball"). Not to mention, he's usually the primary ball handler on a "pass heavy" team and that leads itself to a high volume of assists and turnovers so stats have to be examined from that context wrt Ben Simmons. But he's a great passer nevertheless and remember he just turned 23 years old and is about to enter his 3rd year in the NBA. Can't and shouldn't be compared to LBJ. Not fair to either of them but LBJ is the better offensive creator easily but Ben doesn't get enough credit for his own play making and "gravity" especially as a passer and finishing at the rim/in the paint/restricted area because everyone focuses on his flaws so heavily.
@@tonyschimmoeller4439 Steve Nash and LBJ have different games and play different positions. Steve Nash is/was "the prototype" size wise as a PG. He "needed" the dribble, rather crafty dribbling, to create scoring opportunities for his teammates so his dribbling was his "gravity." LBJ because of his size, and scoring "gravity"(especially in the paint/restricted area) leads to scoring opportunities without him needing the dribble as much as Steve Nash to create open looks. The ability to create open looks especially 3 pt opportunities and execute with "the right pass" is "elite passing" and since LBJ has always been a "willing passer" especially in comparison to players his size and position(remember he's 6'8" 270 lbs and a POINT FORWARD) and doesn't "need" the dribble to "see" those passes allow turn "simple" passes into "elite" passes and he's a great passer BTW who knows the game inside and out and anticipates those looks happening before it happens. Since Ben Simmons was mentioned: There's a video on RU-vid from SBNation, called "Simmons, The Magician." Yea, very hyperbolic especially since he was just a month into his rookie season at the time. But it's actually a great video. In the video, it compared how the "elite" point guards or primary ball handler needs a high volume of dribbles before getting an assist. Ben Simmons, partly because of the offense that he plays in but most importantly because of his height being able to see over a defense doesn't use or "need" the same volume of dribbles to get assists and his assists generally happen earlier in a possession than the "average" point guard. The catch 22 with Ben, because he doesn't "need" the dribble to create those scoring opportunities, it leads him to having bad habits like "picking up his dribble" which actually limits him from seeing and creating more scoring opportunities especially in the half court whereas Steve Nash is one of the greatest ball handlers/dribblers of all time and knew how to "keep his dribble" like all the great "crafty" point guards in NBA history creating those elite scoring opportunities and passes that general public see. So what I'm saying is that LBJ and Nash were/are "elite" passers. Their games are different and how they use it to create scoring opportunities with their passing is different.
When I play NBA 2K I have around 4 to 5 turnovers but because I make most of my turnovers from passes my team overall as a lower turnover rate because I make all the mistakes and the rest get the most efficient shots despite the fact that my stats look bad from turnovers I still make the passes because the team benefits from it more and your video really showed well the analytics behind that because I always felt like I should not have a high number of turnovers but also even with a high turnover rate I also was a very tenacious and skilled defender meaning from the 4 to 5 turnovers maybe 2 of them actually result in a score for the other team.
The reason why you are one of the best basketball youtubers out there. You're even better than the majority of the so called "experts" in espn or other networks.
You sir, are an absolute genius. Thanks for consistently putting out awesome, interesting content. I'm not someone who really understands metrics and stats, but your videos make everything a lot more clear!
Why are we discrediting Rondo?? Hitting a shooter, on time/in rhythm, to their shooting/hand target is A SKILL IN ITSELF. Stockton had a ton of assists where Karl Malone caught ball and shot a fadeaway jumper
Wilt had a lot of these "Rondo assists". Jokic's assists are more like Nash's or Magic's. THAT'S why Jokic is the best passing big man in NBA history; sure, maybe he hasn't led the league in assists (yet) like Wilt did, but the assists he makes are consistently some of the most difficult, creative, and valuable in the league.
Yup. Wilt was no doubt a very good passer but most of his assists came from his scoring prowess and size so after drawing doubles and triple teams, there would obviously be a an open man . Jokic ‘s assist come more from his vision than his scoring ability.
This is such a great video! It really annoys me when people bring up assists out of context, especially when comparing players like Curry and Westbrook. Westbrook's a better passer, in my opinion, but Curry's gravity and scoring threat create way better opportunities for his teammates, but some people still have the nerve to say Westbrook's better at everything than Curry other than shooting (not even kidding)
You do know Westbrook on an average generates the highest number of points from his passes right? Only LeBron James and Ben Simmons come close to the numbers. Last year he literally generated a potential assist every 3 passes which is one of the best in the history of basketball.
Adding actual values of passes and turnovers to rate are needed to be done long ago. You took a historic step towards better stats analyzation like what Luka done for the 20 yr-olds
I love this stat series you should do another. If you ever get into an argument about Kobe's efficiency. Just tell them this: Kobe career in the playoffs: 48EFG% MJ Career Playoffs: 50EFG%
It’s eerie how similar your breakdown of Rondo is to mine circa 2010. I had friends swearing he was the reincarnate of Magic Johnson and I always maintained its not hard to look that way passing it Pierce, KG or Ray
This was a great video. I enjoy seeing stats contextualized, It always irked me when people would levy heaps of praise on Rondo for getting assists that anyone could get, vs. players like Bron or young John Wall that would spoon feed guys wide open looks by drawing the defense and kicking it out. Only wish I could see the season by season metrics and see whether it agrees with my sensibilities of which players are the best passers (Lebron, Jokic, Harden, etc.)
This video downplays Rondo's playmaking ability though. He was elite at the creation part of passing as well. He didn't have the offensive game to attract attention like those you mentioned but he still created shots. In his early years he was more of a facilitate to the guy who creates but that changed as he improved. On a side note, I don't think players that drive and kick are really the best passers. It's easy to pass the ball out to an open player. They may be good playmakers or shot creators but that doesn't mean they are great at passing. I could pass to a wide open player if the entire defense collapses in on me. The best passers are the ones that create lanes that others are unable to create, imo
@@tonyschimmoeller4439 I guess this follows then. Not being a great passer (eye of the needle) doesn't mean you cannot be a great playmaker for your team. But instead of your hand/arm doing the work, you need to drive, or post up, and collapse the D, for the better look for your teammates.
It might have even been on this channel, but something I found very interesting was that there are three kinds of assists for a 3. Round the arc, drive and dish, post up. Throwing the ball around the arc got the least effective 3 point attempt - because Shooter has to twist to get aligned with rim. Drive and dish in between. Post up the most effective - because Shooter is already aligned with rim. So post ups, drive and dish, and mid range game are all still important, despite a simple "3 + layups" mentality that Morey Ball can cause people to assume is its conclusion. Fun times!
I'm sorry but I do not buy the concept of a "Rondo Assist" the way you put it. By that logic Derek Fisher and Mario Chalmers could load up the stat sheet just the same way. Boston's big 3 were well past their prime by Rondo's best years, while today even Draymond Green playing on one of the most stacked teams ever struggles to put up double-digit assists. So even if it's definable as a thing then surely Rondo is still one of the best ever at it?
@Andre Ricardo Bryant No, they couldn't. That's exactly the part I'm not buying. Yall treat it like it's so easy to fill up the stat sheet like that, but Mario is not getting 10 dimes on that Celtics team, full stop, and it's not like nobody else but Rondo is willing to try. Draymond can't even get 10 assists a night playing arguably a bigger role and with even more talent around him. Eric Bledsoe gets about 5 a night playing next to freaking GIANNIS, I can go on but you see what I'm getting at
@Andre Ricardo Bryant bro wtf is this argument lol is Rondo a great passer or not, that is the argument. Because this video seems to be saying that the "Rondo Assist" isn't impressive and therefore Rondo isn't that impressive. Like how stupid do you think all the other coaches are if their gameplan apparently ISNT to pass it to players in a scoring position, and what NBA level PG is stupid enough to NOT take that opportunity regardless of their "role"? Unless they're just determined to take the shot themselves, but you're basically only talking about Kyrie at that point, and we've already seen how stupid Kyrie is...
@Andre Ricardo Bryant Then why aren't they doing it? Did Derek Fisher just hate money playing next to Shaq Kobe Gasol Odom etc? Did Mario Chalmers just not think to pass the ball to Lebron DWade Bosh or Allen, so he can maybe not languish in Europe or wherever? is Pat Beverley just TOO DAMN SCRAPPY for his own good that playing offense is beneath him? is Draymond such a team player that he'd genuinely rather lead the league in hockey assists or whatever other metric? Or maybe just maybe the simplest explanation here is that Rondo is a great if not elite passer?
@Andre Ricardo Bryant "tHe TrIaNgLE wAs BuIlT foR..." Just think about it for a second, do you genuinely believe Phil Jackson was gonna stress out if Fisher balled out on the floor as long as he was hitting open players or Shaq on the low block? Weak PG play is NOT a feature of the triangle lol, that is a roster limitation of those Lakers and Bulls teams that the triangle was able to work around. Put it this way, why did they want Chris Paul so badly if they were just going to have him play a Fisher-type role?
I really appreciate all the theory you put in your videos. I hope you realise how good everything you do. My only gripe is the length of those video, I'd love t to see a 40+ minutes dissecting anything basketball relate.
I've always been in awe of how tremendously efficient Chris Paul has been through his career, for as long as i keep track (might've changed in the meantime), i know he has had highest individual offensive rating of all time , and while that metric is flawed and unreliable, i've been impressed by how under the radar his ridiculous assist to turnover ratio is. Now that i've seen this, i'm curious, how does he stack up compared to some all time great point guards? On that note, i'm really curious where would guys like James Harden and Russell Westbrook stand compared to greats in terms of playmaking, considering they both get a lot of assists and draw defenses with their scoring ability, especially considering that a lot of balls they lose are from sloppy ball handling and driving to the rim without proper control.
Late response to you, but hopefully this helps: www.stitcher.com/podcast/ben-taylor/thinking-basketball-podcast/e/62976890 That's the Thinking Basketball podcast episode about playmakers. He talks about Harden, Westbrook, and Chris Paul in this: he rates CP3 as the 3rd greatest playmaker of all time, behind only Nash and Magic.
I think this says a lot about the progression of the game as of late too. More teams are taking sg/sf/ reallytallandfastpfs and running through them because they generate threat. They force help even if its a little sag off.
The problem that I have with the creation stat is that different coaches have different focuses on double teams. Other teammates also has a great effect. If you look at the example used with Kobe, of course he was going to get double teamed. He was extremely ball dominant and, other than his time with Shaq, he didn’t play with a prolific scorer. Looking at Rondo this way is flawed as there was pierce, Allen, and Garnett on the team. If Rondo was double teamed then one of the other players would be open. This was understood by other teams so Rondo would naturally have less “creation” according to this video. Just like most stats, an adjusted creation stat would need to be created before it could be accurately used to calculate its intended target.
No secret why Lebron and Jokic crushes these types of tests. The low turnover rates despite their load + difficulty of passing + recipient efg% is incredible, and this is all in the half court
Very interesting video. I wonder if you've considered a stat that tracks passes leading to a quality shot that misses. It seems to be that the goal of a good offense is to create high-quality field goal attempts, some of which miss. For example, off a Curry/Green pick and roll Green makes a great pass to Klay for an open corner 3 and it misses, it is still what the offense was looking for, but there doesn't seem to be a stat that tracks offensive execution in that way.
For Rondo, you aren't factoring in many components of his passing. For instance, he's a master at hitting the right shooters to capitalize on 2 for 1 opportunities at the end of quarters. Also, he passes top diff players in different ways, like gaining insane production from Mirotic and Etwan Moore, and also lobbing different kinds of passes to Anthony Davis and lebron James. On Boston, rondo did not need to make risky passes because he had unbelievable shot creators whereas Steve Nash often made "better" passes because he had to.
I wouldn't even go that far. Like the dude hinted at Rondo produced a large portion of assists by simply passing to guys like Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, and Kevin Garnett and watching them produce magic. The more you understand basketball the more you realize Rondo was never that great of a point guard, he's basically Ricky Rubio with great teammates. If you play with transcendent talent they can turn your idle passes into assists but that doesn't make you a plus creator. Rondo's issue has always been his unwillingness to make the "dangerous" passes or the ones that lead to hockey assists, which has always hampered teams that didn't have the elite supporting cast like his early Celtics teams.
Garrett Henze Rondo is an exceptional point guard. He just dosent have the “gravity” to make defenses respect his scoring ability as much as others players do. That’s an indictment on his scoring ability not his passing prowess.
Garrett Henze Both him and Ricky Rubio are elite passers. If playing with good teammates got you a lot of assists, then Derek fisher and Mario chalmers would be getting similar numbers
Stats will not be the only driver of performance as they change with player skills, context, and strategies that work in some environments and not in others. The measurements maybe fine and accurate . Players and coaches may adjust to implement their values but like AI they're subject to breakdown in input same as HAL in 2001 a space odyssey.
he did one in his podcast infact if you scroll through these comments youll find the list however its more just the top playmakers not passers which ben differentiates
I know that this a ridiculously late reply, 3 months after you posted your comment, but Ben has actually done something pretty much like that! Here's the link: backpicks.com/2017/12/11/the-backpicks-goat-the-40-best-careers-in-nba-history/ He basically ignores championships, all-star appearances, All-NBA teams, everything like that, and focuses entirely on the actual play of the person. He compares them for impact, for their floor raising abilities, their 5 year peaks both offensively and defensively, their weaknesses, and their longevity. He admits himself that it's not perfect and that there's still some subjevity in there, but it's a brilliant way to spend an afternoon reading and learning more about the game.
I'm wondering if Chris paul is overrated because of his high Ast/TO ratio. Don't get me wrong. CP3 is a good passer. However, his performances were too stable. By that I mean he rarely had a explosive game like 50pts in playoffs. Is his over conservative style limit his ceiling?
No not really that would be more of john stockton, who despite being oneof the best shooters ever didnt attempt many threes and would often god quarters without shooting to feed teamates at least pual scored and shot threes when he had to
1:06 thank you. Finally someone ever saying that on the 2007-2013 Kobe. He was just the center and scorer of that team. And he made possible easy shots with his gravity much like Curry was doing those days, but while bein 6'6'' and Kobe, so able to create his own shots anyways, even if double teamed (what Curry could never do cause of his hight and lower ability to score anywhere from the court like Kobe)
come to think of it i think thats overlooked by many, including me..he doesnt get assists like lebron cos he doesnt pass to the scorer, but makes it easy for them
I see what your saying but I think u messed up the wording a bit lol. As good as Kobe was Curry has the range to be a threat from literally anywhere in the half court, and tbh maybe even a bit before that. Doesn't make him better than Kobe tho
@@ndog0639 ye i mean ofc they're different, just remembering that back then the game was more into the 3 point range, and from there Kobe always required at least a double team, so the rest of the Lakers were pretty ofter open for money
I think the NBA should start tracking passes to an assist. Like the hockey assist would be interesting to see who would have the most pass to assists in the league.
Huge thunder fan and I feel like passer rating woukd be favorable to russ bc I'm not sure anybody in basketball creates as many good looks strictly off drawing in defenses and making the right play.
