China Economic Boom, US-China Relations, & More! | Global Macro 72

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Alan Dunne welcomes back Louis-Vincent Gave of Gavekal in this episode to delve into the Chinese economic outlook and discuss the broader macro trends. Louis shares his thoughts on whether the Chinese economy and Chinese asset markets are truly at a turning point. They examine the crisis of confidence among Chinese consumers and assess whether recent stimulus measures can help. China’s active industrial policy and desire to grow its share of global manufacturing has been a key policy pillar and Louis examines how sustainable the policy is. The conversation also covers US policy, the prospects for a recession, and how the upcoming US election-particularly a potential Trump victory-could be highly significant for US- China relations and impact bond markets and the US dollar. Louis also gives his take on the structural challenges facing France and Europe, and whether we can expect a recovery in productivity.
#toptraders #investing #trendfollowing
Episode Summary
02:27 - Introduction to Louis Gave
03:50 - Is the Chinese economy experiencing a turning point?
09:20 - Can China restore their foreign capital flow?
13:40 - The state of Chinese fiscal policy
19:12 - A flash point in Chinese overcapacity
24:14 - A commodity catalyst - reflation incoming?
28:46 - Will the U.S experience a recession soon?
36:48 - A fiscal crisis in the U.S?
40:32 - The economic challenges that France faces
43:09 - The state of the European economy
47:20 - Welfare states are falling apart
49:48 - The U.S. election - how will it impact investors?
54:00 - How Trump would handle the current global conflicts
56:59 - Trump interfering with the Fed
59:26 - A weak dollar = pressure on bonds?
01:00:05 - Still bullish on emerging markets?
Full episode can be found here:
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Опубликовано:

21 окт 2024

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Комментарии : 8

@andrewereynolds5840 День назад

Trading is a global 🌎 poker & chess game that is executed thru a long/short auction system (order flow thru bid/ask). Dynamic profession 💎.

@jamespier7801 20 часов назад

the question that enters my mind when I hear LVG speak about China: “Are you hearing yourself at all?” China today is hyper-fragile. If the truly free-market economies ever decided to force China to make the basic choice to operate by the rule of law or exit the Western economy, it would be over.

@AJah-h3d 13 часов назад

What makes you think that free market economies have that leverage? Do you really think that Western companies rely less on trade with China than the other way around?

@joegage1255 11 часов назад

Lol, sure let’s see when that happens. In the meantime my money is on China

@skydragon23101979 10 часов назад

You forgot the fact that China is the factory of the world. Remember Covid during the first few months of China’s shut down you have a lack of almost everything.

@Antiwumao 54 минуты назад

@@AJah-h3d The customer has the power, china is heavily reliant on western consumers. The fun fact is that western governments are raising trade barriers to made in china, while being dwarfed by developing countries, including BRICS members trade restrictions against made in china. BRICS all want to be exporters.